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The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.

The Contradiction of a 'Peace' PresidentPresident Donald Trump finds himself in a precarious position as he attempts to square his campaign promise of ending wars with the reality of a renewed conflict with Iran. While he campaigned on being the "peace" candidate, the war has triggered economic instability and eroded his domestic support base.Reclaiming Agency: The 'Oct. 7th' DefenseIn a direct rebuttal to critics who argue he is a puppet of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump has shifted the narrative. He asserts that his decision to enter the war was driven by the October 7, 2023 attacks and his long-standing belief that "IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON."Intelligence Context: Trump's own intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, testified that Iran is not rebuilding its enrichment capabilities prior to the war.Previous Claims: The administration previously claimed US air strikes in June had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program.Economic Realities: The $4 Gas ShockThe strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had immediate and tangible effects on the American economy, directly impacting the president's approval ratings.Gas Prices: The cost of petrol has surged to more than $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war.Inflation: Energy costs are fueling broader inflation, creating a "stagflation" risk for the US economy.The 'Bibi's War' Critique and Political FalloutPolitical analysts and opponents are increasingly framing the conflict as an extension of Israeli interests rather than American security interests. This narrative is gaining traction among voters and within the Democratic party.Opposition Rhetoric: Kamala Harris has criticized Trump as a "weak leader" who was "pulled into it by Bibi Netanyahu."Approval Ratings: A recent NBC News poll indicates that two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the war.Fragile Peace: The Stalemate in IslamabadWith a two-week ceasefire expiring, the administration is attempting to stabilize the region through diplomacy. However, the path forward remains fraught with danger.Current Status: Talks are set to take place in Pakistan this week.Risk Factors: Both Washington and Tehran have threatened to resume fighting if a deal is not reached.

Key BackgroundThe Strait of Hormuz channels about 21 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 20% of world oil trade. A complete shutdown would cut global supply by around 5%, potentially adding $10‑$15 per barrel to crude prices.What Iran Has SaidAbbas Araghchi (Iranian Foreign Minister) announced the strait would stay open for commercial traffic until the cease‑fire ends on April 22.The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later reversed this, declaring the waterway under "strict management" and warning that it will remain "tightly controlled" until the U.S. restores full navigation freedom.Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's Speaker of Parliament and chief negotiator, called the U.S. blockade "ignorant" and said Iran will not allow passage without its consent.What the United States Has SaidDonald Trump (U.S. President) vowed to keep the blockade until a deal is finalized, warning that failure to accept a "fair" offer could lead to "knocking out every single power plant and bridge" in Iran.Trump announced that U.S. negotiators will travel to Islamabad, Pakistan to seek a settlement.In a Truth Social post, he accused Iran of violating the cease‑fire and promised "very good" talks.Current Situation in the StraitLloyd’s List reports that traffic has halted after Iranian forces fired on several vessels on Saturday.The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirmed a tanker was hit by two gunboats linked to the IRGC.India summoned the Iranian ambassador after two Indian‑flagged ships were reportedly fired upon.Broader Sticking PointsNuclear EnrichmentThe U.S. claims Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles (about 440 kg) constitute "nuclear dust" that Washington will retrieve. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected the claim, asserting Iran’s nuclear program is civilian and compliant with the NPT.Lebanon FrontA fragile cease‑fire in Lebanon, tied to Iran’s demand, remains under pressure. Hezbollah, Tehran’s regional ally, denounced the truce as an "insult" and warned of continued resistance.Potential ImpactIf the strait remains closed, the immediate effect would be a 5‑10% rise in global oil prices, pressuring economies already coping with post‑pandemic recovery. Financial markets could see a $200‑$300 billion hit to oil‑related equities, while shipping insurers would likely raise premiums for Gulf transits.Analysts warn that escalation could trigger broader military engagement, drawing in regional powers and further destabilising global energy supplies.

Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest point in weeks after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open for passage during a ceasefire in Lebanon. The international benchmark, Brent crude, fell more than 9 percent to $90.38 a barrel on Friday, taking it below $91 for the first time since March 10.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait was “completely open” and would remain so for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which took effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump hailed Tehran’s announcement, declaring the waterway “ready for business and full passage.”However, on Saturday, Iran rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the key waterway as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect. Trump said the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear programme.Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz and further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher once again. Amid the escalation, Pakistani officials say they are trying for more talks between the US and Iran ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline.Meanwhile, ship tracking data displayed a significant uptick in vessels crossing the strait on Saturday, with an analyst at maritime intelligence firm Windward saying it was the busiest since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed at the beginning of the war.

US President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning that the United States will resume military action against Iran if a nuclear deal is not reached. Speaking in a recent statement, Trump emphasized that the US will 'start dropping bombs again' if diplomatic efforts fail to produce a satisfactory agreement.The statement comes amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran over the country's nuclear program. Trump's comments have sparked concerns about a potential escalation of conflict in the region.The US has been engaged in diplomatic efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, which was withdrawn from by the Trump administration in 2018. The deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed to limit Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.Trump's warning has heightened concerns about a potential military conflict in the region, with many countries and international organizations calling for a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

