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The UK is bracing for a potential third inflationary shock in less than a decade as the conflict between Iran and the US threatens to disrupt oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, is at risk of being blocked, which could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. The impact of such a disruption would be felt globally, with Asia being particularly affected as it buys 80% of the oil transported through the strait. Countries in the region are already experiencing the effects, with governments imposing limits on driving and shortening working weeks to conserve energy. Populations are struggling with dramatic hikes in food prices and shortages of petrol and diesel. In Bangladesh, the government reportedly believes it will run out of oil and gas within weeks. To conserve fuel, some temples in Thailand have stopped cremations. The energy-supply storm may well hit the UK's shores just before next month's elections, prompting Keir Starmer to call Cobra meetings and Rachel Reeves to summon business leaders into Downing Street. The poorest households will be hit hardest by the inflationary shock, with food producers predicting prices will rocket nearly 10% this year. According to calculations done exclusively for this column by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), that will add £127 to the average household's annual food bill. However, the ECIU also notes that because the poorest spend proportionately more of their money on food, they will be hit far worse. The author suggests that the UK needs to adopt a more progressive approach to utility pricing, with a move away from fossil fuels and from the current system of ownership. The days of relying on a growth miracle are over, and the UK needs to focus on addressing the inequality and regressive utility pricing that will exacerbate the impact of the inflationary shock.

More drilling in the North Sea will not enhance the UK’s energy security, a group of former senior military leaders told The Guardian on Monday, as the Conservative Party’s energy minister Kemi Badenoch launched a campaign to revive offshore oil and gas licences. The veterans, including retired Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, a climate‑security professor at University College London, warned that extracting the remaining hydrocarbons “is not the answer” to the country’s rising energy costs and geopolitical vulnerability. Morisetti emphasized that global market forces, not domestic production, set fuel prices and that reliance on imports leaves the UK exposed to “structural chokepoints” such as the Strait of Hormuz or insurance withdrawals. He urged the government to focus on a rapid transition to a diversified mix of wind, solar, tidal and nuclear power, alongside a major renewal of the electricity grid and expanded storage capacity. A recent E3G think‑tank report supports this view, stating that “structural chokepoints” in oil and gas supply chains mean that increasing fossil‑fuel output anywhere does not improve national security. The report highlights that reducing reliance on imported hydrocarbons through electrification, efficiency, and domestic clean energy offers the most durable protection against supply shocks. Maria Pastukhova, senior policy adviser at E3G, explained that while clean‑energy systems are not immune to disruptions, they shift control “under domestic ownership,” lowering exposure to geopolitical and market volatility. Data cited by the report show that the North Sea is a “mature basin” whose output has fallen 75 % since its peak. New licences granted between 2010 and 2024 have produced only 36 days of gas, according to research by the Uplift campaign and consultancy Voar, underscoring the limited impact of further drilling. Retired Lt Gen Richard Nugee compared the UK’s situation to recent developments in Spain, where electricity prices are increasingly set by renewables rather than fossil fuels, reducing dependence on vulnerable chokepoints. He argued that “going for renewables gives greater independence, greater sovereignty, less vulnerability to attack and more opportunity,” contrasting it with the finite and externally‑controlled nature of gas supplies. Experts such as Khem Rogaly of the Transition Security Project warn that reliance on “expensive and volatile fossil fuels” makes British households vulnerable to shocks from global conflicts, including US‑led oil wars. James Meadway, director of the Verdant think‑tank, added that the war in Iran has revealed the fragility of large, centralized power systems to both kinetic attacks and cyber‑threats, reinforcing the case for a more distributed energy architecture. In sum, the former military leaders and independent analysts concur that the only credible route to lasting UK energy security lies in **accelerating renewable deployment, improving efficiency, and modernising the grid**, rather than expanding North Sea drilling.

President Donald Trump's aggressive pursuit of fossil fuels, particularly in the context of the Iran conflict, has exposed the volatile nature of the fossil fuel era, according to critics. The ongoing tensions have resulted in significant economic and environmental costs, including a spike in global energy costs and a substantial humanitarian toll.The conflict has led to a humanitarian and environmental crisis in Iran and southern Lebanon, with threats of further escalation likely to exacerbate these issues. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil transportation, has had far-reaching economic implications, with consumers worldwide paying over $100 billion extra to fossil fuel companies since the conflict began. In the US, the average national cost of gasoline has risen to nearly $4 a gallon.Experts, such as Alice Hill from the Council on Foreign Relations, have expressed concerns about Trump's reliance on fossil fuels, stating that it is a risky strategy. Hill emphasized that countries investing in clean energy like solar and wind power will be better positioned to weather such crises. However, Trump's administration has actively sought to undermine clean energy projects, including banning them from federal land and waters and removing their subsidies.The Trump administration's actions have been contrasted with the growing global investment in renewable energy. Despite the declining cost of wind and solar power, the administration has taken steps to promote fossil fuel extraction, including attempting to seize oil supplies from Iran and Venezuela. This approach has been criticized for its potential to exacerbate climate change and undermine global efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources.The ongoing dependence on fossil fuels has been highlighted by recent environmental disasters, including toxic black smoke from missile strikes on oil depots in Iran and an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. These incidents have underscored the need for a shift towards cleaner energy sources to mitigate the risks associated with fossil fuel extraction and consumption.

