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The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has entered its 31st day, with overnight strikes hitting Tehran and other cities, targeting power infrastructure in the Iranian capital and causing a blackout that has since been restored. US President Donald Trump has stated that he wants to "take the oil in Iran", while Tehran has accused Washington of plotting a ground attack despite publicly pushing for a negotiated deal. Trump also mentioned that he is "pretty sure" a deal with Iran will be made. In a diplomatic effort, Pakistan is set to host meaningful talks in the coming days, with the Pakistani Foreign Minister stating that regional foreign ministers discussed ways to bring an early end to the war. The conflict has spread to other regions, with Saudi Arabia intercepting five ballistic missiles heading towards its Eastern province, and Kuwait reporting an attack on a service building and electric power plant, resulting in the death of an Indian worker. The economic impact of the conflict is significant, with Brent crude prices rising 2.98% to $115.93 a barrel, and Asian markets experiencing a decline, including Indonesia's main stock index and Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100.

Oil prices have reached their highest level in nearly two weeks, with Brent crude rising over 3% to $116 a barrel on Monday morning. The surge comes amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, with Iran accusing the US of preparing for a ground invasion.The conflict has disrupted about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, plunging the world into its biggest energy crisis in decades. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a nearly 60% rise in oil prices since the start of the war.Analysts warn that oil prices are likely to keep rising unless maritime traffic returns to normal levels in the strait. US President Donald Trump has threatened to 'obliterate' Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran does not relinquish its stranglehold on the waterway by a deadline of April 6.Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, said energy consumers are only beginning to feel the true fallout of the turmoil, with Brent expected to rise towards $120 and beyond. The scale of the disruption has yet to be fully appreciated, with physical premiums at their highest ever.

China's economy is heavily reliant on oil refining, particularly in Shandong province, where independent 'teapot' refineries play a crucial role. These small refineries, often operating on thin margins, have been vital in keeping China's economy stable amidst the global energy crisis. The crisis began with US-Israel strikes on Iran, causing chaos in the Middle East and prompting Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas flows. However, Iranian oil has continued to flow to China, with imports reaching about 1.6 million barrels per day. China's teapot refineries are now facing significant challenges due to rising crude prices. Iranian light crude, which was previously $11 cheaper than Brent crude, now has a discount as low as $2 per barrel. This has reduced the refineries' profits, with some workers fearing salary cuts. The impact is being felt across the industry, with Luqing Petrochemical, one of Shandong's prominent teapots, allegedly sanctioned by the US for buying Iranian oil. The company has started pressuring employees to quit by cutting salaries and relocating them to difficult work sites. The economic shock is also affecting ordinary people in China, with the government intervening in the retail fuel market to reduce a planned increase in petrol and diesel prices. However, if prices continue to rise, some teapot refineries may go bust. The long-term threat to the industry is not just the war but also the rise of electric vehicles, according to Uncle Wang, a petrol station owner in Weifang. As China transitions to cleaner energy sources, the demand for oil is expected to decline, posing a significant challenge to the teapot refineries and the thousands of people they employ.

Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Iran, threatening to "obliterate" its power stations and fresh water plants if a peace deal is not reached soon. This comes as the US and Israel's joint war against Iran enters its second month, with Tehran remaining defiant in the face of US peace proposals.The conflict has already had significant repercussions, including a record monthly rise in oil prices and concerns over a potential US ground operation to seize Kharg Island. Trump's threat to destroy civilian infrastructure, such as power and water facilities, has been condemned by human rights groups as a potential war crime.The White House has also suggested that Arab countries may be asked to help foot the bill for the war, adding a new dimension to the conflict. "It's an idea that I know that he has," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.International pressure is mounting, with Spain closing its airspace to US planes involved in the conflict and the UK's prime minister reiterating that "this is not our war and we are not going to get dragged into it". Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has called on Trump to end the war, warning that "no one will be able to stop the war in our region".The conflict threatens to plunge the global economy into recession and trigger shortages of food and pharmaceuticals. The International Monetary Fund has warned that "all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth worldwide" if the conflict continues.

