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Following Donald Trump's recent claims that the US is engaged in 'strong talks' to end the war with Iran, Qatar took the unusual step of publicly distancing itself from any alleged diplomatic negotiations. The Gulf state's government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari explicitly stated, 'Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts,' adding pointedly, 'If they exist.'This represents a significant departure from Qatar's traditional role as a chief mediator in Middle East conflicts, having previously facilitated negotiations between Israel and Hamas, the US and the Taliban, and peace deals in Lebanon and Sudan.Over the past three weeks, Gulf states have found themselves on the frontlines of the conflict after their mediation efforts to prevent war were ultimately rejected by the US. The pattern of broken negotiations is particularly telling: the US attacked Iran twice during talks aimed at halting the Iranian nuclear program, which were championed by Oman. Discussions last June were halted as the US and Israel conducted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and revived talks in February were similarly undermined when Trump began bombing Tehran before the final round of meetings.Since the war began, Gulf states have been forced to spend billions defending against daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, with their economies and sovereignty suffering substantial damage. Analysts suggest their reluctance to engage with the alleged ceasefire efforts reflects both the heavy toll of continued warfare and lingering suspicion about whether Trump's peace initiatives are genuine or merely a pretext for further escalation.As Bilal Saab, senior managing director of advisory group Trends US and former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, explained: 'They've been burned by their previous experience. They previously thought they played a useful mediating role – until they realised that it was all for naught. Not to mention that they have been directly implicated in the war and are still being attacked by the Iranians. So there's a lot of pent-up frustration and disappointment.'By Wednesday night, the Iranian regime had outright rejected Trump's 15-point plan to end the war, submitted to Tehran via Pakistani generals, as 'extremely unreasonable' and presented their own substantially different proposal.The concern among Gulf states is that any negotiations could become a front for military escalation or even the assassination of additional Iranian leaders. This anxiety is compounded by the simultaneous deployment of thousands of US troops to the region and the persistent fear of being used as pawns in the US and Israel's Middle East strategy.Professor Bader al-Saif of Kuwait University noted: 'Whenever the word negotiation was used by the Trump administration, we unfortunately ended up under the rubric of war.' He emphasized that while Gulf states are reluctant to engage with what they perceive as a potential Trumpian charade, they recognize the critical importance of shaping any realistic peace negotiations that could affect their future.The existential threat to Gulf economic ambitions is particularly concerning. The prospect of Trump ending the war with the current Iranian regime still in place—potentially more vengeful than before and acutely aware of the damage its missiles can inflict on multi-billion-dollar infrastructure—poses significant risks. Additionally, there remains no clear solution to Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the region's oil and gas exports flow.Analysts suggest that beyond relying on US-led negotiations, Gulf states should pursue their own separate dialogue with Iran. As al-Saif stated: 'They shouldn't only count on the US to do the negotiation. They should go and strike a deal with Iran for themselves. This was not our war, and if we can shield ourselves from being impacted any further, we should do it to protect our own national interests.'

