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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, warning of a significantly darkened global economic outlook. The report cites the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28, 2026, as a major factor in the deteriorating outlook.The IMF's January report was titled “Steady amid Divergent Forces”; whereas the latest outlook is headlined “Global Economy in the Shadow of War”. The IMF now expects the global economy to slow compared to its previous forecast in January.The latest outlook notes that the global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war. Far be it for the IMF to gloat, but its suggestion in January that “steady” was not a word to describe the global economy unless you were desperately trying to make the madness of Donald Trump seem normal has aged quite well.The IMF remains unwilling to name Donald Trump, while noting the lingering effects of the persistent rise in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, it only talks about the Middle East conflict as though it sprang out of nowhere.The IMF warns of three possible scenarios: a bad scenario where Trump, Israel and Iran come to an agreement; an adverse scenario where things carry on for the rest of the year and oil stays around US$100 per barrel; and a severe scenario where nothing is resolved, oil prices reach $125 in 2027, gas prices increase by 200% over the same period, and food prices increase by 5% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.Even under the current bad scenario, the global economy is expected to slow compared to what the IMF forecast in January. But under the adverse and severe scenarios the global economy grows by just 2.0% this year and 2.2% next year.For context, over the past 40 years, the global economy has grown slower than 2.2% only three times – 1992 (global recession), 2009 (the GFC) and 2020 (Covid).The IMF has downgraded Australia’s growth by more than most. Even under the most optimistic scenario growth is 0.5% worse than was forecast last October – a bigger downgrade than all G7 nations.The IMF warns against governments doing popular things like energy caps or subsidies, designed to protect households and firms. It worries that such policies will increase inflation because we’ll all suddenly have so much more money to spend.Gas companies exporting LNG from Australia will be cheering on the war as it keeps gas prices – and their profits – ever higher. The senate is investigating changing the way gas is taxed. An ACTU proposal for a 25% tax on exports would raise roughly $17bn a year.

British Chancellor Rachel Reeves has stepped up her criticism of Donald Trump's war on Iran, describing it as a 'mistake' that has destabilized the global economy and damaged living standards around the world.In a marked fraying of the transatlantic relationship, Reeves said Trump's decision to break off from diplomatic talks with Iran and launch airstrikes seemed to have left the president in a worse place than he started.“I think it was a mistake to end those [talks with Iran] and to enter into conflict, because I'm not convinced that we are safer today than we were a few weeks ago,” she told an event in Washington.Reeves' comments added to blunt criticism of Trump she made just before flying out on Tuesday, when she expressed frustration at the 'folly' of his decision to go to war without a clear exit plan.The criticism adds to an increasingly tense atmosphere between Downing Street and the White House, with Trump's attacks on Prime Minister Keir Starmer becoming increasingly personal.The IMF warned on Tuesday that a further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession that would affect the UK more than any of the other G7 nations.Reeves called for the urgent reopening of the strait of Hormuz to calm global energy prices, saying the lack of clear US targets in negotiations with Iran had worsened the situation.“We had the waterway open a few weeks ago. So, if now the objective is to reopen the strait of Hormuz? Well it was open at the beginning of this conflict,” Reeves added.Reeves said she had come to the IMF meetings to “deliver that fair message” that the conflict in the Middle East was hitting living standards worldwide and required urgent de-escalation.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta expressed his pride in his team's performance after they reached the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in their history. The Gunners secured a spot in the last four with a gritty draw against Sporting, despite being without their injured captain Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka.Declan Rice, who was captain in Ødegaard's absence, revealed that he had come off his sickbed to play a crucial role in the match. 'He was shattered,' Arteta said of Rice. 'He had no chance to play today, he wasn’t feeling good at all today, he played 94 minutes at the level that he’s done.'The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating chances. Leandro Trossard headed against a post from a Max Dowman corner late on, while Sporting's João Simões fired into the side netting with virtually the last kick of the match.Arteta attributed his team's success to their durability, saying, 'That is the reason why we are the only English team in the competition, because this league and this schedule takes the hell out of you, and it’s very difficult to do what we’ve done.'Rice also addressed criticism of the team's recent performances, saying, 'If you don’t play well, if you don’t play good, take it with a pinch of salt and keep moving.'Arsenal will now face Atlético Madrid in the semi-finals, having maintained their record as the only unbeaten team left in this year’s competition. They will also look to bounce back from their recent Premier League defeat to Bournemouth when they face Manchester City on Sunday.

