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In a stark address delivered as the cease‑fire in the Iran conflict teetered, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war will leave a permanent scar on the global economy, slowing growth beyond the IMF’s original projections for 2026. Georgieva noted that, had the hostilities not erupted six weeks ago, the Fund would have been poised to raise its 2026 growth outlook. Instead, even the most optimistic scenario now entails a downgrade, and a swift return to pre‑war conditions appears unlikely. The uncertainty surrounding the cease‑fire—exacerbated by divergent positions of Washington and Tehran—has already pushed oil prices higher, reflecting fears of continued disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for world energy supplies. According to the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook, the conflict’s “scarring effects” will translate into lower living standards worldwide. The Fund had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a modest slowdown from 3.2% in 2025, buoyed by a tech‑driven investment surge. Georgieva emphasized that the war arrived when the economy was riding “considerable momentum” from technology investment and supportive financial markets. She outlined the mechanisms of damage: damaged infrastructure, supply‑chain interruptions, eroded confidence, and prolonged uncertainty over oil and gas production in the region. These factors will depress growth regardless of whether a peace agreement is ultimately reached. Georgieva highlighted that the most vulnerable will be net oil‑importing nations, poorer economies and small island states, which stand to feel the brunt of higher energy costs and reduced trade flows. She urged governments to avoid unilateral measures such as export bans or price controls, warning that such actions could "pour gasoline on the fire" and further destabilise markets. With many countries already carrying elevated debt levels and higher borrowing costs, the IMF chief called for targeted, temporary assistance to protect the most at‑risk households. She cautioned against broad tax cuts or blanket energy subsidies, which could stoke inflation and strain fragile public finances. Central banks, she added, should keep policy rates steady while remaining ready to act against inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who also chairs the Financial Stability Board, echoed the IMF’s concerns, describing the conflict as a "very big shock" that has heightened market volatility. He stressed that the situation remains fluid and that policymakers must stay vigilant. Overall, the IMF’s message is clear: the Iran war will reshape the global growth trajectory for the foreseeable future, and coordinated, prudent policy responses are essential to mitigate its lasting impact.

Israel's attacks on Lebanon have intensified, with the country launching its largest and most destructive attack on Lebanon in years, killing at least 300 people and wounding over 1,100. The attacks have sparked widespread panic and overwhelmed hospitals in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.The escalation has significant implications for the US-Iran ceasefire, which was agreed upon just days ago. Iranian leaders are accusing the US of failing to uphold the truce and threatening to back out of it unless Washington restrains its ally, Israel. 'The U.S. must choose – ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,' Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote on Twitter/X.The conflict has been fueled by Netanyahu's actions, who has sought to expand the conflict out of Gaza and into a wider war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister has undermined ceasefire talks and blocked potential deals, adding new conditions or changing his mind at the last minute. 'There is no ceasefire in Lebanon,' Netanyahu said in a recorded message, as Israel continued its attacks.The situation is volatile, with Hezbollah showing it is not as weak as Israel and the US had thought. The militia has fought pitched battles with invading Israeli troops and fired hundreds of rockets and drones at northern Israel. The conflict has forcibly displaced over 1.1 million people, many of whom are living on the streets.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte revealed that Donald Trump was 'clearly disappointed' that US allies refused to join the war against Iran during a closed-door meeting in Washington. This comes as the alliance faces scrutiny over its response to the conflict.Rutte described the meeting with Trump as 'very frank, very open' between 'two good friends,' but declined to directly address whether Trump raised his threat to withdraw from NATO over the Iran war.The meeting occurred against the backdrop of a fragile two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement was reached after Trump threatened to target Iran's civilian infrastructure if Tehran didn't allow safe passage through the strait.Trump has been critical of NATO, calling it a 'paper tiger' and suggesting the US may consider leaving after NATO member countries ignored his call for military assistance to help reopen the critical waterway. Global oil prices have soared due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: 'NATO WASN'T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON'T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.' Trump's frustrations with the alliance 'began' with their opposition to his desired takeover of Greenland.Despite these tensions, Republican senator Mitch McConnell issued a statement in support of the alliance, urging Trump to be 'clear and consistent' and emphasizing that it's not in America's interest to 'spend more time nursing grudges with allies who share our interests than deterring adversaries who threaten us.'Congress passed a law in 2023 that prevents any US president from pulling out of NATO without its approval, championed by Trump's current secretary of state, Marco Rubio.

Lebanon's prime minister expressed approval for a recently announced US‑Iran ceasefire, describing it as a hopeful step toward de‑escalation in the Middle East. The endorsement came at a time when Israeli strikes targeted areas of Beirut, causing renewed concern over civilian safety and regional stability. While the ceasefire signals a potential cooling of tensions between Washington and Tehran, the ongoing Israeli operations highlight the complex and often contradictory dynamics shaping the conflict landscape.

