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The Nuclear Buildup in Eastern Europe Earlier this week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for the first time took part in the "rehearsal" of Russia's use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Between Tuesday and Thursday, he and Russian President Vladimir Putin presided over joint military drills covering the area from Eastern Europe to the Pacific, involving hundreds of Russian missile launchers, warplanes, warships and nuclear submarines. "We threaten absolutely no one," said Lukashenko, who has helmed Belarus since 1994. "But we have such weapons, and we're ready in every possible way to defend our common fatherland from [the western Belarusian city of] Brest to [Russia's Pacific port of] Vladivostok." Russia's Nuclear Drills and Capabilities "It's important to further boost the level of readiness of strategic and tactical nuclear forces," Putin stated during the exercises. Both leaders ordered the launch of the intercontinental, hypersonic Yars missile capable of carrying three independently targetable nuclear missiles, which flew 5,750km (3,573 miles) from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwestern Russia to the Pacific Kamchatka Peninsula in less than 20 minutes. As part of the drills, Moscow supplied Minsk with modified Su-25 fighter jets and Iskander-M ballistic missiles with a range of up to 500km (310 miles). Nuclear weapons are reportedly stored at the Asipovichi military range, less than 200km (124 miles) north of the Ukrainian border. Geopolitical Implications The drills come amid heightened tensions between Russia and NATO. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that if Moscow uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the alliance's response would be "devastating." The exercises are clearly timed to a summit of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden's Helsingborg, a venue symbolic as Sweden joined the alliance after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "The events develop suddenly, seemingly without any external reasons," noted Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany's Bremen University. "Something big is taking place, something that will be significant for international politics in general, and for mass media, including the very supply of nuclear arms." Belarus's Calculus While Belarus enjoys economic preferences and cheap hydrocarbons from Russia, Lukashenko has resisted Putin's attempts to merge Belarus with Russia as part of "union state" deals dating back to the 1990s. In recent months, ties between Belarus and the United States have also warmed, with Lukashenko joining United States President Donald Trump's Board of Peace. "We're not going to get sucked into the war in Ukraine. There's no need for it, neither civil nor military," Lukashenko stated, signaling his readiness to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. "If [Zelenskyy] wants to discuss something, seek advice, or anything else, he's welcome. I'm ready to meet him anywhere in Ukraine or Belarus." Future Scenarios Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has warned that the drills may be part of Moscow's preparations to launch a new offensive against northern Ukraine and Kyiv after Russian troops failed to capture sizeable areas in eastern and southern Ukraine this year. However, the current concentration of Russian forces in Belarus is "insufficient" for a new offensive, according to the head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank. "Attacking Ukraine with Belarusian forces alone may end very badly for Lukashenko," said Volodymyr Fesenko. "For him, involving Belarus in the war is too big a risk." Despite this, analysts acknowledge that "unfortunately, there is such a risk" of Belarus becoming more directly involved in the conflict, though most believe Lukashenko will avoid such a development.

President Donald Trump used his social‑media platform on Thursday to declare that the United States will send an extra 5,000 troops to Poland, a move that overturns a prior decision to reduce the American footprint in Europe. Trump’s Surprise Troop Deployment to Poland The announcement was framed as a personal endorsement of Poland’s newly elected president, Karol Nawrocki, whom Trump praised for his “friendship” and “shared security vision.” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski welcomed the decision, saying it would keep the U.S. presence “more or less at previous levels.” Details of the 5,000‑Soldier Reinforcement Date of announcement: Thursday, 22 May 2026 Units involved: Not specified; Pentagon has not clarified whether the troops are redeployed from Germany or newly assigned. Previous plan: A scheduled deployment of 4,000 troops was scrapped a week earlier; an earlier proposal to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany was also announced. Polish reaction: President Nawrocki and Foreign Minister Sikorski praised the move as a sign of “good alliances based on cooperation, mutual respect, and shared security.” Numbers Behind the Move: Troop Levels and Funding While the exact financial outlay was not disclosed, Warsaw traditionally contributes a significant share of the cost for U.S. forces on its soil. Analysts note that maintaining an additional 5,000 troops could increase Poland’s annual contribution by several hundred million dollars, depending on the force composition. Current U.S. troop presence in Poland: Approximately 4,000–5,000 personnel. Potential total after deployment: Up to 10,000 U.S. soldiers. Comparison with Germany: The Pentagon recently announced a reduction of combat brigades in Europe from four to three, signaling a broader re‑balancing of forces. Strategic Ripple Effects Across NATO The abrupt policy shift fuels uncertainty among NATO allies that have already expressed frustration with Trump’s “America First” stance, especially his criticism of European defence spending and the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran. NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte welcomed the Polish reinforcement but warned Europe must become less dependent on U.S. troops. Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard described the situation as “confusing” for both allies and U.S. officials. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is slated to discuss NATO burden‑sharing at the upcoming foreign‑ministers meeting. European concerns now extend to other U.S. statements, such as threats to annex Greenland, further straining alliance cohesion. What Comes Next for Transatlantic Defense Analysts predict a short‑term scramble within NATO to clarify the composition and timeline of the Polish deployment. Potential scenarios include: Redeployment of troops from Germany to Poland, solidifying a forward‑focused posture on the Eastern flank. Gradual scaling back of U.S. forces in Central Europe, paired with increased European defence investments. Intensified diplomatic efforts by the Pentagon and State Department to reassure allies ahead of the NATO foreign‑ministers summit. In the coming weeks, the alliance’s ability to present a unified response to Russian aggression in Ukraine will hinge on how quickly Washington can translate the announced numbers into a clear, predictable force structure.

