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The recent meeting of foreign ministers from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in Islamabad signals the emergence of a new four-nation bloc in the Middle East. This bloc aims to promote a ceasefire in the region and curb the dominance of Iran and Israel.The group's primary goal is to persuade all sides to stop the escalation and agree to a ceasefire. According to Yasmine Farouk, a Gulf specialist at the International Crisis Group, the group will meet more frequently to achieve this goal.The meeting in Islamabad made some progress, including an Iranian agreement to allow vessels operating under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The group will also act as a primary interlocutor with Iran, keeping indirect negotiating channels open between Tehran and the US.Turkey is seen as the most committed member of the group, with Hakan Fidan, Turkey's foreign minister, and İbrahim Kalın, the director of Turkish intelligence, urging Gulf states to consider the wider context of the war and the risks of encouraging an outcome in which Israel emerges stronger.The bloc's emergence is significant, as it brings together countries with different interests and perspectives on the conflict in the Middle East. The group's success will depend on its ability to navigate these complex relationships and promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The Houthis are a militant group that emerged from a years-long civil war in Yemen as the country’s most powerful political force. Their strategic location at the entrance of the Red Sea allows them to disrupt international trade.The group, which has an estimated 20,000 fighters, represents the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam. The Houthis first began gaining mass support around the turn of the century from Shia Yemenis who were fed up with corruption and authoritarian leaders.In 2014, the Houthis captured the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, and a year later overthrew the western-backed president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Hadi was forced to flee, but his allies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign, also backed by the west, to drive out the Houthis.The ensuing civil war led to an estimated 377,000 deaths and displaced 4 million people by the end of 2021. The UN brokered a 2022 truce between the warring sides in Yemen that has largely held.As part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, the Houthis began targeting international shipping in the Red Sea after the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which triggered the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. The Houthis’ campaign in the Red Sea – a major thoroughfare for world trade – brought chaos to global supply chains.The Houthis ceased their attacks after a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025.While the US says Iran has armed, funded, and trained the Houthis, the group denies being an Iranian proxy but says they share a political affinity. On 28 March, the Houthis fired missiles at Israel, vowing to continue military operations until Israel “ceases its attacks and aggression”.

A premature ceasefire agreement could potentially set the stage for future conflict escalation, experts warn. The rushed nature of such agreements often overlooks underlying issues, leading to unsustainable peace and increasing the likelihood of renewed violence.The concern is that without addressing the root causes of the conflict, a ceasefire might merely delay the inevitable, rather than providing a lasting resolution. This could result in another round of conflict in the future, potentially with greater intensity.

Pakistan has become a key player in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between the US and Iran, hosting a meeting of foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan in Islamabad. The two-day consultations aim to align regional positions and prepare the ground for possible direct US-Iran engagement, with Pakistan acting as the central interlocutor between the two nations. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a 90-minute phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, focusing on de-escalation and trust-building measures. Pezeshkian stressed that confidence-building measures are required before Tehran can consider direct dialogue. The Islamabad meeting is not a negotiation, but rather preparation for potential talks. Its goals are to consolidate regional backing for de-escalation and harmonize positions on ceasefire sequencing. Iran has transmitted its response to the US proposal via Islamabad, with demands including an end to hostilities, reparations for damages, guarantees against future attacks, and recognition of its strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. The next 48 to 72 hours will determine whether this diplomatic push produces a meeting between US and Iranian officials. If successful, it could provide the political cover both Washington and Tehran need to enter talks without appearing to concede.

The Houthis, a Shia sect backed by Iran, have entered the conflict with missile attacks on Israeli military sites. The true significance of their involvement depends on whether they intend to launch sporadic attacks or effectively close off the Red Sea to shipping. Disruption of the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Strait of Hormuz could have a devastating impact on global trade and economy. The Houthis' ability to interdict ships poses a significant threat, and their actions could drive up shipping costs and oil prices. The Houthis have a complex relationship with Iran, receiving arms from Tehran but not directly fighting on its behalf. A ceasefire with the US, mediated by Oman, has been in place since May 2025, but it does not apply to Israel. Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen's future is crucial, as it seeks to reach deals with the Houthis and former Southern Transitional Council (STC) supporters. The Houthis may act cautiously, seeking financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. The conflict could drag Yemen further into regional war, making peace more difficult and prolonging civilian suffering. The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has warned of the escalation's risks, stating it will deepen economic repercussions and prolong the suffering of civilians.

