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Shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted even after Washington and Tehran announced a two‑week ceasefire on Tuesday, dampening expectations of a swift end to one of the most severe energy disruptions in recent memory. According to ship‑tracking data from market‑intelligence firm Kpler, only five vessels crossed the waterway on Wednesday, down from eleven the day before, and seven managed the passage on Thursday. The figure is a stark contrast to the pre‑conflict norm of 120‑140 daily transits that the strait typically handled before the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, are still stranded in the Gulf, as reported by Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Ana Subasic, Kpler’s trade‑risk analyst, warned that even if the ceasefire holds, safe‑passage capacity is likely to stay limited to 10–15 ships per day, reflecting shipowners’ caution and the absence of any toll‑free guarantee. The strait channels roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. Its continued blockage therefore sustains pressure on global energy markets. After a brief dip, Brent crude rose to $96.39 a barrel at 02:00 GMT on Friday, having slipped below $95 the previous day. U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire’s “safe passage” clause, labeling Tehran’s performance “very poor” in a Truth Social post. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, countered that the United States had not honored its commitments, urging Washington to choose between a genuine ceasefire and “continued war” linked to Israel’s actions in Lebanon. Maritime veteran C Uday Bhaskar described the atmosphere in the strait as one of “uncertainty and anxiety,” noting that shipping firms remain fearful, especially after Iranian statements about newly laid mines. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE’s state‑run oil giant ADNOC, echoed the sentiment, asserting that Iran’s conditional permissions amount to “coercion, not freedom of navigation.” Asian equity markets responded positively to the tentative easing of oil price pressure. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.8 %, South Korea’s KOSPI rose about 2 %, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained roughly 1 % in early Friday trading. While the ceasefire offers a diplomatic window, the reality on the water remains stark: the Strait of Hormuz is far from open, and the global energy system continues to feel the strain of constrained maritime traffic.

The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

Shell is poised to report a substantial increase in profits from its commodity trading activities in the first quarter, driven by recent market volatility sparked by the Iran crisis. The energy giant's chemicals and products unit, which encompasses its primary oil trading desk, is expected to see a significant boost in trading results.The company's trading windfall is particularly notable in its renewable energy division, with predicted earnings ranging from $200m to $700m in the first quarter, up from approximately $100m in the previous quarter. This surge is attributed to the historic price rises in oil and gas markets following Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli aggression, which included throttling energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz and launching strikes against key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.However, Shell's gas production is expected to decline by about 5% to between 880,000 and 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 948,000 in the fourth quarter, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on its assets in Qatar. A strike damaged Shell's assets at the Ras Laffan liquified natural gas (LNG) complex in Qatar, contributing to the expected decline.Despite these challenges, Shell's boss, Wael Sawan, has warned that Europe could face an energy and fuel shortage in April without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The company is working with governments to address the oil and gas supply crisis, which has already led to energy rationing in some Asian countries.

The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant disruption in global fuel supplies, causing a surge in energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz blockade and air strikes on key energy facilities in the Gulf have resulted in a nearly complete halt to shipping through the strait, which is a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Egypt's government has announced several measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis on its energy resources. These include reducing fuel allocations for government vehicles by 30 percent, cutting street lighting and advertisement lighting by 50 percent, and implementing 9pm shutdowns for shops, malls, and restaurants from March 28, except on Thursdays and Fridays. Additionally, eligible employees will work remotely on Sundays starting April 1, with some essential services exempted from this policy. The country's energy import bill has increased from $1.2bn in January to $2.5bn in March, putting pressure on Egypt's economy, which is already heavily indebted. The government has also raised fuel prices by 14-30 percent to manage demand and conserve state energy resources. Other countries are also taking steps to conserve energy. Malaysia has ordered civil servants to work from home, while Pakistan has imposed restrictions on market and shopping mall operating hours. Bangladesh has reduced working hours for government and private workers, and Sri Lanka and Slovenia have introduced fuel rationing and purchase limits to manage shortages and soaring costs.