The Lead: US-Cuba Relations Reach Critical PointUnited States President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have issued new threats of military action against Cuba, escalating tensions between the two nations. The Trump administration, with Cuban-American Rubio at the forefront, has been increasing pressure on the communist-led island in what appears to be an attempt to institute "regime change," including a fuel blockade that has pushed the Cuban economy toward collapse.The Escalation: Military Buildup and Legal ActionsThe push against Cuba has accelerated in recent days, with the US indicting Cuba's former President Raul Castro and gathering military forces in the Caribbean. Since returning to office, Trump has implemented numerous sanctions against Cuba, including a fuel blockade that has caused blackouts and protests across the island.On Thursday, Adys Lastres Morera – sister of a high-ranking executive of the Grupo de Administracion Empresarial SA (GAESA) conglomerate, controlled by Cuba's military – was arrested. The US military has also announced that several navy ships, including an aircraft carrier, have arrived in the Caribbean to participate in maritime exercises with partners in Latin America.The Rationale: National Security ConcernsRubio told reporters that Cuba has been a national security threat for years due to its ties with US adversaries Russia and China. Rejecting suggestions of "nation building," Rubio emphasized that the issue is one of "national security." While stating that a negotiated agreement is the US "preference," he indicated that the path of diplomacy with Cuba is "not high.""Their economic system doesn't work. It's broken, and you can't fix it with the current political system that's in place," Rubio said. He added that Cuba has historically "bought time and waited out" previous administrations, but "they're not going to be able to wait us out or buy time. We're very serious, we're very focused."The Presidential Stance: Trump's Personal CommitmentPresident Donald Trump separately told reporters that US presidents have considered intervening in Cuba for decades, but that he appears likely to be "the one that does it." Trump expressed willingness to take action, stating he would be "happy" to intervene militarily in Cuba if necessary.International Response: Condemnation and SupportIn response to the US actions, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez criticized Rubio for falsely labeling Cuba a threat. "The US secretary of state lies once again to instigate a military aggression that would provoke the shedding of Cuban and American blood," Rodriguez said.Both China and Russia have criticized the US pressure on Cuba. China stated it "firmly supports" Cuba and urged the US to de-escalate tensions and "stop threatening force." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented that "under no circumstances should such methods – which border on violence – be used against either former or current heads of state."Historical Context: The Venezuela PrecedentAnalysts suggest that Trump and Rubio may be considering a similar approach in Cuba to the regime change operation conducted in Venezuela earlier in 2026. In January, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were kidnapped in a military operation and brought to the US, where Maduro was charged with "narcoterrorism."Future Outlook: Aid Offers and Potential EscalationRubio noted that Cuba had tentatively accepted an offer of $100 million in aid in return for reforms, though it remains unclear if the US would accept Cuba's terms, as Washington insists on circumventing the military-backed conglomerate GAESA. The situation remains volatile, with both sides digging in their positions as the US continues its military buildup in the region.

