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The recent conflict between the US and Iran has resulted in a devastating war with no winners. Despite Donald Trump's claims of victory, the two-week ceasefire announced is not a triumph, and the war may not be over. The Iranian regime has not undergone regime change, and less experienced but more hardline figures are now in charge.The conflict has killed thousands in the region, including children, and left many more exhausted, terrified, and traumatized. The war has also spooked markets, raised prices at home, and shown signs of fracturing Trump's Maga base. The US has squandered tens of billions of dollars, burned through its interceptors, and torched relations with allies.Israel has achieved none of its stated aims and is left with a weaker but less predictable adversary. The Iranian regime can count survival as a kind of success, but senior leaders are dead, its economy is on its knees, and essential infrastructure has been smashed. The people are likely to face yet greater repression.The war has destabilized the region and normalized talk of war crimes, further trashing the idea of a rules-based order. Restrictions on transit will continue to damage humanitarian aid operations and raise prices worldwide, hitting the poorest hardest.The only real winners are arms manufacturers, Russia, and arguably China, at least for now. This is a strategic defeat for the US that will resound for decades, and a clear sign of its systemic failures.

At a Pentagon briefing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that Iran’s request for a temporary cease‑fire was a direct result of the United States’ intensive air campaign, which he described as having reduced Iran’s weapons factories to rubble and rendered its military ineffective for years to come. Hegseth, standing beside Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine, said the final wave of strikes before President Donald Trump announced a two‑week pause had completely destroyed Iran’s defense industrial base. While Iran can still fire from existing stockpiles, it can no longer replace lost munitions, according to the secretary. President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to suspend hostilities less than two hours before his self‑imposed deadline to “decimate the entirety of Iranian civilization.” The decision followed a last‑minute diplomatic push by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Gen Asim Munir. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran’s acceptance of the pause, and the country’s supreme national security council announced it would send a delegation to Islamabad for formal talks starting Friday. Both sides claimed victory: Iran’s security council said it had achieved “nearly all the objectives of the war,” while the United States highlighted the crippling of Iran’s military capabilities. The cease‑fire ends a conflict that began on 28 February, when the U.S. and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes in a 12‑hour window against Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and leadership. The opening day saw the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei named successor on 8 March. Hegseth warned that the United States had prepared additional strikes on Iran’s power plants, bridges and energy infrastructure—targets he said Iran could not defend or rebuild for decades—if Tehran had refused the pause. According to Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine, 13 U.S. service members were killed during the fighting. Total casualties across the region exceed 5,000, including over 1,600 Iranian civilians and at least 1,497 deaths in Lebanon. By the sixth day of the war, U.S. military spending had reached roughly $12.7 billion, with a pending supplemental request of $200 billion before Congress. The future of a lasting settlement remains uncertain. Trump later announced that Iran would hand over its enriched uranium and cease all enrichment activities, while Iran’s supreme national security council released a 10‑point counter‑proposal that explicitly demands the right to continue enrichment. Disagreements also persist over the cease‑fire’s scope. Israel maintains that the pause does not apply to Lebanon, where ground and air campaigns are at their most intense since Israel’s northern invasion. Both Pakistan and Iran, however, have stated that Lebanon is included in the cease‑fire. Subsequent reports indicated Iranian missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, as well as strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure on Lavan Island. Iran’s supreme national security council warned that its forces remain on high alert, stating, “our hands are on the trigger, and any mistake by the enemy will be met with full force.” When asked about the long‑term U.S. presence in the region, Hegseth replied unequivocally: “We’re not going anywhere.”

The ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran has brought relief, but it should not be mistaken for a resolution. The conflict has caused significant damage to both countries, with Iran's military capabilities and economy suffering greatly.Despite claims of success from all sides, the reality is that no party was winning the war. President Donald Trump has framed the conflict as a military victory and a step towards regime change in Iran, but the war has proven costly and damaging to US credibility.Iran's nuclear program remains a core issue in these negotiations. Tehran will need to show a willingness to compromise, whether through downblending enriched uranium or allowing international inspectors back into the country.The wider regional dimension risks being sidelined, with Israel and Gulf states seeking assurances that they will not remain exposed to repeated pressure on their infrastructure and shipping routes.The ceasefire should be understood not as the end of the crisis but as the start of a new and uncertain phase. What emerges from Islamabad may still fall short of a durable peace, but the alternative – a return to escalation – is far worse.

