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At least 50 new accounts on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, made substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars. These bets were placed despite escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump and few signals of an imminent deal.An analysis of blockchain data shows that one wallet, created on Tuesday at 10am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8¢ and cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6, won $125,500.The trading pattern of newly created accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets has raised questions about insider trading and the need for regulation in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives have introduced legislation to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”Polymarket and other industry players, including Kalshi, have acknowledged the need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.

The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide temporary relief, but the oil crisis triggered by their conflict is far from over. After 40 days of fighting, the two nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran's 10-point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. The strait has been effectively closed since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices dropped to $92 on Wednesday, down from over $110 for much of the war. However, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs. With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines.Economists warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.Shipping data shows that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent. Iraq's crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.The 206 million barrels of Gulf oil lost since the start of the war would fill approximately 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the workhorse supertankers of the global energy trade. A single VLCC stretches nearly 330 metres (1,080 feet) in length, nearly the same height as the Eiffel Tower in Paris.To put that in more practical terms, if you drove a pick-up truck that averages 24 miles per gallon (or 10 litres per 100km), one barrel of crude oil would carry you about 730km or 450 miles. That is about the distance from New York City to Cleveland, Ohio.For much of the war, oil has traded above $100 per barrel, hitting a peak of nearly $128 on April 2. The value of 206 million lost export barrels at various oil prices is significant, with Brent crude being the global benchmark.

Since its inauguration in 1875, Mumbai’s Sassoon Dock has transitioned from a Gulf‑bound trading hub to the beating heart of the city’s fishing sector. Today, the once‑bustling harbour is marked by an unsettling silence.Rows of fishing boats sit idle under the morning sun, their colourful flags fluttering against the skyline. The familiar chorus of net‑unloading, diesel‑engine rumble, ice‑hauling and fish‑monger shouts has faded.Boat owner Shekhar Chogle, weather‑worn from years at sea, has been compelled to keep his vessel moored since the conflict began. Plummeting earnings, relentless labour costs and diesel prices soaring above $1.20 per litre ($4.54 per US gallon) have rendered fishing operations virtually impossible.The dock’s diesel pump now sits abandoned, draped with a wilted marigold garland. A worker returns from the petrol station empty‑handed, his wooden barrow holding six unfilled containers, underscoring the fuel shortage that has crippled cooperatives that normally supply affordable fuel, ice and equipment to fishers.This fuel crisis reverberates beyond Mumbai, affecting fishing communities throughout India and wider Asia. Fishers confront a stark choice: stay ashore and forfeit income, or brave the sea at the risk of further financial loss, jeopardising both individual families and entire coastal economies.A recently announced two‑week ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel offers a glimmer of hope, yet analysts warn that normalising fuel supplies will take time.For Chogle, the clock is ticking. “Our income has dropped significantly since we have not been able to take our boat out to sea,” he lamented.Despite the soaring fuel costs, a few boats still venture out. Morning markets persist, though catches are modest. Women in vibrant saris haggle over the limited fish, and a mother balancing a baby on her hip scrutinises each purchase, weighing cost against necessity.“If diesel prices don’t come down soon, I don’t know how we’ll survive,” Chogle warned, encapsulating the precarious future of Mumbai’s once‑thriving fishing trade.

Iran and the United States announced a two‑week ceasefire that will also guarantee safe navigation through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves.The pause comes as the conflict entered its 40th day, with hopes now fixed on a diplomatic breakthrough during talks scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Friday.President Donald Trump declared that the truce would be activated once Tehran fully reopened the waterway, linking the cessation of hostilities to the restoration of a critical global supply route.Celebrations erupted across Iran, and numerous world leaders publicly welcomed the development, describing it as a step toward broader regional stability.The fighting, which has drawn in virtually the entire Middle East, saw Iran claim to target U.S. assets in several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, while Gulf nations accused Tehran of striking civilian infrastructure.Hezbollah’s March 2 attacks on Israel pulled Lebanon into the war, and although Israel has signaled support for the ceasefire, it warned that the agreement does not extend to Lebanon.Against this backdrop, Gulf and neighboring states have issued statements outlining their positions on the ceasefire:Saudi Arabia welcomed the truce, urging an immediate end to regional attacks and calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, emphasizing that the ceasefire should lead to a “comprehensive sustainable pacification.”Qatar described the ceasefire as an “initial step toward de‑escalation,” stressing the need for rapid implementation, full adherence by Iran, and the protection of maritime security and international trade under international law.United Arab Emirates diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash hailed the outcome as a victory for a war the UAE sought to avoid, claiming the nation now possesses greater leverage and capacity to shape regional affairs.Oman expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s mediation and called for intensified efforts to address the root causes of the conflict, aiming for a permanent end to hostilities.Iraq welcomed the ceasefire but urged the United States and Iran to launch “serious and sustainable dialogue” that tackles underlying disputes and rebuilds mutual trust.Egypt framed the truce as a crucial opportunity for negotiations, diplomacy, and dialogue, insisting that any lasting peace must respect freedom of navigation and consider the legitimate security concerns of Gulf states.Turkey supported the ceasefire and pledged backing for the upcoming Islamabad talks, emphasizing the importance of full ground‑level implementation and strict adherence by all parties.Sudan called the two‑week pause a “positive step toward de‑escalation,” highlighting its potential to foster diplomacy and regional stability.

