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The Middle East remains embroiled in a cycle of violence, with Iranian barrages targeting Israel, Gulf Arab states, and northern Iraq on Tuesday. This escalation comes a day after US President Donald Trump claimed that the US was in 'very good' talks with Iran to end the war in the region soon.Despite Trump's optimistic remarks, multiple official sources in Tehran have denied any talks are underway. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated, 'No negotiations have been held with the US … fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.' The Iranian government remains wary of US offers of negotiation, citing past experiences where talks were followed by attacks, such as the surprise attack that killed the supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials.Potential intermediaries, including Pakistan, Oman, Egypt, and others, have confirmed tentative efforts to establish channels of communication between Washington and Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been engaging in discussions with his counterparts in several countries, including Azerbaijan, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, and Turkmenistan.The diplomatic activity follows a significant escalation of threats between the US and Iran over the weekend, with both sides trading warnings of potential strikes. On Monday, Trump delayed a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for shipping or face targeted airstrikes on its power stations. This brief reprieve drove down oil prices and boosted stocks, with the deadline now set to expire on Friday.Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel will continue to strike Iran and Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Islamist militant movement. The Israeli prime minister warned, 'There's more to come.'The conflict has already had significant economic impacts, with oil prices rising to $104 (£77) a barrel, up more than 40% since Israel and the US started the war on 28 February. Analysts warn of durable and deep disruption to the supply of oil and gas from the region, even if hostilities end rapidly, with severe economic consequences worldwide.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has taken a significant turn as foreign ministers from Arab and Muslim countries gathered in Riyadh for urgent discussions. The meeting, which included representatives from 12 countries, aimed to muster a common response to Iran's increasing retaliation against US assets and infrastructure in the region.The talks were held as Iran targeted several energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in retaliation against Israel's strike on the South Pars gasfield, Iran's biggest source of energy. This escalation comes after a series of Israeli assassinations of top Iranian security officials.The joint statement issued on Thursday confirmed that the countries present at the meeting, including Qatar, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkiye, and the United Arab Emirates, asserted the right of states to defend themselves, citing Article 51 of the United Nations Charter on defensive action.The foreign ministers condemned deliberate Iranian attacks with ballistic missiles and drones that have struck various targets, including residential areas, water desalination plants, oil facilities, airports, and diplomatic positions. They called on Iran to:Halt its attacks.Stop "provocative actions or threats" aimed at its neighbours.Cease supporting, financing, and arming pro-Iran proxy groups based in Arab states.Refrain from actions or threats aimed at blocking the Strait of Hormuz or threatening maritime security in the Bab al-Mandeb strait.The meeting yielded a unified response to Iran's increasingly unpredictable behaviour, but the joint statement was vague about how countries would follow this up. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud emphasized his country's right to defend itself and hinted that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states would act if necessary, adding that they have "very significant capacities and capabilities that they could bring to bear should they choose to do so".The Iranian leadership's response to these developments remains unclear, with New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having not been seen in public since his appointment. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement saying that Iranian forces had responded to the "deceiving and lying enemy" that had targeted energy facilities in the country, and that they had "entered a new phase of warfare" to defend Iran's infrastructure.

US lawmakers, including Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar, are taking steps to regulate prediction markets by introducing the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. This legislation seeks to prohibit wagers on sensitive events such as government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. The proposed bill comes in response to concerns that betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have allowed users to profit from geopolitical conflicts, including the US and Israel's joint strikes against Iran and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Critics argue that these platforms enable individuals with insider knowledge to influence government decisions and profit from them. Murphy emphasized that the legislation aims to prevent the monetization of sensitive events, stating, "What happens to us spiritually when every moral question in this country becomes a market?" He added that certain matters should not be influenced by the potential for profit. The lawmakers cited examples of significant profits made by users on Polymarket, including a $500,000 profit from a bet on Iran's supreme leader being out of power hours before a strike. They suggested that such trades may have been made by individuals with insider knowledge from within the White House or close to the administration. The BETS OFF Act is part of a broader effort to regulate the prediction market industry. Other proposed legislation includes measures to establish federal consumer protections, ban elected officials from profiting from prediction markets, and impose age verification for users.