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Iran has granted safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to ships from select countries, including Pakistan, India, and Turkey, despite its ongoing war with the United States. The strait, a vital waterway for global oil shipments, has been effectively blocked since the conflict began on February 28, causing oil prices to skyrocket above $100 per barrel.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was 'closed' and warned that any vessels attempting to cross would be 'set ablaze' by the IRGC and the navy. This move led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising 2.5 percent to $105.70 on Monday, more than 40 percent higher than before the war began.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed that Tehran had been approached by several countries seeking safe passage for their vessels, with the decision ultimately resting with the military. He confirmed that a group of vessels from 'different countries' had been allowed to pass through, although details were not provided.Pakistan was one of the first countries to have a ship pass through the strait, with a Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker called Karachi sailing out of the Gulf on Sunday. India also secured permission for some of its vessels to pass through, with two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas safely crossing the strait on Saturday.In addition, Turkey obtained permission for one of its ships to pass through the strait after authorities received approval from Tehran. China is reportedly in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for its crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers, with 45 percent of China's oil imports passing through the strait.Meanwhile, France and Italy have requested talks with Iran regarding safe passage for their ships, according to reports. The US has proposed a naval coalition to secure the strait, but countries such as Germany and Greece have ruled out military involvement.

The economic fallout of the US and Israel's war with Iran is being felt across the globe, with Gulf economies suffering some of the worst damage. Iran has launched continuous attacks on Gulf states since the onset of the conflict on February 28, arguing that it is targeting military bases used by the US for the war.Gulf nations have rejected Tehran's claims, insisting the attacks on them are unjustified. The Iranian strikes have upended energy production and inflicted major disruptions to tourism and travel, putting the region at risk of some of the most severe economic harm since the 1990-1991 Gulf War.According to Khaled Almezaini, an associate professor of politics and international relations at Zayed University in Dubai, the region is likely losing hundreds of millions of dollars per day in economic activity due to disruptions to aviation, tourism, shipping routes, and energy exports.Middle Eastern oil producers' daily output declined from 21 million barrels to 14 million barrels after a little more than a week of conflict, according to Rystad Energy. Output is expected to drop substantially further if commercial shipping continues to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to Tehran's threats.Goldman Sachs estimated that Qatar and Kuwait could see their GDPs plunge 14% if the war lasts until the end of April, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia facing contractions of 5% and 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, S&P; Global Ratings has affirmed a 'stable outlook' for Qatar, citing the country's large financial buffers.The war has also spilled over into other critical sectors, particularly tourism and travel, which accounts for about 11% of the GCC's GDP. Airspace closures and restrictions led to 37,000 flight cancellations from February 28 to March 8 alone.In an analysis published last week, the World Travel & Tourism Council estimated that the conflict was costing the region $600m in daily spending by international visitors. The economic fallout could be comparable to historic regional crises if the war drags on.

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has taken a significant turn with strikes on a gas field and energy production facilities. These actions are likely to have a ripple effect on the global economy, raising power, food, and other prices worldwide. As gas supplies dwindle and costs escalate, the impact will be felt across the globe.The effects of this conflict will not be limited to the Gulf region; they will echo far beyond, affecting economies and consumers worldwide. The key question is: who will feel the impact the most, and how far could this shock spread?Expert insights from Justin Dargin, an energy expert at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, provide valuable context to understanding the potential consequences of this escalation.

US President Donald Trump has ordered a pause in attacks on Iran's power infrastructure for five days. The move comes after Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz or risk US attacks on its power plants.Iran's Response to US Ultimatum: Iran threatened to attack power plants in Israel and the Gulf if its own power plants were targeted. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that it would hit power plants in Israel as well as any supplying electricity to military bases hosting US troops and assets in the region.Potential Targets: Iran could target Israeli power plants, including Orot Rabin north of Tel Aviv, with a capacity of around 3,900 megawatts, and Rutenberg in Ashkelon, with a capacity of around 2,250 megawatts. Iran also mentioned that it would target financial entities that finance US military assets, including US Treasury bonds.Energy Infrastructure: Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf have already had significant impacts. Qatar's state-run energy firm, QatarEnergy, halted LNG production following Iranian attacks on its operational facilities, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue. Saudi Arabia also shut down operations at the Ras Tanura plant, its biggest domestic oil refinery.Financial and Corporate Entities: Iran could target large US companies with Israeli links, including Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle. Iranian officials also mentioned that they would target US Treasury bonds and entities that finance US military assets.Other Critical Infrastructure: Iran's foreign minister accused the US of striking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island off the coast of Iran, cutting off the water supply to 30 villages. Bahrain also reported that an Iranian drone caused material damage to one of its desalination plants.

As regional security dynamics shift with Iran launching missile and drone attacks on Gulf neighbors, the head of Qatar’s General Authority of Customs has moved to quell concerns regarding potential supply chain bottlenecks. Ahmed bin Abdullah Al Jamal stated unequivocally that there are no indicators suggesting shortages or disturbances to trade flows within the State of Qatar.The assurance comes as Qatar’s armed forces intercepted recent attacks, highlighting the volatile security environment. However, Al Jamal emphasized that Qatar’s economic stability is underpinned by a robust defense strategy that extends beyond military interception to include diversified import sources, efficient logistics infrastructure, and sufficient strategic stocks of essential goods.A cornerstone of this resilience is the modernization of customs procedures. The implementation of the Al Nadeeb platform, an electronic single-window system, has streamlined import and export transactions. By integrating the electronic TIR system in May 2025, authorities can now exchange data in advance and conduct risk analyses, significantly reducing release times and enhancing transparency for businesses.Qatar’s logistical network is designed for redundancy, offering multiple avenues for trade movement. Hamad Port serves as a critical maritime hub, while Hamad International Airport provides essential air freight capacity. On the land front, the Abu Samra border crossing with Saudi Arabia has been upgraded with advanced scanning and security systems, ensuring that road transport remains a viable and efficient alternative for moving goods across the region.Furthermore, coordination with the Gulf Customs Union has yielded practical benefits, including the recognition of freight forwarder guarantees and simplified customs codes. These measures, combined with a comprehensive emergency framework involving multiple ministries, ensure that Qatar’s markets remain stable and that the flow of goods continues uninterrupted despite external pressures.

