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The Houthis, a Shia sect backed by Iran, have entered the conflict with missile attacks on Israeli military sites. The true significance of their involvement depends on whether they intend to launch sporadic attacks or effectively close off the Red Sea to shipping. Disruption of the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Strait of Hormuz could have a devastating impact on global trade and economy. The Houthis' ability to interdict ships poses a significant threat, and their actions could drive up shipping costs and oil prices. The Houthis have a complex relationship with Iran, receiving arms from Tehran but not directly fighting on its behalf. A ceasefire with the US, mediated by Oman, has been in place since May 2025, but it does not apply to Israel. Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen's future is crucial, as it seeks to reach deals with the Houthis and former Southern Transitional Council (STC) supporters. The Houthis may act cautiously, seeking financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. The conflict could drag Yemen further into regional war, making peace more difficult and prolonging civilian suffering. The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has warned of the escalation's risks, stating it will deepen economic repercussions and prolong the suffering of civilians.

The possibility of US ground troops being sent into combat on Iranian soil is growing, driven by President Trump's desire to avoid being personally and politically humiliated in a war he started, mismanaged, and cannot end. Such a self-serving escalation could prove catastrophic for Trump and the American people, given the history of US military interventions in the region.Trump insists that the war is all but won, Iran is suing for peace, and talks are making good progress. However, in the real world, Iran is still fighting on all fronts, Israel is still bombing, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and the Iran-allied Houthi militia in Yemen has joined the war, attacking Israel and potentially blocking Red Sea trade routes.The US and Iran have each issued maximalist demands, but there is no sign of actual negotiations. They are even further apart than they were before Trump, egged on by Benjamin Netanyahu, abandoned diplomacy last month. Sometime soon, Trump will be forced to confront the huge gap between what he wants and what's on offer. At that point, he could turn to the troop buildup in the Gulf and order ground attacks.It's incredible to think that after all the mortal agony and anguish of Iraq and Afghanistan, a US president is once again seriously contemplating boots on the ground in the Middle East. Trump's stumped, hoist by his own petard, stuck between a rock and a hard place, and up the creek without a paddle. The creek in question is, of course, the Strait of Hormuz.Trump is increasingly isolated and out on a limb. His wealthy Arab business cronies no longer trust him. US bases on their territory now resemble a liability, not a defence. When he demanded NATO's help, Europe said: we'll let you know. Likewise, Iran's ethnic Kurds are less than keen to die for a muppet. Support for the war among the US public and the Maga right, always weak, is a fast-vanishing mirage.If Trump were to order ground attacks – both he and Netanyahu have publicly discussed the possibility – the targets would most likely be the coastal batteries, missile defences, and concealed armed speedboat bases dotting the northern flank of the Hormuz strait. An attack on the Kharg oil export terminal further up the Gulf is also predicted.The inherent, inescapable military risks are daunting. Casualties would be inevitable. Even if operations went well in the short term, questions would immediately arise about potential escalation when Iran counterattacked, expansion of the operational area, and duration of the occupation.

