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The World Bank's Economic Warning The conflict in the Middle East is set to bring global economic growth to its slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has warned. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, published on Thursday, the Washington-based institution cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5 percent from the 2.9 percent it had predicted in January, citing surging energy prices, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. Global Economic Impact The report highlights the significant economic costs of the conflict, which is at risk of flaring up again, as the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is tested on both sides. The analysis warns that the outlook could decline further if supply disruptions worsen. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital passageway for oil and gas transit – in response to the hostilities launched by the US and Israel has put huge stress upon global energy and other supply chains. Economic Forecasts The World Bank estimates that Brent crude prices — the international oil benchmark — will average $94 a barrel this year, 36 percent above last year’s average. Fertiliser prices are forecast to increase significantly this year, with knock-on effects for food prices. Overall, the closure of the strategic waterway will help to push global inflation to 4 percent this year, a substantial increase from last year’s rate of 3.3 percent. However, the World Bank cautions that global growth could plummet to as low as 1.3 percent this year, should energy supply disruptions worsen, with inflation pushing to 4.4 percent. Developing Countries' Impact The World Bank report also cautions that developing countries are on the front line of the potential impact. In its report, the institution has downgraded its growth forecasts for two-thirds of countries since January. Global growth is expected to improve to 2.8 percent in 2027, but will remain 0.4 percentage points below the average during the 2010s, during which the world economy was recovering from the global financial crisis. World Bank's Response “Developing countries have faced a series of challenges over the last decade,” said Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank Group. “The impact differs by country, but the basic test is the same: protect people and preserve stability today, without giving up on growth and jobs tomorrow.” The World Bank is pledging to assist any developing country experiencing the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict. The organisation says it has set aside up to $60bn to help. It added that if the conflict persists, it can increase its support to $100bn.

The Lead The United States has levied additional sanctions against Cuba, targeting the Caribbean island's state-owned oil and gas company, Union Cuba-Petroleo. This move is part of the Trump administration's ongoing efforts to pressure Cuba's communist government. The Event Details On Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement describing Union Cuba-Petroleo as a tool for Cuba's "repressive security apparatus". Rubio criticized the Castro family, whose members governed Cuba for decades, for profiting from the country's oil while ordinary Cubans face fuel shortages and blackouts. The sanctions freeze any US-based assets Union Cuba-Petroleo may have. They also bar any entity with operations in the US from doing business with the company. The Data Analysis Cuba is heavily reliant on oil imports to power its ageing electricity grid and daily necessities. As of 2023, the International Energy Agency estimates that Cuba produces only 40% of the oil it uses, with the rest coming from abroad. However, that trade has significantly decreased since late January, with only a single Russian oil tanker reaching Cuba. The Impact Analysis The sanctions are expected to heighten Cuba's energy crisis, which has already led to: Increased frequency of power outages. Shortages of essential goods. Dire consequences for everyday Cubans, with children dying due to lack of access to essential medical supplies and medicines. The Prediction The Trump administration's actions suggest a willingness to take further measures to force regime change in Cuba. With ongoing talks between officials on both sides, it remains to be seen how far the US will go to achieve its goals. The situation is likely to continue impacting Cuba's economy and the lives of its citizens.

The Lead A Ukrainian drone attack on a sea terminal in southern Russia has killed one person, according to Russian authorities, the latest in a flurry of strikes hammering Russian infrastructure. Ukraine's Intensified Campaign Against Russian Energy Ukraine's SBU security service said on Saturday that one of its latest attacks targeted the Tamanneftegaz terminal in Krasnodar, describing it as 'the largest liquefied hydrocarbon transshipment complex in southern Russia'. The SBU said the strikes hit five fuel tanks and two oil loading stands, sparking fires in the area of the terminal's freight transport depot and storage facilities. The Data Analysis One person killed in the drone attack on the sea terminal Five fuel tanks and two oil loading stands hit in the attack The attack caused fires in the area of the terminal's freight transport depot and storage facilities The Impact Analysis The attack is part of an intensified Ukrainian campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, including refineries, depots and pipelines deep inside the country, which has exacted pain on the Russian economy more than four years into the war. The Prediction Ukraine's SBU pledged to keep targeting Russia's oil and gas sector, calling it 'a source of funding for the war against Ukraine'. 'Oil revenues are turned into missiles, drones, and ammunition used to attack Ukrainian cities,' said the SBU. 'Therefore, the SBU will continue systematically depriving the Russian war machine of resources to wage war.'

