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The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with talks to finalize a peace deal set to begin in Pakistan's Islamabad on Friday. The truce, announced by US President Donald Trump, will see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor through which a fifth of the world's oil supply passes.Countries around the world have welcomed the development, with many urging a lasting peace in the region. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supported Trump's decision, while also noting that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, where Israeli forces have launched a ground invasion and are fighting with the Iran-aligned Hezbollah.Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the news of the ceasefire but stressed the need for full commitment to the deal to achieve a lasting resolution. Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the ceasefire represents a very important opportunity for negotiations, diplomacy, and constructive dialogue.The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the announcement and called on all parties to abide by the terms of the ceasefire. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said Tokyo welcomes the news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran as a positive move.Indonesia's Foreign Ministry called on Iran and the US to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and diplomacy of each side. Malaysia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the ceasefire marks a significant development and serves as a crucial step towards de-escalating tensions and restoring peace and stability to the Middle East.Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong issued a joint statement welcoming the news and expressing their hopes that the deal will lead to a long-lasting resolution. New Zealand's Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters said his government welcomes the news of a ceasefire, although many concerns remain.

Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Iran, threatening to "obliterate" its power stations and fresh water plants if a peace deal is not reached soon. This comes as the US and Israel's joint war against Iran enters its second month, with Tehran remaining defiant in the face of US peace proposals.The conflict has already had significant repercussions, including a record monthly rise in oil prices and concerns over a potential US ground operation to seize Kharg Island. Trump's threat to destroy civilian infrastructure, such as power and water facilities, has been condemned by human rights groups as a potential war crime.The White House has also suggested that Arab countries may be asked to help foot the bill for the war, adding a new dimension to the conflict. "It's an idea that I know that he has," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.International pressure is mounting, with Spain closing its airspace to US planes involved in the conflict and the UK's prime minister reiterating that "this is not our war and we are not going to get dragged into it". Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has called on Trump to end the war, warning that "no one will be able to stop the war in our region".The conflict threatens to plunge the global economy into recession and trigger shortages of food and pharmaceuticals. The International Monetary Fund has warned that "all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth worldwide" if the conflict continues.

The UK government's borrowing costs have risen above 5% amid an intensifying global bond market sell-off fueled by the Iran war. The yield – or interest rate – on 10-year debt hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, rising 13 basis points to 5.081%, as investors acted on concerns about the economic fallout from the conflict.Borrowing costs also rose for the US and eurozone governments, underscoring growing turbulence in the global financial system after Donald Trump's extension of a deadline for a peace deal failed to soothe jittery investors. Financial markets worldwide slumped on Friday, extending falls seen since the outbreak of the war, with losses in London and across major US and EU trading hubs. The price of Brent crude remained above $110 a barrel.Kathleen Brooks, the research director for the UK at the financial trading platform XTB, said: “Markets feel more panicky this week, and Friday’s price action suggests that investors are losing faith in Donald Trump’s ability to end this war and reach a deal with the Iranians.”Economists have warned that the Bank of England could be forced to take a tough approach to tackling inflation after losing some of its credibility by underestimating the leap in inflationary pressures in 2022. The increase in borrowing costs will add to the challenges facing Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, amid pressure on Labour to provide a package of financial support for households already reeling from a cost of living crisis.

Following Donald Trump's recent claims that the US is engaged in 'strong talks' to end the war with Iran, Qatar took the unusual step of publicly distancing itself from any alleged diplomatic negotiations. The Gulf state's government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari explicitly stated, 'Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts,' adding pointedly, 'If they exist.'This represents a significant departure from Qatar's traditional role as a chief mediator in Middle East conflicts, having previously facilitated negotiations between Israel and Hamas, the US and the Taliban, and peace deals in Lebanon and Sudan.Over the past three weeks, Gulf states have found themselves on the frontlines of the conflict after their mediation efforts to prevent war were ultimately rejected by the US. The pattern of broken negotiations is particularly telling: the US attacked Iran twice during talks aimed at halting the Iranian nuclear program, which were championed by Oman. Discussions last June were halted as the US and Israel conducted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and revived talks in February were similarly undermined when Trump began bombing Tehran before the final round of meetings.Since the war began, Gulf states have been forced to spend billions defending against daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, with their economies and sovereignty suffering substantial damage. Analysts suggest their reluctance to engage with the alleged ceasefire efforts reflects both the heavy toll of continued warfare and lingering suspicion about whether Trump's peace initiatives are genuine or merely a pretext for further escalation.As Bilal Saab, senior managing director of advisory group Trends US and former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, explained: 'They've been burned by their previous experience. They previously thought they played a useful mediating role – until they realised that it was all for naught. Not to mention that they have been directly implicated in the war and are still being attacked by the Iranians. So there's a lot of pent-up frustration and disappointment.'By Wednesday night, the Iranian regime had outright rejected Trump's 15-point plan to end the war, submitted to Tehran via Pakistani generals, as 'extremely unreasonable' and presented their own substantially different proposal.The concern among Gulf states is that any negotiations could become a front for military escalation or even the assassination of additional Iranian leaders. This anxiety is compounded by the simultaneous deployment of thousands of US troops to the region and the persistent fear of being used as pawns in the US and Israel's Middle East strategy.Professor Bader al-Saif of Kuwait University noted: 'Whenever the word negotiation was used by the Trump administration, we unfortunately ended up under the rubric of war.' He emphasized that while Gulf states are reluctant to engage with what they perceive as a potential Trumpian charade, they recognize the critical importance of shaping any realistic peace negotiations that could affect their future.The existential threat to Gulf economic ambitions is particularly concerning. The prospect of Trump ending the war with the current Iranian regime still in place—potentially more vengeful than before and acutely aware of the damage its missiles can inflict on multi-billion-dollar infrastructure—poses significant risks. Additionally, there remains no clear solution to Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the region's oil and gas exports flow.Analysts suggest that beyond relying on US-led negotiations, Gulf states should pursue their own separate dialogue with Iran. As al-Saif stated: 'They shouldn't only count on the US to do the negotiation. They should go and strike a deal with Iran for themselves. This was not our war, and if we can shield ourselves from being impacted any further, we should do it to protect our own national interests.'