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The US-Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, has escalated into a war of attrition with no clear strategy or end in sight. The US continues to hit Iranian targets while building up forces in the region, while Iran launches missile and drone attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf states.The conflict has significant economic implications, with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing oil prices to surge and disrupting global supply chains. The pain is likely to get worse, with shortages already felt across the world, from Asian factories to European diesel markets.The war should never have been started, with the threat not imminent, objectives unclear, and justification falling apart under scrutiny. Responsibility rests with Donald Trump and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu. The delusion that force can impose a more compliant regime in Tehran has predictably given rise to a conflict that sustains itself.The only plausible exit is negotiation without preconditions. However, Mr. Trump mixes threats of escalation and claims that negotiations are progressing, with little evidence of a meaningful diplomatic track. The conflict cannot be separated from Gaza, where Mr. Netanyahu is gambling that war with Iran will restore his standing.If US ground forces are committed, the dynamic shifts, and American casualties will harden resolve among those who backed the intervention, making withdrawal politically harder. World powers can shift the incentives away from a US ground war by working together to insulate themselves from economic pain and coordinate diplomatic messaging.

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed group in Yemen, have recently launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This move has analysts warning of a potential new front in the war, particularly with the group's ability to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a crucial passage for global commodities trade.The strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a key route for 10% of global trade, including a significant share of oil and gas shipments. Blocking this strait could have severe implications for the global economy, potentially disrupting trade and leading to increased inflation.Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, announced the group's first attack on Israel, followed by a second military operation using cruise missiles and drones. The Houthis have warned they will continue military operations until Israel ceases its aggression.The group's actions are seen as a significant development in the conflict, with Iran likely to welcome the Houthis' involvement. However, the extent of their participation remains uncertain, with some analysts describing their actions as token participation rather than full engagement.If the Houthis were to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, it would create a nightmare scenario for global trade, particularly for Europe. This move, combined with potential restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, could cripple trade and have far-reaching economic consequences.Analysts suggest that the Houthis' current posture reflects a deliberate calculation rather than restraint born of weakness. Their decision to target Israel directly, rather than escalating in the Red Sea, indicates a strategic approach aligned with Tehran's broader strategy.For now, the Houthis' threat to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait remains a significant concern, with global trade and economies potentially hanging in the balance.

Pakistan has become a key player in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between the US and Iran, hosting a meeting of foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan in Islamabad. The two-day consultations aim to align regional positions and prepare the ground for possible direct US-Iran engagement, with Pakistan acting as the central interlocutor between the two nations. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a 90-minute phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, focusing on de-escalation and trust-building measures. Pezeshkian stressed that confidence-building measures are required before Tehran can consider direct dialogue. The Islamabad meeting is not a negotiation, but rather preparation for potential talks. Its goals are to consolidate regional backing for de-escalation and harmonize positions on ceasefire sequencing. Iran has transmitted its response to the US proposal via Islamabad, with demands including an end to hostilities, reparations for damages, guarantees against future attacks, and recognition of its strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. The next 48 to 72 hours will determine whether this diplomatic push produces a meeting between US and Iranian officials. If successful, it could provide the political cover both Washington and Tehran need to enter talks without appearing to concede.

Top diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey have gathered in Islamabad for two-day talks with their Pakistani counterpart on the escalating conflict between the US and Israel against Iran. The goal is to seek a de-escalation of the situation.The talks, led by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, follow Iran's agreement to allow 20 more ships under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with two ships permitted daily. This development was announced by Dar on Saturday.Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had a detailed telephone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Saturday, lasting over an hour, as part of preparations for the Islamabad talks. Sharif emphasized Pakistan's commitment to bringing an end to the conflict.Al Jazeera's Kamal Kyder, reporting from Islamabad, noted that Pakistan has been acting as a key interlocutor between the US and Iran, facilitating communication between the two sides as part of mediation efforts. He described the gathering in Islamabad as the beginning of a critical process that hinges on diplomacy and dialogue.The talks in Islamabad are seen as a crucial step towards finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Iran's President Pezeshkian has thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts to stop the aggression against Iran. With Islamabad's longstanding links with Tehran and close contacts in the Gulf, Pakistan is well-positioned to play a key role in these diplomatic efforts.Meanwhile, the risk of an expanded Iran war increased on Saturday as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict. The developments underscore the complexity and volatility of the situation in the Middle East.

The Pentagon is gearing up for weeks of limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials. These plans, which fall short of a full invasion, may involve special operations and conventional infantry troops.The operations would expose US personnel to Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosives. The plans have been discussed within the administration over the past month, with objectives under consideration including the seizure of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub in the Gulf.According to officials, the objectives would likely take weeks, not months to complete. The Pentagon has not responded to requests for comment, and Iran has yet to respond to the report.The developments come as Pakistan mediates between Washington and Tehran, hosting talks with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Iran is prepared to respond to any ground attack, stating that the enemy's plans for a ground attack are being met with readiness from Iranian forces.Iran's navy chief, Shahram Irani, also warned that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier would be targeted if it comes within range. The situation remains tense, with Iran posing a credible threat in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which lies between Yemen and Djibouti.

