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Lebanon declared a national day of mourning after a wave of Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday resulted in at least 254 fatalities and more than 1,165 injuries. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced the mobilisation of "all of Lebanon’s political and diplomatic resources" to halt what he described as the "Israeli killing machine." In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Lebanon was not included in the cease‑fire agreement negotiated between the United States and Iran. U.S. Vice President JD Vance reinforced this position, stating, "We never made that promise." The stark contrast between the humanitarian toll in Lebanon and the diplomatic statements from Jerusalem and Washington highlights the fragility of the US‑Iran ceasefire. Analysts warn that the exclusion of Lebanon from the agreement could fuel further escalation in an already volatile region, complicating diplomatic efforts aimed at stabilising the broader Middle‑East landscape.

Vice President JD Vance warned Iran that jeopardising the US‑Iran ceasefire over Lebanon would be "dumb", emphasizing that the United States expects the truce to remain intact despite Tehran’s frustrations. Pakistan, which brokered the two‑week ceasefire, publicly stated that Lebanon is part of the agreement. Vance, speaking to reporters in Hungary, countered that the United States does not consider Israel’s ongoing strikes on Lebanon as covered by the ceasefire. "If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart – in a conflict where they were getting hammered – over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice," Vance said, adding, "We think that would be dumb, but that’s their choice." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed Pakistan’s position, highlighting Lebanon in his repost of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s statement and asserting that the ceasefire terms are clear: the US must choose either a ceasefire or continued war via Israel. President Donald Trump and the White House, however, maintain that Lebanon was not part of the deal. Vance dismissed the contradictory messages as a "misunderstanding" and "bad faith propaganda," suggesting the Iranians mistakenly believed Lebanon was included. The lack of a clear explanation from US officials leaves observers questioning how such a misunderstanding could arise amid high‑stakes diplomacy. Israel’s track record of breaching ceasefires dates back to the November 2024 truce with Lebanon. On Wednesday, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon killed at least 254 people and injured more than 1,100, marking one of the deadliest assaults in the 15‑month conflict. Vance indicated that Israel has signaled a willingness to temper its operations in Lebanon, stating the Israelis have "committed to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon" to ensure the US‑Iran negotiations stay on track. The broader conflict intensified in early March after Hezbollah launched rockets in retaliation for Israeli attacks and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah now faces internal pressure from rival factions accusing it of dragging Lebanon into war on Iran’s behalf. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a stark warning: if Israeli aggression against Lebanon does not cease immediately, the IRGC will deliver a "regretful response" to what it called "evil aggressors" in the region.

Israel's devastating bombardment of Lebanon in the hours after a US-Iranian ceasefire was announced has been widely condemned amid global efforts to salvage the truce. The bombing, which killed more than 200 people, including strikes with heavy munitions on densely populated areas, drew outrage from the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international humanitarian organisations.Benjamin Netanyahu insisted Lebanon was not included in the Tuesday night ceasefire agreed by Donald Trump, and vowed the Israeli military would continue to strike Hezbollah targets “wherever necessary”. The Israeli prime minister said his forces had killed the secretary to Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem.The US vice-president, JD Vance, backed Netanyahu, claiming the US had never agreed to the inclusion of Lebanon in the truce. However, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that further Israeli strikes on Lebanon would render negotiations “meaningless”. Iran would not abandon the Lebanese people, he said.Pakistan, which led the efforts to broker a ceasefire after Trump threatened a civilisation-ending onslaught, has said Lebanon had been part of the agreement. Robert Malley, a former American envoy who led earlier US-Iranian negotiations, said: “I would trust the Pakistani mediator that Lebanon was included.The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said on Thursday: “Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into the war, but Israel’s right to defend itself does not justify inflicting such massive destruction.” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, condemned the Israeli strikes as “unacceptable” and his British counterpart, Yvette Cooper, described them as “deeply damaging”, adding that failure to include Lebanon in the ceasefire would “destabilise the whole region”.

Oil and gas markets rallied on Thursday as investors grappled with the shaky outlook for the two‑week Iran‑Israel ceasefire. Brent crude rose more than 2% to $96.77 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed nearly 3% to $97.23, still shy of the $100 threshold that many traders watch. The previous session had seen Brent plunge 13.29% to a four‑week low of $94.75. In the gas sector, the UK month‑ahead contract rebounded 1% to 115.35p per therm after a 15% drop the day before. European natural‑gas futures also recovered, edging toward €46/MWh from a five‑week trough of €45.30. The price uptick reflects growing scepticism about the durability of the ceasefire announced a day earlier by the United States and Iran, which included a pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. UAE and Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian drones, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the United States and Israel of breaching several agreement points. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “regret‑inducing response” if Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue. The latest Israeli barrage killed at least 254 people and wounded 837, prompting the Fars news agency to note that oil‑tanker traffic through the strait had been halted. Former President Donald Trump used his Truth Social platform to threaten that U.S. forces would remain in the region until a “real agreement” is fully honoured, warning that any non‑compliance would trigger “stronger than anyone has ever seen before” military action. Asian equity markets reacted negatively: Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.4%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 dipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.2%. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 trimmed 0.1% after a near‑4% rally the day before, while U.S. futures pointed to a lower opening on Wall Street. Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid noted that market stress has eased compared with 24 hours earlier, as the ceasefire news generated renewed optimism and reduced fears of a stagflationary shock. On the diplomatic front, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Vice‑President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, with initial talks slated for Saturday morning. Jefferies chief European economist Mohit Kumar argued that, despite its fragility, the truce is likely to hold because of the “mutually assured destruction” calculus. He added that both sides now see a ceasefire as the lesser‑evil, given the escalating costs of continued conflict and the strategic challenges of securing cheap drone interceptors and a reliable Hormuz passage.