Lead: War Day 84 Marks a Shift Toward DiplomacyThe conflict between Iran and the United States entered its 84th day with renewed diplomatic activity. Both sides are exchanging draft proposals, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted "some good signs" while President Donald Trump warned of "very drastic" action if Tehran refuses to relinquish its uranium stockpiles.Mediated Negotiations Gain MomentumPakistani officials are conducting "intense mediation activity" in Tehran, according to Al Jazeera correspondent Almigdad Alruhaid. Senior Iranian sources say negotiators are close to a draft framework, though others caution that a final agreement remains premature.Pakistani mediation is accelerating to prevent further escalation.US‑Iran red‑line shift: Cato Institute senior fellow Doug Bandow stresses the need for both parties to move beyond entrenched nuclear red lines.Key Figures and Financial Stakes7,200 civilians rescued from rubble by the Iranian Red Crescent.More than two dozen MQ‑9 Reaper drones destroyed, losses estimated at $1 bn (≈20% of pre‑war inventory).At least 42 US aircraft damaged or destroyed, total losses near $2.6 bn.US has paused a $14 bn arms sale to Taiwan to preserve munitions for the Iran campaign.Regional and Military ImplicationsCentcom reports the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group remains at "peak readiness" in the Arabian Sea, signaling continued pressure despite diplomatic overtures. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and new US sanctions on Hezbollah allies heighten the risk of a broader regional flare‑up.Outlook for a Potential DealIf the current draft proposals survive scrutiny, a diplomatic settlement could emerge within weeks, easing military pressure and opening pathways for humanitarian aid. However, the dual track of high‑cost equipment losses and political warnings from both Washington and Tehran suggests that any agreement will require substantial concessions on nuclear constraints and future US military commitments in the region.

The LeadThe Guardian's Politics Weekly podcast has brought attention to allegations of a new financial arrangement involving former President Donald Trump, which critics are calling a "slush fund" designed to benefit his associates and allies.The Financial Arrangement DetailsThe podcast examines the structure and purpose of this fund, which has emerged as a subject of political controversy. While specific details about the fund's operations remain limited, the discussion centers on how such arrangements might influence political processes and donor relationships.The Political Impact AnalysisThis development comes at a time when political financing and ethics are under increased scrutiny. The alleged slush fund could potentially reshape perceptions of Trump's political operation and influence fundraising strategies for upcoming elections.The Future OutlookPolitical observers are watching closely to see how this story develops and whether it will have any lasting impact on Trump's political standing or the broader conversation about campaign finance reform in the United States.Listen to the full episode on Politics Weekly YouTube channelCheck out The Guardian's US podcast: Stateside with Kai and CarterSend questions and feedback to [email protected] The Guardian at theguardian.com/politicspodus

The US-Taiwan Arms Sale Pause A top official in the United States military has said Washington is pausing a $14bn arms sale to Taiwan to conserve munitions for its war on Iran. Details of the Pause Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao provided the update to lawmakers during a Senate hearing on Thursday, a week after the weapons sale took centre stage in talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. Cao told the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense that the US is pausing the sale to ensure it has enough munitions for its potential conflict with Iran. The decision to move forward with the sale would be made by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Impact on Taiwan's Defense Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai told reporters on Friday that Taiwan would continue to pursue arms purchases, according to Taiwanese news outlet FTV News. William Yang, senior analyst for northeast Asia at the Crisis Group, said in a social media post that the pause will “exacerbate anxiety and scepticism about US support in Taiwan and make it difficult for the Taiwanese government to request additional defence budget for the foreseeable future”. The Iran Conflict and US Military Preparedness The war has been paused since the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on April 8, but the sides have yet to reach a permanent peace deal. “Right now, we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury – which we have plenty,” Cao said. Future Outlook Trump, who has confirmed that he discussed the arms sale with Xi, said last week in an interview with Fox News that he “may” or “may not” approve the package. Trump has also suggested that the package could be used as a “negotiating chip” – despite a decades-old precedent against consulting with Beijing on arms sales.

