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Closing the Strait of Hormuz has choked a vital artery that carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s crude oil and LNG, sending energy prices soaring and unsettling global trade. Even if the waterway reopens tomorrow, analysts say the ripple effects will endure for months. Nils Haupt, senior director of corporate communications at German carrier Hapag‑Lloyd, told Al Jazeera that the end of hostilities does not equate to the end of logistics challenges. “Once the bombardments stop, the real work begins,” he said, noting that hundreds of vessels will scramble for berths in Persian Gulf ports, creating a prolonged bottleneck for containers and bulk cargo. According to the International Maritime Organization, about 2,000 ships are currently stranded because of Iran’s partial blockade, with only a handful of vessels from “friendly” nations granted passage. Maritime‑intelligence firm Windward estimates that roughly 400 of those ships are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, waiting for a green light. Diverted traffic has already forced many carriers to reroute via the Suez Canal or take the far longer Cape of Good Hope passage, inflating transit times and costs for shipments bound for Asia and Europe. Oil exports from Saudi Arabia are now being sent around the Red Sea, bypassing the strait entirely. Svein Ringbakken, managing director of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Association, cautioned that even with ports operating at full capacity, clearing the backlog of oil, gas and other goods will take months. He added that repeated attacks on regional energy and transport infrastructure have compounded the problem. The International Energy Agency reports that more than 40 energy assets across the Middle East have suffered “severe or very severe” damage, prompting companies such as QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum Company and Bahrain’s Bapco Energies to declare force majeure. Beyond the immediate loss of flow, the shutdown has disrupted exports of petrochemicals, fertilisers and raw materials essential for plastics production, further straining global supply chains. Industry leaders warn that the risk landscape has fundamentally shifted. SV Anchan, chairman of US‑based logistics group Safesea, highlighted the rise of asymmetric threats, including unmanned vessel attacks, which have already accounted for at least 18 confirmed assaults since the conflict began. “A full reopening will only bring normalcy after a sustained period of stability and credible security guarantees,” Anchan said. Insurance costs have exploded as a result. Marco Forgione of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade noted that hull and cargo premiums have surged up to 300 %, a pressure point that could force shipping firms to curtail operations if rates remain high. Oscar Seikaly, CEO of NSI Insurance Group, stressed that war‑risk coverage will only normalize when a “truly permanent” security solution is in place, not a partial one. Recent data from Lloyd’s List show that a few vessels have managed to obtain Tehran’s permission to transit, with one ship reportedly paying $2 million for the right to pass. Iranian lawmakers have also moved to formalise transit fees for the strait. Nick Marro, lead global‑trade analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that the security guarantees demanded by shippers may be hard to meet, citing the volatile Red Sea experience where commercial traffic remains below pre‑2023 levels. Marro predicts that the Hormuz shutdown will accelerate a broader trend of route diversification, similar to the supply‑chain shifts triggered by the COVID‑19 pandemic. “Geopolitical uncertainty will become a permanent feature of risk management, not a temporary reaction,” he said. Seikaly echoed this outlook, suggesting that exporters will increasingly explore alternative corridors for strategic and political reasons, ultimately reducing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the long term.

Israel has unleashed a significant military operation against Iran, launching two waves of attacks on Tehran and killing a senior Hezbollah commander. The attacks have escalated tensions in the region, with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, denying claims of a ceasefire request.US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran's leadership is seeking a ceasefire, but Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson has denied this, calling Trump's account 'false and baseless'.The conflict has resulted in at least 1,900 people killed and 20,000 injured in Iran, according to estimates from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies. The Israeli military has also reported that 10 of its soldiers have been killed since fighting broke out on the Lebanese front.The attacks have had significant economic implications, with the strait of Hormuz effectively closed to oil and gas tankers and other merchant shipping since the beginning of the conflict, hiking oil prices and causing critical shortages around the world.Iran's president has written to Americans, asking which of their interests are being served by this war, and stating that Iranians 'harbor no enmity towards other nations, including the people of America'. The conflict continues to escalate, with further waves of attacks reported across the densely populated centre of Israel.