Russian forces have launched deadly strikes on two Ukrainian cities, killing at least four people and wounding over a dozen others. The attacks, which hit Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, damaged residential areas, a maternity hospital, and an industrial site.In Odesa, one person died in hospital from injuries sustained in the strikes, according to Serhiy Lysak, head of the city's military administration. He reported that 11 people were wounded, including a child, and that the strikes caused damage to a maternity hospital roof, high-rise buildings, and homes in several districts.In Kryvyi Rih, two men were killed and two wounded in a morning strike that hit an industrial site, said Oleksandr Ganzha, head of the Dnipro regional administration. He reported that fires erupted at the facility.The latest deadly strikes come as diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis and reach a ceasefire deal remain entangled, dimming hopes of a quick resolution. There are currently no talks underway between Russia and Ukraine.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of lying about US demands, and voiced openness to diverting weapons to Kyiv to support the joint US-Israel attack on Iran. Zelenskyy had claimed that the US is pressing Ukraine to give up the eastern Donbas region to Russia before finalizing any post-war security guarantees to Kyiv.Rubio denied these claims, stating that security guarantees are not going to kick in until there's an end to the war, and that there was no condition attached to giving up territory.

Islamabad has re‑emerged as a pivotal conduit between Washington and Tehran, delivering a U.S. 15‑point cease‑fire proposal on March 25, 2026, as the US‑Israeli campaign against Iran enters its second month. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed that Pakistan is transmitting the proposal, with Turkey and Egypt offering additional diplomatic backing. Chief US negotiator Steve Witkoff later verified Pakistan’s role as a messenger, and President Donald Trump announced a 10‑day pause on planned strikes against Iranian power plants, citing a request from Tehran. Iran has denied direct talks, yet the pause marks the second deferment of Trump’s original threat, underscoring Pakistan’s function as a key diplomatic facilitator in a high‑stakes conflict. The pattern is not new. In August 1969, President Nixon tasked Pakistan’s military ruler Yahya Khan with opening a channel to Beijing. Two years later, a secret flight carried U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger from Islamabad to China, paving the way for Nixon’s historic 1972 visit and the eventual U.S. recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Analysts note that Pakistan’s unique position—maintaining working ties with both Washington and Beijing—made it the only trusted intermediary capable of handling such a sensitive mission, a view echoed by former ambassador Masood Khan. Beyond the Cold‑War episode, Pakistan has repeatedly leveraged its geography and Muslim‑world connections. It served as the primary conduit for U.S., Saudi and Chinese support to the Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s, helped broker the 1988 Geneva Accords that ended the Soviet occupation, and hosted the 2015 Murree talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. During the 2020 Doha Agreement, Pakistani pressure on the Taliban was cited by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad as instrumental, though the rapid U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Taliban takeover left Pakistan’s long‑term interests ambiguous. Efforts to mediate Saudi‑Iran tensions have been less fruitful. In 2016, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s shuttle diplomacy failed to produce a formal agreement, and a 2019 outreach by Prime Minister Imran Khan, prompted by President Trump, yielded no concrete outcome. When China facilitated the 2023 Saudi‑Iran rapprochement, Pakistan’s foreign office claimed it had laid the groundwork, but analysts still view the result as a Chinese‑led success. Pakistan’s brief 2005 overture to Israel, led by Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, similarly collapsed under domestic opposition, illustrating the limits of its diplomatic reach when internal politics intervene. Since the launch of Operation Epic Fury—the US‑Israeli air campaign that began in late February 2026 and resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Pakistan’s leadership has intensified back‑channel activity. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has held multiple calls with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, while Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir spoke directly with President Trump. Both officials have also visited Saudi Arabia, where Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. Former ambassador Naghmana Hashmi observes that Pakistan’s diplomatic narrative is often eclipsed by conflict, yet a “quieter, more consistent thread” persists: the state’s effort to turn its strategic location and Muslim‑world ties into a lever for peace. Whether the current cease‑fire talks will yield a durable settlement remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Pakistan enjoys a rare blend of trust from Washington, Tehran and Gulf capitals—a leverage few regional actors possess.

