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The Lead: Russia's Escalation and Ukraine's Counteroffensive Russia's attempts at escalation via Belarus, where it has delivered more nuclear weapons and held highly publicized joint war games, come as its ground war falters in Ukraine. Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii reports that Ukraine has seized the tactical initiative, with Ukrainian offensive assaults now outnumbering Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions. Russia's Soldier Shortage and Recruitment Crisis Ukraine's forces have gained the upper hand because Russian forces are running out of soldiers to conduct offensive operations. According to Syrskii, "Since the beginning of 2026, the total losses of the enemy have already exceeded 141,500 people, of which more than 83,000 are irreversible." Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service believes Russia is unable to replenish these losses of more than 1,000 people a day, and this year is recruiting at a rate of 800-930 a day, suffering a net decrease of battlefield strength. In response, 40 Russian regions have increased sign-up bonuses by between 30 and 100 percent. Putin has also simplified citizenship procedures for Russian speakers in the Transnistrian region of Moldova, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as "Russia looking for new soldiers." Economic Impact: Ukraine's War on Russian Oil Infrastructure Russia's economy is fraying, having run up a $78.4bn deficit in the first four months of 2026 after budgeting for a $50.5bn deficit for the entire year. "Oil dealt the main blow. Revenues from hydrocarbons fell by 38.3 percent," according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service. Ukraine has scaled up its long-range campaign against Russian refineries and oil export terminals, depriving Moscow of windfall profits from high oil prices. International Energy Agency (IEA) data shows Russia has curtailed production by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April 2026 compared with April 2025. Reuters estimates that Ukrainian drone attacks knocked out about 700,000 bpd of refining capacity between January and May across 16 refineries, accounting for a quarter of Russia's refining capacity. Shift to Asymmetric Warfare: Ukraine's Strategy Evolution "Given our limited resources, to effectively resist a much larger enemy, we are trying to shift from a 'war of attrition' to an asymmetric strategy," Syrskii told the European Union Military Committee. "Our main tasks are to stop the enemy's advance and effectively counterattack, strike at the Russians' rear, including deep within their territory." Ukraine has attacked military-industrial targets in a 100km radius around Moscow, including the Angstrem semiconductor plant, the Solnechnogorsk oil pumping station, and the Moscow Refinery. Ukraine has also targeted refineries in Ryazan, Yaroslavl, Kstovo, and Sizran, as well as military hardware including helicopter gunships, amphibious craft, and anti-aircraft missile systems. Belarus Front: Russia's Nuclear Escalation and Ukraine's Warning Russia has put pressure on Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko to open a new front in the war against Ukraine. Zelenskyy stated that Russia would launch a simultaneous attack from its neighboring region of Bryansk against Chernihiv. "We know that there have been additional contacts between the Russians and Alexander Lukashenko aimed at persuading him to join new Russian aggressive operations," Zelenskyy said. Russia involved Belarus in a joint nuclear exercise with 64,000 personnel, more than 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, 73 surface ships and 13 submarines. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the two countries would launch ballistic and cruise missiles as part of the exercise. Russia has parked its new Oreshnik tactical nuclear missile in Belarus since last year and has threatened to attack European arms manufacturing and military sites with it.

