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The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil exports, has seen its traffic plunge by over 95 percent since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. This disruption has led to a significant increase in pressure on oil and gas markets, with 20 percent of the world's oil and gas typically passing through the strait.To mitigate the impact of the strait's closure, countries in the Middle East are turning to alternative routes for energy exports. Three major pipelines in the region are being explored as potential solutions:Saudi Arabia's East-West PipelineThe East-West Pipeline, also known as the Petroline, is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. With a capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. However, it currently only has the capacity to supply 5 million bpd for exports.UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil PipelineThe Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the ADCOP or Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, has a capacity of 1.5 million bpd. Oil exports from Fujairah have risen in the past month, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared to 1.17 million bpd in February.Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil PipelineThe Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, has a capacity of 1.6 million bpd but currently only carries around 200,000 bpd. Iraq is among the top five global producers of oil and the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).Can these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?While these pipelines can take on some of the capacity of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only around 9 million bpd, compared to 20 million bpd for the strait. Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed. This has led to a broadening of the global energy crisis, with the economic outlook darkening across Asia, Europe, and beyond.Japan has responded by releasing 80 million barrels of oil from its national reserves, enough to last for 45 days. The country's reliance on Middle Eastern crude oil imports stands at 90 percent.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that the conflict will have a significant impact on the UK economy, predicting inflation of 4 percent this year. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has stated that Iran cannot be allowed to hold the global economy hostage.The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy on Iran has led to the emergence of the TACO trade, an acronym that stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. This phenomenon refers to investors betting that the US president will back down from his threats, resulting in profits for those who bought in.Observers note that Trump's inconsistent messaging has created an opportunity for investors to bet on his policy reversals. For example, Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from 48 hours to five days, and later promised to hold off from attacks on Iran's energy facilities for an additional 10 days. This type of about-face has opened the door to investors willing to bet that the US president will back down.Lena Komileva, chief economist at consultancy firm (g+)economics, notes that global markets have been less inclined to rebound after Trump's Iran-related policy reversals compared to similar shifts in response to his tariff policies. This is due to the complexity of the conflict and the unique objectives of the parties involved.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim revealed in a televised address that Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has allowed Malaysian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with 'early clearance'. This development comes as the global energy market faces significant disruptions due to the ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel.Anwar expressed gratitude to Pezeshkian for the clearance, which will enable Malaysian oil tankers and their crews to continue their journey home. While he did not specify the number of vessels cleared or the conditions for safe passage, he emphasized that Malaysia is working to secure the release of its ships and personnel.The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway, facilitating about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Iran has claimed the right to control the strait and has been responsible for several attacks on commercial vessels in the region. Despite Iran's assertion that the strait is open to non-aligned ships, there have been reports of Iranian authorities demanding tolls of up to $2 million for safe passage.Malaysia, a net energy exporter and one of the world's top LNG suppliers, imports nearly 70% of its crude oil from the Gulf region. Anwar noted that while Malaysia is better positioned than other nations due to its state-run oil and gas company Petronas, the country will still face impacts from the energy supply disruptions. To mitigate these effects, the government plans to implement fuel conservation measures, including reducing subsidized petrol quotas and encouraging civil servants to work from home.Anwar warned that food, fertilizer, and oil prices are likely to rise due to the disruptions. He emphasized that Malaysia is taking steps to address these challenges, adding that some countries are experiencing far worse impacts than Malaysia.

India has taken a significant step to shield its consumers from the impact of rising global energy prices, slashing fuel taxes in the face of increasing tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The move aims to prevent a sharp increase in fuel prices that could have been triggered by the crisis.Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri announced on Friday that the government had decided to reduce petrol duties from 13 rupees ($0.14) per litre to 3 rupees ($0.032) per litre. Additionally, the 10-rupee (0.11) per litre duty on diesel has been completely removed, effective immediately.The decision comes as oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel following Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the US launched attacks on February 28. India, being the world's third-largest crude importer, relies heavily on this passageway for its crude oil supply, with about 40 percent of its crude coming through the Strait of Hormuz.Despite concerns about potential shortages, authorities have assured that there is no shortage of crude and that current reserves will cover 74 days. The government also moved to quash rumours of an impending lockdown, with Minister Puri stating that such claims are 'completely false' and that India is 'resilient.'The impact of the tax cuts on pump prices for ordinary consumers remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that oil companies previously selling at a loss are likely to benefit from the tax reductions. According to economist Madhavi Arora from Emkay Global, the annualised fiscal hit from these cuts is estimated at nearly 1.55 trillion rupees ($16.3bn).In a related move, finance authorities have reimposed export taxes on diesel and aviation fuel, raising them to 21.5 rupees ($0.23) and 29.5 ($0.31) rupees per litre respectively. This comes after the taxes were previously scrapped in 2024.

US markets witnessed a significant downturn on Thursday, marking their biggest slump since the onset of the US-Israel war with Iran. The Dow closed 450 points down, while the S&P 500 dipped 1.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.3%, plunging into correction territory, which occurs when an index falls at least 10% below its most recent peak. The conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, reaching levels not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the end of the day on Thursday, Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was about $107 a barrel, while US crude hit $93 a barrel. Average US gas prices at the pump reached $3.98 a gallon, according to AAA. Despite the soaring prices, Donald Trump said that oil prices “have not gone up as much as I thought” during a cabinet meeting on Thursday. He predicted that prices would “come back down to where it was, and probably lower,” and that the impact on the stock market would reverse once the conflict ends. Markets have been growing weary of Trump's mixed signals on the US's stance in negotiations with Iran. Stocks dipped on Thursday morning after Trump posted a warning to Iranian negotiators that they “better get serious, before it’s too late.” However, later in the morning, Trump said that there were “very substantial talks” happening with Iran and that the country allowed 10 oil tankers to pass the blocked strait of Hormuz. The White House announced it will extend a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes by 10 days, until 6 April. A new report estimates US inflation will average 4.2% this year, compared with an average of about 2.6% in 2025, according to the Organization for Economic and Cooperation and Development (OECD). The increase in inflation reverses what was expected to be strong growth for the global economy before the conflict began.