The recent open letter from 60 clergy members, addressed to the author, underscores a shared concern for planetary stewardship and acknowledges that human‑generated carbon emissions are warming the climate. However, the signatories and the author diverge sharply on the appropriate policy response. Marshall contends that an outright ban on fossil fuels is both impractical and ideologically driven, creating a collective‑action dilemma for the UK. He notes that while the nation pursues a rapid net‑zero transition, major emitters such as India and China operate on markedly different timelines, and the United States has withdrawn from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This leaves Britain navigating a path of unilateral economic disarmament. Industrial electricity rates in the UK have surged to two‑and‑a‑half to three times those in China and four times those in the United States. Such cost differentials are eroding the global competitiveness of sectors ranging from steel and oil refining to chemicals, automotive manufacturing, and emerging AI industries. The result, according to Marshall, is a wave of factory closures, investment pull‑backs, and significant job losses across the nation's industrial heartlands. Beyond macro‑economic concerns, the policy’s social toll is stark. Older and low‑income households are bearing the brunt of soaring energy bills, with an estimated 2,500 excess deaths last year attributed to an inability to adequately heat homes. This humanitarian impact, Marshall argues, contradicts the very notion of “human flourishing” that climate advocates champion. While acknowledging that every policy entails trade‑offs, Marshall warns that the clergy’s proposal would impose severe personal costs on working‑class Britons without delivering the promised climate benefits. He concludes that the current net‑zero trajectory is unlikely to curb global warming and instead jeopardizes the UK's economic vitality and social wellbeing. Paul MarshallChair, Marshall Wace; personal investor in GB News

The BBC has been accused of creating 'glossy propaganda films' for Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has raised concerns about the corporation's impartiality and potential damage to its reputation.BBC Storyworks, the corporation's commercial arm, has entered into a partnership with PIF to produce a series of films and written articles lauding Saudi Arabia's progressive attitude towards women and eco-friendly credentials. These content pieces are hosted on a mini-site bearing BBC branding, but are not accessible in the UK unless users employ a VPN.Critics argue that this partnership is inappropriate, especially given Saudi Arabia's human rights record and the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The BBC's reputation as an unbiased news outlet is at risk, according to former Baghdad bureau chief Patrick Howse: 'The BBC's existence depends on its reputation as an unbiased and reliable news outlet that is beholden to no one and pursues the truth without fear or favour.'The partnership comes as the BBC seeks alternative funding sources due to a dwindling number of licence fee payers, with a loss of about £50m in revenue. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil exporter, is also promoting its green credentials through a BBC Storyworks piece funded by PIF, despite significant investments in fossil fuels.Human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, have criticized PIF's investments as tools of Saudi soft power and influence, aimed at whitewashing government abuses. They argue that businesses should avoid activities that bolster the reputation of government entities or officials accused of serious abuses.In response, a BBC Studios spokesperson stated that 'BBC News maintains clear separation between its commercial and editorial departments' and that journalists continue to report impartially and without fear or favour.

The deadly conflict in Iran has precipitated what the International Energy Agency describes as the worst oil crisis in history, creating a complex situation for global clean energy efforts. While climate advocates are calling for accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, the war simultaneously presents both opportunities and significant challenges for renewable energy development.US-Israeli strikes on Iran have critically disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime channel through which 20% of global oil flows. The conflict has also seen direct attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure by all parties involved, creating additional market shocks and uncertainty.Interestingly, reduced reliance on oil and gas is proving beneficial for some regions navigating the ongoing fuel crisis. As Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy at Oxford University, explains: Electricity generated from wind and solar is largely insulated from fossil fuel price volatility – once built, the fuel is free.Countries with substantial renewable energy investments are demonstrating greater resilience. Spain and Portugal have witnessed electricity prices decline in recent weeks, while Pakistan has experienced a surge in rooftop solar installations over the past five years, helping the nation weather oil and gas market disruptions.The electric vehicle revolution is also providing some economies with protection against gasoline price increases. In China, more than 50% of all new cars sold are electric, while in Nepal, that figure reaches an impressive 70%.However, the war is creating near-term challenges that could impede clean energy growth. The conflict has disrupted transport routes for metals essential in solar panel construction, particularly aluminum. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production, and regional producers have begun scaling back operations amid the hostilities.Furthermore, the inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict pose significant hurdles for renewable energy projects, which require substantial upfront investment for construction, equipment, and installation.Paradoxically, the war and resulting energy shocks have provided a short-term boon for fossil fuels, including coal. Many Asian countries heavily reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are burning more coal to meet energy demand as LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz become constrained.The conflict has also incentivized increased oil and gas drilling and exploration, as countries scramble to replace disrupted LNG supplies and higher prices make previously unviable projects economically viable. US company Venture Global recently announced a new five-year contract to supply LNG, while Canadian energy company TC Energy indicated that Iran war disruptions are increasing the likelihood of expanding a massive LNG export facility.The Trump administration has further incentivized oil expansion, recently announcing plans to pay a French company $1 billion to abandon offshore wind farm projects in favor of fossil fuel initiatives.Experts propose various policy responses to encourage the green transition during this crisis. Rosenow advocates for tax reform to reduce the disproportionate burden on electricity compared to gas. Professor Gregor Semieniuk suggests imposing windfall taxes on oil and gas companies during the war, while Lauren Pagel of Earthworks calls for ending fossil fuel subsidies and making polluters pay for their environmental impact.Despite the current challenges, Kingsmill Bond, a strategist for the energy thinktank Ember, maintains that this crisis could ultimately accelerate the clean energy transition: This is the first oil shock in history where oil faces a superior alternative. Solar, wind and EV are cheaper, local, faster to deploy, and huge.

