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Donald Trump's Iran war has ended in a humiliating defeat, with the US president now being held hostage by the very country he sought to dominate. Despite his initial boasts of a "short-term excursion", Trump's military adventure has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives, including regime change and access to oil wealth. The Iranian military has successfully asserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, and has demonstrated its capacity to wreak havoc on the Gulf states. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has forecast a spike in inflation to 4.2% in the US, a 40% increase since Trump returned to office, and the stock market has dived into correction territory. Trump's attempts to justify his blunder and extricate himself from its dire consequences have been met with skepticism. His denial of any wrongdoing is too vehement to be convincing, and his calls for NATO countries to rescue him while insulting them as "cowards" have fallen flat. Iran has leveraged its control of the Strait of Hormuz to secure concessions from Trump, including the lifting of oil sanctions and safe passage for eight oil tankers. The Iranian government has rejected Trump's latest offer of negotiations "until complete victory", and Trump's threats of "obliteration" have been met with defiance. The Trump administration's decision-making process has been marred by ignorance, incompetence, and self-interest. Trump's advisors, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have been accused of lacking expertise and misunderstanding key technical realities, leading to a series of catastrophic mistakes. In the end, Trump's Iran war has been a classic example of a conflict launched willfully through ignorance and sheer stupidity, with devastating consequences for the US economy and global stability.

UK savers who want to maximize their cash Isa allowance are being warned not to leave it until the last minute, as the deadline for applications is on Easter Sunday, April 5. The cash Isa allows individuals to save or invest up to £20,000 per tax year, with returns free of tax. Experts are advising savers to take action now, as the allowance for those under 65 will be reduced to £12,000 from the next tax year. This change, announced in last year's budget, aims to encourage younger savers to consider investing in the stock market. In April 2025, a record £14 billion was paid into cash Isas, and this year is expected to see a similar surge. Anna Bowes, personal savings expert at The Private Office, emphasized that savers need to act quickly, as some providers may withdraw their offerings early to process applications before the deadline. Savers can currently find competitive interest rates, with fixed rates of around 4.45% available from providers like Close Brothers Savings, Furness building society, and Vida Savings. For variable-rate Isas, Plum is offering 4.66%, and Tembo Money is paying 4.55%, both including a bonus for the first 12 months. Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, warned that savers should not delay, as missing the deadline could mean losing the chance to use this year's allowance. She also recommended exploring options beyond traditional high street banks, as challenger banks and building societies are offering some of the best deals.

The price of oil has surged to $116 a barrel after Donald Trump's comments on seizing Iranian oil, sparking concerns over a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose by 2% in early trading on Monday.Trump told the Financial Times that his 'favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran,' which led to a significant increase in oil prices and a drop in Asian stock markets. Japan's Nikkei fell by 3%, while the South Korean Kospi dropped 3.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed about 1%.The conflict in the Middle East has escalated with the arrival of 3,500 US troops and Houthi rebels in Yemen firing ballistic missiles at Israeli sites. This has led to concerns over a potential disruption in oil supplies, causing natural gas prices to increase in Europe.Analysts warn that if the conflict doesn't end quickly, crude could rise to $150 or even $200 per barrel, which could lead to a global recession. The UK's Keir Starmer is set to hold talks with bosses from Shell, BP, and Equinor to discuss emergency measures to contain the crisis.The war in the Middle East has driven Brent crude to its biggest monthly gain ever, up by 59% since the start of March. Industry figures have warned of potential temporary shortages at petrol pumps in the UK due to the conflict.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has caused significant turmoil in the global oil markets, with Brent crude oil prices climbing 51% since the start of March, according to LSEG data. This surge has put Brent crude on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, surpassing the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.On Friday, Brent crude closed at $112.57 a barrel, up from $72.48 a barrel on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The price of Brent crude traded as high as $119.50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil and gas.Despite a coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on March 11, oil prices continued to climb throughout the month. Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply due to the Middle East conflict.The conflict has also had a ripple effect on other assets, with gold prices falling by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008. The spot price of gold has been under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes to fund efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira.The Dow Jones industrial average has also been impacted, entering a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high. Stocks fell despite US President Donald Trump's latest extension on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. Britain's stock market also had a poor month, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.

The US stock market closed on Friday with a significant selloff, sending the Dow into correction territory and marking the fifth consecutive week of declines. The Dow fell 800 points, while the Nasdaq index dropped another 2% and the S&P; 500 closed 1.6% lower.Oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude surging past $110 a barrel. Despite Donald Trump's announcement of extending a pause on Iranian energy strikes, markets remained on edge. Trump has suggested that oil prices and the stock market will stabilize once the conflict ends, but it's unclear if markets will believe him.Consumer sentiment in the US has also declined, with a 6% drop in March, according to a University of Michigan survey. This decline was observed across all age groups, political parties, and income levels. Inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, the largest one-month increase since last April.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its global GDP growth projections downward, citing the Iran conflict as a significant source of uncertainty. The report warned of higher global inflation due to the spike in energy prices and noted that the Middle East conflict would disproportionately affect the UK's economy.