The conflict in the Middle East has taken a dramatic turn as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a second wave of attacks on Israel since joining the conflict on Saturday. The Houthis have vowed to continue their military operations in the coming days until Israel "ceases its attacks and aggression".In a significant escalation, two powerful explosions shook northern Tehran early on Sunday, with air defenses operating in the Iranian capital. The blasts occurred around 7:20 am, but it was not immediately clear what was targeted.Meanwhile, the US is reportedly preparing plans for ground operations in Iran, with the Trump administration having already deployed US Marines to the Middle East. The Pentagon is considering weeks of ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz.The entry of the Houthis into the conflict poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a critical choke point in the supply chain of energy supplies and other trade in and out of the Middle East. A shutdown of the Bab al-Mandab, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, would amplify the already grave impact of the war on the global economy and could also reignite a Saudi-Yemen conflict.Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has told one of the US's biggest annual gatherings of conservatives that he is ready to lead a new Iranian government and would call on the country's citizens to rise up when the "right moment arrives".Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target US universities in the Middle East after saying US-Israeli strikes had deliberately targeted two Iranian universities.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have launched a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel, marking their first such attack since the US-Israel war on Iran began. The assault was announced by Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesman for the Houthis, on their Al-Masirah satellite television. The attack targeted what Saree described as 'sensitive Israeli military sites' in southern Israel. The Israeli military reported intercepting one of the missiles. This development comes as Iran and Hezbollah continue to fire on Israel, with sirens sounding around Beer Sheba and near Israel's main nuclear research centre. Saree stated that the strikes 'will continue until the declared objectives are achieved, as stated in the previous statement by the armed forces, and until the aggression against all fronts of the resistance ceases'. This escalation follows a vague statement by Saree on Friday signaling the rebels' intention to join the conflict. The Houthis, who have controlled Yemen's capital, Sanaa, since 2014, had previously stayed out of the US-Israel war. However, they have been involved in attacks on shipping vessels during the Israel-Hamas war, disrupting commercial transit in the Red Sea. Over 100 merchant vessels were attacked with missiles and drones, resulting in two ships sinking and four sailors killed between November 2023 and January 2025. Experts consider the Houthis' entry into the US-Israeli war on Iran as 'very significant'. Mohamad Elmasry, a professor of Media Studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, noted that if the Houthis were to shut down the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal, it would impact two major international shipping waterways, alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera's Nida Ibrahim reported from Ramallah that the opening of a new front in the war is likely to raise questions in Israel about 'the viability of the operations and the way the government is conducting its war'. She expects Israel to retaliate to this attack, as seen in previous instances when Yemen joined the battle.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil exports, has seen its traffic plunge by over 95 percent since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. This disruption has led to a significant increase in pressure on oil and gas markets, with 20 percent of the world's oil and gas typically passing through the strait.To mitigate the impact of the strait's closure, countries in the Middle East are turning to alternative routes for energy exports. Three major pipelines in the region are being explored as potential solutions:Saudi Arabia's East-West PipelineThe East-West Pipeline, also known as the Petroline, is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. With a capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. However, it currently only has the capacity to supply 5 million bpd for exports.UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil PipelineThe Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the ADCOP or Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, has a capacity of 1.5 million bpd. Oil exports from Fujairah have risen in the past month, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared to 1.17 million bpd in February.Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil PipelineThe Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, has a capacity of 1.6 million bpd but currently only carries around 200,000 bpd. Iraq is among the top five global producers of oil and the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).Can these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?While these pipelines can take on some of the capacity of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only around 9 million bpd, compared to 20 million bpd for the strait. Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict.

The Houthis, allied with Iran, have stated they are prepared to intervene militarily if new alliances join the US and Israel against Iran or if the Red Sea is used for hostile operations. The group's military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, made the announcement in a televised speech on Friday.Saree emphasized that their 'fingers are on the trigger for direct military intervention' under these conditions. The warning heightens the risk of a broader regional conflict, especially considering the Houthis' capability to strike targets far beyond Yemen and disrupt shipping lanes in the Arabian Peninsula.The Houthis have controlled Yemen's capital, Sanaa, and much of the northwest since 2014. Following Israel's actions in Gaza, the Houthis have targeted vessels in the Red Sea and carried out drone and missile attacks on Israel, citing solidarity with Palestinians.In response to escalating tensions, Saree also called for an immediate halt to US and Israeli attacks on Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, and Iraq. The Houthis have previously agreed to a truce with the US, which included a commitment to cease attacks on US shipping in the Red Sea.

