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The ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran has brought relief, but it should not be mistaken for a resolution. The conflict has caused significant damage to both countries, with Iran's military capabilities and economy suffering greatly.Despite claims of success from all sides, the reality is that no party was winning the war. President Donald Trump has framed the conflict as a military victory and a step towards regime change in Iran, but the war has proven costly and damaging to US credibility.Iran's nuclear program remains a core issue in these negotiations. Tehran will need to show a willingness to compromise, whether through downblending enriched uranium or allowing international inspectors back into the country.The wider regional dimension risks being sidelined, with Israel and Gulf states seeking assurances that they will not remain exposed to repeated pressure on their infrastructure and shipping routes.The ceasefire should be understood not as the end of the crisis but as the start of a new and uncertain phase. What emerges from Islamabad may still fall short of a durable peace, but the alternative – a return to escalation – is far worse.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters that the United Kingdom has a "job" to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz after reports that the vital oil corridor was blocked again just hours after a tentative cease‑fire was announced. The leader arrived at the King Fahd airbase in Taif, Saudi Arabia, where he met with British and local staff before embarking on a broader diplomatic tour of Gulf allies. The visit mirrors his recent push to shape a cease‑fire framework for Ukraine. While officials describe the trip as complementary to the Pakistan‑mediated talks between Washington and Tehran, many Gulf observers see Starmer as a more predictable partner than a United‑States administration that has been criticised for its unpredictable stance. The cease‑fire, brokered barely an hour before a deadline set by the U.S. president, included a clause to reopen Hormuz. Starmer’s itinerary follows a UK‑led gathering of military planners that explored practical steps for achieving that goal. Iran’s state news agency, Fars, claimed that Israeli actions in Lebanon breached the cease‑fire, prompting a fresh blockage of oil tankers in the strait. Later on Wednesday, Starmer is scheduled to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Their agenda is expected to cover the removal of Iranian mines and the insurance of tankers that rely on the Hormuz route for global oil shipments. "There are many practicalities and moving parts involved; this cannot be switched on instantly," a UK official explained, underscoring the complexity of the task. Addressing the media at the airbase, Starmer acknowledged the temporary relief provided by the cease‑fire but warned that the situation remains in its early stages. He emphasized that the UK’s priority is a permanent solution that restores full maritime traffic. "The impact on our energy prices is evident – we have seen daily fluctuations over the past 39 days. It is our responsibility to ensure the strait remains open so that the world’s energy needs are met and UK fuel prices stabilise," he said. Starmer has previously drawn criticism from former President Donald Trump for refusing to back the initial U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran and for limiting U.S. use of British bases to defensive missions, such as targeting Iranian missile sites. When asked about the risk of the UK becoming entangled in the conflict, Starmer reiterated that Britain acts only in collective self‑defence and that his mandate is to protect British lives and national interests, which includes keeping Hormuz open. The remainder of his Gulf itinerary has not been disclosed, and it remains unclear which other regional capitals he will visit after Saudi Arabia. One government source summed up the mission: "The cease‑fire is welcome, but the decisive factor for the British public will be a fully operational Hormuz Strait, which will have the greatest impact on domestic energy costs." The source likened Starmer’s role to his earlier effort in assembling the "coalition of the willing" that pledged to back any peace settlement in Ukraine, noting that this is his first opportunity to demonstrate solidarity with Middle‑East allies.

The recent announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US has been hailed by Donald Trump as a victorious dawn of a new era, but it is Iran that enters peace talks with the stronger hand. The Tehran regime has demonstrated its power to close the Hormuz strait and holds a stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), the original crux of the conflict with the US, Israel, and allies.Trump won instant gratification with the ceasefire, which allowed him to remain the central player in the drama and claim a few hours later to have dramatically reversed course and be “far along” along the road to an enduring Middle East peace. However, the actual ceasefire terms remain hazy with varying interpretations in circulation.Iran's 10-point plan, not Trump's 15-pointer, was referred to when welcoming the ceasefire, calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate”. The Tehran government included the right to enrich in the Farsi version of the ceasefire terms, but not in the English translation, suggesting it was put there for domestic consumption as the regime boasted victory.There seems little doubt that Iran will make the right to enrich uranium a red line at talks over a long-term settlement, as it has in all its negotiations with the west, and its possession of 440kg of HEU (enough in theory to make a dozen nuclear warheads) will be a powerful bargaining chip.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