The Lead: Demands for Transparency on £5m Gift The defence secretary, John Healey, has urged Nigel Farage to provide transparency about the £5m gift he received from a billionaire businessman, in particular over whether any of the sum could have been linked to Russia-connected profits. In a letter to the Reform UK leader, Healey also asked him to address the possibility that the war against Iran might boost the revenues of AML Global, an aviation fuel company owned by Christopher Harborne, who gave Farage the £5m in 2024. Farage initially supported the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. The Financial Inquiry: Scrutinizing the Gift's Origins The letter, seen by the Guardian, asked Farage to confirm that none of the sum was "derived from transactions with Russian state-linked energy companies", and to give assurances that AML Global had complied fully with all sanctions on Russian energy since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In a statement to the Guardian, AML Global said it had complied fully with all UK and international sanctions, and screened any business partners to ensure the same. The Political Fallout: Investigation and Disclosure The Guardian revealed last month that shortly before the 2024 general election, Farage was given £5m by Harborne, a British-Thai dual citizen based in Thailand. Farage did not disclose the money at the time, and it only emerged when the Guardian reported it. He has argued that because it was an unconditional gift, and received before he announced he would run for parliament, there was no need to declare it once he did become an MP. However, after a complaint from the Conservatives, Farage faces a formal investigation by the parliamentary standards watchdog, Daniel Greenberg, into whether he should have done. The Geopolitical Concerns: Russia and Iran Connections In the letter, Healey noted that AML Global supplies jet fuel through a network of "main and regional oil companies" covering more than 1,200 locations worldwide, including central Asia, the Gulf and eastern Europe. Healey asked Farage to confirm that none of the profits which helped finance the £5m gift came from transactions with Russian state-linked energy companies, that AML Global had fully complied with all Russia sanctions, and that "no fuel sourced from Russian-controlled refineries has passed through its supply chain". The Public Interest: Demands for Open Books Citing previous comments by Farage about Russia – for example, that Nato "provoked" Russia's invasion of Ukraine by expanding eastwards – Healey said this wider situation "places Reform UK under a Russian cloud that only transparency can lift". On Iran, the letter asked Farage to say whether he was aware of a potential benefit to Harborne's company from rising aviation fuel prices when he made supportive comments about the attack on Iran, which led to Iran blockading the strait of Hormuz. Healey added: "The public is entitled to ask whether your financial interests were impacting on your political positioning and your initial support for throwing the UK armed forces headlong into a war in the Middle East without a plan."

Heatwave Fuels Surge in Holiday Road TravelTemperatures are forecast to exceed 30 °C in parts of the UK this Monday, turning the late‑May bank holiday into a high‑traffic event. Motoring groups warn that the combination of heat and the start of the half‑term break will make coastal roads and border crossings exceptionally busy.Key Traffic Figures for the Long WeekendThe RAC expects almost 19 million drivers on Britain’s roads, 1 million more than the same period in 2025.Nearly four in ten drivers plan a leisure trip, with the peak traffic on Friday and Saturday.About 5 % of drivers say high fuel prices will keep them at home; the average petrol price is 158.52p, the highest since December 2022.Coastal destinations on England’s east and north‑west coasts, as well as routes to the south‑east and Cornwall (A303, M5, A38), are flagged for severe congestion.Transport analytics firm Inrix predicts the worst bottlenecks on the M1, M25, M5, and M6.Border Checks and Rail Disruptions Compound DelaysAt the Port of Dover, the EU’s entry‑exit system (EES) remains partially manual, leading to hour‑long queues for the estimated 18 000 travellers between Friday and Sunday. Ferry departures peak on Saturday morning.Rail services will also face interruptions: £64 million of engineering work continues, with replacement buses on the east‑coast mainline (London‑Edinburgh) and the Great Western mainline (Newport‑Bristol Parkway). Strikes by the TSSA union will reduce timetables on routes linking the Midlands, Birmingham, Liverpool, and London.Broader Implications for UK Travel and EconomyThe surge in road traffic and associated delays could strain fuel supplies, exacerbate congestion‑related emissions, and pressure border infrastructure. Despite these challenges, demand for domestic and short‑haul leisure travel remains robust, with the AA noting a higher proportion of day trips to the coast than overnight stays, and the travel association ABTA reporting strong bookings for Mediterranean holidays.What to Expect Over the Bank Holiday WeekendTravelers should anticipate the heaviest road congestion on Friday and Saturday, especially on the highlighted motorways and coastal routes. Ferry passengers at Dover are advised to arrive early to avoid prolonged border checks. Rail users should check for service alterations and consider alternative routes or modes of transport, given ongoing engineering works and strike‑related reductions.