The recent US-Iran ceasefire agreement has not led to a significant change in the situation for ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping analysts, there will be no 'mass exodus' of ships through the strait, despite provisions for a temporary reopening of the crucial maritime channel.The ceasefire agreement 'doesn't change the situation in the sense that Iran is still in control,' said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief at maritime data provider Lloyd's List Intelligence. 'It still requires ships to essentially seek permission, and that's the key. That means that nothing has changed – no permission, no transit.'An estimated 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the outbreak of war at the end of February, according to the UN, unable to pass through the strait to continue their journeys. The trapped vessels include oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, and cargo ships as well as six tourist cruise liners.Under Iran's 10-point ceasefire plan, the country's foreign minister said safe passage through the strait would be allowed under Iranian military management. However, analysts believe that Iran will continue to control the flow of traffic, and few expect traffic to return to normal daily averages during the two-week ceasefire.The head of the UN shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), welcomed the ceasefire and called for a safe evacuation of seafarers from the Gulf. Arsenio Dominguez, the secretary-general of the IMO, said: 'I am already working with the relevant parties to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships through the strait of Hormuz. The priority now is to ensure an evacuation that guarantees the safety of navigation.'

The recent announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US has been hailed by Donald Trump as a victorious dawn of a new era, but it is Iran that enters peace talks with the stronger hand. The Tehran regime has demonstrated its power to close the Hormuz strait and holds a stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), the original crux of the conflict with the US, Israel, and allies.Trump won instant gratification with the ceasefire, which allowed him to remain the central player in the drama and claim a few hours later to have dramatically reversed course and be “far along” along the road to an enduring Middle East peace. However, the actual ceasefire terms remain hazy with varying interpretations in circulation.Iran's 10-point plan, not Trump's 15-pointer, was referred to when welcoming the ceasefire, calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate”. The Tehran government included the right to enrich in the Farsi version of the ceasefire terms, but not in the English translation, suggesting it was put there for domestic consumption as the regime boasted victory.There seems little doubt that Iran will make the right to enrich uranium a red line at talks over a long-term settlement, as it has in all its negotiations with the west, and its possession of 440kg of HEU (enough in theory to make a dozen nuclear warheads) will be a powerful bargaining chip.

U.S. Senator JD Vance released a video appeal urging Iran to demonstrate good faith amid a fragile ceasefire. Vance emphasized that the ceasefire's stability hinges on responsible actions from all parties, warning that any deviation could jeopardize the tenuous peace. The senator’s message underscores the broader diplomatic challenges facing the region and highlights the importance of sustained commitment to de‑escalation.

UK house prices experienced a decline in March, as the housing market lost momentum due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on the economy and interest rates. Figures from Halifax showed a 0.5% dip in property prices compared to the previous month. As a result, the average price of a home slipped back below £300,000 to £299,677, after initially crossing the £300,000 milestone in January. The pace of annual property price growth also eased to 0.8%, down from 1.2% the previous month. Halifax cited uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East as a factor that has dampened the initial momentum in the market seen at the start of the year. Concerns about higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, leading to a rise in mortgage rates. Expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates several times this year have driven up the cost of fixed-rate mortgages. However, City traders adjusted their forecasts for rate rises after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire. The choice of mortgage deals has shrunk in recent weeks, with hundreds of mortgage products pulled from the market. The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate moved upwards to 5.84% by the end of March, the highest since July 2024. Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, noted that the effect on house prices will largely depend on how long-lasting these pressures prove to be and the wider implications for the economy and unemployment. She emphasized that mortgage rates are a key factor for buyers, particularly those getting on the ladder for the first time.

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to a decrease in UK interest rate hike expectations. City traders now predict only one rate rise by December, taking the Bank of England's base rate back to 4%. Previously, markets had priced in two rate hikes as tensions escalated, with Donald Trump warning of severe consequences if Iran did not comply with his demands. However, with the ceasefire in place, rate expectations have fallen, and only 32 basis points of hikes are now expected for the year, down from 62 basis points the previous day. The decline in rate expectations is linked to the significant drop in oil prices, with Brent crude down 13.3% to $94.71 a barrel. This decrease in oil prices could bring relief to UK consumers, potentially leading to lower petrol prices and easing inflationary pressures. Despite the current relief, experts caution that mortgage rates may not fall quickly. The average two-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen to 5.90%, the highest since July 2024. Analysts suggest that while the ceasefire may slow or pause mortgage rate increases, it is unlikely to trigger sharp falls. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, notes that the ceasefire brings relief for UK consumers but emphasizes that the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of England have been reduced. He adds that the 'heady days' of sustained rate cuts are unlikely to return in the short term. Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfacts, advises that while easing tensions have pushed down expectations for future interest rate rises, mortgage rates are likely to remain higher for some time yet, with lenders cautious about making sudden moves due to market volatility.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.