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Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he wants to "take the oil in Iran" by seizing control of Kharg Island, the strategic outpost through which roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow. Experts say the remark underscores a blatant disregard for international law and exemplifies what they term “fossil‑fuel imperialism.” Patrick Bigger, co‑director of the Transition Security Project, described the approach as a "might‑makes‑right" logic that is both "abhorrent and spectacularly miscalculated." Trump is slated to give an update on the Iran‑U.S. conflict on Wednesday. He previously claimed the war could end within weeks, a statement that sent the stock market soaring on expectations of de‑escalation. Iran, however, has insisted it needs guarantees against future attacks before halting its counter‑offensive. The fighting continues, highlighted by an Iranian strike on a fully loaded crude tanker in Dubai and threats to "blow up and completely obliterate" Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened promptly. Kharg Island, a five‑mile strip that handles the bulk of Iran’s oil shipments, along with its power plants and oil wells, has been singled out by Trump. He told the Financial Times that U.S. forces should take over the island and the oil stored there. "My favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran," Trump said, adding that critics in the United States are "stupid people." Amir Handjani, an energy lawyer at the Quincy Institute, warned that the statement "completely discredited" the war’s stated objectives and revealed a classic play for natural resources. Handjani noted that Trump’s desire to seize Iranian oil is not new; he voiced similar ambitions in a 1988 interview while promoting The Art of the Deal, saying he would "do a number on Kharg Island" if elected. The former president has also floated comparable ideas for Iraq, Syria and Venezuela, suggesting the United States could appropriate their oil to offset war costs or bolster strategic reserves. Handjani emphasized that international law provides no framework for waging war to capture sovereign nations' natural resources. From a military perspective, taking Kharg Island would be extremely challenging. Iranian missile defenses have rendered regional U.S. bases inoperable, meaning any assault would likely require a parachute insertion of Marines into heavy fire, with the risk of massive Iranian retaliation. Handjani warned that such retaliation could target oil export terminals across the Persian Gulf, potentially driving crude prices to $200‑$300 per barrel and destabilising the global economy. The conflict has already caused the largest-ever disruption to global energy supplies, killing thousands and sparking sharp fuel‑price shocks. While consumers bear the brunt, major fossil‑fuel companies are enjoying windfall profits. Bigger noted that higher oil prices benefit oil majors and are being used as a pretext to expand U.S. drilling, further entrenching reliance on carbon‑intensive fuels. According to Bigger, Trump’s rhetoric reveals a belief that "fossil fuels are a linchpin of his domestic industrial strategy," and that controlling oil equates to controlling global power. He argues that this mindset threatens the international order and hampers the transition to cleaner energy.

The families of British citizens held in the United Arab Emirates over allegations that they shared images of the conflict with Iran have expressed frustration at the British government's failure to help.Several British citizens are among more than 100 foreign nationals who have been detained under draconian Emirate rules that outlaw publishing or sharing material that could 'disturb public security'.UK government ministers have refused to condemn the arrests, amid claims they are too fearful of offending the Emirates because of their economic clout.The campaign group Dubai Watch, which is supporting nine British detainees, said their identities could not be revealed for fear of reprisals. But it has shown the Guardian anonymised correspondence from their increasingly anxious families.A mother whose daughter is being held wrote: 'This experience is exhausting, mentally and emotionally.'She described reading media reports about the continuing conflict in which Iran has retaliated against US and Israelis strikes by firing drones and missiles against its Gulf neighbours, including the UAE.She said: 'I have just read another article, and quite frankly I could do one purely on the inadequacies and sycophantic responses from this [UK] embassy.'She also expressed increasing fears for her daughter's safety as attacks continued. The mother said: 'I spoke to [my daughter] last night and they are no longer allowed to go outside in the courtyard as it's now deemed too dangerous to do so. This is an even bigger worry as they are all just sitting ducks.'Another message from a woman whose husband had been detained under the same law said the case had been 'mishandled'. She added: 'We are scared because nobody is telling us the truth. Can you please help us.'Police in Abu Dhabi said those detained had 'filmed sites and events and disseminated inaccurate information via social media platforms during the ongoing events, an action that could stir public opinion and spread rumours among community members'. In a statement, the officials said these 'violations' amounted to a 'misuse of social media'.Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, confirmed that one of the detainees was a St Albans' constituent. She said their family was frustrated by the lack of consular help.Cooper told the Guardian: 'I'm deeply concerned that my constituent has been held with very little contact with their family, with no clear access to legal counsel, and no confirmation that UK consular officials have been permitted to visit them. The family are distressed and desperate for information about their wellbeing.'Cooper also criticised the UAE's round-up of anyone it has accused of sharing images of the conflict. She said: 'The response from the authorities appears wholly disproportionate given the nature of the allegations.'The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office confirmed that five UK nationals were receiving consular assistance in the UAE.David Haigh, a human rights lawyer and founder of Dubai Watch, said: 'There's an awful lot more than five cases. The embassy is overwhelmed.'He added: 'There hasn't been any government intervention because it would offend the UAE and they don't want to do that. Impotent is the best way to describe the response. They're too scared – it's all about the money and investment from the UAE.'

