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The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to a sharp increase in crude prices, driving up fuel costs and placing strain on households worldwide. In the six weeks since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, oil prices have risen sharply, with the main international benchmark surging more than 8 percent to top $103 a barrel.However, the price of oil is more complicated than any one figure and depends on where you look. The oil trade can be broadly divided into two distinct markets: physical sales and contracts for future oil deliveries, known as futures.Since the start of the war and Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prices in these markets have diverged substantially – reflecting what analysts say is a growing mismatch between perceptions of supply and the reality on the ground. Dated Brent hit an all-time high of more than $144 a barrel – about $35 above the price of Brent futures.The principal benchmark for spot prices is Dated Brent, a basket of four grades of oil produced in the North Sea and one produced in the US. It reflects the per-barrel price of oil scheduled for shipment in the next 10 to 30 days. On the other hand, Brent futures are financial derivatives that reflect the price of oil due to be loaded months or even years from now.The futures price is the price most commonly found in news reports and search engine results. However, the gap between spot and futures prices has widened well beyond what is typical since the conflict began, indicating that oil supplies are becoming increasingly scarce on the ground.Analysts say traders have been betting on a resolution to the crisis down the track, with the return of price stability depending on Iran easing its control over the strait and shipping companies gaining confidence that it is safe to transit. The global economy is still facing a daily shortfall of about 8 million barrels of oil, according to a recent estimate by market intelligence provider Kpler.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has taken a turn for the worse, with President Trump's decision to escalate rather than negotiate turning this into a global problem. Europe, which had initially adopted a stance of non-involvement, is now facing the consequences of Trump's actions. The US naval blockade of Iran aims to prevent the country from shipping oil to market unless it allows free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this move has caused oil prices to rise and stocks to fall, with the global economy feeling the pinch. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington has turned into a crisis summit, with global growth forecasts being revised down due to the expected prolonged energy shock. The conflict has also raised concerns about shortages of essential goods such as medicines, fertilizers, and helium, which could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. The article suggests that Trump's threats to stop tankers reaching Iranian ports and seize any ship paying Iran a toll for safe passage risk spiraling the war out of control. In this context, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's suggestion that Europe should help the US get out of the mess it has created has some merit. The article argues that Europe needs to find a way to help Trump retreat without losing face, and that diplomacy and negotiation are crucial to resolving the crisis. The article concludes that Trump's war aims are unpredictable and that the US needs NATO's diplomats and ideas to resolve the crisis, rather than just brute force. Europe must find a way to work with the US to end the conflict and prevent further economic damage.

The world is gripped by a sense of unease and fear, reminiscent of the early days of the Covid pandemic. However, this time, the threat is more complex and multifaceted. The US president's recent statements and actions have contributed to this anxiety, leaving many to wonder if the world is on the brink of chaos. People are waking up in the middle of the night, checking their phones for updates on social media and news websites, fearing the worst about potential conflicts and their impact on the global economy. The sensation of living through a highly dynamic time in history is overwhelming, with many feeling like they're being swung about by time's paw. The possibility of war is a major concern, with the US president's promise to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that carries 20% of the world's oil and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers. This has significant implications for the global economy, with many people worried about the potential for sharp price rises in fuel, building materials, groceries, and other essential items. The article's author, Brigid Delaney, notes that the current crisis feels different from previous ones, with the potential for world war three looming large. The economic effects of the war have already been felt by billions of people around the world, particularly the poorest, whose governments can't afford to pay a premium to buy fuel in other markets. The humanitarian crisis in the Middle East is also a major concern, with civilians being killed and injured in large numbers. The article highlights the need for attention to be paid to these issues, as they have significant implications for global stability and security. In conclusion, the world is facing a complex and uncertain future, with many people experiencing a sense of dread and anxiety about what is to come. It is essential to stay informed and engaged with these issues, as they have significant implications for our collective well-being.

Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel and global stocks fell after weekend talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement and Donald Trump imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US president announced the blockade on Sunday, targeting Iranian vessels and ships that have paid a toll to Iran for passage through the strait, in an attempt to choke off the flow of Iranian oil.US Central Command said it would start at 10am ET (5.30pm in Iran and 3pm in the UK), blocking all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas, in effect seizing control of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The news drove oil and gas prices sharply higher again, after the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced on Wednesday prompted a sharp fall in energy prices, and crude ended the week below the psychological $100 a barrel threshold.Brent crude rose by nearly 7% to $101.74 a barrel on Monday morning, while US crude is up more than 8% to $104.69 a barrel. Gas prices also increased, with the British wholesale gas contract for May soaring by 11.7% to 122.5p a therm. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said last week they expected oil prices to stay high in the second quarter, above $100 a barrel, before easing in the second half of the year.Most Asian stock markets fell on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index losing 1%, while Chinese stocks rose slightly. Sentiment was helped by Beijing’s announcement of a 10-initiative strategy aimed at deepening ties with Taiwan. European stocks also fell, led by airlines including Lufthansa, Wizz Air, easyJet and British Airways parent IAG. The FTSE 100 index in London lost 0.4%, dropping 45 points to 10,555. Germany’s Dax fell 1%, Italy’s FTSE MiB slipped 0.7% and Spain’s Ibex was down 1.1%. With oil and gas prices rising sharply higher, energy companies such as BP and Shell are rallying.Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at the broker Phillip Nova, said: “In today’s environment, every barrel of risk added to oil markets carries an inflation price tag for the global economy.” She added: “The market reaction underscores a simple but powerful reality: Hormuz risk is not theoretical; it is structural, and it is real.”Interest rate expectations have shifted again; investors now see an 84% chance of two rate increases from the Bank of England this year to tackle rising inflation, up from 60% on Friday. Before the Iran war, the central bank was expected to cut rates. The price of gold fell 0.4% to $4,730.75 an ounce as the blockade fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. Navy will commence a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz immediately after peace talks between Washington and Tehran in Pakistan ended without an agreement. In a social‑media post, Trump labeled Iran’s actions as “extortion” and warned that American warships would hunt down and interdict any ship that has paid Iran a toll to traverse the waterway, while also beginning mine‑clearing operations. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded that civilian vessels may still cross the strait under “specific regulations,” but any military craft attempting entry would be deemed a breach of the cease‑fire and would be “dealt with severely.” Since the February 28 war launched by the United States and Israel, Iran has effectively taken control of the strategic chokepoint, a route that carries about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Traffic has now dwindled to a trickle, sending shockwaves through the global economy and raising alarm among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Al Jazeera correspondents noted that the rhetoric from the White House has amplified “alarm bells” across the GCC, where leaders had hoped the two‑week ceasefire would evolve into a longer‑term peace framework. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, urged on social media that the ceasefire be extended and that all parties make “painful concessions” to avoid a return to war. Trump’s statements also included a stark threat: any Iranian forces that fire on U.S. or “peaceful” vessels would be “blown to hell.” He claimed the blockade would involve “other countries” and that the United Kingdom, along with “a couple of other nations,” were dispatching minesweeper vessels to assist – a claim the British government has not confirmed. Domestic criticism emerged quickly. Democratic Senator Mark Warner told CNN he “doesn’t see how blockading the strait will compel Iran to open it,” questioning the strategic logic behind the move. Iran denied U.S. allegations that two of its warships had recently passed through the strait for mine‑clearing, warning that any military vessel attempting such a passage would meet a “strong response.” Tehran officials have floated the idea of instituting a post‑conflict toll system for vessels using the waterway, a prospect that could further entrench Iran’s leverage over global energy flows. Analysts warn that heightened tensions in the Hormuz corridor could push oil prices higher, amplifying inflationary pressures worldwide. As the situation unfolds, mediators continue to press both sides to resume diplomatic talks and avoid a broader escalation.

Saudi Arabia has returned its East‑West oil pipeline to full operational capacity, enabling the transport of approximately 7 million barrels of crude per day after a series of attacks disrupted flow earlier this week. In a statement released on Sunday, the Ministry of Energy praised the swift repair work, noting that the turnaround demonstrates the high operational resilience and crisis‑management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the broader national energy system. The ministry also confirmed that production at the Manifa oilfield—situated off Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast—has been restored to its full capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd). Efforts continue at the inland Khurais oilfield, which is still recovering from a loss of roughly 300,000 bpd. Earlier reports from the Saudi Press Agency indicated that attacks on a pumping station along the East‑West pipeline had cut daily output by 700,000 bpd. Simultaneous assaults on the Manifa and Khurais fields were said to have reduced combined capacity by 600,000 bpd. No party was identified as responsible for the attacks. The East‑West pipeline, linking the prolific Abqaiq field in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has become a vital conduit for international oil supplies, especially as Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off about 20% of global oil shipments, driving up energy prices worldwide. Despite a fragile cease‑fire announced on Tuesday between the United States and Iran, maritime traffic through the strait remains severely limited. Data from S&P; Global show that only 22 vessels with active AIS transponders passed through the strait between Wednesday and Friday, a stark drop from the pre‑conflict average of 135 daily transits. Restoring the pipeline’s full capacity is expected to reinforce supply continuity for both domestic and international markets, providing a modest but meaningful cushion to the global economy as geopolitical tensions persist.