Djibouti, a country with a population of less than a million people and no significant natural resources, has become a crucial hub for foreign military bases. The nation's strategic location at the entrance to the Red Sea, a vital maritime chokepoint through which roughly 12 percent of global maritime trade passes daily, has made it an attractive location for global powers.The country's President, Ismail Omar Guelleh, has leveraged Djibouti's strategic importance to advance his own aims, welcoming bases from the US, China, France, Japan, and Italy. These countries pay significant fees for the privilege of hosting their bases, with the US paying $65 million annually, France $30 million, China $20 million, and Italy and Japan over $3 million each.The Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a narrow corridor barely 30 kilometers wide, is a critical passage for global trade and communication cables. The region's instability, particularly with the US and Israel at war with Iran, has heightened Djibouti's importance. Federico Donelli, author of 'Power Competition in the Red Sea,' notes that Djibouti sits at the center of many global interests, including trade, shipping, and fiber optic connectivity.Djibouti's base-for-cash model is part of a broader development strategy, including significant infrastructure investment from Chinese firms and a new railway linking landlocked Ethiopia to the coast. However, the country's economic benefits have not trickled down to its citizens, with official unemployment near 40 percent and over one in five people living in extreme poverty.The opposition leader, Daher Ahmed Farah, has criticized Guelleh's rule, stating that the country's strategic position and hosting of military bases have not benefited the Djiboutian people. The US embassy has warned Americans to avoid areas near Camp Lemonnier, citing threats against US interests, while Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh has expressed concerns about the Iran war risks pushing Djibouti into deeper economic uncertainty.

The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.

Iran and the United States have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with talks set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday. The ceasefire comes after US President Donald Trump said he was calling off a threat to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges and suspending attacks on the country for two weeks.The truce is contingent on Iran agreeing to the 'complete, immediate and safe opening' of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which a fifth of global oil supply passes. Iran's partial blockade of the strait has disrupted global trade, driving up oil prices and causing fuel shortages worldwide.Iran's National Security Council has confirmed that Tehran has agreed to talks based on a 10-point proposal from Iran. The proposal calls for Iranian dominance and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of all 'US combat forces' from bases in the Middle East, and a halt to military operations against allied armed groups across the region.The proposal also demands 'full compensation' for war damages, the lifting of all sanctions by the US, the United Nations Security Council, and the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad.Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the warring sides had agreed to an 'immediate ceasefire everywhere', including Lebanon and elsewhere. He extended an invitation to US and Iranian delegations to Islamabad on Friday to further negotiate a conclusive agreement.

