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The United States has experienced a notable surge in inflation, with consumer prices rising by nearly 1 percent in March. This significant increase, one of the highest short-term inflation rates in years, is largely attributed to the disruption of energy markets amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. According to a report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in March was 0.9 percent, up from 0.3 percent in February. This marks the largest increase since May 2022, during the peak of the cost-of-living crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The March increase was primarily driven by energy prices, with gasoline prices surging by 21.2 percent and fuel oil prices increasing by more than 30 percent. The energy index saw a 10.9 percent increase in March, the largest monthly rise since September 2005. The escalation in prices followed the US and Israel's launch of an all-out war on Iran on February 28, which resulted in the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil and gas prices worldwide to skyrocket. The price of a barrel of oil reached $120, up from about $70 on February 27. In the US, the price of one gallon of gasoline exceeded $4.1, a significant increase from less than $3 before the conflict began. Although a two-week ceasefire was agreed upon between the US and Iran, marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a fraction of its pre-war levels. US President Donald Trump has warned Iran against blocking the strait or charging vessels for safe passage. About 20 percent of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. While the ceasefire has brought some relief to the global energy market, with oil prices dropping to less than $100, US consumers are still paying $4.15 on average at the petrol pump. Experts suggest that it will take several months for prices to stabilize. The inflation report comes as US politicians focus on the cost of living and affordability, ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump's Democratic rivals have criticized him for launching the war without congressional approval, highlighting the increased economic costs for Americans.

The United States Department of Justice has opened an investigation into whether the National Football League (NFL) has engaged in anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers. This probe comes amid concerns over the difficulties consumers face in watching sports games and the growing trend of selling broadcast rights to streamers.Major broadcast station owners, US regulators, and senators have raised concerns about the increasing costs for consumers to access sports games, with estimates suggesting it could cost over $1,500 to watch all NFL games last year. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has also opened a review into the shift of live sports away from free broadcast TV to pay TV and subscription services.The NFL has responded by stating that more than 87 percent of its games are aired on free broadcast TV and that all games are available on free broadcast television in markets of participating teams. However, the investigation's nature and scope are still unclear.A 1961 law exempts major sports leagues from antitrust laws, allowing them to pool their individual teams' television rights and sell them as a package. This has led to concerns about the NFL's dealings with streaming platforms and potential anticompetitive practices.

The recent ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran has brought a fragile calm to the region, but experts warn that energy prices may take months to normalize. The conflict had a significant impact on global oil and gas supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20% of the world's oil and gas exports pass.Iran's response to US-Israeli attacks included choking off the Strait of Hormuz and attacking energy infrastructure in several Gulf countries. This led to soaring prices for energy and byproducts like helium, as well as fertilizers that rely on these inputs, affecting sowing seasons and consumers worldwide, especially in developing countries.Experts stress that a predictable and stable flow of cargo through the strait is needed before markets can stabilize. Currently, only a trickle of vessels are passing through, with five vessels crossing on Wednesday and seven on Thursday, down from 120-140 ships per day before the conflict.Rockford Weitz, a professor at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, described the situation as 'the biggest disruption in the history of global oil markets.' He emphasized that normalization will take time and requires collaboration among global powers and regional players.Additionally, concerns remain about Iran charging toll fees and skyrocketing insurance fees, which could keep oil prices high. However, experts agree that these fees are not the primary cost drivers.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of a looming inflation crisis and plans to downgrade its forecast for the world economy. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, stated that growth will be slower, even if the new peace is durable.For now, oil prices are expected to remain higher than pre-war levels due to the overhang of greater risk premium of supplies out of the Gulf. The situation remains uncertain, with experts closely watching for any side deals, such as a potential agreement between Iraq and Iran, which could impact oil production and prices.

