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Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly admitted that appointing former cabinet minister Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to Washington was a mistake, but he refused to step down despite mounting pressure from opposition and within his own party. Key Developments Starmer told Parliament on 21 April 2026 that he would have withdrawn Mandelson’s appointment had he known the Foreign Office had ignored security officials’ advice. The appointment, announced in December 2024, saw Mandelson assume the post in February 2025 before being sacked seven months later. Documents released by a US Congressional committee revealed deeper ties between Mandelson and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, reigniting a scandal that already forced the resignation of Starmer’s former chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Starmer of “throwing officials under the bus” and demanded accountability. The controversy erupts just three weeks before the UK’s local elections, where Labour is projected to lose significant council seats. Data & Market Impact Recent YouGov polling shows Labour’s national support slipping from 38% to 33% after the scandal broke, a 5‑point decline that narrows the party’s lead over the Conservatives. Financial markets reacted modestly; the FTSE 250 index fell 0.4% on the day of Starmer’s statement, reflecting investor caution over political instability. Local election forecasts now predict a 12‑seat loss for Labour in key swing councils such as Birmingham and Manchester. Why This Matters The episode highlights three critical risks for the UK: Government credibility: Missteps in diplomatic appointments erode public trust in the Prime Minister’s judgment and in the vetting processes of the Foreign Office. Electoral consequences: With local elections imminent, a weakened Labour brand could translate into reduced council control, limiting the party’s ability to showcase policy successes before the next general election. International relations: The ambassadorial blunder strains the UK‑US partnership at a time when coordinated action on security and trade is vital. Expert Insight Political analysts note that Starmer’s decision to stay put is a calculated gamble. By attributing blame to the Foreign Office, he attempts to shield his cabinet while preserving the narrative of “due process.” However, the rapid succession of resignations—chief of staff, senior civil servant Olly Robbins—suggests systemic failures in vetting that could fuel a leadership challenge from within Labour’s parliamentary ranks. Moreover, the timing of the scandal, coinciding with the local election cycle, amplifies its electoral damage, as voters often punish perceived incompetence at the ballot box. What Happens Next Potential leadership challenge: Discontented Labour MPs may trigger a confidence vote if polling continues to slide. Reshuffle or resignation: Starmer could opt for a cabinet reshuffle to demonstrate accountability, or he may eventually resign under pressure. Election impact: Labour’s local election campaign will likely pivot to damage control, emphasizing policy achievements over diplomatic controversies. Foreign Office reforms: Expect a parliamentary inquiry into security vetting procedures, potentially leading to stricter oversight mechanisms.

The fragile peace in Ethiopia is shattering as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has formally reinstated the Tigray Government Assembly, effectively nullifying the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and signaling a potential return to hostilities.The Collapse of the Pretoria FrameworkThe TPLF announced via Facebook that its central committee had decided to reinstate the suspended parliament, arguing that the federal government had violated the terms of the peace deal. The party accused the federal administration of withholding funds to pay civil servants and provoking armed conflict within the region. Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF figure, described this move as a "clear repudiation" of the post-war structure established by the African Union.Humanitarian Crisis MetricsThe region is facing a catastrophic recovery phase. The previous conflict resulted in at least 600,000 deaths and 5 million displaced persons. Furthermore, humanitarian assessments indicate that up to 80% of the population requires emergency support due to severe funding shortfalls, particularly following recent US aid cuts.Regional Instability and Diplomatic FalloutThe move threatens to reignite the complex web of alliances that defined the previous war, involving the Eritrean army. The breakdown in relations between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who ended the TPLF's decades-long dominance in 2018, suggests a deepening rift that could destabilize the Horn of Africa.Forecast: A Return to Conflict?Analysts predict a high probability of renewed clashes. With the suspension of the peace deal and the federal government accused of violating the Pretoria Agreement, the window for diplomatic resolution is closing. The international community faces a critical test in preventing a humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray as the conflict risks escalating beyond regional borders.