Leeds, the largest European city still without a mass‑transit system, may finally see a tram line – but not before the late 2030s. The latest West Yorkshire Mass Transit plan, championed by combined‑authority mayor Tracy Brabin, received a fresh £200 million in development funding, part of a broader £2.1 billion allocation for the region.City council leader James Lewis, who began his career on a 1993 work‑experience placement with the council’s highways department, says the new scheme differs from past attempts. Instead of squeezing trams onto existing bus routes, the proposal envisions a dedicated line that could “float over or under the M621 motorway, similar to the Docklands Light Railway,” linking the White Rose shopping centre, Elland Road stadium, Leeds railway station and St James’s Hospital.The Treasury’s independent review, however, forced the government to demand a fresh business case that proves the need for trams rather than buses. This procedural hurdle has added roughly two years to the timetable, pushing the projected opening into the late 2030s. Brabin acknowledges the setback, noting critics now claim the project is effectively “cancelled,” but she insists the work is merely delayed, not abandoned.Leeds’ transport woes date back to the removal of its historic double‑deck tram network in 1959 and the construction of the M621, which many locals blame for isolating the city’s south side. A 2025 Treasury review warned that previous “Supertram” proposals failed because they could not demonstrate sufficient value for money, leading to the withdrawal of funding in 2005 and the abandonment of a trolley‑bus plan in 2016.Supporters argue the tram is essential for unlocking massive regeneration. Leeds United investor Pete Lowy predicts the line could catalyse up to £1 billion of investment, including 2,500 new homes, retail and leisure space, and a 15,000‑seat stadium expansion. Northern Powerhouse Partnership chief executive Henri Murison points to the emerging South Gateway development in Bradford as evidence that transport‑led investment is already materialising.Critics remain sceptical. Leeds University transport professor Greg Marsden questions how an 18‑year‑long project can still be justified, while local residents voice doubts that a tram can ever be built in a city they consider “not big enough.” Tom Forth, co‑founder of data‑city firm Information Group, blames centralised decision‑making in London, arguing that devolved funding would accelerate delivery.In the meantime, the council is focusing on improving bus services, which will come under public control in 2027. Centre for Cities analyst Rob Johnson notes that increasing bus frequencies could immediately benefit the 390,000 residents currently poorly connected, potentially delivering more mobility gains than a tram in the short term.Nevertheless, Brabin maintains that trams are “more attractive, carry more passengers, and generate more jobs and growth” than buses, and she reaffirms her promise: “I promised a tram, and a tram is what we’re going to get.” The pledge to have “spades in the ground” by 2028 for preparatory works remains on the table, even as the project navigates the Treasury’s stringent process.

