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The Strategic Retreat: Trump's Iran Policy EvolutionAfter weeks of stop-start negotiations, the US and Iran now reportedly stand on the verge of a deal to end the fighting, with the most immediate consequence being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This development marks a dramatic shift from President Trump's initial maximalist goals, which included regime change, destruction of Iran's nuclear program, and elimination of its regional proxies.The Peace Deal Terms: Ceasefire and NegotiationsThe reported memorandum of understanding, reached with the help of Pakistani and Qatari mediators, would extend the current ceasefire for 60 days, during which negotiations would take place on the two-decades-old dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Iran's closure of the strategically vital waterway—conduit of 20% of the world's crude oil supplies before the war started—has had a baleful effect on the US economy, sending gasoline prices soaring and leading to a shortage of fertilizer that threatens food supplies and prices.From Maximalism to Reality: Strategic ImplicationsThe specter of fudged compromise illustrates how Trump's maximalist goals have shrunk—and in the eyes of some commentators, been defeated. Robert Kagan, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in The Atlantic that "Trump's endgame is surrender," adding that the president "no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat." Despite Trump's initial declarations that only "unconditional surrender" would be acceptable, Iran's military capabilities remain largely intact, with analysts estimating that 70% of their ballistic missiles and 70-80% of drones are still operational.Regional Impact: Shifting Power DynamicsThe evolving situation represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics. Contrary to Trump's expectations, the Islamic regime remains intact despite targeted assassinations of its leaders. While Trump publicly proclaims successor leadership figures to be "more reasonable" than before, the regime appears to be more unyielding than ever. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father as supreme leader, was recently quoted as predicting that Israel would cease to exist by 2040. The limited military success of Trump's war of choice is now forcing him to address it through the pragmatic type of compromise that he and his rightwing allies once lambasted Obama for.Future Outlook: Trust Deficits and Political ChallengesRobert Litwak, an international relations professor at George Washington University, noted that Trump is being forced to confront a "persistent tension" in US post-cold-war policy between "transformational" approaches meant to topple rogue states and "transactional" agreements intended to change their behavior. "He's in a box because a transformational outcome is not possible," said Litwak. Trump faces significant political challenges in securing support for what essentially amounts to a variant of the JCPOA that he previously opposed. His credibility deficit with Iran, exemplified by his tendency to reverse positions on Truth Social, further complicates negotiations. As Vali Nasr, an international relations professor at Johns Hopkins University, noted: "The reason [Iranians] don't [sign on] is because they don't trust him. It has nothing to do with ideology or fractured leadership or the midterms. It's because of his record."

The Failed Dealmaker: Trump's Iran Dilemma For weeks, Donald Trump has tried to find a way to end the war he started with Iran – a deal that would allow him to declare victory and move past the conflict before it causes severe damage to the global economy and sinks Republican chances in the US midterm elections. But the self-proclaimed master dealmaker can't seem to stop sabotaging his own negotiations or to acknowledge that Iran is now in a better position to demand concessions than it was before the war. Strategic Missteps: From Military Action to Negotiation Deadlock Over the Memorial Day holiday, Trump skipped his eldest son's wedding in the Bahamas and canceled plans to spend the weekend at his New Jersey golf club. The last-minute changes heightened speculation that Trump was ready to unveil a deal to end the war. Trump then announced that he would hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential compound in Maryland that has been the site of historic diplomatic summits. But that meeting was moved back to the White House, as it became clear that Trump had not been able to close a deal he could announce with great fanfare. The Art of the Deal: Trump's Negotiation Paradox Why has an agreement eluded the business titan who wrote the bestselling 1987 book The Art of the Deal? Trump admires strongman leaders and is loth to project any sign of weakness – and he's afraid of reaching a deal with Iran that makes him look weak. The president is also sensitive to criticism that any agreement he negotiates will be worse for the US than the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which was brokered by Barack Obama's administration. Leverage Reversed: How Iran Gained the Upper Hand Trump's main problem is that Iran has more leverage than he does – and Iranian leaders are well aware of that advantage. On 28 February, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli war against Iran, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political officials. But Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US military bases across the Middle East, and it targeted the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Iran also deployed its most effective economic weapon: it closed the strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply passed each day. Economic Fallout: Global Disruption and