The Global Regression of Human RightsAmnesty International has delivered a scathing indictment of the current state of global affairs, labeling the leaders of Israel, Russia, and the United States as 'voracious predators' in its 2026 annual report. Released in London, the report argues that these leaders are driving a 'sharp U-turn' away from the international order established after World War II, creating an environment where 'primitive ferocity' can flourish.The 'Predator' Trio and the Erosion of OrderSecretary-General Agnes Callamard specifically targeted Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin, asserting that their actions have had an 'absolutely dramatic' impact on the world. Callamard argued that their conduct emboldens copycats globally, leading to a more aggressive and ferocious international climate than seen just a few years ago. She noted that many governments are now appeasing these leaders or even imitating their behavior, with Spain standing out as a rare European outlier for its criticism of the double standards destroying the international system.Conflict Statistics and the Cost of LawlessnessThe report highlights a grim reality where international laws are being systematically ignored. The data reveals a catastrophic toll on civilian populations across active conflict zones:Iran: >3,000 killed in the US-Israeli assault.Lebanon: Nearly 2,400 killed in Israeli attacks.Gaza: >72,500 confirmed deaths since October 2023.Ukraine: >15,000 killed since the full-scale invasion began.Callamard described these conflicts as products of a 'descent into lawlessness,' noting that no effective steps have been taken against Israel for its repeated violations of basic standards of humanity.The Future Outlook: Resistance vs. NormalizationDespite the bleak assessment, the report identifies pockets of resistance that may shape the future. Amnesty points to Gen Z-led protests, the growing number of states joining South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and the International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrants as signs that the 'lawlessness' is not absolute. The analysis suggests that while the 'predators' are currently winning the battle for dominance, the global resistance movements represent the only viable path toward restoring accountability.

The Passing of a Renaissance MindDesmond Morris, the renowned zoologist, writer, and broadcaster, has passed away at the age of 98, marking the end of an extraordinary career that spanned six decades. Morris was a unique figure in the scientific world, seamlessly transitioning between rigorous academic research, popular science communication, television presenting, and artistic expression. His death represents the loss of one of the last great polymaths of the 20th century, a thinker who could move with equal authority between the worlds of science, art, and popular culture.A Multifaceted Career in Science and MediaMorris began his career as curator of mammals at London Zoo, where he developed his deep understanding of animal behavior. This position led to his first television work, hosting the children's program "Zoo Time" from 1956, which was broadcast from a special studio built within the zoo's grounds. His ability to communicate complex scientific concepts in an accessible manner soon made him a popular figure on British television.Remarkably, Morris was the only person who could credibly transition from curator of mammals at London Zoo to becoming director of the prestigious Institute of Contemporary Arts (ICA) in Pall Mall. This dual career path reflected his unique ability to bridge the gap between scientific rigor and artistic sensibility.The Phenomenon of 'The Naked Ape'Morris's career as an impresario of modern arts was unexpectedly interrupted by the astonishing success of his 1967 book, "The Naked Ape: A Zoologist's Study of the Human Animal." The book, which examined human behavior through an evolutionary lens, became one of the world's bestselling titles, with estimated sales of 18 million copies.The work was groundbreaking in its approach to human society as shaped by evolution. Morris addressed the "intimate details of the human animal as 'the sexiest primate alive,'" including considerations of arousal, copulation, and the development of pair bonds. His central thesis was that "it is the biological nature of the beast that has moulded the social structure of civilisation, rather than the other way round." The book's controversial nature led to its placement on the Catholic Church's index of forbidden books, a distinction Morris accepted as flattery.A Legacy in Science CommunicationMorris's impact on science communication cannot be overstated. In an era when science was often presented as dry and academic, Morris brought a sense of wonder and accessibility to the subject. His work came at a time when public interest in evolutionary psychology was growing, and he struck a chord with the "febrile mood of the times," creating a literary template that later generations of popular science writers would follow.Throughout his career, Morris maintained friendships with scientific luminaries such as Peter Medawar, Niko Tinbergen, JBS Haldane, and Konrad Lorenz, as well as artistic figures like Joan Miró, Henry Moore, Francis Bacon, and Anthony Burgess. He also had a lifelong friendship with his notional competitor, David Attenborough, with whom he shared a passion for bringing science to the public.The Artist's VisionBeyond his scientific and media work, Morris maintained a separate and distinguished career as an artist. His first London exhibition, shared with surrealist master Joan Miró, took place in 1950. In 2019, he had a solo show at Farleys House & Gallery in East Sussex. Morris saw living things as works of beauty and paintings as a form of biology, writing in his 1979 memoir "Animal Days" that he tried "to create a private world in which my own, invented organisms evolved and developed like a personal flora and fauna from my imagination."His final book, "101 Surrealists," was published in 2024, continuing his exploration of artistic movements throughout his life.The Enduring Legacy of Desmond MorrisDesmond Morris leaves behind a legacy that transcends traditional academic boundaries. He was a pioneer in making science accessible to the general public, a gifted communicator who could explain complex evolutionary concepts in engaging ways. His work continues to influence fields as diverse as evolutionary psychology, anthropology, and art.As we reflect on Morris's life and work, we recognize the passing of a unique intellectual force—a man who seamlessly integrated scientific rigor with artistic vision and popular appeal. His contributions to our understanding of human behavior and his ability to communicate that understanding to a broad audience ensure that his influence will continue to be felt for generations to come.