In an urgent 11‑hour appeal posted on X, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif asked U.S. President Donald Trump to push back the deadline for his proposed Iran deal by two weeks. Sharif also called on Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same period, framing the move as a goodwill gesture that could bolster ongoing diplomatic talks aimed at ending the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran. Sharif wrote that “Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in the near future,” and added that a temporary cease‑fire across the region would give negotiations a chance to succeed. The White House, through press secretary Karoline Leavitt, confirmed that President Trump is aware of Pakistan’s proposal and that an official response will be forthcoming. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran is “positively reviewing” the request. Trump has intensified his rhetoric, warning on Truth Social that the United States would “destroy the Iranian civilization” if Tehran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz and comply with his terms. Iran has responded by nearly halting maritime traffic through the waterway, which carries about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments, as retaliation for recent U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iranian soil. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned it would not hesitate to strike back if U.S. forces target civilian facilities. In parallel, Israel has launched attacks on Iranian railways and bridges, while Iranian forces have struck targets in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. A Pakistani source speaking to Al Jazeera noted that “we’re at a dangerous escalation, but the possibility of diplomacy can’t be ruled out till the last minute,” emphasizing Islamabad’s commitment to keeping all diplomatic channels open despite internal opposition. Legal experts have warned that Trump’s threats to target civilian infrastructure could amount to a war crime. Yale University professor and U.S. legal scholar Oona Hathaway warned that any such action would become “exhibit A” in future war‑crimes tribunals, noting that there is no statute of limitations for these offenses. As the deadline looms, the international community watches to see whether Trump will grant the requested extension, whether Iran will reopen the strategic strait, and whether diplomatic momentum can translate into a lasting cease‑fire in the volatile Middle East.

Karim Baksh of Dasht, a remote Balochistan village, once relied on a diesel‑powered pump to irrigate his watermelon fields. After the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war drove diesel prices sky‑high, he could no longer afford the fuel, forcing him to cut back his cultivated area. In 2023 he took a gamble: borrowing 300,000 Pakistani rupees (≈ $1,075) from relatives and installing a modest row of solar panels. Three years later, the panels run his pump without diesel, letting him water his crops even as global oil markets tumble amid the US‑Israel war on Iran and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of world oil and gas normally flows. Baksh’s experience reflects a broader national shift. Pakistan imports about 80% of its oil via the Hormuz chokepoint and sources 99% of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE. A Council on Foreign Relations report warns that a prolonged closure could trigger severe power shortages, factory shutdowns, and transport disruptions. Yet a quiet solar revolution is building resilience. Since 2018, rooftop solar installations have saved Pakistan over $12 billion in fuel imports, and at current prices the sector is projected to save another $6.3 billion this year alone. According to the independent think‑tank EMBER, solar’s share of the national energy mix surged from 2.9% in 2020 to 32.3% in 2025. This growth is not the result of a single government plan but of millions of individual decisions—farmers swapping diesel pumps, businesses installing panels, and households seeking reliable electricity. In urban centres such as Lahore and Karachi, solar rooftops are commonplace. Homeowners typically recoup installation costs within a few years, enjoy free electricity thereafter, and can even sell surplus power back to the grid through net‑metering. By 2025, 25% of Pakistani households use solar in some form, up from 15% in 2023, with over 280,000 consumers now participating in net‑metering schemes. However, the benefits are uneven. The upfront cost of a 3 kW system—about 450,000 rupees ($1,610)—and larger commercial setups costing up to 2.2 million rupees ($7,874) remain out of reach for many low‑income families. Analysts warn that non‑solar users, largely poorer households, are subsidising the grid usage of solar owners. Net‑metering has already shifted an estimated 159 billion rupees (≈ $570 million) of costs onto other consumers, raising concerns about a two‑tier energy system. The rapid expansion is powered largely by imports from China, which controls roughly 80% of the global solar supply chain. Chinese lithium‑ion batteries, now 20% cheaper than in 2024, enable storage for nighttime use, further reducing reliance on the national grid. Solar panel prices have plummeted: from 100‑120 rupees per watt in the early 2010s to about 30 rupees per watt today. This price collapse, combined with electricity shortages and rising tariffs after the 2022 oil price spike, made solar an attractive alternative for those able to invest. Government policy has been mixed. A 2015 net‑metering scheme encouraged adoption by offering roughly 25 rupees ($0.090) per kilowatt‑hour for exported power and by reducing import taxes on panels. More recently, concerns over the financial strain on the power sector led to a cut in the buy‑back rate to about 10 rupees ($0.036) per kilowatt‑hour. For Baksh, the policy shifts matter little. His solar‑powered pump guarantees water for his watermelons regardless of diesel price swings or geopolitical turmoil. He plans to expand his solar array, increase production, and ship his harvest to larger markets in Quetta and Karachi. In a region where temperatures can soar to 51 °C (124 °F), the sun has become a reliable ally—ensuring that, for farmers like Baksh, “the water keeps flowing no matter what.”

