Breaking AI & Tech News Analyzed

This week Anthropic revealed that its latest AI system, dubbed Mythos, is so powerful that the company will not make it publicly available, arguing that the potential risks outweigh commercial incentives.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent convened senior banking executives to discuss the implications of the model, underscoring growing governmental concern over advanced AI capabilities.In the United Kingdom, Reform MP Danny Kruger wrote to the government urging an immediate dialogue with Anthropic, warning that Claude Mythos could pose "catastrophic cybersecurity risks" to the nation.Critics such as AI researcher Gary Marcus questioned the hype, suggesting that Anthropic’s co‑founder Dario Amodei may possess strong technical skills but is "graduated from the same school of hype and exaggeration" as OpenAI’s Sam Altman.Beyond the policy debate, Anthropic has mounted a striking media offensive. The startup secured a 10,000‑word profile in the New Yorker, two feature pieces in the Wall Street Journal, and a Time magazine cover that placed founder Amodei alongside the Pentagon and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.Co‑founder Jack Clark and Amodei appeared on separate New York Times podcasts, fielding questions about machine consciousness and the model’s potential to "rip through the economy." Their "resident philosopher" even discussed with the WSJ whether Claude, Anthropic’s commercial product used for cryptocurrency trading and missile‑target designation, possesses a "sense of self."Anthropic’s public‑relations lead, Danielle Ghiglieri, celebrated the coverage on LinkedIn, describing the Time cover as a "mad dash" that finally let the company tell its own story.However, the company’s PR triumphs have not been without missteps. In early April, Anthropic inadvertently released part of Claude’s internal source code, though it assured that no customer data or credentials were exposed.Experts remain skeptical about the unverified claims surrounding Mythos. Dr. Heidy Khlaaf of the AI Now Institute warned that the vague marketing language could be an attempt to attract investment without substantive scrutiny.Cybersecurity specialist Jameison O’Reilly acknowledged the model’s novelty but downplayed Anthropic’s assertion of discovering "thousands of zero‑day vulnerabilities," noting that in a decade of offensive operations, zero‑days were rarely needed to achieve objectives.Anthropic also faces operational constraints. The firm has imposed usage caps on its popular Claude model and now requires customers to purchase additional compute capacity for third‑party tools, suggesting that infrastructure limitations may be a practical reason for withholding Mythos.As the race to dominate the emerging AI market intensifies, Anthropic’s strategy appears to blend genuine safety concerns with a calculated publicity push, positioning Mythos as a strategic signal that the company remains "open for business" while keeping the technology under tight control.

The online prediction market platform Polymarket has seen a surge in users betting on global events, including war and politics. With over $500,000 staked on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka, Ukraine, and millions more bet on the US-Iran conflict, the platform's influence is growing.Users, often anonymous and operating in groups on messaging apps like Discord, debate and strategize on how to profit from these events. Some critics argue that this gamification of war is immoral and can lead to manipulation of broader markets.Polymarket views itself as a source of truth, providing data on the future by allowing the public to bet on it. The platform has gained attention from major investors, including the Intercontinental Exchange, which has invested up to $2bn.However, concerns arise about the platform's decision-making process, which relies on an anonymous group of people holding a cryptocurrency token called UMA. This has led to disputes over the outcome of events and accusations of corruption.Experts warn that Polymarket's influence could extend beyond the platform, potentially manipulating larger markets and affecting institutions and pension funds.