US markets witnessed a significant downturn on Thursday, marking their biggest slump since the onset of the US-Israel war with Iran. The Dow closed 450 points down, while the S&P 500 dipped 1.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.3%, plunging into correction territory, which occurs when an index falls at least 10% below its most recent peak. The conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, reaching levels not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the end of the day on Thursday, Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was about $107 a barrel, while US crude hit $93 a barrel. Average US gas prices at the pump reached $3.98 a gallon, according to AAA. Despite the soaring prices, Donald Trump said that oil prices “have not gone up as much as I thought” during a cabinet meeting on Thursday. He predicted that prices would “come back down to where it was, and probably lower,” and that the impact on the stock market would reverse once the conflict ends. Markets have been growing weary of Trump's mixed signals on the US's stance in negotiations with Iran. Stocks dipped on Thursday morning after Trump posted a warning to Iranian negotiators that they “better get serious, before it’s too late.” However, later in the morning, Trump said that there were “very substantial talks” happening with Iran and that the country allowed 10 oil tankers to pass the blocked strait of Hormuz. The White House announced it will extend a pause on Iranian energy infrastructure strikes by 10 days, until 6 April. A new report estimates US inflation will average 4.2% this year, compared with an average of about 2.6% in 2025, according to the Organization for Economic and Cooperation and Development (OECD). The increase in inflation reverses what was expected to be strong growth for the global economy before the conflict began.

Retailer Next has reported a £1.16bn pre-tax profit for the full year, with the Middle East conflict expected to add only £15m to fuel and air freight costs. This amount, which assumes a three-month disruption, is considered minimal and can be offset by savings elsewhere.Chief Executive Simon Wolfson added £8m to this year's profit forecast as a mechanical read-through from last year's outcome, indicating that trading had been “encouraging” in the UK and “strong” overseas until late February.The main concern for Next is the potential long-term impact of the conflict on supply chain resilience, freight rates, factory gate prices, and consumer demand. Wolfson emphasized that the company has no insight into the duration and implications of the conflict, stating, “As yet, we have no feel for the medium-term effects”.If higher costs persist, Next may put up prices, but this remains “a contingency, not a plan”. The company will provide a clearer view in its first-quarter update in May.Wolfson also offered nuanced insights, suggesting that consumer confidence may not have collapsed as much as some, like the British Retail Consortium, have claimed. He noted that UK consumers tend to react to actual higher prices, not the threat of them.Additionally, Next's spring-summer ranges are already in stores, online, and warehouses, minimizing the immediate need for adjustments. Any increases in fabric costs or production disruptions in Asian factories would mostly affect autumn-winter ranges.The stock market responded positively, with Next's shares rising 5% to £125.40. This resilience could indicate potential for a profit upgrade in May if the £15m in extra costs turns out to be the worst of it.However, no retailer will be immune if the energy price shock persists and the OECD's prediction of UK economic growth of just 0.7% this year materializes.

OpenAI has announced the shutdown of its social media app Sora, which allowed users to share short-form videos generated by artificial intelligence. The decision comes amid growing concerns over the potential for deepfakes and nonconsensual content.The app, launched in September, aimed to capture the attention and advertising dollars of short-form video platforms like TikTok and Instagram. However, advocacy groups, academics, and experts raised alarms about the dangers of AI-generated videos, leading to proliferation of realistic deepfakes and "AI slop".OpenAI was forced to crack down on AI creations of public figures, including Michael Jackson, Martin Luther King Jr, and Mister Rogers, doing outlandish things, after an outcry from family estates and an actors' union.The shutdown affects a $1 billion deal between OpenAI and Disney, which was announced three months ago. The deal included Disney investing $1 billion in OpenAI and lending over 200 of its iconic characters for use in short, AI-generated videos. However, the transaction never closed, and no money changed hands.Disney stated that it respects OpenAI's decision to exit the video generation business and shift priorities elsewhere. The abrupt cancellation of Sora illustrates the messy process of streamlining as OpenAI prepares for a potential stock market debut later this year.

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a war of words over whether negotiations are taking place to end the hostilities. US President Donald Trump asserts that 'productive' talks have occurred with a top Iranian figure, but Iranian officials, including Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, vehemently deny these claims.The conflicting narratives raise questions about the motivations behind each side's statements. An analysis of what each side stands to gain from negotiations and a potential end to the conflict may provide clarity. Trump's comments on negotiations may be aimed at calming stock markets and oil prices, which have fluctuated significantly due to the conflict.The timing of Trump's comments coincides with the end of the trading week and a five-day deadline he gave for a positive response from Iran. This has led some to speculate that the US may be using talk of negotiations as a strategy to buy time for more US troops to arrive in the Middle East, potentially for a ground invasion of Iranian territory.From Iran's perspective, the economic pain inflicted on the US and global economies serves as a deterrent against future attacks. Therefore, it is in Iran's interest to downplay any talk of negotiations to maintain pressure on the US.Trump faces a dilemma between extending the war and suffering economic and political costs or ending it and facing criticism for not completing what he termed a 'short-term excursion.' The Iranian state, on the other hand, appears to have less incentive to end the war without establishing an effective deterrent against future attacks.The conflict has already resulted in over 1,500 deaths in Iran, significant infrastructure damage, and strained relations with Gulf neighbors. Moderate voices in Iran may argue that some form of deterrence has been achieved, and it may be time to talk and secure concessions.