The Economic Crisis in War-Torn LebanonBeirut, Lebanon – Mario Habib, a 51-year-old barber who opened his shop in 2006 just before war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah, is now living through another conflict. Twenty years later, his business in Furn el-Shebbak neighborhood is struggling as Lebanon's economy deteriorates under the weight of renewed war and global fuel crisis. "The price of running the generator is killing me," Habib said. "Everything has gotten more expensive, the price of petrol doubled, the supermarket is more expensive, even the products [I use for my business] got more expensive."Regional Conflict Disrupts Fuel Supplies and Economic GrowthIsrael's war on Lebanon and the broader US-Israel war on Iran are severely damaging Lebanon's fragile economy. Supply issues have particularly affected oil from the Gulf region, which has largely stopped flowing since the US and Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. In Lebanon, which was already suffering from a severe economic crisis, there is less work and people are losing their jobs at an alarming rate.Despite Lebanon's government expressing optimism about the country's economy in 2025, with the World Bank recording a modest 3.5 percent GDP growth that year, the renewed conflict has erased those gains. In March 2026, inflation reached an 18-month high in Lebanon. Lebanon's Bank Audi now predicts that there will be 0 percent GDP growth in 2026 if the war continues.Economic Indicators Show Deteriorating ConditionsInflation reached an 18-month high in March 2026Bank Audi projects 0% GDP growth for 2026 if war continuesLebanon had recorded 3.5% GDP growth in 2025Reconstruction and recovery costs estimated at $11bn by World BankWar-related losses in 2026 estimated at $3bn (with more expected)Oil prices have increased approximately 65% since MarchCompounding Crises Create Perfect Economic StormLebanon's current economic crisis is not solely the result of recent conflicts. The country has been facing multiple compounding crises for years:2019: Financial mismanagement led to a banking crisis, cutting people off from their savings2020: Beirut port explosion killed 218 people and devastated infrastructure2021-2022: Worsening state services and mass emigration2023-2024: Hezbollah-Israel war displaced thousands of Lebanese2024: Israel intensified attacks, displacing more than one million people2026: Renewed Israeli attacks have displaced over 1.2 million people"This is a war that comes after a war," said Sami Zoughaib, an economist and research manager at The Policy Institute, a Beirut-based think tank. "It comes after institutional collapse. It comes after one of the worst financial crises in history."Societal Impact and Economic VulnerabilityThe economic crisis is disproportionately affecting Lebanon's most vulnerable populations. According to the World Bank, agriculture, commerce, and tourism—sectors accounting for 77 percent of economic losses—are key income sources for low-wage and informal workers now at significant risk.Remittances, which were approximately $6.6bn in 2023, are expected to drop significantly in 2026 due to rising oil prices. The 65% increase in oil prices since March particularly affects remittances from Gulf countries, which are crucial to Lebanon's economy.The displacement crisis has mostly impacted Lebanon's Shia community, from which Hezbollah draws its support. However, economists warn that the economic fallout could exacerbate societal divisions, with political elites potentially scapegoating displaced people for the country's economic problems—a pattern seen in the past with Syrians and Palestinians.Future Outlook: Economic Collapse or Recovery?Should the current pattern of conflict continue, Lebanon's economy could soon become unviable, with many investors deciding that opening or operating businesses is not worth the potential returns. The impact has been felt across the country, with no community left untouched by the economic consequences of war.While some areas have been hit harder than others, economist Sami Zoughaib warns that Lebanon may be reaching a point of no return. "That is, for me, very dangerous," Zoughaib said, referring to the potential for political elites to exploit economic divisions for their own gain.For ordinary Lebanese citizens like Mario Habib, the immediate concern is survival. Despite rising costs and reduced business, Habib refuses to raise his prices. "I always prefer that the person who comes here is comfortable," he said. "A lot of things are more expensive, but I prefer to be conservative on this. I feel like if you come to me, you want to be happy and relaxed."