Pakistan's diplomatic efforts culminated in a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed upon just hours before US President Donald Trump's deadline to destroy Iran's 'civilisation'. The ceasefire was announced by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social, and confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.The breakthrough was facilitated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, who engaged in extensive diplomacy with both sides. Sharif publicly announced the ceasefire, inviting both delegations to Islamabad for further negotiations. The talks are expected to begin on Friday, potentially involving a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance.The conflict, which began on February 28, had killed over 2,000 people in Iran and disrupted roughly a fifth of the world's oil supplies. Pakistan's role as a mediator was seen as a significant diplomatic achievement, with both Washington and Tehran acknowledging its efforts.The ceasefire is not a peace deal, and key differences remain unresolved, including Iran's uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts view Pakistan's role as a major shift in its diplomatic efforts, positioning itself at the centre of a significant diplomatic initiative.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Iran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz and talks set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agreement was reached after a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and pressure from China.Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured for two weeks through coordination with the country's armed forces. Under the agreement, Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge transit fees on passing ships, with Tehran planning to use the revenue for post-war reconstruction.The ceasefire was agreed upon just an hour before US President Donald Trump's deadline to escalate the conflict expired. Trump's move followed a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister, who urged Washington to extend its deadline for a deal and called on Iran to reopen the strait. The breakthrough came after talks with Pakistan's leadership, which had pushed for a ceasefire.Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan, which includes lifting sanctions, creating a war-loss fund, a potential US troop withdrawal from the Gulf, and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium in exchange for a pledge not to build nuclear weapons. However, it is unclear whether the US has agreed to any of these proposals.The ceasefire has triggered street celebrations in Tehran and Baghdad, with Iranian leaders declaring the conflict is ending 'on Iran's terms'. However, some citizens remain skeptical, warning the US and Israel may be using the pause to 'buy time' and regroup.The agreement has also had an impact on the global economy, with crude prices falling below $100 after Trump's announcement. However, analysts remain cautious, with markets in 'wait-and-see mode' as a 'big gap' remains in negotiations.

Washington, D.C. – President Donald Trump declared a two‑week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, just hours after threatening a massive attack on the country. The pause will allow Iran to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz while both sides negotiate a longer‑term settlement. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a noted Iran hawk, welcomed the diplomatic move but stressed extreme caution. He praised the “hard work” of negotiators but warned that any agreement must be scrutinized, noting that Iran’s 10‑point plan reportedly offers sanctions relief and permits Tehran to retain control of the strait. Graham also warned that Iran must not be rewarded for its earlier attacks on the strait, writing on X: “We must remember that the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran after the start of the war, destroying freedom of navigation. Going forward, it is imperative Iran is not rewarded for this hostile act against the world.” Democratic senators, while relieved that U.S. forces would be out of immediate danger, seized the moment to demand accountability. Senator Ruben Gallego said, “Stopping war is good… we can criticize why we got into this war, the illegality of it and hold the Trump admin accountable. But right now I am relieved.” Other Democrats, including Senator Ed Markey and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez, warned that the ceasefire does not erase the fact that the conflict was launched without congressional authorization and that targeting civilian infrastructure may constitute war crimes. Ocasio‑Cortez wrote, “The President has threatened a genocide against the Iranian people… launched a massive war… without reason, rationale, nor Congressional authorization – which is as clear a violation of the Constitution as any.” Critics on the right, such as far‑right activist Laura Loomer and commentator Mark Levin, dismissed the truce as a temporary pause, predicting the war will resume. Loomer warned, “The negotiation is a negative for our country… I don’t know why people are acting like this is a win.” Levin added, “This enemy is still the enemy; they’re still surviving.” The conflict, which began on February 28 without a congressional war declaration, has already seen high‑profile strikes, including an attack that the article claims killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a devastating strike on a girls’ school in Minab that killed over 170 civilians, mostly children. Economically, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the war sent oil and gas prices soaring, underscoring the strategic importance of the waterway. Senator Chris Murphy (D) warned that allowing Iran to control the strait would be a “history‑changing win” for Tehran. Across the aisle, lawmakers agree that the ceasefire is not a clean slate. Advocacy director Raed Jarrar of DAWN urged an immediate congressional investigation into the war’s origins, funding, and accountability for civilian casualties. As the two‑week pause unfolds, U.S. officials and legislators will closely monitor negotiations, with the broader debate over war powers, constitutional authority, and potential impeachment of President Trump remaining front and center in Washington.

Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, announced that Jerusalem backs the United States' decision to suspend aerial attacks on Iran for a two‑week period, while emphasizing that the truce excludes Lebanon. The statement, posted on X on Wednesday, aligns Israel with President Donald Trump's objective of neutralising Iran's nuclear, missile and terror capabilities across the region. Netanyahu noted that Washington has communicated its commitment to these goals ahead of the forthcoming negotiations scheduled for Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan. He reiterated that the ceasefire's scope is limited, explicitly stating that "the two‑week ceasefire does not include Lebanon." The Israeli clarification arrives after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared that the United States, Iran and their allies had reached an "immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere," a move he said would take effect instantly. This contrasting messaging highlights a potential rift among allies regarding the breadth of the pause in hostilities. While the United States appears to pursue a broader de‑escalation, Israel's exclusion of Lebanon signals lingering concerns over Hezbollah's involvement and the security of its northern border. Analysts warn that the disagreement could complicate diplomatic efforts in Islamabad, where regional actors will seek to solidify a framework that addresses Iran's nuclear ambitions without igniting further conflict in Lebanon. Further updates will follow as the situation develops.