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The Middle East remains embroiled in a cycle of violence, with Iranian barrages targeting Israel, Gulf Arab states, and northern Iraq on Tuesday. This escalation comes a day after US President Donald Trump claimed that the US was in 'very good' talks with Iran to end the war in the region soon.Despite Trump's optimistic remarks, multiple official sources in Tehran have denied any talks are underway. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated, 'No negotiations have been held with the US … fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.' The Iranian government remains wary of US offers of negotiation, citing past experiences where talks were followed by attacks, such as the surprise attack that killed the supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials.Potential intermediaries, including Pakistan, Oman, Egypt, and others, have confirmed tentative efforts to establish channels of communication between Washington and Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been engaging in discussions with his counterparts in several countries, including Azerbaijan, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, and Turkmenistan.The diplomatic activity follows a significant escalation of threats between the US and Iran over the weekend, with both sides trading warnings of potential strikes. On Monday, Trump delayed a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for shipping or face targeted airstrikes on its power stations. This brief reprieve drove down oil prices and boosted stocks, with the deadline now set to expire on Friday.Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel will continue to strike Iran and Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Islamist militant movement. The Israeli prime minister warned, 'There's more to come.'The conflict has already had significant economic impacts, with oil prices rising to $104 (£77) a barrel, up more than 40% since Israel and the US started the war on 28 February. Analysts warn of durable and deep disruption to the supply of oil and gas from the region, even if hostilities end rapidly, with severe economic consequences worldwide.

The UK's manufacturing sector has been hit by the sharpest rise in cost inflation since Black Wednesday in 1992, as the conflict in the Middle East drives up oil prices and disrupts supply chains. According to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), cost inflation in manufacturing jumped to its highest level since October 2022, marking the largest month-on-month change since 1992.The rapid increases in costs mainly relate to fuel, transportation, and energy-intensive raw materials. The composite PMI index, covering services and manufacturing, stood at 51, suggesting the economy is still expanding, but at a sharply slower pace than the 53.7 seen in February.Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P; Global Market Intelligence, said: "Output growth across manufacturing and services has slowed to a crawl as companies blamed lost business directly on the events in the Middle East, whether through heightened risk aversion among customers, surging price pressures, higher interest rates, or via travel and supply chain disruptions."The CBI's survey of the retail sector also showed the fastest annual decline in sales volumes since April 2020, with the balance of retailers reporting rising sales at -52% in March, down from -43% in February.Martin Sartorius, lead economist at the CBI, said: "Retailers report that weak economic conditions continue to weigh on household spending, with subdued activity also evident across the broader distribution sector."Emily Sawicz, a director and industrials senior analyst at RSM UK, said: "Despite some resilience, geopolitical tensions remain a key concern for UK manufacturers – underscoring that conditions remain highly uncertain. The recovery many hoped to see take hold in 2026 now appears likely to be delayed at best, as rising energy costs and persistent inflation risks threaten to slow momentum."

Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to a temporary ceasefire during the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, which begins on Thursday and lasts until Tuesday. The decision was made amid weeks of deadly violence between the neighboring countries.Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced that the ceasefire was requested by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. He stated that Pakistan is offering this gesture in good faith and in keeping with Islamic norms.However, Tarar also warned that if there are any cross-border attacks, drone attacks, or terrorist incidents inside Pakistan, military operations will immediately resume with renewed intensity.The Taliban government in Afghanistan also confirmed that it would temporarily suspend military operations against Pakistan.The ceasefire comes after Afghanistan accused Pakistan of killing hundreds of people in an air strike on a drug rehabilitation center in Kabul. Pakistan has strongly rejected these claims, stating that it only targets terrorist infrastructure and military locations.The United Nations reported 143 deaths in the incident at the Omar Addiction Treatment Hospital, a 2,000-bed facility. The conflict has led to repeated cross-border clashes and air strikes inside Afghanistan, despite international calls for a ceasefire and concerns about a widening displacement crisis.The World Health Organization (WHO) chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, urged all parties to de-escalate and prioritize peace and health, noting that at least six health facilities in Afghanistan have been affected by the violence since late February.The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the temporary truce as a positive gesture that contributes to de-escalation and promotes calm between the two sides. They hope the pause in fighting will pave the way for a return to a sustainable ceasefire agreement that spares civilian lives and achieves security and stability.

Sri Lanka's government has rejected a request from the United States to land two combat aircraft at Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport in southern Sri Lanka from March 4 to 8. The request was made on February 26, just before the US and Israel launched their military offensive against Iran.President Anura Kumara Dissanayake told Sri Lanka's parliament that the US wanted to bring two warplanes armed with eight antiship missiles from a base in Djibouti. The government turned down the request to maintain Sri Lanka's neutrality in the conflict.The decision comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Iranian missile and drone attacks sending energy prices soaring and fuelling fears of a widening conflict. The US-Israeli war on Iran has sparked widespread concern globally, with many countries refusing to get directly involved while calling for urgent de-escalation.Sri Lanka's president also cited his country's neutrality in denying the US request, saying that had they accepted the US request, they would have had to do the same for Iran, which had also made a request for three naval vessels to make a goodwill visit to Sri Lanka on the same day.In recent weeks, Sri Lanka's navy rescued 32 Iranian crew off IRIS Dena after it was torpedoed by a US submarine off the country's coast, killing at least 84 people. Days later, Sri Lanka evacuated more than 200 crew members from a second Iranian vessel, IRIS Bushehr, after the ship requested assistance from Colombo.

