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Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Iran, threatening to "obliterate" its power stations and fresh water plants if a peace deal is not reached soon. This comes as the US and Israel's joint war against Iran enters its second month, with Tehran remaining defiant in the face of US peace proposals.The conflict has already had significant repercussions, including a record monthly rise in oil prices and concerns over a potential US ground operation to seize Kharg Island. Trump's threat to destroy civilian infrastructure, such as power and water facilities, has been condemned by human rights groups as a potential war crime.The White House has also suggested that Arab countries may be asked to help foot the bill for the war, adding a new dimension to the conflict. "It's an idea that I know that he has," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.International pressure is mounting, with Spain closing its airspace to US planes involved in the conflict and the UK's prime minister reiterating that "this is not our war and we are not going to get dragged into it". Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has called on Trump to end the war, warning that "no one will be able to stop the war in our region".The conflict threatens to plunge the global economy into recession and trigger shortages of food and pharmaceuticals. The International Monetary Fund has warned that "all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth worldwide" if the conflict continues.

The price of oil has surged to $116 a barrel after Donald Trump's comments on seizing Iranian oil, sparking concerns over a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose by 2% in early trading on Monday.Trump told the Financial Times that his 'favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran,' which led to a significant increase in oil prices and a drop in Asian stock markets. Japan's Nikkei fell by 3%, while the South Korean Kospi dropped 3.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed about 1%.The conflict in the Middle East has escalated with the arrival of 3,500 US troops and Houthi rebels in Yemen firing ballistic missiles at Israeli sites. This has led to concerns over a potential disruption in oil supplies, causing natural gas prices to increase in Europe.Analysts warn that if the conflict doesn't end quickly, crude could rise to $150 or even $200 per barrel, which could lead to a global recession. The UK's Keir Starmer is set to hold talks with bosses from Shell, BP, and Equinor to discuss emergency measures to contain the crisis.The war in the Middle East has driven Brent crude to its biggest monthly gain ever, up by 59% since the start of March. Industry figures have warned of potential temporary shortages at petrol pumps in the UK due to the conflict.

Ed Miliband's stock is rising in the Labour Party as he fills a void left by Morgan McSweeney's departure, becoming a key figure in shaping the party's thinking. His influence has grown significantly in recent weeks, with some suggesting he is the real prime minister, calling the shots on key issues. Miliband's popularity among Labour members has increased, with him leapfrogging Angela Rayner as the membership's favourite cabinet minister. This surge in popularity has led to speculation that he could potentially win a leadership contest if one were to happen. The Labour Party's shift to the left, partly due to the Greens' victory in Gorton and Denton, has contributed to Miliband's rise. His reputation as a deep thinker and intellectual heavyweight has become increasingly valuable in a time when the party needs to address complex global challenges. Miliband's background in intellectual pursuits has prepared him for this role. Having cut his teeth in Gordon Brown's court, which was known for its intellectual voraciousness, Miliband has developed a unique ability to think through complex arguments from first principles. The current political landscape, marked by an energy crisis, potential recession, and rising populism, has highlighted the need for big ideas. Miliband's approach, which emphasizes thoughtful consideration and intellectual rigor, is seen as a welcome change from the party's previous focus on small, practical solutions. While Miliband is not infallible, his tendency to think years ahead of his time has been noted by those who have worked with him. His ideas, though not always successful, have the potential to sharpen the party's mental blades for the challenges ahead. In conclusion, Ed Miliband's rise to prominence is a reflection of the Labour Party's need for intellectual heavyweights who can provide big ideas and thoughtful leadership in a rapidly changing world.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

Europe is bracing for a potential energy crisis, with fuel rationing possible as early as April if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil and gas supplies, remains closed. Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan, issued this stark warning at a major oil industry conference in Texas, highlighting the escalating risks to global energy supplies.The crisis, now in its fourth week, has already led to energy rationing in Asian countries and significant price hikes for jet fuel, which has doubled in price since the start of the conflict. Sawan predicts that diesel and petrol will come under pressure next, particularly as the summer driving season begins in the US and Europe.Oil prices have fluctuated, dipping back to about $100 a barrel on Wednesday after reaching highs of around $114 earlier in the week. These developments have raised concerns about the potential for a prolonged global economic recession if oil prices continue to rise, with some predictions suggesting they could hit $150 a barrel.Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, warned of profound implications for the world economy if the conflict continues to drive up oil prices. He outlined two possible scenarios: one where the conflict resolves quickly, allowing oil prices to return to pre-crisis levels of about $70 a barrel, and another where prices remain high for years, potentially leading to a stark and steep recession.Germany's economy minister, Katherina Reiche, also spoke at the conference, cautioning that energy supply scarcity could occur in late April or May if the conflict continues. She criticized Germany's decision to phase out nuclear energy and emphasized the need for greater imports of gas via super-chilled tankers from overseas.

The rising tensions in Iran have sparked fears of a potential global economic recession. The country's involvement in conflicts has historically led to oil price shocks and market volatility, which can have far-reaching effects on the world economy.Experts warn that an escalation of the conflict could lead to supply chain disruptions, inflation, and economic instability. This, in turn, could increase the likelihood of a recession, which would have significant implications for global trade and economic growth.