The LeadThe $2 billion weekly spent on the Iran war could have funded a UN humanitarian plan to save 87 million lives, according to Tom Fletcher, head of the UN's humanitarian agency. Fletcher warned that the normalization of violent language from world leaders encourages "wannabe autocrats" worldwide to use similar threats and tactics.The Humanitarian Funding CrisisFletcher, the undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, described a catastrophic humanitarian aid funding crisis amounting to a 50% cut in his budget. His entire target for a hyper-prioritised plan to save 87 million lives is $23 billion, yet he's about $10 billion short of this target.The Financial Trade-Off"For every day of this conflict, $2bn is being spent," Fletcher stated. "We could have funded that [humanitarian plan] in less than a fortnight of this reckless war. Now, of course, we cannot." The war in Iran is having ripple effects globally, with food and fuel inflation reaching close to 20%, which will push more people into poverty in sub-Saharan Africa and east Africa for years to come.Global Political ImplicationsFletcher criticized the normalization of violent language from leaders like Trump, who threatened to "bomb Iran back to the stone ages." He warned this gives freedom to other autocrats worldwide to use similar language and tactics targeting civilian infrastructure, breaching international law. Fletcher described UN relations with the Trump administration as "an absolute rollercoaster ride" and noted the administration's "real-estatecraft" approach differs significantly from traditional statecraft.The Future of Humanitarian AidFletcher revealed he's struggling with whether to accept US aid funding that comes with new conditions on issues like abortion or transgender rights. "The question is do we take that money under those conditions, knowing that it will save millions of lives or not?" He also criticized the UK for forming a "circular firing squad" for over a decade, leaving the country in a "defensive crouch" and undermining its historical leadership in humanitarian aid.

Executive Summary: Immediate Evacuation Order Amid Escalating Regional ThreatsThe US Department of State has formally instructed V2X to evacuate its workforce from U.S. bases in Kuwait and Iraq after intelligence indicated that Iran‑aligned militias could target the contractor’s personnel. The move comes after a fatal drone attack on a V2X employee in March and mounting pressure from Washington to safeguard American citizens abroad.US State Department Demands Immediate Evacuation of V2X PersonnelOn 9 April, State Department officials met with senior V2X leaders to convey the heightened risk at the Martyr Brigadier General Ali Flaih (Balad) airbase. Sources say the U.S. warned that “they’ll kill them” if the company kept staff on site. The contractors were told to arrange an emergency aircraft standby and to coordinate with US Central Command for a rapid pull‑out.Employees stationed at U.S. bases in Kuwait and at the Ali Flaih airbase and Erbil in Iraq.One contractor killed in a night‑time drone strike in March.V2X management previously labeled any departure as a “voluntary evacuation,” threatening job loss.Financial Stakes: The $252 Million LCAP ContractV2X holds a Logistics Civil Augmentation Program (LCAP) contract worth $252 million to provide base operating support and security services in Iraq. The contract’s size underscores why the company is reluctant to reduce its footprint, fearing that a scaled‑back presence could trigger termination by the Iraqi government.Contract value: $252 million for base support services.Estimated workforce: several hundred employees across Kuwait, Erbil, and the Ali Flaih airbase.Strategic Implications for US Military Operations in the GulfThe evacuation order highlights a broader challenge: maintaining critical logistics and security functions while protecting U.S. personnel from proxy attacks. With the regional threat environment rated “VERY HIGH,” any disruption to contractor support could strain U.S. force‑generation and limit rapid response capabilities in the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran confrontation.Potential gaps in base security and logistics if V2X staff depart.Increased reliance on direct DoD assets or alternative contractors.Risk of emboldening Iran‑aligned groups if perceived U.S. influence wanes.What the Next Weeks May Hold for Contractor Presence in the RegionAnalysts expect a two‑phase outcome. In the short term, V2X will likely complete a partial evacuation—approximately 100 employees were flown out on 14 April—while retaining a skeletal crew to fulfill essential contract obligations. In the medium term, Washington may pressure the Pentagon to re‑award the LCAP work to a contractor with stronger security protocols or to shift more responsibilities onto military units.Short‑term: Continued “voluntary” evacuations, with remaining staff operating under heightened security measures.Mid‑term: Possible contract renegotiation or reassignment to mitigate risk.Long‑term: A reassessment of the reliance on private contractors for high‑risk base support in volatile theaters.