Lead: Merger Talks Collapse After Power‑Sharing StalemateOn Thursday, Estée Lauder announced that it has terminated negotiations with Puig to create a combined fashion‑and‑beauty group valued at nearly $40 bn. The split follows an impasse over which family‑controlled entity would dominate the board and the level of compensation demanded by key Puig brands.Breakdown of the Failed Estée Lauder‑Puig Merger NegotiationsThe discussions, first disclosed in March, stalled on two core issues:Control of the merged entity – both the Lauder and Puig families wanted the balance of power.Board composition – disagreement over the allocation of seats.Compensation for Charlotte Tilbury, a flagship Puig brand, which Bloomberg reported as a further sticking point.Both CEOs issued statements expressing gratitude for the talks but reaffirming confidence in their independent strategies.Share Price Reactions and Valuation ImplicationsInvestor sentiment shifted sharply after the termination:Estée Lauder shares rose 11.5% in post‑market trading, recovering from a roughly 20% decline that followed the merger’s initial disclosure.Puig shares, which had surged 15% when the deal was announced, plunged by a similar margin after the news.The combined entity would have been worth almost $40 bn (£30 bn/€34.5 bn), a valuation that now remains speculative.Strategic Implications for the Global Beauty LandscapeThe aborted deal underscores the difficulty of aligning family‑controlled businesses in the highly consolidated beauty sector. Estée Lauder, with a dual‑class structure giving the Lauder family >80% voting power, signals a preference for organic growth. Puig, having completed 11 acquisitions since 2011, will likely continue a selective, value‑focused M&A; approach under its new non‑family CEO, José Manuel Albesa.What the Split Means for Future M&A; in Beauty and FashionAnalysts expect both companies to pursue alternative growth paths:Estée Lauder may double down on its core brands—Clinique, Bobbi Brown, Tom Ford—and expand its digital and emerging‑market footprint.Puig is expected to keep targeting niche luxury brands that complement its existing portfolio, avoiding large‑scale mergers that could dilute family control.Overall, the termination highlights that governance and cultural alignment remain decisive factors in cross‑border beauty‑fashion consolidations.

The Fuel-Driven Retail ContractionMotorists cutting back on petrol and fuel purchases at the steepest rate since the Covid pandemic in 2020 drove retail sales in Great Britain to their biggest monthly decline in a year. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the overall volume of retail sales plunged by 1.3% in April compared with the previous month, marking the biggest contraction since May last year and exceeding economists' expectations of a -0.6% decline.The Fuel Purchase FreefallFuel purchases plunged more than 10% month on month, representing the biggest slide since November 2020, when monthly sales fell 14.8% as pandemic protocols put households into a second national lockdown. After strong growth in March, motorists appear to be conserving fuel, with the ONS noting that "these subdued fuel purchases contributed to a sizeable monthly fall for total retail sales in April."Financial Impact AnalysisThe ONS slightly revised down its initial estimate of retail sales growth in March from 0.7% to 0.6%. That previous rise had been driven by a 6.1% increase in fuel sales volumes – and a 12% rise in the value of fuel sales, the biggest monthly increase since November 2021 – as the Iran war prompted "panic at the pumps" and a rush to stock up amid the biggest jump in fuel prices for more than three years.When excluding the impact of the dramatic fall in fuel purchases, total retail sales still fell by 0.4% month on month, indicating broader consumer caution beyond just fuel purchasing decisions.Shifting Consumer Behavior in RetailDespite the overall decline, there were "strong and sustained" sales at beauty product and computer and tech shops in April. However, retail stores faced a 0.4% decrease versus March, with clothing stores taking the brunt as sales declined 2.4% – the lowest level since June last year. This decline occurred amid variable weather conditions and lower demand as shoppers worried about rising prices.Consumer sentiment has fallen at its fastest rate for four years, according to Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, who noted that "April 2026 will be remembered as the first month that the impact of the Middle East conflict first hit British consumers."Future Outlook for UK RetailThe question now is whether the downward momentum in retail sales will continue, or if May's better weather and potentially lower inflation can encourage consumers back into stores as spring turns to summer. Over the first quarter, total retail sales rose by 1.1% year on year and 0.5% compared with the final three months of last year, suggesting some underlying resilience despite the April downturn.The retail sector faces significant headwinds from geopolitical tensions affecting fuel prices and broader economic uncertainty, which may continue to influence consumer spending patterns in the coming months.