Amid the escalating United States‑Israel confrontation with Iran, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as an unexpected voice on financial strategy, posting a series of warnings on X that market‑moving headlines are often engineered to trigger profit‑taking. Ghalibaf’s core advice is simple yet provocative: if a headline inflates prices, bet against it; if it drags prices down, go long. He describes pre‑market news bursts as a “reverse indicator” designed to manipulate investors. His posts are laced with sarcasm, referencing alleged manipulation of oil futures and even joking about turning rhetoric into “actual fuel at the pump.” Behind the humor, analysts say, lies a calculated effort to exploit the overlap between digital propaganda and real‑world conflict. The backdrop to Ghalibaf’s messaging is Iran’s use of asymmetric warfare, notably the brief shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments pass. The closure sent crude prices soaring and heightened economic pressure worldwide, underscoring Tehran’s ability to influence U.S. markets by targeting critical supply routes. On March 22, Ghalibaf warned financial institutions that support U.S. military financing in the Middle East, declaring that U.S. Treasury bonds are “soaked in Iranians’ blood” and that their portfolios were under surveillance. Economist Jo Michell of the University of the West of England observes that falling equity markets, rising energy costs, and higher interest rates could eventually force President Donald Trump to seek a diplomatic exit from the conflict. Michell notes that Trump often delivers his most aggressive statements over weekends when markets are closed, only to retreat before the opening bell—a pattern traders have dubbed TACO (“Trump always chickens out”). Indeed, when Trump’s original 48‑hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz loomed, he extended it by five days and later pledged a further 10‑day pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure, actions that analysts interpret as deliberate market signaling. Middle‑East specialist Zeidon Alkinani explains that the conflict’s volatility creates new leverage points beyond direct price manipulation. Even light‑hearted rhetoric from officials like Ghalibaf can exacerbate market instability, as investors scramble for any hint of the war’s trajectory. In this environment, uncertainty itself becomes a powerful market driver. Alkinani stresses that the significance of the Strait of Hormuz now extends beyond physical oil flow disruptions; it reshapes investor expectations and amplifies the impact of digital messaging, especially given Trump’s high‑visibility online presence. Overall, Ghalibaf’s social‑media campaign illustrates how Tehran is blending military pressure with information warfare, turning market sentiment into an additional front of the broader geopolitical struggle.

Beirut, Lebanon – On 24 March, Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi announced that Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Sheibani, was declared persona non grata and ordered to depart by 29 March. Two days after the deadline, the envoy remained in Beirut, refusing to leave. The episode unfolds against a broader conflict that has already claimed more than 1,000 lives and displaced over 1.2 million people within a single month of Israeli military action in Lebanon. It also highlights a deepening schism in Lebanese politics between supporters of the pro‑Iranian Shia militia Hezbollah and those demanding its disarmament. Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, told Al Jazeera that the ambassador’s defiance is a symptom of a larger contest over legitimacy and authority. IRGC’s Strategic Role Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped forge Hezbollah in 1982 as a response to Israel’s invasion. Over the decades, Tehran’s billions of dollars in funding elevated Hezbollah to Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force. Hezbollah’s popularity peaked in 2000 after driving Israeli forces from south Lebanon, but subsequent engagements—including the 2006 war, the 2008 Beirut street battles, the Syrian civil war, and the 2019 domestic protests—have eroded its broader support. When Hezbollah entered open conflict with Israel on 8 October 2023, it enjoyed limited backing beyond the Shia community. By the November 2024 cease‑fire, the group was at a low point, with Israel having killed more than 4,000 Lebanese, including leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s command. International pressure then mounted for Hezbollah’s disarmament, prompting Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun to prioritize the issue. According to several analysts, the IRGC exploited the cease‑fire lull to dispatch officials to Lebanon, restructuring Hezbollah’s command and possibly ordering its re‑entry into the war on 2 March—just days after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated. Prime Minister Salam has publicly claimed the IRGC is “managing the military operation in Lebanon” and even accused Tehran of launching an attack on Cyprus. Ambassador Refuses to Exit In response to the perceived IRGC influence, Raggi’s declaration stripped Sheibani of diplomatic immunity. Dania Arayssi, senior analyst at the New Lines Institute, described the move as a “landmark decision” given Iran’s entrenched role in Lebanese politics. Iran’s Foreign Ministry, however, maintains that Sheibani will not depart, and Hezbollah has openly pledged to protect him, warning that any government attempt to disarm the militia will be met with “punishment.” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—longtime Hezbollah ally—initially backed the government’s ban on Hezbollah’s military activity after the March re‑entry, illustrating the fluidity of alliances within Lebanon’s power‑sharing system. State Authority Tested Hezbollah’s renewed campaign, which includes dozens of cross‑border attacks and direct engagements with Israeli forces on Lebanese soil, is reshaping the political calculus. The militia’s revived confidence challenges the Lebanese government’s ability to enforce disarmament. While the ambassador remains protected inside the Iranian diplomatic compound—effectively beyond the reach of Lebanese law—critics argue that Tehran’s refusal to honor the expulsion order undermines the state’s authority, already weakened by months of war. Salamey summed up the dilemma: “The state is asserting its authority on paper, but internal divisions and competing claims of legitimacy constrain its practical power, testing the limits of Lebanon’s fragile power‑sharing arrangement.”

