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Vice President JD Vance warned Iran that jeopardising the US‑Iran ceasefire over Lebanon would be "dumb", emphasizing that the United States expects the truce to remain intact despite Tehran’s frustrations. Pakistan, which brokered the two‑week ceasefire, publicly stated that Lebanon is part of the agreement. Vance, speaking to reporters in Hungary, countered that the United States does not consider Israel’s ongoing strikes on Lebanon as covered by the ceasefire. "If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart – in a conflict where they were getting hammered – over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice," Vance said, adding, "We think that would be dumb, but that’s their choice." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed Pakistan’s position, highlighting Lebanon in his repost of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s statement and asserting that the ceasefire terms are clear: the US must choose either a ceasefire or continued war via Israel. President Donald Trump and the White House, however, maintain that Lebanon was not part of the deal. Vance dismissed the contradictory messages as a "misunderstanding" and "bad faith propaganda," suggesting the Iranians mistakenly believed Lebanon was included. The lack of a clear explanation from US officials leaves observers questioning how such a misunderstanding could arise amid high‑stakes diplomacy. Israel’s track record of breaching ceasefires dates back to the November 2024 truce with Lebanon. On Wednesday, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon killed at least 254 people and injured more than 1,100, marking one of the deadliest assaults in the 15‑month conflict. Vance indicated that Israel has signaled a willingness to temper its operations in Lebanon, stating the Israelis have "committed to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon" to ensure the US‑Iran negotiations stay on track. The broader conflict intensified in early March after Hezbollah launched rockets in retaliation for Israeli attacks and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah now faces internal pressure from rival factions accusing it of dragging Lebanon into war on Iran’s behalf. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a stark warning: if Israeli aggression against Lebanon does not cease immediately, the IRGC will deliver a "regretful response" to what it called "evil aggressors" in the region.

Israel's devastating bombardment of Lebanon in the hours after a US-Iranian ceasefire was announced has been widely condemned amid global efforts to salvage the truce. The bombing, which killed more than 200 people, including strikes with heavy munitions on densely populated areas, drew outrage from the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international humanitarian organisations.Benjamin Netanyahu insisted Lebanon was not included in the Tuesday night ceasefire agreed by Donald Trump, and vowed the Israeli military would continue to strike Hezbollah targets “wherever necessary”. The Israeli prime minister said his forces had killed the secretary to Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem.The US vice-president, JD Vance, backed Netanyahu, claiming the US had never agreed to the inclusion of Lebanon in the truce. However, Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that further Israeli strikes on Lebanon would render negotiations “meaningless”. Iran would not abandon the Lebanese people, he said.Pakistan, which led the efforts to broker a ceasefire after Trump threatened a civilisation-ending onslaught, has said Lebanon had been part of the agreement. Robert Malley, a former American envoy who led earlier US-Iranian negotiations, said: “I would trust the Pakistani mediator that Lebanon was included.The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said on Thursday: “Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into the war, but Israel’s right to defend itself does not justify inflicting such massive destruction.” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, condemned the Israeli strikes as “unacceptable” and his British counterpart, Yvette Cooper, described them as “deeply damaging”, adding that failure to include Lebanon in the ceasefire would “destabilise the whole region”.

The UK government is calling for Lebanon to be included in the recent US-Iran ceasefire agreement, as divisions deepen between the UK and US over how to implement the truce. UK Defence Secretary John Healey and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have emphasized the need for a comprehensive ceasefire that covers Lebanon, following Israel's intensified bombing campaign in the country, which has resulted in at least 254 people killed. Healey warned that imposing tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as suggested by US President Donald Trump, would set a dangerous precedent for international shipping. The UK is advocating for the strait to remain open and free, consistent with international navigation laws. Cooper is expected to stress that Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire and that there must be no return to conflict. The UK's stance has been communicated to both the US and Israel. The escalation in Lebanon has prompted Iran to halt the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rise in global fuel and fertilizer prices. The UK is working to support the reopening of the strait, which is a critical artery for the global economy. Cooper will emphasize that freedom of navigation is crucial for global trade and that no country can close these routes without violating the law of the sea.