The conflict in the Middle East is having far-reaching effects beyond the region, impacting UK mortgage rates and consumer confidence. In response to surging oil prices and inflation fears, lenders have pulled hundreds of mortgage products, replacing them with more expensive deals.According to Halifax, average UK house prices fell by 0.5% in March, with demand affected by higher mortgage rates. The Guardian wants to hear from individuals who have lost mortgage deals or been affected by rising interest rates.Share your experience by completing a short form or messaging the Guardian on WhatsApp at +447766780300. Responses can be anonymous, and submissions will be kept secure.The Guardian is seeking stories from people who have:Lost recent mortgage dealsBeen affected by rising interest ratesChanged housing plans due to the current economic climateAll submissions will be reviewed and potentially published, with the option to remain anonymous.

San Francisco‑originated coffee chain Philz Coffee announced a policy shift that will see Pride flags removed from all California locations. CEO Mahesh Sadarangani framed the change as a step toward a "more consistent, inclusive experience" across its stores, emphasizing that the company’s support for the LGBTQIA+ community remains unchanged.The announcement has ignited a rapid consumer backlash. By Friday morning, a petition on Change.org had amassed more than 4,000 signatures, urging Philz to retain the flags that staff and patrons view as symbols of safe, welcoming spaces. Critics argue that the move threatens to alienate a core segment of employees and loyal customers who associate the brand with LGBTQ+ advocacy.Philz operates 17 stores in San Francisco alone, many of which have historically displayed Pride décor and hosted annual fundraisers for LGBTQ+ organizations. The company has not disclosed when the flag removal will take effect, and reports from the San Francisco Chronicle indicate that Pride decorations remain in place at downtown and Castro locations, the latter proudly displaying a sign that reads, "Welcome to the Queerest coffee shop in town. Period."While Philz pledges to continue its allyship through fundraising and other initiatives, the controversy arrives amid a broader national climate of increasing hostility toward LGBTQ+ symbols, exemplified by recent federal actions such as the removal of a Pride flag from the Stonewall National Monument.Analysts suggest that the backlash could have tangible financial repercussions. Consumer sentiment surveys show that brand alignment with LGBTQ+ causes can drive patronage, especially in progressive markets like San Francisco. A sustained boycott or negative publicity could erode foot traffic and impact sales, prompting the chain to reassess the timing and communication of its decor policy.For now, Philz remains under pressure to balance its stated commitment to inclusivity with the operational decision to standardize store aesthetics, a dilemma that highlights the delicate interplay between corporate branding and sociopolitical expectations in today’s market.

Starbucks's UK retail arm secured a significant £13.7m corporation tax credit last year, even as it reported a 6% increase in sales to £556.3m and added over 90 new stores, bringing its total to 1,304. The tax credit, which can be used to offset future tax bills, follows losses widening to £41.3m in the 12 months to September.The company's financial performance was impacted by £40m in royalty and licence fees paid to its parent company, Starbucks Emea. These fees, which are paid to a UK-based entity that collects similar fees from across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, significantly contributed to the losses.Despite the losses, Starbucks UK's sales growth was driven by price increases, new loyalty schemes, and the introduction of “freshly baked in-store food”. The company also shifted its workforce towards full-time staff, reducing overall staff numbers by 244 to 5,352.Critics, such as the Fair Tax Foundation, argue that this situation highlights a recurring issue where large corporations like Starbucks use complex financial structures to minimize their tax liabilities. “This all feels so very Groundhog Day,” said Paul Monaghan, chief executive of the Fair Tax Foundation. “As per a decade ago, Starbucks UK reports annual growth in income and store numbers, whilst at the same time declaring a loss due to the payment of hefty royalty fees to other Starbucks subsidiaries. The end result, no corporation tax is paid.”In response, a Starbucks spokesperson emphasized the company's commitment to paying all taxes due, stating that it “manages its global tax responsibilities in keeping with its mission and values.”The company's financial challenges are expected to continue, with Starbucks UK citing a “challenging consumer environment” characterized by inflationary pressures, reduced discretionary spending, and increased competition. The company has received financial support from its parent group, including £30m in cash to keep the business afloat and a further £60m in February.