New research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) shows that the Help to Buy mortgage initiatives launched by the Conservative‑Lib Dem coalition in 2013 mainly benefited higher‑income households, rather than the intended first‑time, lower‑income buyers.The policy comprised two components: a taxpayer‑backed loan that reduced required deposits, and a mortgage guarantee scheme that covered part of lenders’ losses on high loan‑to‑value mortgages. Both applied to properties priced up to £600,000 and, by the 2014‑15 fiscal year, accounted for roughly one‑fifth of first‑time buyer transactions.Using a novel methodology that combined survey responses with local property price data, the IFS concluded that the bulk of the advantage accrued to wealthier purchasers—particularly those outside London and the south‑east, where homes are comparatively cheaper. These buyers were likely to secure a property eventually, even without the scheme.Bee Boileau, a research economist at the IFS and co‑author of the briefing, warned that while Help to Buy can theoretically assist newcomers onto the housing ladder, it also risks inflating prices and shifting loan risk onto the public sector. “Our research indicates that the Help to Buy schemes introduced in 2013 had the largest impact – in terms of making more homes affordable – on higher‑income households,” she said.The study notes that the mortgage guarantee scheme had “limited effects on affordability” because borrowers remained constrained by income‑based borrowing caps. Conversely, the loan scheme proved more influential for most households, yet its impact was muted by its restriction to new‑build properties.Both components appear to have had little effect on social mobility. Boileau suggested that future governments aiming to reduce inequality should target assistance at lower‑income families, acknowledging that such a shift would increase taxpayer exposure to loan risk.Critics have long argued that Help to Buy inflated house prices without expanding supply. A 2022 House of Lords built‑environment committee report echoed this view, recommending that funds be redirected toward increasing housing construction.The mortgage guarantee element was revived in 2021 and made permanent by the Labour government last year to preserve access to 95% mortgages. In response, Conservative housing secretary James Cleverly defended the legacy schemes, claiming they enabled “many thousands of people” to achieve homeownership, even as he warned that Labour policies were making the market harder for first‑time buyers.

Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor nominated by President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell, has filed ethics disclosures showing personal assets well above $100 million. If confirmed, he would become the wealthiest central‑bank leader in U.S. history. The 69‑page filing, released on Tuesday, lists two private‑fund investments each valued at over $50 million in the Juggernaut Fund LP, plus $10.2 million in consulting fees from the investment office of Wall Street titan Stanley Druckenmiller. Many holdings are described only in broad categories because “pre‑existing confidentiality agreements” prevent full disclosure; Warsh has pledged to divest these assets should his nomination be approved. Federal Reserve ethics rules, tightened in 2022, prohibit officials and their families from owning bank stocks, crypto‑related assets, and impose strict limits on buying and selling securities. The Fed’s own standards, set by the Federal Open Market Committee, are stricter than those governing other federal employees. Beyond the large private‑fund stakes, Warsh’s disclosures reveal a portfolio concentrated in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. Notable entries include the robotic‑coffee‑bar platform Cafe X, wearable‑tech firm Cionic, an Ethereum layer‑two project dubbed “Blast,” and a reversible male‑contraceptive solution called Contraline. Details for many of these positions are omitted, again citing confidentiality. The filing also enumerates assets held by Warsh’s spouse, Jane Lauder—a member of the Estee Lauder family with an estimated net worth of $1.9 billion. Her holdings feature municipal bonds listed simply as “over $1 million.” Liabilities appear modest in comparison: a 2015 mortgage of up to $5 million with JPMorgan Chase at a 2.75% rate, a revolving credit line of up to $5 million from PNC Bank at roughly 6%, and a $1.95 million capital commitment to THSDFS LLC, an interest Warsh has also pledged to divest. Ethics analyst Heather Jones of the Office of Government Ethics confirmed that Warsh’s divestiture promises would bring him into compliance with the Ethics in Government Act. Nonetheless, the breadth of undisclosed holdings is likely to dominate his upcoming confirmation hearing, scheduled for April 21. Political dynamics add further uncertainty. A key Republican senator has signaled intent to block Warsh’s confirmation until a Department of Justice investigation into Powell’s oversight of Fed‑headquarters renovations concludes. Although a federal judge recently dismissed two subpoenas targeting Powell—citing a perceived attempt to pressure him on interest‑rate policy—the Justice Department plans to appeal, potentially delaying any Senate vote. Powell has indicated he will remain “pro tem” if Warsh is not confirmed by the end of his term on May 15, and he could retain his governor seat until 2028 if he chooses.