On a Wednesday night, Israel launched a massive air campaign against Lebanon that resulted in the deaths of over 300 civilians and struck more than 100 targets within ten minutes, including densely populated neighborhoods in central Beirut. The operation, described by Israeli officials as the largest strike against Hezbollah since the month‑long war with Iran began, has drawn sharp international condemnation. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, maintains that the attacks were narrowly aimed at Hezbollah operatives who allegedly relocated command posts to civilian districts such as the Dahieh suburb. Critics, however, argue that the scale and timing of the strikes suggest a broader political motive: to disrupt the US‑Iran ceasefire negotiated by former President Donald Trump, a deal many view as unfavorable to Netanyahu. Evidence fueling this theory includes the lack of any prior warning and the targeting of locations where high‑profile Hezbollah figures were present. Among the dead was Ali Yusuf Harshi, the nephew and personal adviser of Hezbollah secretary‑general Naim Qassem, leading some observers to speculate that the operation may have been a failed attempt to eliminate Qassem himself—mirroring Israel’s 2024 alleged assassination of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah officials later claimed they had been “notified of a ceasefire” and were committed to it from the morning of the attack, yet by Thursday both sides were again exchanging heavy fire. Netanyahu’s public justification for the strike—citing the killing of an aide to Qassem—appeared thin, reinforcing the perception that the operation was designed to act as a “spoiler” to a ceasefire he had previously opposed. Analysts at the Soufan Center in New York warned that, even if Lebanon is technically outside the ceasefire framework, the sheer magnitude of Israel’s assault will be viewed as escalatory. They argue the strikes serve a dual purpose: to widen the rift between Iran and its proxies and to retaliate against what Israel perceives as being sidelined in the ceasefire negotiations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the attacks, stating they breach the ceasefire agreement and render ongoing talks meaningless. He warned of a possible Iranian response against Israel, underscoring the fragile nature of the diplomatic effort. Marion Messmer, director of the international security programme at Chatham House, highlighted a deeper strategic dilemma: the United States’ difficulty in managing its alliance with Israel amid the broader US‑Iran conflict. She noted that Israel’s insistence that its Lebanese operations are unrelated to the ceasefire reveals a “key vulnerability” in Washington’s ability to steer its regional partners, potentially trapping the US in a conflict it seeks to exit. Further complicating the picture, the Israeli Defense Forces reportedly assess that defeating Hezbollah remains unrealistic despite the intensified bombing campaign, suggesting that the current strategy may be more about political signaling than achieving decisive military objectives. In sum, the Israeli strike on Lebanon not only caused a tragic loss of civilian life but also raised serious questions about the durability of the US‑Iran ceasefire, the strategic calculations of Netanyahu’s government, and the broader stability of Middle‑East geopolitics.

In a stark address delivered as the cease‑fire in the Iran conflict teetered, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war will leave a permanent scar on the global economy, slowing growth beyond the IMF’s original projections for 2026. Georgieva noted that, had the hostilities not erupted six weeks ago, the Fund would have been poised to raise its 2026 growth outlook. Instead, even the most optimistic scenario now entails a downgrade, and a swift return to pre‑war conditions appears unlikely. The uncertainty surrounding the cease‑fire—exacerbated by divergent positions of Washington and Tehran—has already pushed oil prices higher, reflecting fears of continued disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for world energy supplies. According to the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook, the conflict’s “scarring effects” will translate into lower living standards worldwide. The Fund had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a modest slowdown from 3.2% in 2025, buoyed by a tech‑driven investment surge. Georgieva emphasized that the war arrived when the economy was riding “considerable momentum” from technology investment and supportive financial markets. She outlined the mechanisms of damage: damaged infrastructure, supply‑chain interruptions, eroded confidence, and prolonged uncertainty over oil and gas production in the region. These factors will depress growth regardless of whether a peace agreement is ultimately reached. Georgieva highlighted that the most vulnerable will be net oil‑importing nations, poorer economies and small island states, which stand to feel the brunt of higher energy costs and reduced trade flows. She urged governments to avoid unilateral measures such as export bans or price controls, warning that such actions could "pour gasoline on the fire" and further destabilise markets. With many countries already carrying elevated debt levels and higher borrowing costs, the IMF chief called for targeted, temporary assistance to protect the most at‑risk households. She cautioned against broad tax cuts or blanket energy subsidies, which could stoke inflation and strain fragile public finances. Central banks, she added, should keep policy rates steady while remaining ready to act against inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who also chairs the Financial Stability Board, echoed the IMF’s concerns, describing the conflict as a "very big shock" that has heightened market volatility. He stressed that the situation remains fluid and that policymakers must stay vigilant. Overall, the IMF’s message is clear: the Iran war will reshape the global growth trajectory for the foreseeable future, and coordinated, prudent policy responses are essential to mitigate its lasting impact.

Israel's attacks on Lebanon have intensified, with the country launching its largest and most destructive attack on Lebanon in years, killing at least 300 people and wounding over 1,100. The attacks have sparked widespread panic and overwhelmed hospitals in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.The escalation has significant implications for the US-Iran ceasefire, which was agreed upon just days ago. Iranian leaders are accusing the US of failing to uphold the truce and threatening to back out of it unless Washington restrains its ally, Israel. 'The U.S. must choose – ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,' Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote on Twitter/X.The conflict has been fueled by Netanyahu's actions, who has sought to expand the conflict out of Gaza and into a wider war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister has undermined ceasefire talks and blocked potential deals, adding new conditions or changing his mind at the last minute. 'There is no ceasefire in Lebanon,' Netanyahu said in a recorded message, as Israel continued its attacks.The situation is volatile, with Hezbollah showing it is not as weak as Israel and the US had thought. The militia has fought pitched battles with invading Israeli troops and fired hundreds of rockets and drones at northern Israel. The conflict has forcibly displaced over 1.1 million people, many of whom are living on the streets.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed his concern over Israel's ongoing attacks on Lebanon, emphasizing that they 'shouldn't be happening' and must stop immediately. During his visit to the Middle East, Starmer called for the Iran conflict to be a turning point for the UK's future security. In an article for the Guardian, Starmer outlined the need for a fundamental reset in the UK's approach to make the country more resilient, including boosting defense and strengthening ties with Europe. He highlighted the importance of not being drawn into offensive military action, while rebuilding European alliances and increasing defense capacity. Starmer's comments echo those of Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, and John Healey, the defense secretary, indicating a potential divergence between the UK and the US under Donald Trump over the Iran conflict. The UK has been adamant that the Strait of Hormuz must remain free of tolls or levies, contrary to Trump's suggestion of a 'joint venture' between the US and Iran. Starmer criticized Israel's intensified bombing in Lebanon, which has resulted in over 250 deaths. He emphasized that the issue is 'a matter of principles' and not a technical one, dismissing arguments that the attacks are not part of the ceasefire agreement. The UK's stance has been to support the ceasefire and advocate for the inclusion of Lebanon in the agreement. Starmer also emphasized the need for the UK to be closer to the EU on defense, security, trade, and energy to strengthen the economy and make it more resilient. He highlighted that the war in Iran must be a 'line in the sand' and that the UK's response will define its future for a generation.