Israel stands as the sole nation where overwhelming public support exists for the conflict with Iran, despite the profound impact on daily life. At least 15 people have been killed and hundreds injured by Iranian missiles since the war began in February, with school closures and missile warnings becoming routine. Polling indicates that more than 90% of Jewish Israelis back the war, a figure that sharply contrasts with international sentiment.The global perspective reveals a dramatically different picture. Nearly a month into the fighting, polling shows that 60% of the US public opposes the war with Iran, and just one in four Americans backed the initial strikes. In the Gulf, Europe and Asia, the conflict is widely unpopular as severe economic consequences begin to manifest.According to Emma Graham-Harrison, The Guardian's chief Middle East correspondent based in Jerusalem, many Jewish Israelis view themselves as under siege in a hostile world since the October 2023 massacre. This perception has led many to conclude that an aggressive security policy is the only way to ensure safety, regardless of international reaction.There's a prevailing sentiment in Israel that short-term suffering will lead to long-term security, despite security experts questioning whether Israel has a clear strategy to convert tactical achievements into lasting security. Life in Jerusalem remains restricted, with many working from home and limitations on businesses from cafes to gyms.The public support for the war has not translated into improved political fortunes for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who currently lags in polls for the upcoming general elections. While there is majority support for Netanyahu's decision to launch the war and his handling of it, even among those who don't want to give him another term, his coalition faces challenges in securing enough seats to return him to power.Some Israeli supporters of the war worry that Netanyahu's push to attack Iran has jeopardized the country's crucial relationship with the United States. Historically, Israel's foreign policy has been based on bipartisan ties, but Netanyahu has effectively abandoned that approach to cultivate an extremely close relationship with Trump.Israel's isolation is becoming increasingly apparent as the conflict continues. Unlike historical precedents where Israel achieved security through negotiated agreements with Jordan and Egypt, the current approach emphasizes military power above diplomatic solutions. This isolation is reflected in the fact that Israel may be the only place in the world with broad support for this war, with populations in Lebanon and Iran experiencing the conflict as horrific.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing pressure to raise taxes on businesses generating 'windfall' profits linked to the US-Israel war on Iran to fund emergency cost of living support for UK households.A group of leading charities, campaigners, and trade unions, including Greenpeace UK, the National Education Union, and Tax Justice UK, have written an open letter to Keir Starmer and Reeves, urging the government to strengthen its existing North Sea energy windfall tax and introduce new levies for firms in other sectors that stand to financially benefit from the conflict.The letter highlights that energy companies, banks, agricultural commodities businesses, defence companies, and tech firms are likely to profit from the economic fallout of the war. The group argues that the extra revenue generated from taxing these 'excess profits' could be used to support households struggling with the cost of living and invest in the UK's future energy security.R Reeves has signalled that the government is ready to provide targeted help for households grappling with the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, amid a surge in energy prices since the onset of the war. The chancellor has also warned companies that she will not tolerate corporates profiteering from the crisis, telling bosses that the Competition and Markets Authority has been put on notice to detect and crack down on price gouging.The UK already has a windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas firms, the energy profits levy, which is due to run until 2030. However, Reeves had been planning to ease the tax before the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

The US-Israel war on Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for materials used in the production of various everyday products. As the conflict enters its fifth week, global oil shortages are forcing countries to take severe measures to conserve their reserves. While US gas prices have surged to their highest level in years, the impact of rising oil prices extends far beyond drivers. Oil is a crucial component in the supply chain, powering machines that manufacture goods and fueling trucks that transport them to stores. The price increases come at a time when many Americans are already strained by rising housing costs, grocery bills, and electricity statements. A recent Gallup poll found that a third of Americans have had to skip meals and forego other needs to afford their healthcare. Oil and Gas The average cost of gas in the US has jumped about 30% over the last month, with the national average hitting $3.97, the highest since 2023. Diesel, which fuels many trucks transporting goods, has increased by about 50%, or $1.69 more than it did a year ago. Higher diesel costs could soon affect transportation costs and grocery prices, as roughly 85% of agricultural goods are transported by trucks. The impact of oil and gas shortages on the supply chain can be categorized as first-order effects, such as higher prices at the gas pump, and second-order effects, including potential price increases for crops, semiconductor chips, and medical devices. Fertilizer Farmers are struggling as the spring growing season approaches, facing higher fertilizer costs and falling commodity prices. A third of global urea trade, a solid nitrogen fertilizer, passes through the Middle East region, with about 20% of imported fertilizer to the US coming from Qatar. Nitrogen fertilizer is critical to grow corn, which is cultivated by about 500,000 farmers in the US. The White House has promised to minimize disruptions to the US economy, with alternative sources of fertilizer being sought from around the world. Helium The conflict has disrupted the global helium supply after Iranian attacks in Qatar, the second-largest producer of helium after the United States. Helium is a key import used in aerospace, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and semiconductor chips that power AI. Jet Fuel Increases in oil prices could result in higher airfare and shipping costs. The price of jet fuel has doubled since the start of the war, according to the International Air Transport Association. United Airlines announced last Friday that it would have to cut flights due to the surging cost of fuel. < h2>Mortgage Rates Just as US mortgages were starting to fall in February, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up to its highest level in months, reaching 6.22%. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the overall state of the economy, and the US Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged last week cited uncertainty in the economy, particularly with conflict in the Middle East.