Rising Oil Prices The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – along with Iranian attacks on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – disrupted the global economy and increased oil prices. In the US, average gas prices have jumped by 50%, up to nearly $4.50 per gallon, since Trump launched the war. Trump and his ally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could not topple the Islamic regime that rose to power after Iran's 1979 revolution. Instead, they ended up strengthening it – by allowing Tehran to deploy its geographic control of the strait of Hormuz into a weapon that could instigate a global energy crisis and a worldwide recession. The Emerging Deal: Limited Concessions and Unresolved Issues The emerging deal is focused on solving a problem that didn't exist before Trump started this war: fully reopening the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping so that oil prices can stabilize. Under a draft agreement being circulated to US allies, Washington would also lift its blockade of Iranian ports and allow Tehran to access about $12bn in frozen assets. Once again, Trump seems to be aiming for a limited deal with Iran that defers the most difficult questions to future talks, which could drag out for months or even years. Iran's Resilience: Military Strength Preserved In some ways, Iran has emerged stronger after a war intended to decimate its military capabilities. A CIA report sent to Trump earlier this month found that Tehran had managed to retain a significant part of its missile capabilities. The analysis said Iran preserved about 70% of its prewar stockpile of missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers. The report also concluded that Iran was more resilient than US officials had claimed, and it could survive a naval blockade for months. Political Calculations: Midterm Elections and Trump's Dilemma At his cabinet meeting, Trump said he didn't care about the midterm elections and wasn't in a rush to reach a deal. "It's got to be perfect," Trump told reporters, adding: "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement." Despite his weak position, Trump insists that he will strike a better deal with Iran than the one negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. That agreement provided Tehran with relief from international sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear enrichment. The Unintended Consequences: Strengthening the Adversary Trump could have avoided starting a regime-change war that failed, leaving the world to deal with its consequences. Instead, the master negotiator handed Iran a new economic weapon – and more leverage to extract a favorable deal. The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. Trump wrote in his famous book. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.

Rising rates of youth unemployment have created a split at the top of government over how fast it should meet its promise to give young people the full minimum wage.The Manifesto Promise vs. The Reality CheckPeter Kyle, the business secretary, is understood to believe now is not the time to give 18- to 20-year-olds the full minimum wage, which Labour promised to do in its manifesto. Others believe there is little evidence to show that recent pay rises for low-paid workers have had any effect on unemployment.Torsten Bell, a Treasury minister, told the BBC on Friday morning: “If you look at what the Low Pay Commission said in their annual report, they didn’t find evidence that previous increases in the minimum wage for young people had had an effect on their employment.”The £125bn Cost of InactionThe splits have emerged following a landmark government-backed report this week by the former Labour minister Alan Milburn, who found that youth unemployment was costing Britain more than £125bn a year. Milburn’s report revealed the number of young people not working or studying had surpassed a million for the first time in more than a decade, prompting calls to reduce the pace of youth minimum wage increases.Current Youth Rate: £10.85 (up 8.5% this year)Main Minimum Wage: £12.71 (up 4.1% this year)NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training): Over 1 millionThe Hospitality Sector DilemmaMilburn himself told the News Agents podcast this week: “To get the jobs there for them, you’ve got to make sure the employers are willing to take the risk. If you’re in, say, the hospitality sector or the retail sector, margins tend to be very low. These tend to be sectors that were really badly hit by the cost of living, hospitality in particular.”Tony Blair, the former prime minister, warned in an essay this week that policies such as increasing the minimum wage – which he brought in – had created “headwinds, not tailwinds, for businesses.”The October Low Pay Commission VerdictLabour promised in its manifesto to equalise the rates of the minimum wage for 18- to 20-year-olds with those of workers who are 21 and over but did not say how quickly this would be achieved. Bell said on Friday: “We’re committed to our manifesto that we stood on and we will deliver it. But that manifesto did not set out the timeline.”While he and others in the government believe they should slow down the pace of rises in youth rates of the national minimum wage if there is evidence that it has an impact on employment, they do not yet believe that evidence exists.The commission will tell the government in October what it is recommending for the financial year starting on 1 April 2027; some in government privately hope it will give a recommendation significantly lower than this year’s. Earlier this year ministers even changed their guidance to the LPC to reflect the concerns in government over unemployment among young people, telling it to prioritise employment rates instead.