Pakistan's diplomatic efforts culminated in a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed upon just hours before US President Donald Trump's deadline to destroy Iran's 'civilisation'. The ceasefire was announced by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social, and confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.The breakthrough was facilitated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, who engaged in extensive diplomacy with both sides. Sharif publicly announced the ceasefire, inviting both delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations. The talks are expected to begin on Friday, potentially involving a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance.The conflict, which began on February 28, had killed over 2,000 people in Iran and disrupted roughly a fifth of the world's oil supplies. Pakistan's role as a mediator was seen as a significant diplomatic achievement, with both Washington and Tehran acknowledging its efforts.The ceasefire is not a peace deal, and key differences remain unresolved, including Iran's uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts view Pakistan's role as a major shift in its diplomatic efforts, positioning itself at the centre of a significant diplomatic initiative.

The fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel faced a serious crisis on Wednesday as both sides presented conflicting accounts of the agreement. The development raised concerns about the potential collapse of the truce.Israel escalated its military operations in Lebanon, launching its heaviest attack yet on over 100 targets, resulting in at least 254 fatalities. This move directly contradicts the claims of Iran and Pakistan, who brokered the 11th-hour truce and asserted that the ceasefire included Lebanon.In response, Iran halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, citing an alleged Israeli breach of the ceasefire. The Fars news agency reported that oil prices had dropped sharply below $100 a barrel following the truce announcement, leading to a global stock market surge.The White House disputed Iran's claims about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the reports 'false' and stating that US President Donald Trump expected it to reopen 'immediately, quickly and safely.' The US signaled its continued adherence to the ceasefire, even as it threatened to unravel.Iran and the US have different interpretations of the agreement. Trump conveyed a version suggesting a 15-point proposal from the US, which included no enrichment of uranium and the destruction of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. In contrast, Iran's 10-point plan, which Trump initially referred to as a 'workable basis for negotiation,' included the right to enrich uranium and the full lifting of sanctions.The US and Iran are set to engage in talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend, with a US negotiating team led by Vice-President JD Vance. The talks aim to cement the ceasefire into a more durable peace agreement, but significant gaps remain to be bridged.The situation in the Gulf remains fragile, with the US and Israel claiming to have destroyed Iran's industrial base and significant military assets. Iran, on the other hand, portrays the truce as a victory, with senior politician Ali Akbar Velayati stating that 'America was forced to accept a ceasefire.'

U.S. Senator JD Vance released a video appeal urging Iran to demonstrate good faith amid a fragile ceasefire. Vance emphasized that the ceasefire's stability hinges on responsible actions from all parties, warning that any deviation could jeopardize the tenuous peace. The senator’s message underscores the broader diplomatic challenges facing the region and highlights the importance of sustained commitment to de‑escalation.

The White House has firmly denied that it has any plans to use nuclear weapons against Iran, amid escalating tensions and a looming deadline imposed by President Donald Trump. Trump has warned that if Iran does not capitulate to his demands, a 'whole civilisation will die tonight'.The denial from Washington came as Trump employed apocalyptic language, insisting that Iran must make a deal or face a massive onslaught. The original ultimatum was made by Trump on Saturday, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global energy exports pass, or face an assault on key infrastructure.The deadline falls at 8pm Eastern time (00:00 GMT), and legal experts warn that targeting civilian infrastructure could amount to a war crime. Texas Democratic Congressman Joaquin Castro called on Trump to immediately clarify that he is not considering using nuclear weapons.Vice President JD Vance later stated that US forces could employ tools they 'so far haven't decided to use', sparking concerns. The Iranian response has been defiant, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) vowing to respond in kind if the US attacks civilian facilities.Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan to end the war, which Trump called a 'significant step' but 'not good enough'. The situation remains volatile, with Israel-US strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks across the region and Israel intensifying.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has taken a critical turn with the involvement of US Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan-led mediation efforts. Vance has been working closely with Pakistani officials to facilitate a ceasefire and prevent further escalation. The mediation efforts, which began in late March, have gained significant momentum in recent days.According to sources close to the talks, Vance has been in direct communication with Iranian officials, including Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Pakistani government has been playing a crucial role in facilitating the talks, with Field Marshal Asim Munir, the country's army chief, having spoken with Vance and Araghchi.The mediation efforts have produced tangible movement, with Iran confirming receipt of a ceasefire proposal. However, Tehran eventually rejected the plan, calling it 'illogical'. Despite this setback, the talks are ongoing, with Pakistani officials describing the negotiations as being at an advanced stage.Iran's preference for Vance is rooted in his record on foreign intervention. As a senator, Vance argued that Trump's success in office rested partly on avoiding new wars. He also warned that a conflict with Iran would not serve US interests and would be a 'huge distraction of resources'. This stance has been seen as more sympathetic to ending the conflict than other US officials.The mediation efforts have significant implications for the region, with a potential ceasefire having the potential to prevent further escalation and destabilization. The involvement of Vance and other officials has also raised questions about the political calculus of the US administration and its approach to the conflict.