Vietnam’s gig‑economy is under pressure as fuel prices soar following the Iran‑related blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Nguyen, an e‑hailing driver in Ho Chi Minh City, reported that a 7‑hour shift earned him 240,000 VND (≈$9.11) while fuel alone cost 120,000 VND (≈$4.56), wiping out half his income.Diesel prices have more than doubled and petrol has risen by almost 30 %, straining riders who rely on motorcycles – the dominant transport mode in a city of over 7 million two‑wheelers.In response, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced a temporary suspension of the environmental tax on diesel, petrol and aviation fuel until 15 April, a move that will forfeit an estimated $273 million in revenue but aims to curb the price surge.Experts warn the shock highlights Vietnam’s vulnerability to external conflicts. Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS‑Yusof Ishak Institute, said the tax cut is essential to “keep macro‑economic stability intact” amid “turbulence outside Vietnam”.Beyond gig workers, the ripple effect reaches public transport and airlines. Bus operators have raised fares by 3,000 VND (≈$0.11) yet still face losses, while Vietnam Airlines and Vietjet have trimmed flight schedules.Gig workers lack collective bargaining power. Do Hai Ha, a University of Melbourne research fellow, noted that platform drivers “have no chance to negotiate with the platforms” and are excluded from minimum‑wage or overtime protections, forcing many to work longer hours for diminishing returns.Small‑scale entrepreneurs are also feeling the pinch. A fisherman from Binh Thuan reported that his catch price fell from 800,000 VND (≈$30) to 650,000 VND (≈$24) as fuel costs climbed, while a bus fare collector on route 13 said the company cannot absorb the higher fuel bill despite modest fare hikes.Households are cutting back on essential goods. Uyen Pham of Saigon Children’s Charity observed that the price of bottled cooking gas has nearly doubled, prompting low‑income families to revert to wood‑fuel stoves and limit travel to see relatives.The crisis is prompting a strategic rethink on energy policy. Giang warned that Vietnam’s reliance on just two refineries – which currently meet only 40 % of national petrol demand – is unsustainable, urging accelerated investment in domestic refining capacity.Corporate responses are already shifting. Vingroup, the country’s largest conglomerate, announced it would pause a planned LNG‑fired power plant and redirect funds to renewable projects, citing “significant risk of high fuel prices” linked to the war.For workers like Duy, who runs a café near a petrol station, the tax suspension offers modest relief: projected price cuts of about 25 % for petrol and 5 % for diesel could ease daily expenses that had briefly doubled.

President Donald Trump has proposed that the United States could charge a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the war with Iran. This move would likely require direct US military control over the strategic waterway, which connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and handles about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).Trump made these comments while issuing what he called a 'final' ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the strait and agree to Washington's terms or face attacks against Iran's civilian infrastructure. He emphasized that any deal with Iran must include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring 'free traffic of oil'.The US president's suggestion comes as Iran has been sustaining drone and missile attacks across the region and maintaining a blockade of Hormuz. Despite this, Trump reiterated that Iran has been militarily defeated, a claim he has been making since the early days of the war.Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has called for 'new arrangements' to manage the waterway after the war, ensuring safe passage for ships and protecting Iran's interests. The White House has also indicated that Trump is considering asking Arab countries to pay for Washington's expenses in its war on Iran.