Ben Delo, a British billionaire convicted in the US for failing to implement adequate anti-money-laundering controls in his cryptocurrency business, has donated £4m to Reform UK, the party founded by Nigel Farage. Delo, who is now based in Hong Kong, made the donation since the start of the year, before the government's cap on donations to political parties by British citizens living abroad.Delo, 42, who was pardoned by Donald Trump last year, is moving back to the UK and therefore will not in future be subject to the new rules for donors. He explained his motivations for turning to Reform UK, saying England was his home and that “the biggest obstacle to national recovery is the entrenched self-deception of our elites”.In his article for the Telegraph, Delo wrote that he had donated £4m to help Nigel Farage build Reform UK into a “genuine alternative party of government”. He cited his dissatisfaction with the current political culture, stating that “the official culture of government now forces everyone to be chronically dishonest”, citing expression of views on transgender people.Delo was convicted in the US in 2022 after pleading guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act by failing to implement adequate anti-money-laundering controls at BitMEX, the trillion-dollar cryptocurrency exchange he co-founded. He has poured more than £100m into philanthropy and supports more than 50 organisations ranging across the political spectrum and public life.Nigel Farage welcomed Delo's support, saying it would help Reform attract more of the skills and talents needed to get ready for government. “Ben’s support will help Reform attract more of the skills and talents we need to get ready for government,” Farage told the Telegraph.

British computer scientist Adam Back has vehemently denied claims that he is the elusive creator of Bitcoin, known as Satoshi Nakamoto. A recent report in the New York Times had suggested that Back was Nakamoto, but he quickly took to social media to refute the claims. In a thread on X, Back stated, 'I also don’t know who satoshi is, and I think it is good for bitcoin that this is the case, as it helps bitcoin be viewed [as] a new asset class, the mathematically scarce digital commodity.' This denial comes after a years-long effort to unmask Nakamoto, the mysterious author of the bitcoin white paper which laid the theoretical foundations for modern digital currencies. The speculation surrounding Nakamoto's identity has been ongoing for years, with previous attempts pointing to Nick Szabo, Hal Finney, and an 'unknown Australian genius' who was later revealed to be a fraud. The latest trail led to Back, a London-born computer scientist and entrepreneur, who was a member of an online anarchist cryptography community called the cypherpunks in the early 1990s. Journalist John Carreyrou claimed to have found similarities between Back and Nakamoto by analyzing decades of old internet postings and shared niche interests. However, Back attributed the similarities to 'a combination of coincidence and similar phrases from people with similar experience and interests.' Not everyone is convinced by Back's denial, with some speculating that he may still be Nakamoto. Stephen Murdoch, a professor of computer science at University College London, noted that while there are indications that it could be Back, 'there’s no smoking gun.' Meanwhile, Dr. Jacky Mallett, an assistant professor of computer science at Reykjavík University, suggested that Satoshi was 'almost certainly more than one person,' citing updates to the bitcoin code that suggest multiple contributors. Back is the owner of a bitcoin treasury firm that is merging with a publicly traded company. If he were indeed Nakamoto and the owner of 1.1m coins worth tens of billions of pounds, he would have to disclose this to the Securities and Exchange Commission, as it could materially affect the bitcoin market.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning that emerging economies are facing a heightened risk of financial instability due to their increased reliance on market-based finance, particularly from hedge funds and investment funds. A cumulative $4tn flowed into emerging markets last year from outside the formal banking sector, which can bring benefits but also poses significant risks.The IMF's analysis suggests that this type of financing can be more volatile than traditional bank financing and is more likely to be withdrawn suddenly in times of financial stress. This can lead to abrupt retrenchments, intensify external financing pressures, raise borrowing costs, and trigger sharp currency depreciations, ultimately weighing on economic growth.The IMF highlights that some countries are already experiencing these challenges, particularly in the context of the war in the Middle East. Several emerging markets are experiencing a reversal of capital flows from non-resident non-bank investors, which can have a significant impact on their economies.The IMF also notes that hedge funds and mutual funds have the highest propensity to withdraw during market volatility, while pension funds and insurers tend to be more cautious. Additionally, the IMF warns about the growing flows of stablecoins into emerging economies, which can be vulnerable to wider fluctuations in cryptocurrency markets.The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the conflict will lead to higher prices and slower growth, adding that even if the war were to stop today, there would be a lingering negative impact on the rest of the world.

