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Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel and global stocks fell after weekend talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement and Donald Trump imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US president announced the blockade on Sunday, targeting Iranian vessels and ships that have paid a toll to Iran for passage through the strait, in an attempt to choke off the flow of Iranian oil.US Central Command said it would start at 10am ET (5.30pm in Iran and 3pm in the UK), blocking all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas, in effect seizing control of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The news drove oil and gas prices sharply higher again, after the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced on Wednesday prompted a sharp fall in energy prices, and crude ended the week below the psychological $100 a barrel threshold.Brent crude rose by nearly 7% to $101.74 a barrel on Monday morning, while US crude is up more than 8% to $104.69 a barrel. Gas prices also increased, with the British wholesale gas contract for May soaring by 11.7% to 122.5p a therm. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said last week they expected oil prices to stay high in the second quarter, above $100 a barrel, before easing in the second half of the year.Most Asian stock markets fell on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index losing 1%, while Chinese stocks rose slightly. Sentiment was helped by Beijing’s announcement of a 10-initiative strategy aimed at deepening ties with Taiwan. European stocks also fell, led by airlines including Lufthansa, Wizz Air, easyJet and British Airways parent IAG. The FTSE 100 index in London lost 0.4%, dropping 45 points to 10,555. Germany’s Dax fell 1%, Italy’s FTSE MiB slipped 0.7% and Spain’s Ibex was down 1.1%. With oil and gas prices rising sharply higher, energy companies such as BP and Shell are rallying.Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at the broker Phillip Nova, said: “In today’s environment, every barrel of risk added to oil markets carries an inflation price tag for the global economy.” She added: “The market reaction underscores a simple but powerful reality: Hormuz risk is not theoretical; it is structural, and it is real.”Interest rate expectations have shifted again; investors now see an 84% chance of two rate increases from the Bank of England this year to tackle rising inflation, up from 60% on Friday. Before the Iran war, the central bank was expected to cut rates. The price of gold fell 0.4% to $4,730.75 an ounce as the blockade fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has taken a critical turn with Donald Trump's announcement that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is crucial for global oil shipments, and any disruption could have significant economic impacts. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that approaching military vessels to the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. This development has led to a surge in oil prices, with US crude oil rising 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 7% to $102.29. The blockade, set to begin on Monday morning, will be implemented by US Central Command (Centcom) and will affect all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. This move is part of a broader strategy that may include resuming limited military strikes in Iran, according to reports. The situation has drawn international attention, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stating that his government has not been asked to participate in the blockade and is keen on continuing negotiations between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed Trump's threats, asserting that they would have no effect on the Iranian nation.

The US has announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which about 20% of global oil passes. This move comes after ceasefire talks with Iran ended without an agreement over the weekend. The blockade, threatened by President Donald Trump, aims to pressure Iran into reopening the strait, which has been effectively closed since February 28. Trump's announcement on social media stated that the US Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. He accused Iran of 'WORLD EXTORTION' and threatened that any person who attacked US vessels would be 'BLOWN TO HELL!' However, the blockade's scope appears to have been scaled down, with US Central Command (Centcom) stating it would be confined to vessels transiting through Iranian ports, permitting passage of ships headed to ports belonging to America's Gulf allies. The blockade is set to come into effect at 10am ET (2pm GMT). The UK will not be involved in any blockade of the strait, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has stated that his country was not asked to participate. Oil prices have surged following Trump's announcement, with US crude increasing 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil rising 7% to $102.29. Experts warn that the blockade could lead to higher oil prices, but much depends on its 'scope and implementation.' The managing director of research at ClearView Energy Partners, Kevin Book, noted that leaner volumes generally mean tighter markets and higher prices. Iranian and/or Houthi reprisals against Gulf producers' alternative routes could drive prices still higher. The blockade could cut off one of the Iranian regime's major sources of funding but might also have a short-term negative effect on global prices. About 100 tankers have transited the strait since the US and Israel started bombing Iran, most carrying Iranian oil products bound for China and India. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have stated that any warships approaching the strait to enforce a blockade would be considered in breach of the current ceasefire and would be dealt with strongly. Trump floated the possibility of a resumption of US strikes inside Iran, citing missile factories as one possible target.

