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US President Donald Trump's recent statements threatening Iran have raised concerns about the potential consequences for global power and regional stability. Trump's vow to 'wipe out' Iran has been met with warnings of a potentially catastrophic impact on the region.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has become a focal point in the tensions between the US and Iran. The US has been pressing Iran to open the strait, which has led to a significant escalation in rhetoric between the two nations.Experts warn that such brinkmanship could have far-reaching consequences, potentially reshaping global power dynamics and impacting the stability of the Middle East. The situation remains volatile, with many concerned about the potential for conflict.Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, provides insight into the complexities of the situation and the potential implications for US foreign policy.

As the clock ticked down to President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the six‑week Middle East conflict teetered on the brink of a far more devastating escalation.Trump’s rhetoric had escalated dramatically, with his Truth Social posts warning that the United States would unleash strikes capable of “decimating every bridge and power plant in Iran” and that “a whole civilisation will die tonight.” Legal experts labeled the language as bordering on a genocidal threat.Amid the rising tension, a series of rapid developments unfolded on Tuesday:12:06 GMT – Trump announced a plan to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, promising total destruction of bridges and power facilities.15:21 GMT – Iranian media confirmed that US strikes hit Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil‑export hub, but reported no significant damage.15:40 GMT – In the UN Security Council, China and Russia vetoed a Bahraini resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing the draft was biased against Tehran.16:54 GMT – Qatar’s defence ministry reported a successful missile interception, while the United Arab Emirates warned of a barrage of missile and drone attacks.18:23 GMT – Iran’s envoy to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, signalled a “step forward” after a “critical, sensitive stage,” praising Pakistan’s “positive and productive” peace efforts.19:17 GMT – Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed to Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks, urging Tehran to keep the Strait open as a goodwill gesture.20:25 GMT – Iran warned it would target US and Gulf‑allied energy infrastructure, threatening to block regional oil and gas supplies for years.20:41 GMT – Joint US‑Israeli airstrikes struck the Amirkabir Petrochemical Plant in Mahshahr, Iran, prompting local assessments of damage.With less than ninety minutes remaining, diplomatic channels intensified. Pakistani officials, including the military chief Asim Munir, facilitated talks that culminated in a two‑week, double‑sided cease‑fire announced by Trump at 22:45 GMT. The United States claimed to have received a “workable” 10‑point proposal from Tehran.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly confirmed the truce, stating Iran would honor it provided attacks on its territory ceased. Sharif then invited both Iranian and US delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations aimed at a permanent settlement.Early Wednesday, Trump’s tone shifted dramatically. In a Truth Social post he hailed the cease‑fire as a potential “Golden Age for the Middle East,” celebrating the pause in hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.The episode underscores how last‑minute diplomacy, spearheaded by Pakistan, averted a catastrophic escalation and opened a narrow window for a broader peace process in a region long mired in conflict.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Iran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz and talks set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agreement was reached after a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and pressure from China.Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured for two weeks through coordination with the country's armed forces. Under the agreement, Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge transit fees on passing ships, with Tehran planning to use the revenue for post-war reconstruction.The ceasefire was agreed upon just an hour before US President Donald Trump's deadline to escalate the conflict expired. Trump's move followed a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister, who urged Washington to extend its deadline for a deal and called on Iran to reopen the strait. The breakthrough came after talks with Pakistan's leadership, which had pushed for a ceasefire.Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan, which includes lifting sanctions, creating a war-loss fund, a potential US troop withdrawal from the Gulf, and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium in exchange for a pledge not to build nuclear weapons. However, it is unclear whether the US has agreed to any of these proposals.The ceasefire has triggered street celebrations in Tehran and Baghdad, with Iranian leaders declaring the conflict is ending 'on Iran's terms'. However, some citizens remain skeptical, warning the US and Israel may be using the pause to 'buy time' and regroup.The agreement has also had an impact on the global economy, with crude prices falling below $100 after Trump's announcement. However, analysts remain cautious, with markets in 'wait-and-see mode' as a 'big gap' remains in negotiations.