Lead: A Bold Fusion of Realism and HorrorClaire Fuller returns with Hunger and Thirst, a novel that fuses the gritty texture of social realism with the unsettling atmosphere of gothic horror. Set in 1987, the story follows Ursula, a young woman haunted by the deaths of her mother and a later, more sinister companion, while the narrative oscillates between documentary‑style observation and nightmarish spectacle.Fuller Blends Social Realism with Gothic Horror in 'Hunger and Thirst'The novel opens with Ursula’s traumatic childhood—spending two days trapped in a Moroccan bathroom by her mother’s corpse after a dengue fever death. By sixteen, she drifts through seven children’s homes before landing a postroom job at Winchester School of Art, where she meets the volatile Sue and her boyfriend Vince. Their obsession with horror films like The Shining and The Stepford Wives steers the plot toward a derelict house, the Underwood, where a seance and a reenactment of a past murder blur the line between art and atrocity. Fuller’s prose captures the “porousness” of identity, as characters literally and figuratively inhabit each other’s bodies.Publication Details and PricingPublisher: Fig TreeRelease price: £18.99Publication year: 2026Previous award: Fuller’s 2021 Costa‑winning Unsettled GroundSocial Critique of Thatcher‑Era Care System Through HorrorThe novel uses its horror framework to expose the under‑resourced British care system of the 1980s, a period when Thatcher’s government prioritized nuclear families over community support. Ursula’s movement between children’s homes and a “halfway house” populated by addicts and ex‑prisoners illustrates the systemic neglect that left many youths adrift. By juxtaposing this social critique with visceral horror, Fuller argues that the genre can convey truths about societal failure more starkly than conventional realism.Potential Legacy and Reader ReceptionFuller’s “outrageous aesthetic gamble” may set a new benchmark for literary horror that does not sacrifice social urgency. If readers and critics embrace the novel’s dual narrative—documentary‑style observation paired with gothic terror—it could inspire a wave of fiction that treats horror as a vehicle for political commentary. The book’s blend of “intense feeling” and “intimate portrayal” positions it as a contender for future literary awards and a touchstone for authors exploring the intersection of genre and social critique.

The Squad Revelation Thomas Tuchel is set to announce England's 2026 World Cup squad. The big announcement comes at 9:45 am UK time. The Probable Squad David Hytner and Jacob Steinberg have done their analysis and made their predictions on the final 26. Here's their probable squad: Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford Everton, Dean Henderson Crystal Palace, James Trafford Manchester City Defenders: Reece James Chelsea, Tino Livramento Newcastle, John Stones Manchester City, Marc Guéhi Manchester City, Ezri Konsa Aston Villa, Dan Burn Newcastle, Jarell Quansah Bayer Leverkusen, Nico O'Reilly Manchester City Midfielders: Jordan Henderson Brentford, Elliot Anderson Nottingham Forest, Declan Rice Arsenal, Kobbie Mainoo Manchester United, James Garner Everton, Jude Bellingham Real Madrid, Morgan Rogers Aston Villa Forwards: Bukayo Saka Arsenal, Noni Madueke Arsenal, Eberechi Eze Arsenal, Marcus Rashford Barcelona, Anthony Gordon Newcastle, Harry Kane Bayern Munich, Ollie Watkins Aston Villa, Ivan Toney Al-Ahli The Omissions Trent Alexander-Arnold has been omitted from the squad. Djed Spence has been included but reportedly broke his jaw after a collision with Liam Delap of Chelsea on Tuesday. Maguire was the first to go public about being left out, with the defender taking to social media to express disappointment over failing to make the cut. The most eye-catching omissions came in the attacking areas, with Foden and Palmer left out due to underwhelming seasons. The Surprising Inclusions Tuchel has been bold with his selections, notably turning to Toney for the first time in 12 months. The former Brentford striker, who now plays for Al-Ahli in Saudi Arabia, was part of England's squad at Euro 2024 but has not made an international appearance since coming on as a substitute in the friendly defeat by Senegal last June.