Qatar’s foreign ministry announced that Iran’s recent assaults have crossed numerous red lines and stressed the urgent need for de‑escalation amid the ongoing US‑Israel war with Tehran.During a Tuesday press briefing, spokesperson Majed al‑Ansari warned that Iranian attacks on Qatar are having a catastrophic impact on bilateral relations.Al‑Ansari appealed to every combatant to refrain from targeting nuclear or energy infrastructure, cautioning that any further escalation will mean more losses for all parties.Since the joint US‑Israel offensive began at the end of February, Iran has struck a string of regional states—including Iraq, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan and Kuwait—despite none being directly involved in the conflict.While Tehran maintains that its operations target only U.S. assets in the region, the affected nations report damage to civilian infrastructure such as airports, power plants and ports, alongside civilian casualties.Qatar, a longtime mediator in Middle‑East disputes, clarified that it is not part of Pakistan’s diplomatic effort to end the war, though it continues “ongoing communications with all parties, including mediators and other regional players.” The Qatari side added that it fully supports Pakistan’s peace initiative and hopes it will yield lasting stability.In recent developments, Pakistan hosted a four‑nation dialogue with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to discuss ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Together with China, Pakistan unveiled a five‑point initiative calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran and Gulf states, safety of non‑military targets, secure shipping lanes—including the strategic Strait of Hormuz—and a durable peace grounded in the United Nations charter and international law.U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated that while diplomatic channels remain active, the United States is keeping the option of military escalation on the table.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Tehran has been exchanging messages with the United States, either directly or via regional partners, as the US‑Israel war on Iran continues. He emphasized that these contacts do not constitute formal negotiations. "I receive messages from US special envoy Steve Witkoff directly, as before, and this does not mean that we are in negotiations," Araghchi said. He added that all communications are routed through the Foreign Ministry or security agencies, and there is no truth to claims of active talks with any US party. Reflecting on past diplomatic experience, Araghchi recalled a previous agreement—referring to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—that the United States later abandoned. "We do not have any faith that negotiations with the US will yield results; the trust level is at zero," he asserted. President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed the skepticism, stating that the US "does not believe in diplomacy" after Iran was attacked twice during prior negotiations. In a phone call with European Council President Antonio Costa, Pezeshkian said Iran possesses the "necessary will" to end the war, but insists on guarantees to prevent further aggression. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth countered, saying Washington aims to secure a deal that would end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, yet remains prepared to "negotiate with bombs" if needed. Addressing the strategic waterway, Araghchi noted that the strait lies within Oman’s and Iran’s territorial waters and can be used strategically. "Only for the ships of those who are at war with us, this strait is closed. That is normal during war," he explained, adding that some nations avoid the route due to security concerns and high insurance costs, while others have negotiated access. He warned that any post‑war arrangement for the strait will be decided jointly by Oman and Iran, with the potential to transform it into a "peaceful waterway." Regarding rumors of a possible US ground operation, Araghchi said Tehran is unafraid: "We are waiting for them. I don’t think they’d dare to do such a thing. There will be a lot of strength waiting for them." He affirmed Iran’s readiness to repel any ground attack. The foreign minister clarified that Iran has neither responded to nor submitted any counter‑proposals to the US 15‑point plan aimed at ending the war. The proposal, according to earlier reports, calls for Iran to renounce the acquisition of nuclear weapons and to limit its missile stockpile in range and quantity. Araghchi concluded that Iran will only accept an end to all attacks in the region, not merely a ceasefire, underscoring the country's firm stance amid ongoing hostilities.