The military campaign launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its 24th day, bringing the region to a precarious juncture. As US President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approaches its expiration at 23:44 GMT on Monday, Tehran has issued stern warnings regarding the potential targeting of its electricity grid. In response, Iran has vowed to strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbors, raising fears of a broader regional energy crisis.The conflict is already having tangible repercussions on the global economy. Financial markets are reacting sharply to the escalating tensions, with stocks in China and Hong Kong on track for their worst performance in nearly a year. The uncertainty has fueled stagflation fears, prompting UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to convene an emergency meeting to address the mounting economic fallout.In Iran, the situation remains volatile. The Israeli military has conducted a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure across Tehran, resulting in powerful explosions reported in the central, southern, and eastern parts of the capital. Verified footage shows massive columns of fire and smoke rising over Karaj following an air attack. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has retaliated by threatening attacks on power plants in Israel and those supplying electricity to US bases, while also targeting a turbine engine production site in Qom used for drone components.The conflict has also spilled over into Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence confirmed that two ballistic missiles were launched toward Riyadh, with one intercepted and the other falling in an uninhabited area. The UAE reported debris injuries in the al-Shawamekh area, while Bahrain confirmed attacks on the US Fifth Fleet. In Qatar, seven people were killed in a helicopter crash, and Kuwait has formally protested airspace violations to the International Civil Aviation Organization.The human toll continues to rise. In Israel, alerts were triggered across Jerusalem and central Israel following explosions, with the casualty toll from attacks on Dimona and Arad climbing to at least 180 injured. In Lebanon, authorities report that at least 1,029 people have been killed since March 2, with over 100 of the victims being children. In Iraq, at least 60 people have been killed, primarily among pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces.

Iran has issued a stark warning to Gulf countries, threatening 'irreversible destruction' of their water infrastructure if the US follows through on its threat to attack Iran's electricity grid. This move has raised fears of a severe disruption to water supplies in the region, which heavily relies on desalination plants for drinking water.The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, are highly dependent on these plants, with some countries relying on them for up to 90% of their water supply. For example, Kuwait gets 90% of its water from desalination plants, while Saudi Arabia relies on them for around 70%.Desalination plants are considered critical civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, as they turn seawater into drinking water through a process called reverse osmosis. These plants are situated on the coast, making them an easy target for an Iranian attack, and disabling them would have a significant impact on civilian populations and industries.Iran has already followed through on a similar threat in the past, targeting a desalination plant in Bahrain after one of its own plants was hit. Analysts have warned that any disruption to water infrastructure could trigger a major escalation in the conflict, given the potential economic and civilian impact.The impact of targeting desalination plants would be severe, with most Gulf countries only having water reserves to last around a week. If plants are struck and capacity is taken out, the impact would be quick and severe, potentially wiping out water supplies to major cities in a matter of days.

The Trump administration has announced it will pay French energy major TotalEnergies $1 billion to kill plans to construct wind farms off the US east coast. This decision comes as a fuel crisis triggered by the war in Iran drives up global fossil fuel prices.The deal is the latest blow to the US offshore wind industry, which has faced repeated disruptions to multi-billion-dollar projects under Donald Trump. Trump has expressed his dislike for wind turbines, citing their ugliness, cost, and inefficiency, and his administration has moved to increase domestic fossil fuel production.In the deal, TotalEnergies will give up two offshore leases it had purchased off New York and North Carolina. The US Department of the Interior will reimburse the company $928 million it paid for the leases under Joe Biden. TotalEnergies has pledged not to develop any new offshore wind projects in the country and will invest nearly $1 billion this year in the development of four trains at the Rio Grande LNG plant in Texas, and the development of upstream conventional oil in the US Gulf and shale gas production.Critics of the deal, including climate advocates and environmental groups, argue that it will deepen the country's dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets and undermine efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources. They also point out that offshore wind projects can provide reliable and affordable power to the grid. The decision has been met with criticism from groups such as Oceantic Network, Evergreen Action, and Sierra Club, who argue that it will leave American consumers struggling to pay their electricity bills and undermine efforts to address climate change.

The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran and the fallout from the Ukraine conflict is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, warned that the growing fallout could be seriously compounded by interruptions to the 'vital arteries of the global economy', including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur, and helium.The crisis, which started with bombings against the regime in Tehran on 28 February, already represents the loss of 11m barrels of oil per day and about 140 bcm of gas. This is comparable to the losses seen in the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, which saw a loss of about 5m barrels of oil per day each, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which removed about 75bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from international markets.Birol said that at least 40 energy assets in the Gulf region had been severely or very severely damaged, so even an end to the conflict would not immediately restore energy supply. He also noted that the Asia Pacific region had been badly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply is transported.The IEA has taken emergency measures, including the release of 400m barrels of oil from strategic reserves, the largest emergency measure in its history. Birol said he is consulting world leaders about another possible release of emergency oil supply, noting that the initial move was only 20% of overall stocks.