The conflict between Iran and Israel has taken a dangerous turn with the entry of Houthi forces from Yemen, who have launched a salvo of ballistic missiles at sensitive Israeli military sites. The Houthis, close allies of Iran, have vowed to continue their military operations until the 'aggression' comes to an end on all fronts.In response, Israel has reported intercepting one missile originating from Yemen. The escalation has raised concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict, with Pakistan attempting to host a meeting of Middle Eastern powers to find a regional approach to ending the conflict.The entry of the Houthis poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a critical choke point for energy supplies and trade. A shutdown of this strait, combined with Iran's near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would have a devastating impact on the global economy.The conflict has also seen an escalation in the array of weapons being used, with reports of the US dropping cluster munitions and Iran using ballistic missiles carrying cluster warheads. Experts have cited concerns about the indiscriminate nature of these weapons, which have been banned by over 100 countries.The situation remains volatile, with US President Donald Trump suggesting that he had hoped for Saudi Arabia to join other Arab countries in normalizing relations with Israel in return for the attack on Iran. However, the survival of the Islamic Republic's regime after a month of bombing has left Trump with the choice of either extricating the US from the costly war or intensifying the campaign.

The US and Israel are intensifying their military campaign against Iran, with Senator Marco Rubio stating that the operation is expected to conclude in 'weeks, not months'. The conflict escalated with a surprise strike on 28 February that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.Despite Iran's defiance and denial of negotiations, the US and Israel continue to target Iran's nuclear facilities and military sites. Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, warned that attacks against Iran will 'escalate and expand' to additional targets and areas that assist the regime in building and operating weapons against Israeli citizens.The conflict has significant economic implications, with the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil is usually shipped, being a key point of contention. The US has ordered thousands of marines and elite airborne troops to the region, possibly in preparation for a military effort to forcibly reopen the waterway.Iran has threatened to attack Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu and the Fujairah oil complex in the United Arab Emirates if a ground invasion takes place. The US president, Donald Trump, has issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding that it allow free passage of shipping through the strait by 6 April or face the destruction of its energy plants.The conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with over 1,900 people killed and 20,000 injured in Iran, and 19 people killed in Israel. The humanitarian crisis in Lebanon has worsened, with a fifth of the population displaced and nearly 1,100 people killed.The G7 foreign ministers have reiterated the need for safe and toll-free freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and called for an immediate cessation of attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia has urged the US to ramp up attacks on Iran, a Saudi intelligence source has confirmed, while it is weighing a decision on whether to join the fight directly. The Saudi source confirmed reporting that the kingdom’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has urged Donald Trump not to cut short his war against Iran, and that the US-Israeli campaign represented a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East.The intelligence source said Riyadh was not just calling for the military campaign to be continued, but to be intensified. Trump appeared to confirm the report about the crown prince’s role, telling journalists on Tuesday: “Yeah, he’s a warrior. He’s fighting with us.”There are no reports of active Saudi military involvement in the nearly four-week-old war so far, but a Saudi political analyst said the kingdom was likely to take that step if current peace efforts led by Pakistan failed.“What matters now is Iran’s decision,” Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical analyst, said. “If Iran engages seriously, there is still a path to contain escalation. If it rejects the conditions and continues its attacks, the threshold for Saudi action will be crossed.”Alhamed added that Saudi Arabia “is not reacting impulsively”.“It is calibrating its response and preparing for a scenario where escalation, if it happens, will be deliberate and decisive,” he said, adding that Saudi Arabia “has not been pushing for war.”“It has been trying to avoid being drawn into it, while keeping all options on the table,” he said.Saudi Arabia has come under Iranian drone attack, as part of Tehran’s response to the US-Israeli attack on 28 February. One drone strike a week ago hit an oil refinery in Yanbu on Saudi Red Sea coast.The attack on Yanbu signalled an Iranian warning that it could also threaten that economic lifeline.“I believe that Saudi Arabia still maintains cautious neutrality in the Iran-Israel-US war,” Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defence expert told Agence France-Presse. But he added: “If the Houthis strike Saudi assets, Riyadh may shift toward defensive coalition support or limited retaliation.”The crown prince solidified his hold on power by cultivating a close relationship with Trump, but will now have to rethink Saudi reliance on the US for its security, observers have argued.“MBS [Mohammed bin Salman] has lost the bet on all his investments over the last several years,” Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations said. “He financially invested in Trump and Trump’s family and his corporation and his White House, but at the end of the day the views of the Saudis and of the whole Gulf have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu.”