The LeadPablo Behrens’ experimental documentary London’s Last Wilderness presents a visually arresting, albeit eccentric, voyage along the Thames estuary. The film draws inspiration from literary figures like Iain Sinclair and JG Ballard, exploring the 'unloved' stretch of water between London and the sea. While the reviewer notes the project is occasionally indulgent and not entirely thought through, it remains largely engaging, offering a unique perspective on the collision between nature and industrial decay.The Aesthetic of DecayThe film creates a 'Mad Max' style landscape where the wildness of mudflats and migrating birds exists in close proximity to power stations, pylons, and abandoned industry. The narrative is driven by an unseen explorer—potentially an alien entity—whose gaze is captured through the camera lens. Viewers are treated to a surreal experience featuring luminous mists, burning sunrises, and knackered fairground rides, creating a world that looks like a post-civilization future.The Cinematic ExperimentBehrens employs several technical gimmicks to immerse the audience in this journey. The screen frequently flashes location coordinates, and scratchy voices from a command centre provide commentary. A key highlight is the discovery of the Maunsell sea forts off the coast of Whitstable, Kent. These rusted steel towers, built during the Second World War, serve as the film's most striking visual anchor, resembling little oil rigs on spindly legs.A Tribute to the UnlovedThis project matters because it taps into a specific British tradition of documenting the overlooked and the marginal. By focusing on the Thames estuary—a place often ignored in favor of central London—Behrens highlights the beauty found in dereliction. The film serves as a modern companion piece to the works of Rachel Lichtenstein, celebrating the resilience of nature amidst the rusted relics of human infrastructure.The Future of Experimental CinemaGiven its release date of 24 April, 'London’s Last Wilderness' is positioned to appeal to niche audiences seeking art-house experiences rather than mainstream blockbusters. The film’s success will likely depend on its ability to sustain the 'spell' it casts without becoming too self-indulgent, potentially paving the way for more documentaries that prioritize atmosphere over traditional narrative structure.

Israel Deploys ‘Yellow Line’ Buffer Zone in Southern Lebanon On 20 April 2026, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) declared the establishment of a clearly marked "yellow line" along the southern Lebanese border. The line is intended to serve as a visual and operational barrier to prevent stray fire and infiltration by militant groups operating near the frontier. Scope and Resources Behind the New Demarcation Length: approximately 12 kilometres of marked boundary stretching from the town of Marjayoun to the outskirts of Tyre. Personnel: 300 Israeli soldiers assigned to monitor and enforce the line, supported by 2 UAV units for aerial surveillance. Equipment: portable radar stations, night‑vision cameras, and rapid‑response teams positioned at five key checkpoints. Timeline: construction began on 15 April 2026 and was completed within five days. Strategic Calculus: Why the ‘Yellow Line’ Matters The move follows a spike in cross‑border incidents during the past month, including three rocket launches from Lebanese territory that landed in northern Israel. By creating a visible, enforceable boundary, Israel aims to: Reduce civilian casualties on both sides. Provide a legal and tactical justification for rapid interdiction. Signal to the Lebanese government and Hezbollah that Israel will take proactive defensive steps. Regional Repercussions and Domestic Fallout Lebanese officials have condemned the unilateral action, calling it a violation of sovereignty. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has expressed concern over potential escalation. Analysts predict: Increased diplomatic friction between Israel and Lebanon, possibly prompting emergency talks at the UN. Heightened security alerts in southern Lebanese towns, with local militias likely to test the line’s robustness. Potential ripple effects on Israel’s broader border strategy with Syria and the Gaza Strip. Looking Ahead: Scenarios for the ‘Yellow Line’ Experts outline three plausible trajectories: Stabilisation: The line deters incursions, leading to a de‑escalation and possible joint monitoring with UNIFIL. Escalation: Militants attempt to breach the line, prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes and a cycle of violence. Diplomatic Resolution: The visible barrier becomes a bargaining chip in broader Israel‑Lebanon negotiations, potentially resulting in a formal demilitarised zone. For now, the "yellow line" stands as a tangible reminder of the fragile security balance in the Middle East, and its evolution will be a key barometer of regional stability in the months ahead.