The recent meeting of foreign ministers from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in Islamabad signals the emergence of a new four-nation bloc in the Middle East. This bloc aims to promote a ceasefire in the region and curb the dominance of Iran and Israel.The group's primary goal is to persuade all sides to stop the escalation and agree to a ceasefire. According to Yasmine Farouk, a Gulf specialist at the International Crisis Group, the group will meet more frequently to achieve this goal.The meeting in Islamabad made some progress, including an Iranian agreement to allow vessels operating under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The group will also act as a primary interlocutor with Iran, keeping indirect negotiating channels open between Tehran and the US.Turkey is seen as the most committed member of the group, with Hakan Fidan, Turkey's foreign minister, and İbrahim Kalın, the director of Turkish intelligence, urging Gulf states to consider the wider context of the war and the risks of encouraging an outcome in which Israel emerges stronger.The bloc's emergence is significant, as it brings together countries with different interests and perspectives on the conflict in the Middle East. The group's success will depend on its ability to navigate these complex relationships and promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The US-Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, has escalated into a war of attrition with no clear strategy or end in sight. The US continues to hit Iranian targets while building up forces in the region, while Iran launches missile and drone attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf states.The conflict has significant economic implications, with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing oil prices to surge and disrupting global supply chains. The pain is likely to get worse, with shortages already felt across the world, from Asian factories to European diesel markets.The war should never have been started, with the threat not imminent, objectives unclear, and justification falling apart under scrutiny. Responsibility rests with Donald Trump and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu. The delusion that force can impose a more compliant regime in Tehran has predictably given rise to a conflict that sustains itself.The only plausible exit is negotiation without preconditions. However, Mr. Trump mixes threats of escalation and claims that negotiations are progressing, with little evidence of a meaningful diplomatic track. The conflict cannot be separated from Gaza, where Mr. Netanyahu is gambling that war with Iran will restore his standing.If US ground forces are committed, the dynamic shifts, and American casualties will harden resolve among those who backed the intervention, making withdrawal politically harder. World powers can shift the incentives away from a US ground war by working together to insulate themselves from economic pain and coordinate diplomatic messaging.

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed group in Yemen, have recently launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This move has analysts warning of a potential new front in the war, particularly with the group's ability to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a crucial passage for global commodities trade.The strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a key route for 10% of global trade, including a significant share of oil and gas shipments. Blocking this strait could have severe implications for the global economy, potentially disrupting trade and leading to increased inflation.Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, announced the group's first attack on Israel, followed by a second military operation using cruise missiles and drones. The Houthis have warned they will continue military operations until Israel ceases its aggression.The group's actions are seen as a significant development in the conflict, with Iran likely to welcome the Houthis' involvement. However, the extent of their participation remains uncertain, with some analysts describing their actions as token participation rather than full engagement.If the Houthis were to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, it would create a nightmare scenario for global trade, particularly for Europe. This move, combined with potential restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, could cripple trade and have far-reaching economic consequences.Analysts suggest that the Houthis' current posture reflects a deliberate calculation rather than restraint born of weakness. Their decision to target Israel directly, rather than escalating in the Red Sea, indicates a strategic approach aligned with Tehran's broader strategy.For now, the Houthis' threat to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait remains a significant concern, with global trade and economies potentially hanging in the balance.

Pakistan has become a key player in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between the US and Iran, hosting a meeting of foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan in Islamabad. The two-day consultations aim to align regional positions and prepare the ground for possible direct US-Iran engagement, with Pakistan acting as the central interlocutor between the two nations. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a 90-minute phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, focusing on de-escalation and trust-building measures. Pezeshkian stressed that confidence-building measures are required before Tehran can consider direct dialogue. The Islamabad meeting is not a negotiation, but rather preparation for potential talks. Its goals are to consolidate regional backing for de-escalation and harmonize positions on ceasefire sequencing. Iran has transmitted its response to the US proposal via Islamabad, with demands including an end to hostilities, reparations for damages, guarantees against future attacks, and recognition of its strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. The next 48 to 72 hours will determine whether this diplomatic push produces a meeting between US and Iranian officials. If successful, it could provide the political cover both Washington and Tehran need to enter talks without appearing to concede.

Top diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey have gathered in Islamabad for two-day talks with their Pakistani counterpart on the escalating conflict between the US and Israel against Iran. The goal is to seek a de-escalation of the situation.The talks, led by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, follow Iran's agreement to allow 20 more ships under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with two ships permitted daily. This development was announced by Dar on Saturday.Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had a detailed telephone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Saturday, lasting over an hour, as part of preparations for the Islamabad talks. Sharif emphasized Pakistan's commitment to bringing an end to the conflict.Al Jazeera's Kamal Kyder, reporting from Islamabad, noted that Pakistan has been acting as a key interlocutor between the US and Iran, facilitating communication between the two sides as part of mediation efforts. He described the gathering in Islamabad as the beginning of a critical process that hinges on diplomacy and dialogue.The talks in Islamabad are seen as a crucial step towards finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Iran's President Pezeshkian has thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts to stop the aggression against Iran. With Islamabad's longstanding links with Tehran and close contacts in the Gulf, Pakistan is well-positioned to play a key role in these diplomatic efforts.Meanwhile, the risk of an expanded Iran war increased on Saturday as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict. The developments underscore the complexity and volatility of the situation in the Middle East.