The US inflation rate experienced a significant surge in March, rising to 3.3% over the year, with prices increasing by 0.9% compared to the previous month. This spike is largely attributed to the escalating conflict with Iran, which has resulted in a substantial increase in energy prices.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for energy rose by 10.9% in March, primarily driven by a 21.2% increase in gasoline prices. This increase accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly all-items increase. Airfares also saw a notable rise, increasing by 2.7% in March and 14.9% higher than a year earlier.Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a more modest 0.2% over the month and was 2.6% higher over the year. The annualized inflation rate has not exceeded 3% since summer 2024.The conflict with Iran has driven the American economy into deeper uncertainty, adding to the precariousness that began with Donald Trump's tariffs last year. The war has also led to a rise in oil prices, with US crude oil priced 10% higher than before the conflict and nearly 30% higher since the start of the year.Recent data shows that prices are affecting producers, with the gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2025 revised down from an initial 1.4% to 0.5%. The prices index in the Institute for Supply Management's survey of managers saw its largest one-month increase in 13 years, rising from 63 in February to 70.7 in March.Consumer confidence is also falling, with the University of Michigan's closely-watched consumer confidence survey recording a 10.7% drop to its lowest level on record. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy.Despite the challenges, the labor market appears resilient, with employers adding 178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. However, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky situation in adjusting interest rates amid the conflict, as raising rates could help curb inflation but risk destabilizing the labor market and increasing unemployment.

The world economy is facing a potential threat of stagflation, a scenario where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains high. This situation can have far-reaching consequences, including reduced purchasing power, increased unemployment, and decreased investor confidence.Stagflation is a challenging economic phenomenon to address, as traditional monetary policy tools may not be effective in combating both stagnant growth and high inflation simultaneously. Economic experts are closely monitoring the situation, and policymakers are likely to face significant challenges in navigating this complex economic landscape.The possibility of stagflation has significant implications for businesses, investors, and individuals, as it can impact everything from consumer spending and investment decisions to the overall stability of financial markets. As the situation continues to unfold, it is essential to stay informed and adapt to the changing economic environment.

The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the US‑Israel war on Iran could ignite a new wave of global inflation, jeopardising the outlook for world growth even if the current cease‑fire endures. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced on Thursday that the Fund will lower its growth projection for the global economy at next week’s IMF‑World Bank Spring Meetings, stating that the conflict has turned a potential upgrade into a growth downgrade. Earlier this year the IMF had lifted its forecast to 3.3 % growth for the 191‑member economies. That optimism evaporated after the war erupted on 28 February, driving up oil and natural‑gas prices, damaging energy infrastructure such as refineries and tanker terminals, and disrupting fertilizer shipments essential for global agriculture. Georgieva warned that the conflict is eroding business and consumer confidence and urged member nations to “get your house in order” as heightened defence spending adds further strain to the world economy. She also expressed confidence that the IMF will secure U.S. congressional approval this year for a 50 % increase in quota‑based lending resources, unlocking more of its roughly $1 trillion lending capacity. The United States, the Fund’s largest shareholder, would thereby provide crucial financial reassurance amid uncertain future developments. In a newly released report, the IMF estimated that countries directly involved in armed conflict typically see output fall by about 3 % at the outset, accumulating to roughly 7 % losses over five years. However, the study noted that economies like the United States may avoid severe economic damage because the fighting does not physically affect their own territory. Central banks are also on alert. Georgieva emphasized that “the central bank cannot afford to let inflation spiral out of control,” a statement that precedes the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two‑day policy meeting scheduled for 28–29 April, where interest‑rate decisions will be made amid political pressure from President Trump to lower rates. Other monetary authorities, including the Bank of Mexico, warned that the Middle‑East turmoil could push inflation higher in Latin America’s second‑largest economy, underscoring the broader spill‑over risks of the conflict.