Retailer Next has reported a £1.16bn pre-tax profit for the full year, with the Middle East conflict expected to add only £15m to fuel and air freight costs. This amount, which assumes a three-month disruption, is considered minimal and can be offset by savings elsewhere.Chief Executive Simon Wolfson added £8m to this year's profit forecast as a mechanical read-through from last year's outcome, indicating that trading had been “encouraging” in the UK and “strong” overseas until late February.The main concern for Next is the potential long-term impact of the conflict on supply chain resilience, freight rates, factory gate prices, and consumer demand. Wolfson emphasized that the company has no insight into the duration and implications of the conflict, stating, “As yet, we have no feel for the medium-term effects”.If higher costs persist, Next may put up prices, but this remains “a contingency, not a plan”. The company will provide a clearer view in its first-quarter update in May.Wolfson also offered nuanced insights, suggesting that consumer confidence may not have collapsed as much as some, like the British Retail Consortium, have claimed. He noted that UK consumers tend to react to actual higher prices, not the threat of them.Additionally, Next's spring-summer ranges are already in stores, online, and warehouses, minimizing the immediate need for adjustments. Any increases in fabric costs or production disruptions in Asian factories would mostly affect autumn-winter ranges.The stock market responded positively, with Next's shares rising 5% to £125.40. This resilience could indicate potential for a profit upgrade in May if the £15m in extra costs turns out to be the worst of it.However, no retailer will be immune if the energy price shock persists and the OECD's prediction of UK economic growth of just 0.7% this year materializes.

The Co-op Group has announced that its chief executive, Shirine Khoury-Haq, will step down this weekend after a challenging year that included a cyber-attack and recent claims of a “toxic” culture at the business.Khoury-Haq will depart on 29 March, and Kate Allum, a board member and former boss of the dairy group First Milk, will step in as interim boss while a permanent replacement is sought.The company, which owns more than 800 funeral parlours and an insurance and legal advisory business, as well as operating more than 2,000 convenience stores, reported an underlying loss of £125m. This is a significant drop from a £45m profit the year before, largely due to a £107m profits hit from the damaging IT hack.Khoury-Haq denied that her resignation was linked to the allegations of a toxic culture, stating that her decision to leave was a personal one. She expressed her desire to “go and do something else”.Sales at Co-op fell 2.3% to £11bn in the year to 3 January, following the mutual’s shops being left with gaps on shelves after the cyber-attack, which knocked £285m off sales.The group cited a “contracting convenience market” and “layered cost headwinds” of about £150m during the year, due to increases in employers’ national insurance, pay and packaging taxes.Khoury-Haq’s departure comes a month after reports of concerns about the culture at the top of the group. In February, the Co-op defended the behaviour of its bosses after reports said senior managers had complained of a “toxic” environment at the retailer.