UK Slashes Eligibility for the Darwin Initiative, Excluding 89 NationsThe Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) announced a major reshuffle of the Darwin Initiative, a flagship UK aid programme that has supported biodiversity projects worldwide since 1992. The new criteria will bar 89 countries—spanning most of Africa, Central Asia and parts of Latin America—from receiving any future funding.Scope of the Cuts: Countries and Regions AffectedArgentinaIranSudanChadMaliAngolaArmenia (host of the upcoming UN biodiversity conference)ChinaIndiaMexicoTurkeyOther nations not listed are also slated for exclusion, representing a substantial contraction of the programme’s geographic reach.Why the Reductions Matter for Global BiodiversityConservation experts argue the cuts undermine the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) target of mobilising $30 billion annually for nature by 2030. Andrew Terry, Director of Conservation and Policy at ZSL, warned that “continued cuts and restrictions risk undermining trust that those promises will actually be delivered.” Projects previously funded by the Initiative have tackled peat‑land fires in Indonesia, established Bhutan’s national botanical garden, and supported community‑led climate resilience in vulnerable regions.Potential Ripple Effects on UK International CommitmentsThe move comes just weeks after the UK hosted a major international aid conference, where climate‑and‑nature financing was celebrated. Critics, including Catherine Weller of Fauna & Flora, describe the decision as “shocking” and fear it will erode the UK’s credibility on global environmental pledges. A recent intelligence report flagged ecosystem collapse as a national‑security risk, linking biodiversity loss to food‑price spikes, migration pressures and geopolitical instability.Looking Ahead: Future of Conservation FundingDefra maintains that the remaining budget will be concentrated where “biodiversity loss is most acute and where Darwin Initiative funding can deliver the biggest measurable difference.” However, with only two G20 economies—Brazil and Indonesia—still eligible, the programme’s global footprint will be markedly reduced. Observers anticipate further austerity measures across UK nature‑related aid, potentially prompting NGOs to seek alternative financing streams or to lobby for policy reversals ahead of the October biodiversity summit in Armenia.

The LeadThe week's art scene is abuzz with exciting exhibitions and showcases. From British landscapes to gothic paintings, there's something for every art enthusiast. Exhibition HighlightsBritish Landscapes: A Sense of Place at Pallant House Gallery, Chichester, explores the romance and mystery of Britain's green and pleasant land through works by artists from Gainsborough to Hepworth. Lisa Ivory: Creepy gothic paintings at Gramercy Park Studios, London, featuring skeletons and nudes in shadowy landscapes. Jack White: An exhibition at Newport Street Gallery, London, showcasing his artistic skills. Delaine Le Bas: Mystical new artworks at Maureen Paley Gallery, London, including pieces made in glass at Venice's Murano workshops. Wendy McMurdo: A 30-year survey of her work at Portrait, Edinburgh, exploring the border between reality and digital fantasy. The Featured ArtistSteven Shearer's work, including Tokerman, is highlighted, with the artist discussing how his paintings conjure art history through adolescent ennui and coming-of-age alienation. Masterpiece of the WeekPortrait of a Poet by Palma Vecchio, circa 1516, is showcased at the National Gallery, London, featuring a poet with a laurel tree growing out of his head, symbolizing poetic associations in Renaissance Italy.

The Complete Entertainment LandscapeThis week offers a diverse range of entertainment options across cinema, music, art, and more. Whether you're looking to head out or stay in, there's something for every cultural enthusiast.New Cinema ReleasesBackrooms - Out now: This A24 horror film capitalizes on the internet phenomenon of Backrooms, featuring an infinite empty limbo where characters wander hoping not to encounter Entities. Starring Chiwetel Ejiofor, Renate Reinsve and Mark Duplass.Power Ballad - Out now: A feelgood drama about a wedding singer (Paul Rudd) who befriends a down-on-his-luck boyband star (Nick Jonas), leading to a hit single and subsequent resentment. Directed by John Carney.Tuner - Out now: A piano tuner with heightened hearing who also becomes a world-class safe cracker, leading to chaos. Stars Leo Woodall.Leonora in the Morning Light - Out now: A drama about surrealist painter Leonora Carrington, featuring encounters with Salvador Dalí, André Breton and Max Ernst. Based on the book by Elena Poniatowska.Live Music PerformancesCallum Au Big Band - Kings Place, London, 30 May: Composer-arranger and trombonist Callum Au showcases his mastery of styles from swing to salsa, funk and postbop jazz, launching his new album Sing Seven Seas.Twice - The O2, London, 3 & 4 June: The nine-piece K-pop girlband's world tour in support of their album "This Is For" features their shiny, genre-hopping discography plus solo work.Lany - 2 to 6 June; tour starts Glasgow: The LA soft-rock duo celebrates their discography with lyrically introspective songs like Super Far and Malibu Nights.Handel's Orlando - Longborough Festival Opera, Moreton-in-Marsh, 30 May to 7 June: The festival kicks off with Handel's chivalric tale directed by Sinéad O'Neill, featuring rising stars and the Academy of Ancient Music.Art ExhibitionsCamille Henrot - The Perimeter, London to 25 July: This French artist's exhibition focuses on her drawings, known for being dense, complex, and hyper-conceptual.