The son of a British couple detained in Tehran on espionage charges has called on Keir Starmer to prioritize their case in the “very opportune moment” of a ceasefire in the Iran conflict.Lindsay and Craig Foreman, from East Sussex, were arrested while on a five-day trip across Iran in January last year and have been held in Evin prison for 15 months.As Starmer visits the Gulf to discuss efforts to uphold the ceasefire, the couple’s family have called on the prime minister and the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, to raise the case in all diplomatic discussions.Lindsay’s son, Joe Bennett, said: “If peace is genuinely part of the agenda, then that has to include the release of innocent people. I don’t see how it can be peaceful and that’s the case.”The 31-year-old said it was a “very opportune moment” for the prime minister, and the government should “take courage” from the release this week of two French citizens. Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris had been detained in Iran for almost four years on espionage charges and were also held in Evin prison before they were released but barred from leaving Tehran.“Macron was incredibly vocal, he was championing above all else, and I think that’s where we can take some courage and have a look at how do we apply that kind of pressure in the right way,” said Bennett. “There’s a genuine opportunity for resolution here.”The UK government has faced claims that it is in denial about the extent of hostage-taking by foreign states and has failed to fulfil its promise to appoint a special envoy to combat the issue.Bennett has been campaigning for the couple’s release with significant cross-party parliamentary support. Despite several meetings with the foreign secretary, and a hearing into their case held by the all-party parliamentary group on arbitrary detention and hostage affairs, he said there had been no visible progress in 15 months.On Thursday morning, Bennett spoke with his mother in Evin prison. The past 48 hours had been tumultuous, he said, after a supposed ceasefire was agreed on Tuesday, little more than an hour before a self-imposed deadline by Donald Trump, who had threatened Iran’s “whole civilisation” would die if it did not meet his demands.The comments made Bennett feel “pure fear” until news of the two-week ceasefire was announced. The potential for peace talks had given the couple some hope that “they’ll be fought for” by the UK government, he said.“Yvette Cooper called it unjustifiable and that she would be fighting relentlessly to get them home. I need to see signs of that,” said Bennett.Despite a UN legal submission, significant cross-party parliamentary support, and several meetings with the foreign secretary and a hearing into their case by UK parliamentarians from the APPG on arbitrary detention and hostage affairs, he said there has been no visible progress to date towards securing their release.A Foreign Office spokesperson said: “The UK government continues work to safely return Craig and Lindsay to the UK.”

The ceasefire deal between Iran and the US has been hailed as a significant achievement for China, which has been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to hostilities in the region. Beijing's powerbrokers are being credited with pushing Iran towards agreeing to the ceasefire, bolstering its status as a regional mediator.In China's tightly censored domestic media, articles basking in the glory of China being the grown-up in the room at a time of international crisis were allowed to circulate. China's role in the negotiations was confirmed by US President Donald Trump, who told the Agence France-Presse news agency that he believed China had got Iran to agree to a ceasefire.However, some analysts are sceptical about how influential China could actually have been in the late-night discussions. The deal is advantageous to Iran, and encouraging the regime to agree to it would have been like 'pushing an open door', according to one analyst. Nicholas Lyall, a senior researcher at Trends, a research and advisory firm in Abu Dhabi, said: 'In terms of whether China had to do much pushing of Iran for it to agree to the temporary ceasefire, and whether Iran was swayed by this reported Chinese effort, it's essential to clarify what Iran has actually agreed to.'Officially, China has not confirmed or denied reports that it played an active role in the Islamabad negotiations. At a press conference on Wednesday, the foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said only that China 'had been actively working to promote de-escalation and an end to all hostilities'. China's economic interests are also at stake, as the risk of a global recession and soaring fossil fuel prices poses a threat to the Chinese economy, which is heavily dependent on exports.Analysts are even more sceptical of the idea that China might act as the guarantor of any ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Song Bo, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: 'China doesn't have a direct stake with any of the parties in the Middle East. Acting as a guarantor for a ceasefire would be an extremely high-cost diplomatic undertaking, and I don't think China would commit to that easily.'