Political leaders across Washington breathed a collective sigh of relief on Tuesday evening when President Donald Trump announced a provisional two‑week ceasefire with Iran, ending a 24‑hour standoff that had seen him threaten to annihilate Iran’s “whole civilization” if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his self‑imposed deadline.The ceasefire declaration arrived just 90 minutes before the 8 p.m. ET deadline at which Trump had pledged to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges – a move scholars warned would constitute a war crime. A last‑minute diplomatic push by Pakistan persuaded the president to suspend the ultimatum, buying a narrow window for de‑escalation.In a post on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: “Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”Iran’s foreign minister quickly responded, stating that the strait would remain open for the next fourteen days under Iranian military management, effectively meeting the condition set by the United States.The president’s earlier warning – that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” – drew swift condemnation from Democrats, longtime allies who have broken with Trump over the crisis, and even Pope Francis, the first American pontiff.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer labeled Trump’s retreat as “desperately searching for any sort of exit ramp from his ridiculous bluster,” adding that the president had previously been called “an extremely sick person” waging a “wanton war of choice.”House Democrats, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, called for Trump’s removal via impeachment or the 25th Amendment, arguing that his conduct amounted to a threat of genocide against the Iranian people. Progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez echoed this sentiment, saying the two‑week deal “changes nothing” and urging Congress to act.House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries described Trump’s behavior as “unhinged, unpresidential and unconscionable,” and warned that the American public “strongly opposes this reckless war of choice.” He announced that Democrats would push Speaker Mike Johnson to reconvene the House and move a war‑powers resolution to secure a permanent end to hostilities.Republican reactions were more nuanced. Senator Rick Scott praised the ceasefire as “a strong first step toward holding Iran accountable,” while Senator Lindsey Graham expressed hope that diplomacy could “end the reign of terror of the Iranian regime,” cautioning that Iran should not be rewarded for its earlier attacks on the strait.Conversely, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a Texas Republican known for breaking with Trump, dismissed critics as “pearl‑clutching,” arguing that the president’s “language of POWER” is what adversaries understand, and that diplomatic niceties alone achieve little.The episode underscores a volatile moment in US‑Iran relations, where a single diplomatic pivot averted an imminent escalation, yet left Congress divided over the president’s authority to wage war and the need for a lasting legislative solution.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer embarked on a visit to the Gulf on Wednesday, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. This development brings a moment of relief to the region and the world, as stated by Starmer.The ceasefire, agreed on Tuesday evening, effectively cancels a self-imposed deadline by US President Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction. Starmer emphasized the need for the international community to support and sustain this ceasefire, with the goal of turning it into a lasting agreement.During his visit, Starmer will discuss diplomatic efforts to uphold the ceasefire and protect the UK and global economy, which has been impacted by the conflict. The British government aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil and gas shipping route that has been closed since US-Israel attacks began.The visit comes amid mounting pressure on Starmer to limit US access to British airbases, following Trump's warning that a 'whole civilization will die' if Tehran did not comply with his demands. Trump's comments were criticized by military observers and retired officers as 'likely war crimes'.British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has been in talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging a swift end to the conflict and giving the UK's backing to negotiations. Cooper and Rubio also discussed international efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, including a UK-led meeting that brought together over 40 countries to pursue reopening.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, which includes the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This development comes after a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and a threatened US military response.US President Donald Trump had issued an ultimatum for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction, but less than two hours before the self-imposed 8pm Eastern time deadline, he announced the ceasefire agreement. The agreement is conditional on Iran's complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.The ceasefire process was clouded in uncertainty after Iran released two different versions of the 10-point plan intended to be the basis for negotiations. Oil prices dived, stocks surged, and the dollar was knocked back on Wednesday as a two-week Middle East ceasefire sparked a relief rally, fueled by hopes that oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz could resume.Despite the provisional ceasefire, attacks continued across the region in the hours after Trump's announcement. The sudden about-face will allow Trump to step back as the US war in Iran has dragged on for five weeks with little sign that Tehran is ready to surrender or release its hold on the strait, a conduit for a fifth of the global energy supply.The agreement was welcomed by various countries, including Germany, Japan, and South Korea, who expressed hopes for a lasting ceasefire and peaceful resolution. However, some countries, such as Iraq and Australia, called for caution and noted that significant work remains to be done to secure a lasting ceasefire.

The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Tehran temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire. The plan, submitted via Pakistani intermediaries, includes 10 key demands, such as:The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.US military withdrawal from the Middle East.An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.The release of frozen Iranian assets.A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.The Iranian foreign minister stated that safe passage through the strait would be allowed under Iranian military management, with Iran and Oman charging fees on ships transiting through the strait. The US has yet to publicly state if it will attend negotiations in Islamabad on Friday.Key concerns include Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global oil supplies and regional stability. The US is unlikely to agree to Iran's maximalist demands, but they may form the basis for talks.The ceasefire comes as Trump's approval ratings have hit their lowest level ever, with sizeable majorities of Americans opposed to the war and frustrated by the rising cost of petrol.

Iran has warned that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could become new targets if the United States proceeds with attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, according to a statement cited by the Tasnim news agency. The warning came late on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 00:00 GMT (3:30 a.m. Tehran time) on Wednesday, threatening to "destroy a whole civilisation" if the demand is not met. Closing the strategic waterway would further destabilise the global oil market, already rattled by the ongoing blockade of Gulf oil exports. In response, Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref affirmed the country’s readiness for any scenario, stating on X that national security and infrastructure sustainability have been meticulously calculated and that “no threat is beyond our preparedness and intelligence.” Meanwhile, U.S. forces intensified strikes on Iranian targets, hitting railway and road bridges, an airport, a petrochemical plant, and the Kharg Island oil export terminal. Gulf states on high alert Regional authorities have taken precautionary measures: Bahrain’s Khalifa Bin Salman Port announced a temporary suspension of operations from early April 8, and the U.S. State Department issued a shelter‑in‑place order for American citizens in Bahrain, alongside travel advisories for the Hajj pilgrimage and for Riyadh. Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior imposed a curfew from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. (GMT 21:00–03:00) as a precaution, while the King Fahd Causeway linking Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was closed twice on Tuesday due to alerts in Saudi Arabia’s eastern region. Israel warned its citizens of a likely surge in attacks as the deadline approaches, citing the Karish and Tanin offshore gas fields as potential targets. Explosions and rocket fire were reported across the region, including near a U.S. diplomatic facility in Baghdad, in the Iraqi capital, and over Bahrain and the UAE. The UAE’s Ministry of Defence confirmed that its air defences are currently engaging missile and drone attacks from Iran, and Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported intercepting a missile aimed at its territory. These developments underscore a rapidly escalating security environment in the Middle East, with the potential to impact global energy supplies and international trade.