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Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

Iranian government supporters have taken to the streets to celebrate the anniversary of the 1979 referendum that solidified the Islamic Republic's hold on power. The celebrations come as the United States and Israel continue their attacks on the country.President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi joined pro-establishment rallies in Tehran, marking Islamic Republic Day with 98.2 percent of the popular vote in favor of the Islamic Republic in 1979.The US and Israel targeted Iran's top steel manufacturing companies, threatening thousands of jobs and exacerbating economic hardship under harsh US sanctions. Other attacks hit civilian nuclear sites, a university, and military installations.The Iranian state remains defiant, with authorities saying their defenses are prepared for potential US military action. Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, head of the Iranian army's research center, warned of 'heavy casualties' in response to any aggression.Iranians face an unprecedented near-total internet shutdown lasting over a month, creating a black market for VPN access and raising concerns about the future.The authorities have issued calls to action for people to participate in group marches while waving flags, with religious singers and eulogists performing religious songs drawing on Shia Islam's influence.

Turkiye's football team has finally qualified for the World Cup after a 24-year wait, marking a significant milestone for the nation's football history. The team's 1-0 playoff win against Kosovo on Tuesday secured their spot in the 2026 World Cup, sparking wild celebrations among players and fans. The winning goal was scored by Kerem Akturkoglu in the 53rd minute, with Kenan Yildiz and Orkun Kokcu playing crucial roles in setting up the goal. This victory has brought immense joy to Turkish fans, with many taking to the streets to celebrate, waving flags and honking cars. Coach Vincenzo Montella expressed his pride and gratitude towards the players, stating, 'I am incredibly proud... I wouldn’t change my players for a thing. Anyone who does this job dreams of the World Cup.' Montella's sentiments were echoed by Kerem Akturkoglu, who said, 'We always dreamed of moments like this... Now we will give the next generation something to dream about at the 2026 World Cup.' Turkiye will be part of Group D in the World Cup, alongside Australia, Paraguay, and cohosts the United States. This will be Turkiye's third World Cup appearance, following their previous participations in 1954 and 2002, where they achieved a notable third-place finish.

Chicago Bears owners are flirting with a move to Hammond, Indiana, after stalled tax talks stalled their Arlington Heights stadium plan. The prospect has ignited outrage from fans, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and even WWE star CM Punk, who called the maneuver “straight greed.” In response, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Greg Casar introduced the Home Team Act, legislation that would require professional‑sports owners to give their host community a one‑year window to purchase the team at fair market value before any cross‑state relocation. Casar emphasized that “sports in America should be about more than making billionaire owners richer,” noting that many municipalities have already poured billions into subsidies to keep profitable franchises at home. Sanders, a lifelong Brooklyn Dodgers fan, recalled the 1957 Dodgers’ move to Los Angeles as a formative moment that shaped his anti‑corporate stance. The Home Team Act defines relocation as any move that crosses state lines or shifts a franchise to a different metropolitan area. During the mandatory year, a broad range of buyers—including private individuals, municipalities, corporations, or community‑owned entities like the Green Bay Packers—could acquire the team at market price. The Packers’ unique structure, with over 500,000 shareholders and a cap of 200,000 shares per individual, has helped keep the team in Green Bay, though it remains an outlier. Relocation threats are common across the NFL and other leagues, typically driven by owners seeking future profit rather than current revenue. The bill’s co‑sponsor, California Congresswoman Lateefah Simon, points to Oakland’s recent loss of the Warriors, Raiders, and soon the Athletics as a cautionary tale: the exodus has crippled local businesses, eliminated jobs, and eroded cultural identity. Financially, the Bears are valued at roughly $8.9 billion. Even with wealthy backers, the fiscal burden on taxpayers to retain such a franchise would be massive, making community ownership an appealing yet largely theoretical solution. Passage of the Home Team Act faces steep hurdles. It must clear both chambers of Congress and win presidential approval from an administration friendly to billionaire team owners. Practical challenges also remain, such as defining the exact moment a relocation process begins and establishing an impartial method for fair‑market valuation. Nevertheless, proponents argue that if owners placed greater value on their communities, legislation like the Home Team Act might become unnecessary. For now, the bill represents a rare legislative attempt to rebalance power between affluent franchise owners and the fans and taxpayers who support them.

The UK government's proposal to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling is unlikely to provide relief to consumers in the form of lower energy prices. Oil prices have surged to $100 a barrel following the US and Israel's attack on Iran, with potential increases to $150 a barrel due to supply issues in the Strait of Hormuz.Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative party, has introduced a plan to 'get Britain drilling' by opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. However, experts argue that this will not reduce energy bills for UK consumers. Oil and gas are sold on international markets, and prices are set globally, so there is no direct discount for UK consumers.The Conservative party has previously acknowledged this, but now suggests that tax reforms and removal of VAT on bills could deliver £200 cuts to household energy bills. The plan involves scrapping the windfall tax on North Sea producers, which has raised about £12bn so far.Critics argue that the windfall tax is essential and that removing it would not stimulate production significantly. The tax does not increase prices to consumers and has the support of the International Energy Agency.Analysis suggests that redirecting tax revenues from the North Sea back to consumers would have a minimal impact on bills. A study found that households would gain only about £16 a year if tax revenues from a maximally exploited North Sea were redistributed.Badenoch's claims about job creation in the North Sea are also disputed. The sector is declining, and geology, not politics, will dictate the future of North Sea oil and gas. Most of the UK's sector has already been drained, with only about 218m tonnes of oil recoverable by 2050 from existing fields.New drilling could add only 74m tonnes of oil and 1.1% to gas production, equivalent to putting off the end of the North Sea by a year or two. Job losses in the sector are a concern, with at least 70,000 jobs lost in the decade to 2024.Experts stress that renewable energy sources are a more secure and sustainable alternative. The UK should focus on creating conditions for clean energy infrastructure to attract investment and drive growth.