Sir Paul Marshall, the co-owner of GB News and a self-described 'committed' Christian, has been criticized by a group of 100 church leaders over the TV channel's attacks on climate science and action. The leaders, including former Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams, argue that Marshall's statements on climate change are misleading and that his hedge fund's £1.8bn investments in fossil fuels present a conflict of interest.Marshall has stated that the UK has been infected by 'climate derangement syndrome' and that efforts to cut planet-heating emissions are 'impoverishing people.' In response, the church leaders emphasized that 100% of global heating since 1950 has been caused by human emissions and activities, according to the world's climate scientists. They also noted that decarbonization is a huge growth opportunity that will save trillions of dollars in the long term.The leaders, in an open letter, urged Marshall to be transparent about any personal conflicts of interest and to declare his financial interests in fossil fuels. They cited research that found GB News broadcast 953 attacks on climate science and climate action in the period immediately before and after the 2024 general election.Marshall responded that 'the Gospel entreats us to look after the vulnerable' but argued that pursuing an 'ideological' net zero policy was 'a path of unilateral economic disarmament and self-harm.' He also stated that he was not involved in the editorial decisions of GB News, which has lost £131m since its launch in 2021.The Christian leaders' criticism of Marshall and GB News highlights the ongoing debate over climate change and the role of media outlets in shaping public discourse on the issue. As more than 100 countries have net zero policies and the UK's net zero economy grew by 10% in 2024, the pressure on media outlets to provide accurate and responsible reporting on climate issues continues to grow.

Robert Habeck, former German Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, has issued a stark warning about the dangers posed by authoritarian leaders driven by megalomania, drawing parallels between Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine and Donald Trump's actions in Iran.Habeck argues that both leaders are primarily concerned with their own greatness, making them unpredictable and disinterested in international law. This megalomania has led to massive military miscalculations, including underestimating the resolve of the countries they attacked to make sacrifices.The article highlights the impact on energy prices, with both conflicts threatening to disrupt global energy supplies. Habeck recalls the high oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which rose to $130 a barrel, and warns that a prolonged conflict in Iran could lead to an inflationary contagion beyond energy.Habeck emphasizes the need for Europe to develop its defence capabilities, including stockpiles of interceptor drones and new production capacity, to prepare for the scenario of a long war. He also stresses the importance of rapid electrification of industry, transport, and the heating and cooling sectors to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.The author concludes that Europe must act to prevent the worst outcome, rather than relying on hope or second-best outcomes. As he notes, hope is not a strategy, and the EU must use its resources wisely to protect its infrastructure and ensure energy security.

UK ministers have issued a stern warning that increasing North Sea drilling would leave the country vulnerable to the fluctuations of fossil fuel markets. This cautionary stance comes as the Conservatives and some Labour MPs are advocating for a reversal of the manifesto commitment to not issue new oil and gas licences.Energy Minister Michael Shanks emphasized that the UK is learning from past conflicts to avoid exposure to fossil fuels, which have previously led to households bearing the brunt of price hikes. The government's focus is on clean power to achieve energy sovereignty and national security.Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to outline plans to protect people from higher energy bills caused by the US-Iran conflict. The plans include measures to clamp down on price gouging, especially by petrol retailers responding to the conflict.Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, stressed that dependence on fossil fuel markets makes the UK a price taker, not a price maker. He argued that new licences in the North Sea would not affect prices and that scrapping the windfall tax would only increase energy company profits.The Labour Party has raised concerns about the impact of increased drilling on the environment and the economy. Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, argued that turning away from domestic gas would be detrimental, especially during a gas supply crisis.The government spokesperson highlighted the importance of £120bn of public investment in building homegrown energy, including nuclear power projects, to protect working people's bills for generations to come.