The Lead: This Week's Entertainment HighlightsThis week's entertainment landscape offers a diverse array of critically acclaimed shows and films, from hilarious comedies to chilling horror. Channel 4's "Make That Movie" stands out as one of the funniest shows of the year, while Netflix's "The Four Seasons" returns with a brilliant second season. Horror fans can explore the disturbing world of "Backrooms," while Marvel offers a stylish take with "Spider-Noir."TV Comedy Gold: Make That MovieChannel 4Summed up in a sentence Last One Laughing finalist delivers one of the funniest shows of the year, with this mockumentary about a director who makes awful films.What our reviewer said "So ostentatiously silly that it deserves to be paraded around the streets." Stuart HeritageRead the full reviewFurther reading "People are like: you're a crackpot": how Sam Campbell became comedy's oddball superstarNetflix Triumph: The Four Seasons ReturnsNetflixSummed up in a sentence Tina Fey triumphs again with the return of this comedy about a group of middle-aged friends who reunite during holidays throughout the year.What our reviewer said "Even more perspicacious, poignant and hilarious than the first." Chitra RamaswamyRead the full reviewMarvel's Stylish Take: Spider-NoirPrime VideoSummed up in a sentence In Marvel's witty homage to the hard-boiled films and fictions of the 40s – which can be watched in colour or black-and-white – Nicolas Cage plays Ben Reilly, who gave up being superhero "the Spider" five years ago.What our reviewer said "Everything is shot with style and confidence." Lucy ManganRead the full reviewFurther reading The life of PIs: the strange case of 2026's resurgence of hard-boiled detectivesHidden Gem: PoniesNow/Sky AtlanticSummed up in a sentence Emilia Clarke and Haley Lu Richardson have heaps of fun as two widows who become cold war spies in this espionage comedy-drama.What our reviewer said "It's a mashup of genres and tropes, but it is its own thing too – and an unexpected treat at that." Lucy ManganRead the full reviewHorror Innovation: BackroomsIn cinemas nowSummed up in a sentence A debut from 20-year-old director Kane Parsons that examines memory, reality and fear in an icily disturbing horror, in which Chiwetel Ejiofor accesses an infinite series of hidden rooms that all feel creepily askew.What our reviewer said "Backrooms progressively raises its game towards the big finish with jump scares, squirm scares and tiny shiver scares. There is real fascination in exploring this vast, invisible city state of fear." Peter BradshawRead the full reviewFurther reading Are you sitting uncomfortably? How Backrooms upended the horror movieMusic and Bromance: Power BalladIn cinemas nowSummed up in a sentence Nick Jonas and Paul Rudd star in a comedy of bromance and betrayal from Irish writer-director John Carney that brilliantly brings together Rudd's washed-up wedding singer and Jonas's insecure ex-boyband superstar.What our reviewer said "Power Ballad is about making it and dreaming big, about every busker never giving up on hopes of one day being mega. But as so often with Carney, it's about something else, usually left unacknowledged in movies about music or any sort of show business: the terrible binary of success and failure." Peter BradshawRead the full reviewUnexpected Pairing: TunerIn cinemas nowSummed up in a sentence Playing a piano tuner with super-sensitive hearing, Leo Woodall's relationship with Dustin Hoffman is a tender highlight in this safe-cracking thriller.What our reviewer said "What a pair they are; they are a real pleasure to watch in an easy, unforced drama that mixes romcom moments with a relaxed crime thriller. It's like the Safdie brothers in chill-out mode." Cath Clarke

The Lead: Arsenal's European QuestSince Arsenal's euphoric Premier League win last week, north London has been in a state of celebration. Now, with the Gunners poised to play in the Uefa Champions League final in Budapest, Gooner fever is spreading across the continent. Arsenal fans are embarking on extraordinary journeys to witness their team's first Champions League final appearance in 20 years, demonstrating the remarkable dedication of the club's supporters.The Travel Challenge: Trains, Planes and AutomobilesWith all 13 of Wizz Air's Budapest-bound flights from London sold out by Friday, and the last available ticket priced at £407 one way according to Skyscanner, Arsenal fans have become creative travelers. Darren Cornish, a 53-year-old IT manager from Hemel Hampstead, exemplifies this resourcefulness: "We'll get there by train, plane and automobiles," he said. After securing return flights to Linz, Austria for £150, he plans to take a three and a half hour train to Budapest on Saturday morning.Many fans are taking indirect routes through Vienna, Bratislava, Rome, and other European cities to avoid the exorbitant flight prices. Ben Boxhall and two friends from Essex flew to Kraków instead, paying £170 for return flights, then plan to catch a 5am bus to Budapest, arriving around midday. They haven't booked a hotel, intending to join thousands of fans at the Uefa meeting point before pulling an all-nighter and catching the first bus back.The Fan Experience: Generations of CelebrationThe journey to Budapest represents different things to different generations of Arsenal supporters. For younger fans like Ben Boxhall, 23, this is their first Premier League victory they can remember: "We were 18 months old when they won the league in 2004. This is the first one that we remember and celebrating with our parents and friends."Older fans like Neil Roberts, who has attended matches for 25 years, appreciate the rarity of this moment: "When you haven't had success for so long, when it does come around it's magical." This generational divide creates a unique atmosphere where older fans savor the moment while younger fans experience the thrill of success for the first time.The Financial Impact: Cost of Champions League GloryThe financial commitment from Arsenal supporters is substantial. While some fans found relatively affordable options like Cornish's £150 return flights to Austria, others are paying significantly more. Ollie Laurence, 23, knows "people who are paying north of a grand" on flights to get to Budapest. Ticket prices for the final itself are equally staggering, with some tickets reportedly available for around £2,500.This financial investment reflects the high stakes and emotional value of the occasion. For many fans, the cost is secondary to the opportunity to witness history, especially after a 20-year absence from the Champions League final.The Historical Context: A Free Hit at GloryArsenal's return to the Champions League final after two decades has created a unique psychological dynamic among supporters. With the Premier League title already secured, many fans view the final as a "free hit," as Darren Cornish explains: "This game is a free hit. If we lose, we've still got the premiership. If we win, it'll be the best thing ever. There's no pressure on these boys."This perspective contrasts with previous finals where the weight of expectation might have been heavier. The combination of already achieved success and the potential for a historic double has created an atmosphere of celebration rather than anxiety, allowing both players and fans to enjoy the occasion without the usual pressure of a must-win situation.

A Lifelong Love Story Born in Apartheid South AfricaIn the white-and-black world of apartheid South Africa, where television was banned as communist propaganda, a small boy fell in love with Arsenal FC. This 65-year-old fan's devotion began in 1969 when he watched the Gunners lose to Swindon Town in a cinema newsreel, starting a 57-year journey that will culminate in the Champions League final in Budapest with his 25-year-old son.The Origins of an Unlikely Football RomanceIt was April 1969, at the author's eighth birthday party, where he first encountered Arsenal through a Pathé News bulletin showing the League Cup final between Arsenal and Swindon. Despite Arsenal losing 3-1 to Third Division Swindon, the young boy was smitten with the "mighty red machine." This initial encounter, despite the defeat, set the foundation for a lifelong allegiance that would span decades and continents.A Double Triumph That Cemented the BondThe author's adoration for Arsenal transformed into true devotion when the club won the league and FA Cup Double in May 1971. Another trip to the movies in downtown Johannesburg showed footage of Charlie George scoring the winning goal against Liverpool at Wembley. The image of the long-haired player spreadeagled on his back, arms stretched out in disbelief on the sun-kissed Wembley turf, entranced the young fan and his friends, who would later emulate the celebration in their suburban gardens.Navigating Football Fandom Under ApartheidLiving in apartheid South Africa, the author faced unique challenges in following his beloved Arsenal. With no live broadcasts and television banned, he relied on delayed news sources:Sunday morning runs to the corner shop to check English football resultsSecond-half commentaries on BBC World Service, with Peter Jones painting vivid pictures with wordsCopies of Shoot! magazine arriving six weeks late, providing detailed analysis and photographsFrom Cinema Screens to Champions League FinalWhen television finally arrived in South Africa in 1978, the author could watch Arsenal matches for the first time. Three successive FA Cup finals at Wembley - including a glorious 3-2 win over Manchester United sandwiched between defeats - solidified his connection to the club. Now, after 57 years of supporting Arsenal from afar, the author and his son will attend the Champions League final in Budapest, representing the culmination of an extraordinary transcontinental football journey.Football as a Refuge and ConnectionFor the author, Arsenal provided more than just entertainment - it was a connection to a world beyond apartheid's constraints. During his time teaching in Soweto in the 1980s, he witnessed how football offered relief from the oppressive regime for his students, some of whom had been tortured by security police. One student, Lucas Radebe, would later become captain of Leeds United as they reached the Champions League semi-finals, demonstrating how football could transcend geographical and political boundaries.A Legacy Passing Through GenerationsThe author's passion for Arsenal has now extended to his 25-year-old son, who shares his devotion to the Gunners. Their joint attendance at the Champions League final represents not just a culmination of the author's 57-year fandom, but also the continuation of a football legacy that has spanned generations and continents. This shared experience in Budapest symbolizes how football passion can bridge generational gaps and create lasting family bonds.