Donald Trump is celebrating his 80th birthday with an unprecedented UFC event on the White House South Lawn, turning the sport into a political showcase.White House Hosts First‑Ever UFC Octagon for Trump’s 80th BirthdayThe Ultimate Fighting Championship will stage 14 mixed‑martial‑arts bouts inside a custom octagon built on the South Lawn. The invitation‑only audience is limited to roughly 4,000 guests, and the event coincides with the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.Numbers Behind the Spectacle: Attendance, Viewership, and Costs14 fighters will compete, including two title fights.Average UFC broadcasts attract 300,000–2,000,000 viewers, according to BetMGM.Poll data from Reuters‑Ipsos shows only 16% of Americans deem the event appropriate.The administration reports spending over $60 mn on permits and logistics, involving seven federal agencies.Political Calculus: How the UFC Show Serves Trump’s Electoral StrategyExperts say the event is designed to mobilise a demographic that traditionally skews apolitical: young, male viewers. Joe Rogan, a vocal Trump supporter, will commentate, while UFC President Dana White and Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed a “sports diplomacy” memorandum to promote the brand as a symbol of American strength.Critics argue the spectacle highlights class disparity, especially as the nation faces high gas prices and an ongoing US‑Israeli‑Iran conflict. A lawsuit alleging improper federal permitting has been filed, though the administration maintains the event complies with regulations.What the Octagon Could Signal for Future Campaigns and U.S. Sports DiplomacyIf the event garners positive media coverage, it may become a template for future political outreach through high‑impact sports events. Conversely, low public approval could force the administration to recalibrate its use of spectacle in political messaging.Analysts will watch whether the UFC partnership expands into broader diplomatic initiatives or retreats amid growing scrutiny over the blending of entertainment, politics, and foreign policy.

The Continuing Gaza Crisis Despite CeasefireIsraeli forces have carried out deadly attacks in Gaza, including a drone strike in the Bureij refugee camp that killed one person and injured two others, as casualties continue to mount in the enclave despite a "ceasefire" declared months ago. The Palestinian Information Center identified the victim as Muawiya al-Aydi, a local municipality worker. Further north, a separate Israeli attack injured a person at a gathering in Gaza City's Tuffah neighbourhood.Escalating Violence in Refugee CampsThe attacks in Bureij camp represent a continuation of Israeli military operations in central Gaza, which is partially under Israeli military control despite the ceasefire terms. These operations have become a regular occurrence since October, when the ceasefire was technically declared. The drone strike specifically targeted the refugee camp, an area designated for displaced Palestinians, highlighting the ongoing military pressure on civilian populations.Mounting Casualties Since CeasefireAccording to Gaza's Health Ministry, at least two Palestinians have been killed and 11 injured in Israeli attacks on the enclave in the past 48 hours. The ministry reported that 983 people have been killed and 3,122 injured in Israeli attacks since the ceasefire was declared. These figures demonstrate that the ceasefire has not resulted in a cessation of violence, with Palestinians continuing to suffer casualties at a significant rate.International Implications of Ceasefire ViolationsHamas has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement through continued attacks and by shifting the so-called "Yellow Line" that demarcates Israeli-controlled areas in Gaza. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem stated that "Israeli actions reflect its unwillingness to implement the ceasefire agreement and aim to blow up the negotiation track and thwart the efforts being made, while continuing escalation to serve political and electoral considerations." These violations raise questions about the viability of the ceasefire agreement and the international community's ability to enforce it.West Bank Violence EscalatesThe violence extends beyond Gaza to the occupied West Bank, where Israeli troops have conducted near-daily operations since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. On Saturday, Israeli forces deployed stun grenades and tear gas during raids near Bethlehem, causing numerous injuries. A disabled Palestinian man was shot and injured in the town of Duma, near Hebron, with conflicting reports about whether Israeli forces or a settler were responsible. Additionally, Israeli settlers attacked Palestinians and vandalized property near Bethlehem, including assaulting electrical workers and stealing water pipes.Future Outlook for Peace EffortsThe continued violence despite the ceasefire declaration suggests that the underlying tensions and conflicts remain unresolved. With casualties mounting and the humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorating, international diplomatic efforts may intensify to enforce the ceasefire terms. However, the apparent unwillingness of both sides to fully adhere to the agreement, coupled with political considerations on the Israeli side, indicates that the path to a sustainable peace remains challenging. The situation in both Gaza and the West Bank is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with potential for further escalation depending on political developments and international intervention.