The UK government has taken a significant step in its ongoing efforts to counter Russia's attempts to evade Western sanctions. Armed forces have been authorized to board Russian oil tankers in British waters, a move aimed at disrupting Moscow's 'shadow fleet' of vessels.This fleet, comprising over 600 vessels targeted by sanctions from the EU, UK, and US, uses tactics such as false national flags and opaque ownership structures to export Russian crude oil while avoiding Western sanctions. The new rules apply specifically to vessels sanctioned by the UK.The Royal Navy has previously collaborated with allies to take action against these vessels. For instance, last week it helped track a sanctioned Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean, which was subsequently boarded by the French navy.The UK's move is part of a broader strategy to hamper Russia's economy and, consequently, its war efforts in Ukraine. Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that the goal is to 'starve Putin's war machine of the dirty profits that fund his barbaric campaign in Ukraine.'However, Russia has warned that direct action against shadow fleet vessels could lead to direct conflict. A senior Russian official, Nikolai Patrushev, suggested that Moscow could deploy its navy to protect Russian-linked vessels from potential European seizures.The UK's defense secretary, John Healey, previously suggested using 'military options' against sanctioned vessels, with any seized oil potentially being sold and the proceeds sent to Ukraine.Before any ship is boarded, its situation will be examined by law enforcement, military, and energy market specialists, with a recommendation made to ministers. Seizure could be followed by criminal proceedings against the owners, operators, and crew for breaches of UK sanctions legislation.

The UK inflation rate held steady at 3% in February, according to official figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This stability comes before the recent surge in global energy costs triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.The consumer prices index (CPI) remained at the same level as the previous month, in line with economists' expectations. However, it still stands well above the government's 2% target. The annual rate of food inflation saw a slight decrease, driven by drops in prices of olive oil, flour, and pizza. Despite this, the Food and Drink Federation warned that this could be 'the calm before the storm'.The outlook for inflation has significantly shifted since the onset of the Middle East conflict. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important shipping route, has sent oil and gas prices soaring. As recently as last month, the Bank of England was forecasting CPI inflation to fall to the 2% target in the second quarter of the year. However, with the current situation, markets now expect the next move in interest rates to be up.Grant Fitzner, the ONS chief economist, noted that the largest upwards driver was the price of clothing, which rose this month but fell a year ago. This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.The ONS also reported that core inflation, which excludes volatile factors including food and fuel, was higher in February than a month earlier, at 3.2%, up from 3.1% in January. Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the government's plan to protect people from unfair price rises and support those facing higher heating oil costs.

Japan will begin releasing its largest-ever oil reserves this week, according to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The decision aims to cushion the country against possible energy shortages triggered by the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran and its impact on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The government has approved the release of 15 days' worth of private-sector reserves and will start releasing state-owned reserves on Thursday. This move follows concerns that the conflict in the Middle East will continue to disrupt oil supplies. Japan, a resource-poor nation with a significant economy, imports over 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, making it particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions in the region. The release includes about 80 million barrels of stockpiled oil, equivalent to 45 days of domestic demand. This is 1.8 times the quantity made available after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster in 2011. As of last year, Japan held reserves of approximately 470 million barrels of oil, enough for 254 days of domestic consumption. In addition to the oil reserve release, the government has introduced subsidies for fuel products to cap gasoline prices at about ¥170 ($1.10) per liter. This move comes after the average retail price of gasoline reached a record ¥190.8 per liter. The subsidies will be reviewed weekly based on oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has also triggered concerns among Japanese consumers about the availability of essential goods, including toilet paper. In response, the trade and industry ministry has advised consumers against hoarding toilet paper, urging them to make rational purchasing decisions based on accurate information.

Iran has granted safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to ships from select countries, including Pakistan, India, and Turkey, despite its ongoing war with the United States. The strait, a vital waterway for global oil shipments, has been effectively blocked since the conflict began on February 28, causing oil prices to skyrocket above $100 per barrel.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was 'closed' and warned that any vessels attempting to cross would be 'set ablaze' by the IRGC and the navy. This move led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising 2.5 percent to $105.70 on Monday, more than 40 percent higher than before the war began.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed that Tehran had been approached by several countries seeking safe passage for their vessels, with the decision ultimately resting with the military. He confirmed that a group of vessels from 'different countries' had been allowed to pass through, although details were not provided.Pakistan was one of the first countries to have a ship pass through the strait, with a Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker called Karachi sailing out of the Gulf on Sunday. India also secured permission for some of its vessels to pass through, with two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas safely crossing the strait on Saturday.In addition, Turkey obtained permission for one of its ships to pass through the strait after authorities received approval from Tehran. China is reportedly in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for its crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers, with 45 percent of China's oil imports passing through the strait.Meanwhile, France and Italy have requested talks with Iran regarding safe passage for their ships, according to reports. The US has proposed a naval coalition to secure the strait, but countries such as Germany and Greece have ruled out military involvement.