The US-Israel war on Iran has entered its 30th day, with diplomatic efforts intensifying to bring an end to the conflict. Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are scheduled to hold talks in Islamabad, aimed at de-escalating the situation.The conflict has escalated across the Middle East, with Yemen's Houthis joining the war by firing missiles at Israel on Saturday. Tehran has threatened retaliatory attacks on Israeli and US universities in the region after the United States and Israel bombed Iranian universities.US-Israeli strikes have continued, with powerful explosions rocking Tehran on Sunday morning, killing two people and wounding five in a residential area. The Iranian Fars news agency reported that US-Israeli attacks also hit the Saadat Abad neighbourhood of northern Tehran and another residential area in the west of the capital.In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed 10 drones in the early hours of Sunday, while the UAE Ministry of Defence said its air defences responded to missiles and drone threats. Emirates Global Aluminium reported that an Iranian attack on Saturday inflicted significant damage on one of its sites in Abu Dhabi and wounded six employees.Iran's power has been underestimated, according to Al Jazeera's Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran. He said that one month into the war, Iran has proved that its power was underestimated by the enemy, who thought that the war would be a short excursion and that the country would capitulate after just a few days of bombardment.The conflict has also led to protests in Lebanon, with protesters taking to the streets in Beirut after Israeli forces killed journalists Fatima Ftouni and her brother and colleague, Mohammed, of Al Mayadeen, as well as Al-Manar's Ali Shuaib on Saturday.In Israel, people took to the streets in Tel Aviv, rallying against the war and increased settler violence, as they clashed with police. The Israeli military announced the death of a soldier, Moshe Yitzhak HaCohen Katz, in southern Lebanon as Hezbollah's attacks on northern Israel continue.The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said some 3,500 additional soldiers arrived in the Middle East on board the USS Tripoli. The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, although Al Jazeera could not independently verify the report.

Recent air strikes on Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have resulted in the deaths of three PMF fighters and two Iraqi police officers. The attacks, which occurred near northern Iraq's Kirkuk Airport, also left two fighters wounded and six Iraqi soldiers injured.An Iraqi security source revealed that the double-bombing was part of the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, which has been spilling over into Iraq's eastern border. The PMF, a coalition now integrated into the regular Iraqi army, accused the US and Israel of a 'treacherous Zionist-American' attack.In a separate incident, Reuters reported that two members of the Iraqi police were killed in an air strike targeting the PMF in Mosul, approximately 105 miles northwest of Kirkuk. This development has contributed to the escalating tensions in the region.Al Jazeera's Nicolas Haque reported from Baghdad that Iraq is becoming an 'expanding battleground' in the crisis. The conflict began on February 28 with US-Israeli strikes on Iran and now threatens to engulf the region in a protracted conflict.The PMF, formed in 2014 to fight ISIL (ISIS), has been targeted by pro-Iran armed groups within the coalition. These groups have claimed responsibility for attacks on US interests in Iraq and beyond.Haque noted that the PMF takes its orders from Baghdad, but some factions are loyal to Tehran. This complex dynamic makes it challenging for Baghdad to manage the different factions effectively.Iraq finds itself 'on a tightrope' between the US and Iran, said Haque, due to its economic and security ties with both countries. The government must balance its relationships with its biggest neighbor, Iran, and the United States.In related incidents, two drones targeted an airbase serving as a hub for US and coalition forces near Erbil airport in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The US C-RAM air defence system successfully intercepted the drones.French President Emmanuel Macron described the increased attacks in Iraq as a 'worrying development' after speaking to Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdish region.

Pakistan's attempts to facilitate peace talks between Iran and the US are encountering substantial obstacles. The intensification of Israeli bombing campaigns on civilian targets in Iran and an expanding US military presence in the Gulf region are casting a shadow over these efforts.Pakistan, maintaining relative neutrality with good relations with both Iran and the US, had hoped to provide a venue for negotiations. However, the conflict is widening, trust is scarce, and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are far apart. Pakistani officials believe Israel's actions pose a significant risk to any potential talks, particularly given recent attacks on civilian nuclear sites and steel plants.Iran's core concerns include ensuring an end to the war and preventing future attacks by the US and Israel. Former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Maleeha Lodhi, expressed skepticism about US President Donald Trump's reliability, citing his unpredictable nature.Despite these challenges, Pakistan continues its diplomatic efforts. The country's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has been in communication with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are set to hold talks in Islamabad to discuss ending the conflict.The situation remains complex, with US troop buildup suggesting that peace talks may not align with US plans. Iran has expressed distrust towards previous US interlocutors, but there is consideration for US Vice-President JD Vance to represent the US in talks, an idea supported by Iran.

The Houthis, a Shia sect backed by Iran, have entered the conflict with missile attacks on Israeli military sites. The true significance of their involvement depends on whether they intend to launch sporadic attacks or effectively close off the Red Sea to shipping. Disruption of the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Strait of Hormuz could have a devastating impact on global trade and economy. The Houthis' ability to interdict ships poses a significant threat, and their actions could drive up shipping costs and oil prices. The Houthis have a complex relationship with Iran, receiving arms from Tehran but not directly fighting on its behalf. A ceasefire with the US, mediated by Oman, has been in place since May 2025, but it does not apply to Israel. Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen's future is crucial, as it seeks to reach deals with the Houthis and former Southern Transitional Council (STC) supporters. The Houthis may act cautiously, seeking financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. The conflict could drag Yemen further into regional war, making peace more difficult and prolonging civilian suffering. The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has warned of the escalation's risks, stating it will deepen economic repercussions and prolong the suffering of civilians.