The Monaco Timekeeping Fallout Formula One's Barcelona qualifying session takes place under a dark cloud of controversy following FIA's admission of a significant timekeeping blunder during the Monaco Grand Prix. The error resulted in incorrect pit-lane speeding penalties for multiple drivers, with Mercedes' George Russell suffering the most detrimental consequences as he was forced to complete a drive-through penalty instead of a five-second stop, ultimately dropping him out of the points. The Technical Error and Its Consequences The FIA acknowledged they were measuring the wrong distance when enforcing pit-lane speed limits, incorrectly penalizing several drivers—including Lewis Hamilton—for exceeding the speed limit by less than 0.1km/h. Alpine successfully appealed Pierre Gasly's demotion from third to seventh place, exposing Formula One's own error in the process. However, the Mercedes team compounded the FIA's mistake by failing to have Russell serve his five-second penalty when he pitted again, resulting in a more severe drive-through penalty that cost him dearly in the championship standings. Championship Implications The penalties have reshaped the championship landscape, with Russell now 68 points behind his youthful teammate and just two points behind Hamilton. The error has particularly affected Mercedes, who were already dealing with the fallout from their strategic blunder. Meanwhile, teams who benefited from Gasly's initial demotion are now unhappy with his reinstatement, with Red Bull and McLaren lodging intent to appeal over the loss of podium finishes for their respective drivers. Regulatory Uncertainty The controversy has exposed deeper issues within F1's regulatory framework, coming at a time when the sport was attempting to restore harmony through agreed modifications to the balance between petrol and battery for future seasons. These changes were meant to appease critics led by Max Verstappen regarding current regulations that prevent drivers from going flat-out and contributed to safety concerns highlighted by Oliver Bearman's crash in Miami. Appeals Process and Resolution Timeline The teams have 96 hours to convert their intent to appeal into formal appeals, meaning a resolution is expected by Tuesday at the latest. The FIA's statute of limitations on race matters has prevented some teams from appealing, leaving a complex legal situation that has left multiple parties dissatisfied. The outcome of these appeals could have significant implications for the championship standings and the credibility of F1's regulatory processes.

Qatar and Switzerland meet in the opening Group B fixture of the FIFA World Cup 2026 on Saturday at 12 pm local time (19:00 GMT) in San Francisco. The match carries extra weight for Qatar, who aim to secure their first World Cup points after a win‑less home tournament in 2022, while Switzerland target their best-ever performance on the world stage. Opening Clash in San Francisco: Match Details and Expected Lineups Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, San Francisco, US Date & Time: Saturday, 12 pm local (19:00 GMT) Qatar Coach: Julen Lopetegui – likely to start a 4‑3‑3 with Edmilson Junior, Akram Afif and Yusuf Abdurisag up front. Switzerland Coach: Murat Yakin – expected 4‑2‑3‑1 featuring Granit Xhaka, Remo Freuler and a forward line of Ruben Vargas, Fabian Rieder, Dan Ndoye, Zeki Amdouni. Numbers on the Table: Recent Form and Qualification Stats Qatar Form (last 5): D‑L‑L‑D‑L Switzerland Form (last 5): D‑W‑D‑L‑D Qualification: Qatar qualified by beating the United Arab Emirates 2‑1 in October 2025 under Lopetegui. Historical Head‑to‑Head: One meeting – Qatar won 1‑0 in a 2018 friendly (Akram Afif, 88’). Implications for Group B and the Wider Tournament The result will shape the early dynamics of Group B, which also contains Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina. A win for Qatar would give them a rare opening point and boost confidence after a disappointing 2022 campaign. Switzerland, unbeaten in qualification and conceding only two goals, view the match as a platform to break their pattern of round‑of‑16 exits and push for a quarter‑final berth. Looking Ahead: Potential Scenarios After the Opener Qatar Victory: Qatar tops the group early, forcing Canada and Bosnia into a race for the second spot. Swiss Victory: Switzerland gains momentum, positioning themselves as early favorites to advance. Draw: Both teams remain in contention, with goal difference likely to become a decisive factor. Regardless of the outcome, the match will set the tone for the rest of the group stage and could influence tactical approaches for the remaining fixtures.