During Donald Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, Giorgia Meloni was the only European leader invited, underscoring a brief period of close personal and diplomatic ties between Italy’s right‑wing government and the new U.S. administration. A month earlier she had been photographed sharing a private conversation with Trump at the Élysée Palace while President Emmanuel Macron celebrated the reopening of Notre‑Dame. From the outset of Trump’s second term, the Italian premier was hailed by the U.S. president as a “real live wire” and the European ally who could help “straighten out the world.” Meloni embraced the role, describing Trump as a “brilliant man” and promising to "make the West great again" together. That camaraderie has now eroded. In the wake of the US‑Israeli military action against Iran, Meloni told reporters during a Gulf‑region visit that "when we don’t agree, we must say it", explicitly rejecting the war. Her stance was reinforced a week earlier when Italy denied U.S. bombers permission to refuel at a southern base. Political analysts note that Meloni’s shift marks a decisive break from Trump’s agenda. Roberto D’Alimonte, a political‑science professor at Luiss University, warned that her earlier attempt to act as a bridge between Trump and European allies has become a “liability” she now seeks to repair. Public opinion reflects the change. Recent polls show a solid majority of Italians oppose the Iran war, and support for Trump in Italy has plunged from 35 % to just 19 %. The backlash also manifested in a recent referendum on judicial reform, where 61 % of voters aged 18‑34 rejected Meloni’s proposal—a defeat analysts link more to dissatisfaction with her foreign‑policy alignment than to the reform itself. Beyond politics, the conflict threatens Italy’s economy. As the EU’s second‑largest natural‑gas consumer—accounting for roughly 40 % of its energy mix—Italy is feeling the impact of soaring energy prices caused by the near‑total shutdown of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Italy now projects only a 0.5 % growth rate for 2026‑27, down from earlier forecasts, while the national statistics office reported that Italy’s fiscal deficit has breached the EU’s 3 % ceiling, limiting fiscal flexibility ahead of next year’s elections. Despite these pressures, Meloni has not completely abandoned the United States. In March she declined Trump’s request to dispatch Italian warships to the Strait of Hormuz, aligning with other European nations, yet she stopped short of condemning the US‑led operation outright. Experts argue that Meloni’s approach is deliberately cautious. “She is pragmatic and politically skilled,” D’Alimonte said. “She will continue to balance criticism of Trump’s aggressive foreign policy with the need to preserve strategic ties, moving step‑by‑step toward a stronger European alignment without burning bridges.”

Celebrations erupted in Tehran after officials announced a two‑week ceasefire with the United States, creating a window for diplomatic talks aimed at de‑escalating the regional conflict.Iran consented to suspend hostilities, with negotiations slated to begin on Friday in Pakistan. President Donald Trump pledged to halt military operations provided Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor. Iran’s foreign minister added that safe passage through the strait will be coordinated with Iranian armed forces throughout the truce.The breakthrough followed a direct appeal by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who urged Trump to extend his negotiation deadline and called on Iran to restore strait access.Iranian officials framed the ceasefire as a “victory”, asserting that their preconditions for talks were accepted and that Trump’s acknowledgment of progress on key disputes validates Tehran’s stance. They emphasized that national unity, patience, and military resilience were decisive factors.In their assessment, the earlier U.S.–Israeli strategy of targeting Iranian leadership failed, while the ensuing conflict demonstrated Iran’s capacity to sustain prolonged military operations.Trump, speaking to AFP, described the agreement as a “total and complete victory”, insisting that Iran’s uranium stockpiles would be “perfectly taken care of” under the deal and crediting China for facilitating the negotiations.Despite the truce, Democratic lawmakers announced they will continue impeachment efforts against Trump, condemning his rhetoric toward Iran as “genocidal” and “unhinged.”

Djibouti, a country with a population of less than a million people and no significant natural resources, has become a crucial hub for foreign military bases. The nation's strategic location at the entrance to the Red Sea, a vital maritime chokepoint through which roughly 12 percent of global maritime trade passes daily, has made it an attractive location for global powers.The country's President, Ismail Omar Guelleh, has leveraged Djibouti's strategic importance to advance his own aims, welcoming bases from the US, China, France, Japan, and Italy. These countries pay significant fees for the privilege of hosting their bases, with the US paying $65 million annually, France $30 million, China $20 million, and Italy and Japan over $3 million each.The Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a narrow corridor barely 30 kilometers wide, is a critical passage for global trade and communication cables. The region's instability, particularly with the US and Israel at war with Iran, has heightened Djibouti's importance. Federico Donelli, author of 'Power Competition in the Red Sea,' notes that Djibouti sits at the center of many global interests, including trade, shipping, and fiber optic connectivity.Djibouti's base-for-cash model is part of a broader development strategy, including significant infrastructure investment from Chinese firms and a new railway linking landlocked Ethiopia to the coast. However, the country's economic benefits have not trickled down to its citizens, with official unemployment near 40 percent and over one in five people living in extreme poverty.The opposition leader, Daher Ahmed Farah, has criticized Guelleh's rule, stating that the country's strategic position and hosting of military bases have not benefited the Djiboutian people. The US embassy has warned Americans to avoid areas near Camp Lemonnier, citing threats against US interests, while Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh has expressed concerns about the Iran war risks pushing Djibouti into deeper economic uncertainty.

The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with talks to finalize a peace deal set to begin in Pakistan's Islamabad on Friday. The truce, announced by US President Donald Trump, will see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor through which a fifth of the world's oil supply passes.Countries around the world have welcomed the development, with many urging a lasting peace in the region. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supported Trump's decision, while also noting that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, where Israeli forces have launched a ground invasion and are fighting with the Iran-aligned Hezbollah.Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the news of the ceasefire but stressed the need for full commitment to the deal to achieve a lasting resolution. Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the ceasefire represents a very important opportunity for negotiations, diplomacy, and constructive dialogue.The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the announcement and called on all parties to abide by the terms of the ceasefire. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said Tokyo welcomes the news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran as a positive move.Indonesia's Foreign Ministry called on Iran and the US to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and diplomacy of each side. Malaysia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the ceasefire marks a significant development and serves as a crucial step towards de-escalating tensions and restoring peace and stability to the Middle East.Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong issued a joint statement welcoming the news and expressing their hopes that the deal will lead to a long-lasting resolution. New Zealand's Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters said his government welcomes the news of a ceasefire, although many concerns remain.