The LeadA friend of mine was recently left in tears after filling up the car she relies on to drive to work. Thanks to the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, prices at the pumps have soared. She wasn't sure how her family was going to make it to the next paycheck.It is a personal story and a distressing one, but the big picture is truly obscene. Fossil fuel companies are raking in monstrous, unearned war profits taken from the pockets of people like you, me, my friend, and any of us who fills up a vehicle or pays an energy bill.The War-Profits Bonanza$30m an hour: that's the pure, unearned profits banked by the world's top 100 oil and gas companies in the first month of the conflict in Iran, purely due to the spike in the oil price. Now the first numbers are in, and that $30m may have been a major underestimate.Shell's profit for the first three months of 2026 more than doubled to $6.9bn, as did BP's, to $3.2bn. TotalEnergies profits also surged by more than 50%, up to $5.8bn. Even in the Gulf itself, where the flow of oil through the strait of Hormuz has been heavily restricted, some companies have still flourished. Aramco, the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, saw its profits soar by 26% to $33.6bn in the first quarter.The Financial Impact on ConsumersThose four companies alone, benefiting not just from the oil price hike but also bumper oil-trading profits, made $23m an hour for the whole of January, February and March. And the Iran conflict only started on 28 February.To get some idea of the scale of this, imagine I gave you $6,200. What would you do? Pay off a loan? Book a fancy holiday? A second later, I give you another $6,200; then again, for hours, weeks and months. That is the rate of profit of just those four companies.There is plenty more to come for the industry. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to prewar levels, and reserves are getting dangerously low. Even if the oil price remains at today's level of about $100 a barrel, those 100 companies will make $234bn by the end of the year. Remember, the companies, and petrostates such as Russia, have done no extra work for this, just ridden a soaring oil price. Also remember, you are paying for this. Where I live in the UK, household energy bills are about to jump by £209 ($280) a year for the average home.The Industry's Climate ObstructionThe profits are extreme, but not new: big oil and gas has been wildly profitable for decades. It has made an average $1tn a year in pure profit for about 50 years. The fossil fuel sector also benefits from explicit subsidies that totalled $1.3tn in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.These riches have funded the lobbying and campaigns that block climate action and have done so for years, long after the science became crystal clear. As an example of the consequences, the UK's official climate advisers said on Tuesday that all care homes and hospitals will need air conditioning within the coming 10 years, to stop the heat killing people.The Green Transition AccelerationBut here's that silver lining I promised: these peak profits contain the seeds of their own downfall. Sky-high fossil fuel prices are pushing people, companies and nations to supercharge their rush towards green power for the simple reason that it is now cheaper and more reliable. Solar power does not need to transit through the strait of Hormuz, as Bill McKibben has observed.The numbers on the surge in renewable energy deployment, already exponential, are not yet in, but they will almost certainly be huge. Green funds are already attracting billions of dollars in new investments and one consultancy estimates that an oil price of $100 a barrel will drive $4tn of extra green investment by 2030.Big oil remains a formidable political force but, on the ground, people are already voting with their feet. Sales of new electric cars in the UK leapt by 59% in April, for example. The pain and anger of today's energy crisis may yet become a critical turning point in confronting the climate crisis.