The Timeless Allure of Boogie Nights Masculinity was never more fragile than in Paul Thomas Anderson’s picaresque porn comedy from 1997, inspired by the life and times of 70s/80s LA adult movie star John Holmes. It’s a film that delivers the era’s jukebox slams on the soundtrack, though oddly not the Heatwave classic that provides the title. But Boogie Nights gives the male-gaze world of porn a taste of its own phallocentric medicine. How does it feel for a guy to be known and valued for just one thing, and then mocked and even hated when that one thing shrivels? The Fragile Hero of Porn What happens, in fact, is that our detumescent hero symbolically turns to the more reliably priapic world of guns and crime, although not without first embarrassingly trying to make it as a singer. (David Foster Wallace, in his 1998 essay Big Red Son, about the Adult Movie awards in Las Vegas, compares the event’s musical interludes to the ghastly screeching in Boogie Nights.) Twenty-six-year-old Mark Wahlberg plays handsome young teen Eddie, or Dirk Diggler, as he is later professionally to style himself who, while working behind the bar in a nightclub in California’s San Fernando Valley in 1977 (where he supplements his income by jerking off in the kitchens at the bidding of paying voyeur customers) he meets silver-fox porn impresario Jack Horner, played with leathery assurance and style by Burt Reynolds. A World of Excess and Addiction With his industry sixth-sense for untutored talent, Jack picks up on what a later generation would call Eddie’s BDE; he offers him a job on his latest dirty movie, where Eddie morphs into “Dirk”, wowing colleagues with his size, stamina and quick turnaround time. Dirk gets to know his supportive new industry family. These include Julianne Moore, who here establishes the sexy-tragic drama queen persona that has surfaced so often in her career. She is Maggie, a divorced mother and elder stateswoman of porn, clenched with the secret anguish of not seeing her child and displacing that maternal longing on to her hardcore scenes with Dirk. Nicole Ari Parker is Becky and Heather Graham is Brandy, known as “Rollergirl”, for never removing her roller skates; her awful destiny is to be forced to play a scene with a guy who once mocked her in high school. The Influence of Cinema Legends Behind or above or within all of this is cocaine, a vast omnipresent glittering mountain of white powder, powering the rush behind the success-surge in Dirk’s career montage. Porn and coke merge into a single entity – a compulsive, addictive demon which destroys Dirk’s endowment. Then there is the industry’s great crisis. Jack is an artist of adult entertainment, a celluloid purist who resents the new world of videotape arriving like the talkies in Singin’ in the Rain; at the end, there’s a premonition of homemade gonzo content, though that was hardly more than a rumour in 1997. A Lasting Cinematic Experience As a film, Boogie Nights is clearly influenced by Scorsese: not just the epic rise-and-fall trajectory of GoodFellas but in Dirk running his lines in front of the mirror like Jake LaMotta. There is also something of Tarantino in the late-night store stick-up that leaves Buck covered with blood and with a brown paper-bag full of cash. Yet at this stage Anderson arguably didn’t have Scorsese’s gift for making his dramas about something more than themselves.

The Knicks' Thrilling Victory After the New York Knicks' furious comeback over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night, the last place anyone in the city wanted to be was at home. Taylor Swift and Larry David were among the celebrities who lingered at Madison Square Garden after the final buzzer sounded on the 107-106 victory as Frank Sinatra's New York, New York washed over the arena. Celebrations Erupt Across the City No city advocates for its own self-importance quite like New York – seat of global finance, capital of media, centre of the universe. On Wednesday, it did not have to. Not after OG Anunoby tipped in a last-gasp shot with 1.2 seconds left to give the Knicks the lead for good. The play, already being called “the other Hand of God” in some corners of the city, did not just seal the largest ever comeback in the NBA playoffs, put New York 3-1 up in the best-of-seven series and move them within reach of their first championship in 53 years. The Data Behind the Frenzy 107-106: The Knicks' victory margin 1.2 seconds: The time left on the clock when Anunoby made the winning shot 3-1: The Knicks' lead in the best-of-seven series The Impact on the City Online, a photo of a plane full of passengers all locked into the game – save for one guy streaming Avatar – made the rounds. And a clip from an NBA finals watch party in Irvine, California, showed members of the US men’s national soccer team, interrupting their preparation for the World Cup, erupt when Anunoby’s shot went in. Couples with longstanding wedding plans for this weekend are apparently both anticipating and dreading Saturday’s Game 5, the real social event of the season. The Future Outlook The Knicks are easy to root for. Jalen Brunson, a 6ft 2in everyman, takes the fight to the 7ft 4in Spurs phenomenon Victor Wembanyama. Brunson was teammates with fellow Knicks Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges on a college dynasty at Villanova, Pennsylvania. Brunson’s father, Rick, is an ex-Knicks reserve turned assistant coach.