Japan has initiated the release of oil from its emergency reserves in response to the escalating global energy crisis triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict. The crisis has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies.The decision to release oil reserves was announced on Monday through a notice published in the Japanese government's official gazette. This move follows Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's announcement last week to unilaterally release 80 million barrels of oil from stockpiles due to supply concerns arising from Iran's threats against shipping in the strait.The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also pledged to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels to mitigate the market impact of the conflict. Despite these efforts, oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising as much as 3% on Sunday before easing slightly on Monday. As of 05:45 GMT, Brent stood at $104.85 a barrel, marking a more than 40% increase since the start of the war on February 28.Japan, being one of the world's largest oil importers, relies on overseas fossil fuels for about 80% of its energy needs. The country also holds one of the world's largest oil reserves, sufficient to meet 254 days of domestic consumption. Tokyo has stated it has no plans to deploy its navy to the strait following a call from US President Donald Trump for other countries to help unblock the waterway.

Oil prices are continuing to rise as markets see no end in sight to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The critical waterway, which usually transports about one-fifth of the global oil supply, has been brought to a standstill by Iran in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on the country.Brent crude, the most important benchmark for global prices, rose as much as 3 percent on Sunday to top $106 a barrel, before easing slightly early on Monday to $104.63 a barrel, up nearly 1.5 percent. This represents a more than 40 percent increase in global oil prices since the start of the war.US President Donald Trump has called on other countries to help Washington reopen the Strait, but his proposal has received a muted response. None of the countries he appealed to by name – including China, Japan, France, and the UK – have publicly committed to deploying their navies to secure the strait. Japan and Australia have both stated they have no plans to send ships to the critical waterway.The closure of the strait has resulted in what the International Energy Agency has called the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre, no more than five ships have passed through the strait each day since the start of the war, compared with a historical average of 138 daily transits. At least 16 commercial vessels have been attacked in the region since the war began on February 28.Trump has repeatedly stated he is willing to deploy the US Navy to escort commercial shipping through the strait if necessary. However, Trump administration officials have said that warships will not be deployed to the waterway until Tehran's military capacity has been further degraded.

Iran has granted safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to ships from select countries, including Pakistan, India, and Turkey, despite its ongoing war with the United States. The strait, a vital waterway for global oil shipments, has been effectively blocked since the conflict began on February 28, causing oil prices to skyrocket above $100 per barrel.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was 'closed' and warned that any vessels attempting to cross would be 'set ablaze' by the IRGC and the navy. This move led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising 2.5 percent to $105.70 on Monday, more than 40 percent higher than before the war began.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed that Tehran had been approached by several countries seeking safe passage for their vessels, with the decision ultimately resting with the military. He confirmed that a group of vessels from 'different countries' had been allowed to pass through, although details were not provided.Pakistan was one of the first countries to have a ship pass through the strait, with a Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker called Karachi sailing out of the Gulf on Sunday. India also secured permission for some of its vessels to pass through, with two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas safely crossing the strait on Saturday.In addition, Turkey obtained permission for one of its ships to pass through the strait after authorities received approval from Tehran. China is reportedly in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for its crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers, with 45 percent of China's oil imports passing through the strait.Meanwhile, France and Italy have requested talks with Iran regarding safe passage for their ships, according to reports. The US has proposed a naval coalition to secure the strait, but countries such as Germany and Greece have ruled out military involvement.

The economic fallout of the US and Israel's war with Iran is being felt across the globe, with Gulf economies suffering some of the worst damage. Iran has launched continuous attacks on Gulf states since the onset of the conflict on February 28, arguing that it is targeting military bases used by the US for the war.Gulf nations have rejected Tehran's claims, insisting the attacks on them are unjustified. The Iranian strikes have upended energy production and inflicted major disruptions to tourism and travel, putting the region at risk of some of the most severe economic harm since the 1990-1991 Gulf War.According to Khaled Almezaini, an associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed University in Dubai, the region is likely losing hundreds of millions of dollars per day in economic activity due to disruptions to aviation, tourism, shipping routes, and energy exports.Middle Eastern oil producers' daily output declined from 21 million barrels to 14 million barrels after a little more than a week of conflict, according to Rystad Energy. Output is expected to drop substantially further if commercial shipping continues to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to Tehran's threats.Goldman Sachs estimated that Qatar and Kuwait could see their GDPs plunge 14% if the war lasts until the end of April, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia facing contractions of 5% and 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, S&P; Global Ratings has affirmed a 'stable outlook' for Qatar, citing the country's large financial buffers.The war has also spilled over into other critical sectors, particularly tourism and travel, which accounts for about 11% of the GCC's GDP. Airspace closures and restrictions led to 37,000 flight cancellations from February 28 to March 8 alone.In an analysis published last week, the World Travel & Tourism Council estimated that the conflict was costing the region $600m in daily spending by international visitors. The economic fallout could be comparable to historic regional crises if the war drags on.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused the United States and Israel of causing disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil shipments pass.In a phone conversation with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Araghchi called for an end to what he described as military aggression against Iran by the US and Israel. He emphasized that every country and international institution concerned with peace and security must condemn these actions.The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has led to significant increases in oil prices, with Brent crude up 2.5% to $105.70 on Monday, more than 40% higher than before the conflict began on February 28.Several countries are reportedly in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for their ships. A senior adviser to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had announced on March 2 that the strait was effectively 'closed' and threatened to set transiting ships 'ablaze'.US President Donald Trump has proposed a naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but so far, no countries have pledged to join. French President Emmanuel Macron has stated that France will not participate in operations to unblock the strait, but may consider joining an escort system once fighting ends.The European Union is seeking diplomatic solutions to guarantee safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz and mitigate the impact of soaring energy prices on global markets.