Coordinated strikes by United States and Israeli forces hit Tehran, Isfahan and several other Iranian cities on Tuesday, prompting widespread power outages and extensive damage to civilian sites. The Ministry of Energy confirmed that shrapnel from the raids ruptured a primary power‑transfer line, but the outage was restored within a few hours. Among the most critical targets was the Tofigh Darou pharmaceutical complex in the Karaj industrial zone. The facility, which supplies over 90% of Iran’s domestically produced medicines—including cancer and multiple‑sclerosis treatments—sustained heavy damage from multiple projectiles. In central Iran, Isfahan endured a barrage of heavy bunker‑buster bombs over a nearby mountainous area, likely aimed at military installations. The explosions triggered secondary blasts that illuminated the night sky and produced reverberating shockwaves across the city. North‑west of Tehran, in Zanjan, a building identified as the administrative department of the Hosseinieh Azam religious centre was struck, resulting in at least four fatalities and several injuries. Iranian authorities now claim that more than 2,000 people have been killed by US‑Israeli attacks since the conflict erupted on 28 February, with residential blocks, schools, hospitals and historic sites also affected. Additional targets this week included civilian nuclear facilities, major steel producers, petrochemical plants, and the Iran University of Science and Technology, where an imaging satellite was developed. A professor linked to Iran’s missile programme and his two children were assassinated at their home in northern Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated threats to strike Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure, power plants and water‑desalination facilities. Despite the onslaught, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to project defiance. A spokesperson for the Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters declared that Tehran’s adversaries are “humiliated and on the path of destruction,” while senior commander Ali Fadavi warned that American warships are vulnerable and allegedly transmit false transponder signals. The IRGC also released footage of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and surrounding nations, and claimed to have downed two U.S. MQ‑9 Reaper drones, promising retaliatory strikes against technology firms linked to the United States and Israel. Domestically, the judiciary announced the execution of two members of the foreign‑based Mojahedin‑e‑Khalq (MEK) group, labeling them terrorists. This follows a series of recent executions tied to the January protests and broader dissent. Authorities also issued new indictments against roughly 200 individuals accused of assisting the U.S. and Israel, including alleged “mercenaries” who disseminated strike footage abroad. Penalties for national‑security offenses now encompass asset confiscation and capital punishment. President Masoud Pezeshkian convened his first cabinet meeting since the war’s onset in a makeshift, blue‑covered space, emphasizing that any peace negotiations will safeguard Iran’s “dignity, security and national interests.” Israel’s Channel 14 reported that Pezeshkian sought greater negotiating leverage with the United States, a request allegedly rebuffed by IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi.