Iran’s attempt to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has been labeled illegal by Arsenio Domínguez, the head of the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO). In an interview with Al Jazeera, Domínguez stressed that such charges would set a dangerous precedent for global shipping. Tehran has asserted its right to levy fees even after the conflict ends, while U.S. President Donald Trump floated the idea of a joint U.S.-Iran venture to collect the payments. Both proposals clash with established maritime conventions. "Countries do not have the right to introduce tools or payments or charges on these straits," Domínguez said, adding that any toll system would be contrary to international law and could cripple the free flow of trade. The remarks came as marathon cease‑fire negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan concluded without an agreement. U.S. Vice President JD Vance noted that Tehran rejected Washington’s terms, which included a commitment to forgo nuclear weapons development, prompting the American delegation to depart Islamabad after presenting its "final and best offer." Iran’s state‑run Press TV blamed the stalemate on what it called the United States' "excessive demands," citing the toll issue and the nuclear programme as major points of contention. Despite a two‑week cease‑fire announced earlier in the week, maritime traffic remains severely limited. Only 22 vessels with active AIS signals exited the strait between the truce’s start and Friday, a stark drop from the pre‑conflict average of about 135 daily transits, according to S&P Global. The bottleneck is throttling oil and natural‑gas exports from the Gulf. The U.S. military reported that two warships had navigated the waterway to clear Iranian mines, a move Iran denied. President Trump later insisted the strait would reopen "fairly soon," with or without Tehran’s cooperation. Domínguez emphasized that ending the hostilities is the fundamental solution to restoring safe passage. He warned that any resumption of traffic must be accompanied by thorough de‑mining and safety checks to protect both vessels and crews. He also dismissed calls for new legal frameworks, noting that the 1968 traffic‑separation agreement between Iran and Oman—which splits the strait into north‑ and south‑bound lanes—had functioned effectively before the war and does not require revision. Humanitarian concerns feature prominently in Domínguez’s statements. He highlighted that roughly 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Gulf due to the blockade, warning that prolonged isolation would not only harm these workers but also have a negative ripple effect on the global economy.

The collapse of talks between the US and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, fuelling fears of a prolonged energy crisis and rising inflation. The failure to reach a peace deal has left large numbers of oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, with oil prices fluctuating wildly in response to the uncertainty.US Vice-President JD Vance has blamed the collapse of the talks on Tehran's refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian sources have hit back at what they describe as 'excessive' demands from Washington. The stalemate has raised concerns about the long-term impact on the global economy, with governments and central banks warning of higher inflation and interest rates.Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to Allianz, has cautioned that uncertainty will continue to dominate assessments of the financial impact from the conflict. 'Absent a swift resumption of negotiations, the immediate reaction of financial markets when they open for the trading week will be to push oil prices higher and borrowing costs higher,' he said.The International Monetary Fund and World Bank's spring meetings in Washington will focus on the war's impact on the global economy, with the IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, indicating that the fund will present three scenarios predicting lower economic growth and higher inflation. The IMF is also expected to highlight the impact on vulnerable economies.In the short term, oil prices have ended the week lower, with Brent crude at $94.26 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at $95.63 a barrel. However, global stock markets have rebounded after a temporary ceasefire was announced, with the S&P; 500 close to its level before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began.

The world's finance ministers and central bank governors are gathering in Washington for the half-yearly meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, with the global economy in a perilous spot. The US-Israeli war on Iran, coming soon after the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has triggered significant economic turbulence.Even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached, there will still be permanent economic scars. The conflict has caused damage to infrastructure, heaping further pressure on already struggling households. This is the biggest energy shock of the modern age, with oil and gas prices surging, inflation rising, and borrowing costs increasing.The IMF has said it will cut its growth forecasts for 2026 when it publishes its flagship world economic outlook. In every scenario, growth is slower and inflation higher. Households worldwide will feel the pain, with the world's poorest bearing the brunt.The fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has urged officials to work together, warning that "go-it-alone actions" may have appeal but would ultimately make matters worse. The IMF cautions that any energy support should be targeted and temporary to limit the costs of blanket support and avoid stoking inequality.For central banks, the fund urges them to remain vigilant, with financial markets expecting interest rates to be kept on hold or raised to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. The economic problems are interlinked with political instability, making it a challenging situation for governments worldwide.