The LeadGreenlanders have organized demonstrations against the opening of a new US consulate in Nuuk, the capital of the autonomous Danish territory. The protests highlight growing tensions over foreign presence in the strategically located Arctic island.The Opening of a New Diplomatic MissionThe United States recently established a new consulate in Nuuk, signaling increased diplomatic engagement with Greenland. This move comes amid heightened geopolitical interest in the Arctic region, particularly as ice melt opens new shipping routes and potential resource extraction opportunities. Greenland, while autonomous, remains under Danish sovereignty, though has been seeking greater international recognition and independence.Geopolitical Implications in the ArcticThe protest movement reflects broader concerns about foreign influence in Greenland. The island has become a focal point in strategic competition between global powers, particularly between the United States, China, and Russia. Greenland's strategic location and untapped natural resources make it a valuable asset in the evolving Arctic geopolitics. The demonstrations underscore the sensitivity of foreign diplomatic presence in the territory.Future of Greenland's International RelationsAs Greenland continues to navigate its relationship with Denmark while engaging with other international actors, the protest against the US consulate may signal a shift in how the territory approaches foreign engagement. Greenlanders appear increasingly wary of foreign powers viewing their homeland solely through a strategic lens rather than recognizing their unique cultural and political aspirations. The outcome of this diplomatic standoff could shape Greenland's international relations for years to come.

The US Stance on Sanctions Against Francesca Albanese The United States has denied that the cancellation of sanctions against Francesca Albanese, the United Nations special rapporteur for the Palestinian territory, constitutes a change in the government’s policy. Court Ruling Leads to Sanctions Removal On Thursday, the Department of State clarified that the administration of President Donald Trump only removed Albanese from a sanctions list due to a recent court ruling. Intention to Reimpose Sanctions “The Government has appealed the court’s order,” the State Department added in its statement, before reaffirming its intention to return Albanese to the list of Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs). The US government intends to restore Ms Albanese’s name to the SDN List if the DC Circuit stays or overturns the court order. Background on Sanctions Against Albanese The Trump administration targeted Albanese with sanctions in July 2025, after she recommended that the International Criminal Court (ICC) issue arrest warrants for Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Impact of Sanctions on Albanese Albanese, a human rights expert, has been outspoken in her criticism of Israeli policies towards Palestinians, and she has issued reports documenting Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza. The Palestinian death toll in the narrow territory is estimated to exceed 75,000. Future Outlook While Albanese is Italian, her daughter is a US citizen, and she has assets in the country. In February, her family filed a civil complaint in a US federal court in Washington, DC, seeking to overturn the sanctions as a violation of Albanese’s constitutional rights, including the right to free speech.

The Diplomatic Warning The high representative overseeing the United States-founded Board of Peace for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, has warned that the deteriorating status quo in the devastated Palestinian enclave risks becoming "permanent." Speaking to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Mladenov presented a roadmap detailing obligations for Israel and Hamas to implement a permanent ceasefire. "Let me say this clearly: the implementation cannot advance through Palestinian obligations alone," Mladenov said, speaking via video call. "The continued killings and Israeli restrictions affecting humanitarian flows are not abstract issues." He urged the UNSC to use "every means at its disposal" to press Hamas to disarm, while also saying that Israel must uphold its commitment under a ceasefire agreed in October. The Humanitarian Crisis The war that Israel launched following the October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel by Hamas and other armed Palestinian groups was halted by a ceasefire in October 2025. More than 72,775 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict. But the Israeli military maintains a strict security regime, and many hundreds more have been killed in the past seven months. Conflict monitors warn that since the ceasefire in the US-Israel war on Iran was struck last month, Israeli bombardment of Gaza has accelerated. Violent raids by settlers and the military in the occupied West Bank have also been increasing. On Thursday, an Israeli drone attack killed a 26-year-old in Gaza's al-Mahatta area, east of Deir el-Balah city, according to Wafa news agency. The Stalled Peace Process In January, the US announced that the Gaza "ceasefire" was moving to phase two, which is supposed to focus on Hamas's disarmament, long-term governance and the establishment of a panel of Palestinian technocrats to lead post-war Gaza. It also calls for the gradual retreat of the Israeli army, which still controls more than 50 percent of the Palestinian territory, and the deployment of an international stabilizing force. But with the war in Iran drawing the world's attention amid a global energy crisis, the transition to the second phase has been stalled for weeks. Mladenov, a veteran Bulgarian diplomat, warned of the risks of inaction by both parties. The Regional Implications "The risk is that the deteriorating status quo becomes permanent: a divided Gaza, Hamas holding military and administrative control over two million people across less than half the territory," Mladenov said. "Those people are likely to remain trapped in the rubble, dependent on aid with no meaningful reconstruction, because reconstruction financing will not follow where weapons have not been laid down." "And the result? Another generation growing up in tents in fear, with despair as the most rational thing for them to feel." This, he said, is a scenario that Israelis, Palestinians and the region "should all fear and mobilize to avoid."