President Donald Trump declared that the United States will commence a naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz in response to the breakdown of peace talks between Washington and Tehran held in Islamabad.In addition to the blockade, Trump warned that American forces could target Iran’s water‑treatment plants, power stations and bridges unless Tehran abandons its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability.The announcement came after a 21‑hour round of direct negotiations between the two sides collapsed on Sunday morning, ending a brief cease‑fire that had been brokered by the United States, Israel and Iran.U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance, who led the American delegation, said Iran refused to renounce the possibility of developing nuclear weapons, while Iranian officials accused Washington of failing to earn their trust.Trump instructed the U.S. Navy to begin “blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz” starting Monday at 10 a.m. ET (14:00 GMT). He also accused Iran of “extortion” for charging tolls to tankers and announced a de‑mining operation in the waterway’s central sector, although the exact number of mines remains unclear.The Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned that any warships enforcing the blockade would be deemed a breach of the cease‑fire and would be met with a strong response, insisting the strait remains under Iranian control.Two U.S. destroyers transited the strait on Saturday without incident, a move the Pentagon described as the start of a mine‑clearance mission, even as Iranian media claimed the vessels were threatened as they departed.Financial markets reacted sharply: U.S. crude oil jumped 8% to $104.24 per barrel and Brent crude rose 7% to $102.29, reflecting concerns that the blockade could disrupt the flow of roughly 100 tankers that have been paying up to $2 million each for passage.Vance reiterated that the United States seeks a clear, affirmative commitment from Iran not to pursue a nuclear weapon, describing it as the “core goal of the president.”Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf argued that Tehran offered “constructive initiatives,” but U.S. demands were “excessive” and hindered an agreement, according to the semi‑official Tasnim news agency.Pakistani mediators urged both parties to avoid renewed hostilities and pledged to arrange fresh talks, emphasizing the importance of upholding the existing cease‑fire.In a televised interview, Trump warned that if a deal cannot be reached, the United States may resume bombing Iran, specifically targeting its water‑supply infrastructure, desalination plants and power generation facilities.Regional fallout continued: at least 11 people were killed in southern Lebanon amid a series of Israeli strikes, while Pope Francis called for an immediate cease‑fire, expressing solidarity with the Lebanese people.The broader conflict, now six weeks old, has claimed more than 3,000 lives in Iran, over 2,000 in Lebanon, dozens in Israel and several Gulf states, and has inflicted extensive damage on critical infrastructure across the Middle East.

The collapse of talks between the US and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, fuelling fears of a prolonged energy crisis and rising inflation. The failure to reach a peace deal has left large numbers of oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, with oil prices fluctuating wildly in response to the uncertainty.US Vice-President JD Vance has blamed the collapse of the talks on Tehran's refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian sources have hit back at what they describe as 'excessive' demands from Washington. The stalemate has raised concerns about the long-term impact on the global economy, with governments and central banks warning of higher inflation and interest rates.Mohamed El-Erian, an adviser to Allianz, has cautioned that uncertainty will continue to dominate assessments of the financial impact from the conflict. 'Absent a swift resumption of negotiations, the immediate reaction of financial markets when they open for the trading week will be to push oil prices higher and borrowing costs higher,' he said.The International Monetary Fund and World Bank's spring meetings in Washington will focus on the war's impact on the global economy, with the IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, indicating that the fund will present three scenarios predicting lower economic growth and higher inflation. The IMF is also expected to highlight the impact on vulnerable economies.In the short term, oil prices have ended the week lower, with Brent crude at $94.26 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at $95.63 a barrel. However, global stock markets have rebounded after a temporary ceasefire was announced, with the S&P; 500 close to its level before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began.

Shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted even after Washington and Tehran announced a two‑week ceasefire on Tuesday, dampening expectations of a swift end to one of the most severe energy disruptions in recent memory. According to ship‑tracking data from market‑intelligence firm Kpler, only five vessels crossed the waterway on Wednesday, down from eleven the day before, and seven managed the passage on Thursday. The figure is a stark contrast to the pre‑conflict norm of 120‑140 daily transits that the strait typically handled before the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, are still stranded in the Gulf, as reported by Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Ana Subasic, Kpler’s trade‑risk analyst, warned that even if the ceasefire holds, safe‑passage capacity is likely to stay limited to 10–15 ships per day, reflecting shipowners’ caution and the absence of any toll‑free guarantee. The strait channels roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. Its continued blockage therefore sustains pressure on global energy markets. After a brief dip, Brent crude rose to $96.39 a barrel at 02:00 GMT on Friday, having slipped below $95 the previous day. U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire’s “safe passage” clause, labeling Tehran’s performance “very poor” in a Truth Social post. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, countered that the United States had not honored its commitments, urging Washington to choose between a genuine ceasefire and “continued war” linked to Israel’s actions in Lebanon. Maritime veteran C Uday Bhaskar described the atmosphere in the strait as one of “uncertainty and anxiety,” noting that shipping firms remain fearful, especially after Iranian statements about newly laid mines. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE’s state‑run oil giant ADNOC, echoed the sentiment, asserting that Iran’s conditional permissions amount to “coercion, not freedom of navigation.” Asian equity markets responded positively to the tentative easing of oil price pressure. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.8 %, South Korea’s KOSPI rose about 2 %, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained roughly 1 % in early Friday trading. While the ceasefire offers a diplomatic window, the reality on the water remains stark: the Strait of Hormuz is far from open, and the global energy system continues to feel the strain of constrained maritime traffic.