Solar panel sales have surged dramatically since the onset of the Iran war, according to Octopus Energy, with British households increasingly opting for larger rooftop installations to achieve energy independence.The company reported a 54% increase in sales this month compared to the same period last month, marking a significant shift in consumer behavior amid global energy uncertainty.Rebecca Dibb-Simkin, Octopus Energy's chief product officer, observed: "We are seeing a massive shift as people stop just asking and start acting. British families are tired of being held hostage by global fossil fuel prices. By switching to solar and heat pumps, they are becoming their own power stations, locking in low costs and protecting their wallets for the long term."Octopus noted that many customers are choosing "supersize" systems with 12 panels instead of the typical 10-panel arrays. Additionally, heat pump sales have increased by more than 50%, while electric vehicle charger systems have seen a 20% rise in sales.Greg Jackson, Octopus Energy's chief executive, described a "huge jolt" in solar sales compared to February. On March 17, the company reported a 27% increase in solar sales inquiries since the start of the Iran war.Good Energy, another green electricity supplier, confirmed this trend, reporting a doubling of interest in solar panels over the past three months.Nigel Pocklington, Good Energy's chief executive, emphasized: "The most effective way to bring bills down over the long term is to double down on renewables, alongside storage and flexibility, so more of our power comes from predictable, homegrown sources. We should be putting solar on any building that can take it. That's how we cut costs, strengthen energy security and give people real control over the energy they rely on every day."The market is poised for further growth with plug-in solar kits expected to become available from high street retailers and supermarkets in the coming months. The government recently announced that most new homes will likely have solar panels from 2028 and will lift a ban on sales of these kits.Andrew Dickinson, head of infrastructure at Heligan Group, explained: "Given the recent geopolitical events, the UK's reliance on global energy markets has become front and centre. The solution lies in a series of short-term initiatives to address the immediate impact of rising energy prices on homeowners. Plug-in solar is one of these solutions that is expected to lower the barriers to entry for homeowners. The previously lengthy process of roof assessment, design and installation by a specialist technician will no longer be necessary."A recent report from Electrify Britain, backed by Octopus, found that solar panels and heat pumps would significantly reduce vulnerability to fossil fuel price fluctuations. The report "Plug In, Pay Less" revealed that houses using these technologies would be almost immune to fossil fuel price rises: a 30% increase in wholesale gas and oil prices would translate into only a 1.7% rise in energy bills by 2035 for households using no gas or oil appliances.Energy bills are expected to rise by more than £300 this July, according to Cornwall Insight, a consultancy. Jess Ralston, head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, commented: "Predictions of energy bills rising by hundreds of pounds will feel like deja vu to hard-working families as yet another gas price crisis pushes up the cost of living. Many are still saddled with debt from the last gas crisis while Putin and the oil and gas companies stand to benefit."Ralston added: "These wars and the global gas market are clearly beyond the UK's control, so the only way we have to permanently stabilise bills is to cut our use of gas and that means switching to electric heat pumps and renewables that squeeze gas power plants off the grid."Octopus Energy also noted a one-third increase in inquiries about leasing electric vehicles, further indicating a broader shift toward renewable energy solutions among British consumers.

The United States Department of State has approved a significant arms deal worth $16.5 billion to Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Jordan. This move comes as tensions between the US and Iran continue to intensify. The deal includes $8.4 billion worth of arms to the United Arab Emirates, which will be used to purchase drones, missiles, radar systems, and F-16 aircraft. Additionally, the US has approved roughly $8 billion for air and missile defense radar systems to Kuwait. Jordan will receive an additional $70.5 million to cover aircraft and munition support. The State Department stated that the proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by improving the security of a major defense partner. The UAE is considered a force for political stability and economic progress in the Middle East. This arms deal comes amid ever-increasing tensions between the US and Iran. The administration of US President Donald Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran on February 28, prompting fears of a protracted regional conflict. The war has also caused energy prices around the world to surge. Iran has largely choked off tanker shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas travels. Gas prices in the United States have jumped from $3.10 per gallon ($0.82 per litre) on average this time last month to $3.88 ($1.02 per litre) on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). The principal contractors in Thursday’s proposed sales will include RTX Corporation, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin Corporation. Despite the deals, all three companies’ stocks are trending downward on Wall Street. The Pentagon is seeking more money to fund the war, with the US Department of Defense seeking an additional $200 billion, according to The Associated Press. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged that he was seeking a significant spending boost from Congress.

QatarEnergy has invoked force majeure on certain long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts, impacting customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. This decision comes as the company faces production and supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.The force majeure clause, commonly included in contracts, allows a party to be excused from its obligations under unforeseen circumstances. This is not an isolated incident, as petroleum companies in Kuwait and Bahrain have also recently invoked force majeure.The global energy market has been significantly affected since the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran on February 28. Iranian missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf region, have targeted crucial oil and gas facilities. These actions have led to international condemnation and have essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass.QatarEnergy's CEO, Saad al-Kaabi, recently reported that an Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas facility resulted in the loss of about 17 percent of the country's LNG export capacity. This damage is expected to cause an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatens supplies to Europe and Asia. The repairs are anticipated to sideline 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year for three to five years.The conflict escalated after the Israeli military targeted Iran's offshore South Pars gasfield, prompting Qatar and other Gulf countries to condemn the attacks on energy infrastructure. These actions are viewed as threats to global energy security and violate international law and the United Nations Charter.