Islamabad – Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will travel to Beijing, reaffirming the “all‑weather strategic cooperative partnership” between the two nations, according to the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs.The visit follows a high‑profile quadrilateral meeting in Islamabad that brought together foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, all aiming to coax the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table amid a war that has already spiked global energy prices.Despite a recent hairline shoulder fracture, Dar pressed on with the trip, signalling the urgency of Pakistan’s diplomatic push. In a March 27 call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi praised Islamabad’s “untiring efforts to cool down the situation,” a sentiment echoed by spokesperson Mao Ning, who said China is ready to “enhance communication… for a cease‑fire and peace in the region.”Analysts argue the mission is less about collecting praise and more about testing whether Beijing will move from rhetoric to concrete action in the US‑Iran mediation. The central question: can China become an active partner rather than a silent observer?Former Wilson Center fellow Baqir Sajjad Syed explains that Dar will brief Chinese leaders on the recent Islamabad quadrilateral and seek to turn five draft principles – immediate ceasefire, resumption of talks, civilian protection, maritime security, and UN Charter compliance – into a binding framework.Pakistani scholars view the outreach as classic intermediary behaviour: Pakistan leverages China’s permanent‑member status to stay relevant, while China, unlike the United States, mainly engages with Gulf states and Tehran.Iran specialist Vali Nasr suggested Tehran may be looking for a Chinese “guarantor” for any US‑Iran deal, a premise disputed by professor Ishtiaq Ahmad, who calls the expectation “analytically weak” given China’s reluctance to back a declining regime.The strategic stakes are stark. The Strait of Hormuz moves roughly 20 % of global oil. Kpler data show China imported about 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian crude in 2025 – roughly 12 % of its total oil imports. The IEA estimates 15 million barrels per day passed through the strait in 2025, with China and India accounting for 44 % of that flow.China‑Iran trade hit about $41.2 billion in 2025, and a 2021 25‑year strategic cooperation pact promised up to $400 billion in Chinese investment for discounted Iranian oil, much of which remains unrealised due to U.S. sanctions.Syed describes China’s motivations as “clear and self‑interested”: protecting energy security, safeguarding Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, and bolstering its image as a global peace broker. A prolonged war would hurt China’s economy through higher oil prices and disrupted trade routes.While Beijing is unlikely to deploy military forces, it may employ diplomatic tools – public endorsements, joint statements, and economic levers – to push for a cease‑fire. Its pragmatic stance means it will weigh the benefits of deeper involvement against the risk of being drawn into a conflict.The diplomatic backdrop includes a postponed Trump visit to Beijing and a slated summit for mid‑May, as well as a future Xi‑to‑U.S. trip, which observers say could signal a broader alignment between the two great powers.Meanwhile, the United States continues to amass forces in the Gulf, with thousands of Marines and Army troops positioned for possible ground operations, underscoring the volatility that Pakistan and China are trying to mitigate.In sum, Dar’s Beijing mission tests whether China will remain a passive supporter or become an active broker in a war that threatens global energy markets and regional stability.

Israeli and U.S. forces launched a series of air strikes on Tuesday that struck Tofigh Daru Research and Engineering Company, one of Tehran’s largest producers of anaesthetics and anti‑cancer medicines. The state‑run firm, owned by the Social Security Investment Company, saw its drug‑production line damaged, according to an official post on X. In the north‑western city of Zanjan, a separate strike hit the Husseiniya Azam, a Shia congregation hall adjacent to a mosque. Iranian Red Crescent teams rescued two people from the rubble; one of the victims died and several others were injured. Further attacks were reported in the western province of Kermanshah, where a civilian contracting company in Qasr‑e Shirin – a border town with Iraq – was hit. One person was killed and eight injured, the Mehr news agency said. Heavy bombing was also confirmed in Isfahan, a strategic hub for Iran’s defence industry and home to key nuclear facilities such as Natanz. Local officials indicated that the strikes may have targeted “military sites,” though the exact locations and damage assessments remain unclear. Iranian officials condemned the operations. Former foreign minister Javad Zarif denounced the targeting of the pharmaceutical plant as a deliberate attack on a medical facility, calling the aggressors “desperate” and accusing them of “diabolical delusions.” Governor‑level security official Akbar Salehi echoed these concerns, noting that the strikes appeared aimed at military installations without specifying which ones. The broader conflict has already claimed 1,937 Iranian lives since the joint U.S.–Israeli campaign began on 28 February, while 20 Israelis have been killed. Recent Israeli interceptions using the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems have limited damage on Israeli soil, but impact sites were reported in Tel Aviv, Bnei Brak and Petah Tikva. Amid the escalating violence, diplomatic channels remain active. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera that communications between Washington and Tehran continue, primarily through intermediaries, and that the U.S. aims to achieve its war objectives “in weeks, not months.” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth added that negotiations to end the conflict are “very real, ongoing and gaining strength.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed a retaliatory strike, saying it hit an Israeli container ship in the Gulf with a ballistic missile and that Iranian drones targeted a group of U.S. Marines near a UAE military base. Public sentiment in Iran has turned sharply hostile, with pro‑state demonstrations erupting in Tehran as citizens protest the continued air raids. The atmosphere, described by Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi as a “cloud of mistrust,” reflects growing frustration over diplomatic dead‑ends and the relentless cycle of attacks.