In a revealing glimpse of the club’s ironclad exclusivity, a 2019 iMessage exchange shows Jeffrey Epstein pleading with Steve Bannon to secure a membership for Paul, Weiss partner Brad Karp. Bannon dismissed the request, describing Augusta’s governing families as "crackers" from the Old South who distrust lawyers and bankers, underscoring the club’s cultural gatekeeping. That anecdote illustrates a broader truth: money alone cannot buy entry to the Masters. Even former President Donald Trump has never been able to force his way onto the Augusta grounds, a rarity among high‑profile U.S. sporting events. Traditionally, most tickets are allocated to lifelong local patrons, a practice that has been frozen since the 1970s. The only official avenue for the public is an annual lottery, where the odds are so slim they make Tiger Woods’ chances of a sixth Green Jacket look generous. In practice, however, a lucrative secondary market emerged, with scalpers selling tickets for up to 50 times face value and operating just outside the 2,700‑foot anti‑scalping boundary mandated by Georgia law. Last year’s Masters turned into a "bloodbath" for the resale industry. An executive from a local hospitality firm reported that around 200 ticket holders were denied entry after the club began rigorously enforcing its anti‑scalping policy. Patrons were sometimes escorted to a room, asked for identification, and interrogated about how they obtained their tickets – a process likened to a police stop. According to insiders, the club’s four‑day tickets now contain RFID chips that allow staff to track each badge’s location nightly. The embedded barcodes allegedly store the buyer’s address, enabling staff to pinpoint resale activity. Some reports claim the club is even purchasing resale tickets en masse to uncover the identities of sellers, then sending a politely worded letter that permanently bans the recipient from the grounds. Ticket platforms have felt the impact. StubHub has introduced a new contract that makes sellers fully liable for any fees or charges if a buyer is turned away, while SeatGeek has ceased offering Masters tickets altogether. This decisive move by Augusta National signals a broader shift in how elite sports events manage secondary markets. Ultimately, the crackdown serves a dual purpose: protecting the club’s brand integrity and reinforcing its reputation as an institution that remains untouched by even the most powerful political figures. As the Masters approaches, the message is clear – the only way onto Augusta’s hallowed fairways is through its own tightly‑controlled channels, not through the influence of money, politics, or the resale trade.

In the spring of 2002, the modest Free Butt pub on Brighton’s seafront buzzed with a restless energy. Future stars such as Natasha Khan, then a university art student, danced atop the bar while the Yeah Yeah Yeahs thundered through their first UK dates. Behind the scenes, band frontmen like Guy McKnight of Eighties Matchbox B‑Line Disaster served pints, and budding engineers like Steve Ansell of Cat on Form fine‑tuned the sound. The atmosphere felt like a rite of passage, where any performer could slip from a cramped stage to national attention.Unlike the neatly branded scenes of New York’s garage‑rock revival or London’s Libertines‑driven hype, Brighton’s early‑2000s scene resisted a single aesthetic. Rock groups emerged from rehearsal rooms and tiny clubs with wildly different looks and sounds, creating a cultural mosaic rather than a monolithic movement.Electrelane’s guitarist recalls recording their debut Rock It to the Moon in a studio once owned by the Levellers, and crafting their sophomore effort inside a former public toilet. These unconventional spaces proved surprisingly fertile, underscoring the city’s DIY spirit.By the turn of the millennium, the big‑beat dominance of Fatboy Slim and Skint Records had faded, making way for a grassroots rock surge. Sea Power relocated from Reading to Brighton, drawn by the city’s “dilapidated charm and fresh sea air”. Their self‑organized Club Sea Power nights at the Lift offered a chaotic yet liberating platform that eventually caught Rough Trade’s attention.Women played a pivotal role in shaping the scene’s infrastructure. Promoters Lisa Lout and Anna Moulson, both still active, booked seminal shows—including the Strokes’ first UK gig at the Lift in 2001—and helped launch the Great Escape festival. Their efforts ensured that bands such as the Pipettes, Electrelane and Bat for Lashes could share stages and media coverage.Artists recall the city’s palpable sense of belonging. Rose Dougall of the Pipettes describes a landscape where “alternative culture was on every street, from vintage shops to the colour of the houses,” and where “small venues made it feel attainable to launch a project.” Similarly, Brakes frontman Eamon Hamilton contrasts Brighton’s walk‑able, collaborative vibe with London’s darker, more competitive energy.Music journalism mirrored the scene’s intensity. Everett True and photographer Steve Gullick launched Careless Talk Costs Lives in 2002, a deliberately short‑run magazine that championed female writers and bands at a time when the industry was still heavily male‑dominated.As rents surged through the 2010s, many of the cheap flats, rehearsal rooms and iconic venues that underpinned the scene vanished. The Free Butt closed, independent record stores shuttered, and the once‑abundant low‑cost infrastructure dwindled, prompting a migration of creative energy down the coast to places like Margate, Ramsgate, Folkestone and Shoreham.Nevertheless, the remnants of Brighton’s network continue to nurture new talent, from the Kooks to Dream Wife and Gazelle Twin. The city’s strength lies not in a singular sound but in its capacity to host a “constant collision of wildly dissimilar bands,” allowing artists to develop authentically and fearlessly.