European airports have issued an urgent warning that jet fuel shortages could materialise within the next three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.Airports Council International (ACI) Europe addressed a letter to EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, stating the bloc is only three weeks away from a systemic shortage.The threat is linked to the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, which has effectively shut the strait—a key shipping lane for Gulf oil exports—pushing Brent crude to around $96 per barrel, up from roughly $72 before the hostilities.ACI warned that without a stable resumption of traffic through Hormuz within three weeks, a “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”Jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled year‑on‑year, reaching $1,650 per tonne according to IATA data. Europe’s price surge stands at 138%, while Asia has seen a 163% increase.Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary highlighted that the United Kingdom, heavily dependent on Kuwaiti supplies, is the most vulnerable market in Europe.Shipping data from Vortexa shows the last Gulf‑origin jet fuel cargo for Europe is due in Copenhagen tomorrow, following a partial delivery to Rotterdam earlier this week. The final tanker bound for the UK arrived in Kent on Tuesday.More than 60% of Europe’s jet fuel traditionally comes from Gulf refineries, with over 40% shipped via the Hormuz corridor. The blockade forces European buyers into direct competition with Asian carriers for alternative cargoes.Australian investment bank Macquarie notes that jet fuel lacks the pipeline alternatives available to crude oil, making the market especially vulnerable. Even if shipments resume, the refined‑product market could take two to three months to normalise, lagging behind crude markets.Airlines have already begun trimming schedules and raising fares, a trend that will feed into broader inflationary pressures. A genuine shortage could force travelers and businesses to postpone trips and shipments, deepening economic damage.ACI called for proactive EU monitoring and action, warning that the peak summer travel season—critical to many economies—could be hit hard if fuel supplies falter.IATA director‑general Willie Walsh cautioned that even with the strait reopened, restoring adequate supply will take months due to disrupted refining capacity in the Middle East. IATA had previously projected a 4.9% year‑on‑year growth in passenger traffic for 2026.

Oil and gas markets rallied on Thursday as investors grappled with the shaky outlook for the two‑week Iran‑Israel ceasefire. Brent crude rose more than 2% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed nearly 3% to $97.23, still shy of the $100 threshold that many traders watch. The previous session had seen Brent plunge 13.29% to a four‑week low of $94.75. In the gas sector, the UK month‑ahead contract rebounded 1% to 115.35p per therm after a 15% drop the day before. European natural‑gas futures also recovered, edging toward €46/MWh from a five‑week trough of €45.30. The price uptick reflects growing scepticism about the durability of the ceasefire announced a day earlier by the United States and Iran, which included a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. UAE and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States and Israel of breaching several agreement points. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “regret‑inducing response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue. The latest Israeli barrage killed at least 254 people and wounded 837, prompting the Fars news agency to note that oil‑tanker traffic through the strait had been halted. Former President Donald Trump used his Truth Social platform to threaten that U.S. forces would remain in the region until a “real agreement” is fully honoured, warning that any non‑compliance would trigger “stronger than anyone has ever seen before” military action. Asian equity markets reacted negatively: Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.2%. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 trimmed 0.1% after a near‑4% rally the day before, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower opening on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted that market stress has eased compared with 24 hours earlier, as the ceasefire news generated renewed optimism and reduced fears of a stagflationary shock. On the diplomatic front, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Vice‑President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, with initial talks slated for Saturday morning. Jefferies chief European economist Mohit Kumar argued that, despite its fragility, the truce is likely to hold because of the “mutually assured destruction” calculus. He added that both sides now see a ceasefire as the lesser‑evil, given the escalating costs of continued conflict and the strategic challenges of securing cheap drone interceptors and a reliable Hormuz passage.

The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide temporary relief, but the oil crisis triggered by their conflict is far from over. After 40 days of fighting, the two nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran's 10-point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. The strait has been effectively closed since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices dropped to $92 on Wednesday, down from over $110 for much of the war. However, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs. With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines.Economists warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.Shipping data shows that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent. Iraq's crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.The 206 million barrels of Gulf oil lost since the start of the war would fill approximately 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the workhorse supertankers of the global energy trade. A single VLCC stretches nearly 330 metres (1,080 feet) in length, nearly the same height as the Eiffel Tower in Paris.To put that in more practical terms, if you drove a pick-up truck that averages 24 miles per gallon (or 10 litres per 100km), one barrel of crude oil would carry you about 730km or 450 miles. That is about the distance from New York City to Cleveland, Ohio.For much of the war, oil has traded above $100 per barrel, hitting a peak of nearly $128 on April 2. The value of 206 million lost export barrels at various oil prices is significant, with Brent crude being the global benchmark.