Oracle, a US technology company with a market value of $420bn, has begun cutting thousands of jobs as it seeks to reassure investors that its bet on AI infrastructure will pay off. The company, which has a workforce of 162,000, has reportedly let go of around 10,000 people so far.The job cuts, which were announced via email, affect various roles including senior engineers, architects, operations leaders, program managers, and technical specialists. Oracle's decision to reduce its workforce comes as it steps up spending on datacentres, key infrastructure for developing and operating AI systems, in an effort to better compete with cloud rivals such as Alphabet and Amazon.Oracle's plans include a $300bn datacentre deal with OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT. However, investors have grown concerned about the billions of dollars of expenditure attached to its plans, which includes raising $50bn in new debt. In a March filing, Oracle said it expected total costs tied to its 2026 restructuring plan to reach up to $2.1bn, largely owing to redundancies and related expenses.The job cuts are part of a broader trend in the tech industry, with over 70 tech companies cutting around 40,480 jobs so far this year, according to the tech redundancy site Layoffs.fyi. This trend is driven by companies reallocating resources towards artificial intelligence, heightening fears of AI-driven disruptions among workers.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically the US-Israel war on Iran, has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with the Bank of England predicting that over 1.3 million more UK households could face increased mortgage payments. Financial markets have reacted swiftly, with banks pulling around 1,500 mortgage products and raising interest rates on their remaining 7,000 home loan products in recent weeks, according to the Bank's financial policy committee (FPC). The FPC warns that approximately 5.2 million borrowers, or roughly 58% of borrowers across the country, could face higher mortgage payments by the end of 2028, up from 3.9 million before the conflict began. The data provider Moneyfacts reported that the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate has risen to 5.84%, up from 4.83% at the start of March. Caitlyn Eastell, a personal finance analyst at Moneyfacts, noted that the impact on borrowers has been almost immediate, with borrowing costs sharply rising. The FPC emphasized that a prolonged war increases the possibility of large, frequent and possibly overlapping shocks that could put global financial stability at risk. The UK's economic outlook has deteriorated, increasing pressure on households and businesses, with the FPC adding that a prolonged conflict could amplify risks that were already present before the conflict began. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, cautioned that markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing in interest rate hikes in response to the Iran war, stating that the Bank's remit is to cause the least damage to the economy and jobs.

Global financial markets experienced a significant shift on Wednesday as oil prices plummeted and stock markets rallied following comments from US President Donald Trump. He suggested that the conflict in Iran would be resolved within 'two to three weeks'.The international benchmark for oil, Brent crude, fell as low as $98.35 a barrel, marking a decline of over 15% from the previous day and its lowest level in a week. It later recovered slightly, trading down 2.5% at $101.Stock markets in Asia saw substantial gains, with Japan's Nikkei surging 5%, South Korea's Kospi jumping 8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 2%, and China's CSI 300 index up 1.7%. European markets also followed suit, with the UK's FTSE 100 up 1.8% and the Europe Stoxx 600 index rising 2.2%.Trump's comments on Tuesday sparked a relief rally in the US stock market, with the S&P; 500 rising 2.9%. He stated, 'Now we're finishing the job. I think in two weeks or maybe a few days longer, we'll do the job. We want to knock out everything they've got.'Market analysts are cautiously optimistic, with Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, noting that markets are 'choosing to believe the optimism from the White House.' However, she also warned that energy disruptions could continue for months, impacting inflation and economic growth.The prospect of interest rate rises in the UK has diminished, with money markets pricing in about 41 basis points of increases to the UK bank rate by the end of 2026, down from 66 basis points anticipated on Tuesday.The price of gold rose to its highest level in almost two weeks, up 0.8% to more than $4,700 an ounce.

The UK hospitality sector is bracing for significant job cuts and business closures as cost increases from new business rates and higher wage bills come into effect. An industry-wide survey of 20,000 hospitality businesses found that 64% of firms plan to cut jobs, 42% intend to reduce trading hours, and one in seven will be forced to close.The increased costs are attributed to changes announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves at the November budget, including increases to the national living wage and national minimum wage, which are expected to result in an extra £1.4bn in costs for the sector. Additionally, changes to business rates will see the average hotel in England facing an increase of £28,900 more this year (up 30%), while the average restaurant can expect a 15% increase worth £1,800.The trade bodies, including UKHospitality and the British Beer and Pub Association, have warned that the conflict in the Middle East will accelerate the impact of rising wage and tax costs, with energy bills expected to rise steeply. The economic shock wave caused by the war in the Middle East has pushed economic confidence to an all-time low, according to new figures from the Institute of Directors (IoD).The IoD's Economic Confidence Index fell to its lowest ever score of -76 in March, with business directors citing labour bills, supply chain inflation, and energy as the biggest drivers of cost increases over the next 12 months. The thinktank estimates that UK companies invest the equivalent of 11.1% of GDP, well behind countries such as Japan at 18.2%, and European nations including France, at 12.7%, and Germany, at 12%.