Cambodia has taken a significant step in its fight against cybercrime by approving a new law targeting scam centers accused of defrauding foreigners of billions of dollars. The law, which aims to enhance the country's 'cleaning operation' against these illicit operations, imposes punishments of two to five years in prison and fines of up to $125,000 for those convicted of online scams.The legislation, which will now go to Cambodia's king for a final signature, also outlines penalties for money laundering, gathering victims' data, or recruiting scammers. Ringleaders of scam centers that engage in human trafficking, detentions, and torture will face prison sentences of up to 20 years and fines of up to $500,000.The passage of the law comes amid widespread condemnation from rights groups and sanctions by governments around the world, with Cambodia accused of being a hotbed of cyberscams. The US Department of State has previously stated that 'official complicity, including at senior levels, inhibited effective law enforcement action against trafficking crimes' in Cambodia, which has denied these allegations.The new law is seen as a significant effort by Cambodia to combat the rise of online fraud, romance, and cryptocurrency scams. Several countries have enacted anti-cyberscam laws to address this issue, with con artists in Singapore facing 24 strokes of the cane in serious cases.Justice Minister Keut Rith emphasized that the law is 'strict like the fishing net' and aims to ensure that online scams do not return to Cambodia. The law is expected to send a strong message to cyberscammers that Cambodia is not a place to conduct scams, and it will serve the interests of the Cambodian nation and people.

The conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has taken a devastating toll on civilians, with widespread destruction and displacement reported across the country.At the Kapıköy border crossing in eastern Turkey, a mountain pass that serves as one of the few gateways to the west from Iran, many Iranians are fleeing the country due to the intensifying conflict.Amir, a 33-year-old foreign exchange and cryptocurrency trader from Tehran, is one of them. He described the nightly bombardments and said, 'Every night they are bombarding. Boom. Because of the war.'Others, like a pharmacologist from Tehran, are traveling to see their families in Europe, citing anxiety and frustration with the current situation. 'All of the people live with anxiety,' she said. 'We are very tired of the revolution of [the] Islamic republic of Iran.'The UN refugee agency reports that close to 64,000 Iranians arrived in Turkey between March 3 and 30, while more than 48,000 Iranian nationals returned to Iran.The International Organization for Migration estimates that more than 82,000 residential units have been hit by the US and Israeli strikes, affecting 180,000 people.Many at the Kapıköy border point expressed fear and uncertainty about the future, with some saying they were waiting to see what the outcome would be before making a decision.The conflict has had a significant impact on the economy, with part-government-owned corporations ordering people back to work and many businesses forced to close.As the situation continues to deteriorate, many are seeking safety abroad, while others are returning to Iran to be with their families.

The US government has taken legal action against Illinois for attempting to regulate the rapidly growing online prediction market industry. The lawsuit, filed in Chicago federal court, claims that Illinois' efforts to shut down so-called designated contract markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are unlawful.Online prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of events, from Oscar winners to military conflicts. These platforms classify their offerings as 'event derivatives,' which fall under federal commodities law and are overseen by the CFTC. This classification allows them to operate in all 50 states for users 18 and older.Illinois introduced legislation earlier this year that would impose strict regulations on prediction markets, including an effective ban on sports-related trades, advertising restrictions, and age verification measures. The CFTC argues that this legislation intrudes on its exclusive authority to regulate national swaps markets.The lawsuit is the first by the CFTC to block state gaming regulators from policing operators of prediction markets. It cites cease-and-desist letters sent by the Illinois gaming board to companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging violations of Illinois gambling laws.The federal lawsuit names Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul as defendants. The case highlights the ongoing debate over the regulation of prediction markets, with some arguing they are essentially gambling operations and others seeing them as federally regulated financial exchanges.Congress is also considering federal measures to regulate prediction markets, including a bipartisan bill introduced by US senators that would ban federally regulated platforms from allowing wagers on sporting events.