The Escalating US-Iran Standoff United States President Donald Trump has claimed a second round of negotiations with Iran will take place in Pakistan on Tuesday as mediators try to revive negotiations before the end of an ongoing yet fragile two-week ceasefire. The announcement on Sunday came alongside a sharp escalation in rhetoric. Trump warned that Iran must agree to a deal "one way or another – the nice way or the hard way" and threatened to target key infrastructure if negotiations fail. He also renewed his threat of striking "bridges and power plants", which experts said could amount to war crimes under international law. Iran, however, has so far denied it will participate in the talks, accusing the US of "armed piracy" after US forces struck and seized an Iran-linked tanker on Sunday, further heightening tensions between the longtime adversaries. US Position and Demands On Sunday, Trump announced that US negotiators would travel to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Monday for talks aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. In a social media post, the president did not say which officials would be sent to the talks. Last weekend's first round of talks, at which Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, ended without a deal. Trump accused Iran of violating their two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday, by opening fire on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn't accept the terms of the deal being offered by the US. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. In a further escalation, Trump said an Iranian-flagged ship called the Touska was "stopped" by US forces in the Gulf of Oman "by blowing a hole in the engine room". He said it was trying to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. US forces boarded the ship and took physical control of the vessel. Iran's Response and Position Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed the US attack on the Iranian-flagged tanker and said it would "respond soon". Then, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian forces had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, told Al Jazeera that Iran's actions during talks with the US are strictly guided by national interests and security. When asked if Tehran intends to participate in the talks in Islamabad, he said, "Iran acts based on national interests." "We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this," he said. "If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach." Key Points of Friction Since the start of the war on February 28, a number of new sticking points have emerged – alongside old challenges: Strait of Hormuz Dispute A central dispute is over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. One-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait before the war began. Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman and does not fall into international waters, and stated that only "nonhostile" ships could pass. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. After the war began, Iran in effect closed the strait by forbidding transits, attacking ships and reportedly laying sea mines. Shipping traffic has since dropped by 95 percent. A week ago, the US implemented a blockade of its own. Its Navy has been blocking Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the vital waterway, adding another obstacle to the talks. According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, Trump's stance on the strait has shifted during the conflict and remains unclear. "We've had Trump say that he would be open to jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, where both sides collect a toll for shipping," Geist Pinfold noted, calling this "completely different to the demands of the US on paper but also the demands of the US's regional allies like the Gulf states and Israel, … who would regard any deal that entrenches Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz … as a stab in the back". "This isn't just between the US and Iran. It's about the US having to keep its regional allies on side," Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Nuclear Enrichment Standoff Another core issue is Iran's nuclear programme, particularly its stock of enriched uranium. The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims. Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In 2015, the US was a signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under then-US President Barack Obama. In that agreement, Iran pledged to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent, which is substantially below weapons grade, and to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to insure it wasn't developing nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions on Iran were lifted. However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA despite the IAEA saying Iran had complied with the agreement up to that point. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, testified to Congress that the US "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon". A month later, the IAEA estimated that Iran had 440kg (970lb) of 60-percent enriched uranium. While that is also below weapons grade, it is a short jump to achieve the 90-percent purity needed for atomic weapons production. On Sunday, in strongly worded comments, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Trump had no justification to ⁠⁠"deprive" Iran of its nuclear ⁠⁠rights. Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said Iran's position on enrichment is based on Article IV of the NPT, "which recognises that all state parties [to the treaty] have the inalienable right to research, develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes". "In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty," she told Al Jazeera. "In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law." Lebanon Conflict Complicates Talks Two days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei was killed, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon began firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, and Israel struck back, launching an invasion into southern Lebanon. Iran is adamant that its ceasefire with the US extends to Lebanon and is demanding Israel end its offensive against its ally Hezbollah and its invasion of Lebanon. After initially denying the two-week ceasefire included Lebanon, Israel accepted a 10-day truce starting on Thursday night after direct Israel-Lebanon talks. However, that ceasefire is also teetering on collapse amid renewed hostilities. On Monday, the Israeli military claimed that it struck a loaded launch system in the Kfarkela area of southern Lebanon overnight while Hezbollah claimed responsibility for multiple explosions that it said hit a convoy of eight Israeli armoured vehicles, also in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is Tehran's most powerful ally in the region and a central part of its "axis of resistance", a network of armed groups across the Middle East aligned with Iran against Israel. The network also includes Yemen's Houthis and a collection of armed groups in Iraq. Evolving US Demands Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran had always insisted negotiations be exclusively focused on Iran's nuclear programme. US demands, however, have extended beyond the nuclear file. Before the war, Washington and Israel demanded severe restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile programme. Iran has said its ability to maintain its missile capabilities is non-negotiable. On February 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran's refusal to discuss its missile programme was a "big problem". Yet, since the two-week ceasefire was announced on April 8 and the Pakistan-brokered negotiations began, the US has not made any mention of Iran's ballistic missiles, which have been a major feature in Iran's retaliation against US and Israeli forces. Regime Change and Proxy Support The US and Israel have also made no secret of their desire for a change in Iran's government. Asked two weeks before the war began if he wished for a toppling of the government in Tehran, Trump said: "Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." After the killing of Khamenei and multiple other senior Iranian leaders, Trump claimed the US-Israel war had in effect brought about "regime change", claiming key leadership layers were "decimated". Experts, however, disputed Trump's assertions, saying the government was very much intact, if not stronger. Salar Mohandesi, a professor at Bowdoin College in Maine, argued that despite US claims, what is happening in Iran does not meet any serious definition of "regime change". "The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors," he told Al Jazeera. Mohandesi said the war has arguably strengthened the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), something that is an "acceleration of an existing" trend and does not necessarily amount to regime change, "certainly not in the way Trump means it". "Trump's declaration that he has succeeded in 'regime change' is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists," he added. Proxy Group Support Three days before the war began during his State of the Union address to the US Congress, Trump accused Iran and "its murderous proxies" of spreading "nothing but terrorism and death and hate". The US and Israel have long demanded Iran stop supporting its nonstate allies – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of groups in Iraq. Tehran to date has refused to enter into any dialogue about limiting its support for these armed groups. But on Friday, Trump claimed Iran had agreed to almost all of the US demands, including support for its proxies. A statement by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected that any such agreement was in place, saying: "The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!" Prospects for a Breakthrough On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and speaker of its parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that while "conclusions" had been reached on some issues, "we are far from a final agreement." Analyst Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera that deep divisions between the US and Iran make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the near term despite some openings created by Trump's shifting positions. "The primary complication that would mean a deal is less likely but also one of the potential curveballs that would make a deal more likely is the Trump administration's equivocations regarding what its red lines actually are," he said. "At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable," Geist Pinfold added, noting that "the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal." The US-Iran talks face major structural obstacles despite growing speculation about a negotiated end to the current crisis, according to Bowdoin College's Mohandesi. "Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win," he noted, adding: "It's unclear what that would look like at the negotiating table." On the Iranian side, Mohandesi sees little room for compromise on the core strategic issues. "Iran will absolutely not abandon its missile programme. It will not stop supporting its allies in the region, and it will almost certainly not agree to zero enrichment," he said. The academic questioned whether even a restoration of maritime traffic would constitute meaningful success for Washington. Even if Trump "were to somehow convince Iran to return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo, it's unclear how that would be a major win since the strait was open before he started the war", Mohandesi said.