Fears of economic strain are mounting across Europe as the United States-Israel conflict with Iran approaches its one-month anniversary. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has described the situation as an economic 'catastrophe' for global economies, with impacts already becoming evident.Speaking during a meeting with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Pistorius emphasized Germany's willingness to contribute to peace efforts. He stated that Germany is 'ready to secure any peace' and would discuss operations to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz if a ceasefire were implemented.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has further exacerbated concerns by revising global growth projections. The international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to just 0.7 percent, while downgrading the eurozone by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, the US received a 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its growth forecast.Addressing reporters in Canberra, Pistorius criticized the lack of consultation with Germany before the commencement of hostilities. 'Nobody asked us before. It's not our war, and therefore we don't want to get sucked into that war,' he stated, adding that there is no clear strategy, objective, or exit plan from the conflict.The economic repercussions are particularly severe in energy markets. Natural gas prices in the European Union have surged by more than 30 percent since the conflict began, with prices spiking following Israel's attack on Iran's critical South Pars gasfield and subsequent Iranian retaliation against Qatar's Ras Laffan facility.European leaders are increasingly vocal about the economic dangers. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen has called for negotiations with Iran and an end to hostilities, while urging member states to accelerate preparations for meeting winter gas storage targets. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has described the situation as 'far worse' than the 2003 Iraq invasion, warning of broader and deeper potential impacts.The economic consequences extend beyond Europe, with the OECD noting that the global economy, previously on a path toward growth, has now veered from that trajectory. Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices are expected to keep growth subdued in the United Kingdom, though somewhat mitigated by lower policy rates anticipated for the following year.

Following Donald Trump's recent claims that the US is engaged in 'strong talks' to end the war with Iran, Qatar took the unusual step of publicly distancing itself from any alleged diplomatic negotiations. The Gulf state's government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari explicitly stated, 'Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts,' adding pointedly, 'If they exist.'This represents a significant departure from Qatar's traditional role as a chief mediator in Middle East conflicts, having previously facilitated negotiations between Israel and Hamas, the US and the Taliban, and peace deals in Lebanon and Sudan.Over the past three weeks, Gulf states have found themselves on the frontlines of the conflict after their mediation efforts to prevent war were ultimately rejected by the US. The pattern of broken negotiations is particularly telling: the US attacked Iran twice during talks aimed at halting the Iranian nuclear program, which were championed by Oman. Discussions last June were halted as the US and Israel conducted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and revived talks in February were similarly undermined when Trump began bombing Tehran before the final round of meetings.Since the war began, Gulf states have been forced to spend billions defending against daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, with their economies and sovereignty suffering substantial damage. Analysts suggest their reluctance to engage with the alleged ceasefire efforts reflects both the heavy toll of continued warfare and lingering suspicion about whether Trump's peace initiatives are genuine or merely a pretext for further escalation.As Bilal Saab, senior managing director of advisory group Trends US and former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, explained: 'They've been burned by their previous experience. They previously thought they played a useful mediating role – until they realised that it was all for naught. Not to mention that they have been directly implicated in the war and are still being attacked by the Iranians. So there's a lot of pent-up frustration and disappointment.'By Wednesday night, the Iranian regime had outright rejected Trump's 15-point plan to end the war, submitted to Tehran via Pakistani generals, as 'extremely unreasonable' and presented their own substantially different proposal.The concern among Gulf states is that any negotiations could become a front for military escalation or even the assassination of additional Iranian leaders. This anxiety is compounded by the simultaneous deployment of thousands of US troops to the region and the persistent fear of being used as pawns in the US and Israel's Middle East strategy.Professor Bader al-Saif of Kuwait University noted: 'Whenever the word negotiation was used by the Trump administration, we unfortunately ended up under the rubric of war.' He emphasized that while Gulf states are reluctant to engage with what they perceive as a potential Trumpian charade, they recognize the critical importance of shaping any realistic peace negotiations that could affect their future.The existential threat to Gulf economic ambitions is particularly concerning. The prospect of Trump ending the war with the current Iranian regime still in place—potentially more vengeful than before and acutely aware of the damage its missiles can inflict on multi-billion-dollar infrastructure—poses significant risks. Additionally, there remains no clear solution to Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the region's oil and gas exports flow.Analysts suggest that beyond relying on US-led negotiations, Gulf states should pursue their own separate dialogue with Iran. As al-Saif stated: 'They shouldn't only count on the US to do the negotiation. They should go and strike a deal with Iran for themselves. This was not our war, and if we can shield ourselves from being impacted any further, we should do it to protect our own national interests.'