Swiss ice‑hockey head coach Patrick Fischer has publicly acknowledged that he travelled to Beijing for the 2022 Winter Olympics using a fabricated COVID‑19 vaccination certificate. In a statement, Fischer described the act as a “serious mistake” and expressed regret for disappointing fans and officials. Fischer explained that he was caught in a personal dilemma, refusing vaccination yet unwilling to let his team miss the Games. "I was in an extraordinary personal crisis because I didn’t want to be vaccinated," he said, adding that he did not want to let his squad down. Swiss public broadcaster SRF presented evidence that Fischer had been fined nearly 39,000 Swiss francs (about $50,000) in 2023 for document forgery after purchasing the counterfeit certificate on social media. The coach disclosed his admission shortly after SRF’s confrontation. Despite the controversy, Fischer remains at the helm of the Swiss national team until after the World Championship scheduled next month, after which he is set to step down. The Swiss Ice Hockey Federation has stated that it considers the matter closed. Fischer, who has led the team since 2015, is among Switzerland’s most successful hockey coaches, guiding the squad to three Olympic appearances and securing three silver medals at the World Championships. Under his leadership, Switzerland reached the quarterfinals at the 2022 Olympics, a tournament that required strict COVID‑19 testing and saw the NHL abstain due to pandemic concerns. China imposed some of the world’s toughest COVID‑19 protocols for the Beijing Games, mandating vaccination or a three‑week quarantine for all athletes—a rule that Swiss snowboarder Patrizia Kummer chose to follow. The International Olympic Committee has not yet commented on the incident.

Eighteen Senegalese football supporters, who were convicted and sentenced to prison terms ranging from three to 12 months for a pitch invasion during the chaotic Africa Cup of Nations final in Rabat, have denied any wrongdoing.A Moroccan court in February sentenced the fans on charges of hooliganism, with prosecutors seeking stiffer penalties in the appeals court in Rabat. However, the initial sentences were upheld on Monday.The Senegalese fans argued that they had been forced onto the pitch because of a surging crowd or to avoid being spat upon and projectiles thrown towards them. They claimed it was not to protest against a refereeing decision at the end of the contentious AFCON final on January 18, which Senegal won 1-0.The Confederation of African Football (CAF) reversed Senegal’s win last month, awarding the title to Morocco two months after the final. The Senegalese Football Federation immediately instructed its lawyers to appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS).Defence lawyer Naima El Guellaf asked on Monday that videos of the incidents be shown to verify the identities of the 18 Senegalese in court, a move rejected by the prosecution.

On Tuesday, shipping data from LSEG and Kpler confirmed that at least three tankers entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, including the Panama‑flagged Peace Gulf, which is bound for Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Earlier that day, two U.S.–sanctioned vessels, the Rich Starry and the Elpis, also transited the waterway. Because none of these ships were destined for Iranian ports, they remain exempt from the U.S. blockade that began on Monday. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that, as of 10 a.m. ET (14:00 GMT) on Monday, a naval blockade was in effect against all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, in line with the presidential order issued by former President Trump. The directive applies to "vessels of all nations" operating in Iranian coastal waters, including the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Tehran has warned of possible retaliation against ports in neighboring Gulf states. In response to the blockade, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered every ship to follow a newly‑drawn navigation map that forces vessels to enter the strait north of Larak Island and exit south of it, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines in the former main traffic zone. Before the conflict, the strait functioned like a divided highway with two dedicated lanes—each about 3.2 km long—carrying roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. The IRGC now classifies the original lanes as "restricted" and has effectively closed them. Ship traffic has collapsed by **more than 95 %** since the war began. Kpler’s tracking data shows that only **279 vessels** passed through the strait between Feb. 28 and Apr. 12, a stark contrast to the pre‑war average of around **100 ships per day**. Even after a cease‑fire took effect on Apr. 8, a mere **45 ships** have entered or exited the waterway. The disruption has left hundreds of tankers and other vessels stranded in the Gulf, slashing global oil and gas supplies by an estimated **20 %**—the largest fuel‑supply shock on record. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the sharp reduction in shipments have pushed crude prices up by roughly **50 %**, with Asian importers bearing the brunt of the price spike. According to the same Kpler data, **22 ships** have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. The incidents are distributed as follows: eight in United Arab Emirates waters, six in Omani waters, two each in Iraqi and Qatari waters, and one each in Bahraini, Kuwaiti, Saudi and Iranian waters. These figures underscore the strategic vulnerability of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint and highlight how the combined effect of the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s alternate routing has reshaped global shipping patterns and commodity markets.