Iranian authorities have dismissed former U.S. President Donald Trump's statement alleging the existence of a deal to surrender nuclear material stockpiles. In a brief statement, Tehran's foreign ministry clarified that no such agreement has been negotiated or signed, countering the former president's public remarks.The rejection underscores ongoing tensions between Tehran and Washington over the country's nuclear program, a subject that continues to dominate diplomatic discourse. While Trump suggested progress toward a disarmament arrangement, Iranian officials stressed that any claims of a finalized deal are unfounded and do not reflect the current state of negotiations.Analysts note that the divergence in narratives may further complicate efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or any future framework aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear capabilities. The Iranian response serves as a reminder that official channels and verified agreements remain the only credible basis for assessing nuclear non‑proliferation developments.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels, a statement that raised hopes for de‑escalation in the Middle‑East conflict and sent global oil prices tumbling. President Donald Trump took to social media to celebrate the news, proclaiming it a "great and brilliant day for the world" and asserting that Iran had pledged never to shut the strategic waterway again. Trump also claimed that Tehran had agreed to suspend its nuclear programme indefinitely and would forfeit any frozen U.S. funds, suggesting that a deal‑making session could occur over the upcoming weekend. In contrast, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) offered only qualified support for Araghchi’s declaration, indicating that commercial traffic would be permitted only along a prescribed route and under IRGC naval permission. The United States, however, signalled that its naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in force until all transactions are completed, warning that few vessels are likely to risk passage under the current uncertainty. Oil markets reacted swiftly: Brent crude slipped below $90 per barrel, easing inflationary pressures that had surged after the strait’s earlier closure. Simultaneously, a ten‑day truce in Lebanon entered its second day, temporarily halting Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah‑aligned forces and offering a brief respite to civilians after weeks of intense fighting. Despite the truce, an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon killed a civilian, and Defence Minister Israel Katz reiterated that the Israeli Defence Forces were not withdrawing and could resume operations. In Paris, representatives from roughly 40 nations gathered at a conference co‑chaired by France and the United Kingdom to discuss a coordinated plan for safeguarding the strait, which historically carries about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed Araghchi’s statement but urged a "full, unconditional reopening" by all parties, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for any reopening plan to be "lasting and workable". The International Maritime Organization’s secretary‑general, Arsenio Domínguez, said the agency is reviewing the announcement to ensure it complies with the principle of free navigation for all merchant vessels. Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, acting as a key mediator, arrived in Tehran to advance negotiations for a more durable peace, underscoring Pakistan’s growing diplomatic role in the region. Overall, while the Hormuz opening has eased immediate market pressures, the broader geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire set to expire soon and regional actors still poised for further confrontation.

Britain is bracing for its most severe economic contraction in decades, a side‑effect of the United States’ escalating conflict with Iran and the resulting shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The British Treasury and the IMF warn that the nation’s growth could be crushed, public confidence in the government is eroding, and the prime minister’s position may become untenable. The original aim of sanctions was to punish hostile states and force leaders like Vladimir Putin to change course. Yet, data shows that in the years following the sanctions, Russia’s growth outpaced that of the United Kingdom. Similarly, the 2010s sanctions on Iran, intended to halt its nuclear programme, appear to have accelerated it, and current measures aimed at toppling the ayatollahs show little prospect of success. The United States now enforces economic restrictions on around 30 countries, including North Korea, Myanmar, Belarus and Afghanistan. Despite the breadth of these measures, the targeted regimes have largely remained in power, indicating a systemic failure of sanctions to destabilise entrenched governments. Beyond their limited impact on regime change, sanctions have unintentionally bolstered the Sino‑Russian trade bloc and driven many nations toward the BRICS alliance, positioning it as a counterweight to the G7. This realignment underscores the counter‑productive nature of the policy. Academic research, such as Nicholas Mulder’s The Economic Weapon, reinforces the historical pattern: except for very small states, trade restrictions are easily circumvented, and authoritarian regimes insulated from democratic pressures are largely immune. Mulder concludes that “the history of sanctions is a history of disappointment,” a sentiment echoed by critics who warn that each new round of sanctions repeats the same mistakes. One of the most damaging side‑effects is the exodus of skilled professionals. Iran, for example, has seen a diaspora of over four million people as of 2021, many of whom belong to the educated middle class that could have fueled internal reform. The brain drain weakens any potential opposition and inadvertently benefits Western economies that absorb this talent. Russia experienced a similar talent flight after the 1990s, when a vibrant civil society briefly flourished. Today, the remaining dissenters face both Kremlin repression and Western ostracism, creating an atmosphere reminiscent of McCarthy‑era loyalty tests. Given these outcomes, the article argues that the West must abandon blunt economic coercion in favour of nuanced, soft‑power strategies. Supporting opposition groups through academic, cultural, and diplomatic channels could nurture the very alternatives that sanctions have helped to erode. In sum, sanctions have proven illiberal and counter‑productive, reinforcing authoritarian borders while draining the human capital needed for genuine change. Restoring constructive relationships with societies like Iran and Russia, rather than relying on punitive trade measures, may offer a more viable path to long‑term stability.

The US House of Representatives has rejected a resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's power to wage war with Iran. The vote, which took place on Thursday, resulted in 213 votes in favor and 214 against the resolution, highlighting the deep divisions within Congress on the issue.The narrow margin underscores the intense debate over Trump's military actions in Iran and the role of Congress in authorizing war. The resolution's defeat comes a day after a similar measure failed in the US Senate, with Republicans largely opposing efforts to constrain Trump's military authority.Democrats have accused Republicans of giving unchecked power to Trump, who has been engaged in a military conflict with Iran since February 28. The war has resulted in significant human and economic costs, including the loss of servicemembers' lives and soaring gas prices.Under the US Constitution, only Congress has the authority to declare war, although presidents may conduct military actions in instances of immediate self-defense. The Trump administration has maintained that Iran's actions since the 1979 Iranian Revolution constitute such a threat, while critics argue that the US and Israeli attack on Iran was unprovoked and violated international law.The failed resolution reflects the ongoing struggle between Congress and the executive branch over the power to wage war. Democrats have argued that Congress must assert its authority to prevent an unchecked expansion of presidential power, while Republicans have largely supported Trump's military actions in Iran.Ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing, with both sides signaling a willingness to engage in further talks. However, significant issues remain unresolved, including control of the Strait of Hormuz and the future of Iran's nuclear program.