Ukraine is facing a critical spring as the country's situation continues to deteriorate. US financial support has dried up under Donald Trump, making European aid crucial. However, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is blocking a €90bn EU loan to Kyiv, causing exasperation for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.Orbán's opposition is driven by his nationalist base and allegations of collusion with Russia to undermine European decision-making. With US attention shifting to the Middle East, Ukraine has become more vulnerable and reliant on European support. Higher oil prices and the lifting of restrictions on Russian oil have boosted Vladimir Putin's war economy, while stocks of US Patriot missile interceptors are dwindling.Meanwhile, peace negotiations with Moscow have paused, and the White House's priorities in the Gulf are taking precedence over Kyiv's needs. Ukraine's president has stated that future US security guarantees are being linked to the surrender of unoccupied territory in the Donbas. Europe must develop stronger mechanisms to counter blocking tactics like Orbán's and provide crucial financial support to Ukraine.

The UK has been identified as the most vulnerable country in Europe to potential jet fuel shortages as the Iran war disrupts supplies from the Gulf, according to Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary. O'Leary stated that Britain's reliance on Kuwait for approximately 25% of its jet fuel supply makes it particularly exposed to shortages. He emphasized that even if there is a surplus of jet fuel in the Middle East, the logistics of shipping it to Europe remain uncertain.Jet fuel prices have surged, averaging $195 a barrel last week, more than double the average from the previous year. This increase is largely attributed to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage through which over a fifth of the world's oil normally passes.While oil prices eased slightly after US President Donald Trump expressed hope for an end to the Iran war within two to three weeks, the situation remains precarious for airlines. Ryanair has hedged 80% of its fuel costs until next March at $67 a barrel, but O'Leary highlighted that supply disruptions, rather than prices, pose the greater risk.The airline industry faces potential flight cancellations and capacity reductions if fuel supply issues persist. O'Leary also mentioned that higher fares could be a possibility, although there are currently no plans to increase prices. Additionally, he called for the UK government to abolish air passenger duty (APD), a tax that recently increased, further impacting the competitiveness of UK air travel.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released a stark assessment on Tuesday, projecting that a four‑week US‑Israel conflict with Iran could slash Arab regional GDP by 3.7 % to 6 %. In monetary terms, the loss translates to a contraction of $120 billion to $194 billion, marking one of the deepest economic shocks in recent Middle‑East history. UNDP’s regional director, Abdallah Al Dardari, warned that the downturn would likely eliminate 3.7 million jobs and drive around four million additional people below the poverty line. He described the situation as exposing the “fragility of the Arab economy.” The analysis is based on a scenario of a “short but intense conflict lasting for four weeks.” Should hostilities extend beyond that window, the economic fallout could be even more severe, especially as Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure tighten oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Amid tightening supplies, Brent crude futures surged 4.7 % to over $118 per barrel. The report highlighted that disruptions to “strategic maritime corridors” generate “knock‑on effects on inflation, trade flows, and global supply chains,” threatening the livelihoods of interconnected economies across the region. Poverty spikes are expected to be most pronounced in the Levant and in “fragile” states such as Sudan and Yemen, where baseline vulnerability is already high and economic shocks translate quickly into welfare losses. Lebanon faces a compounded crisis after Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes against Israel, following the US‑Israeli killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February. Ongoing air strikes, evacuation orders, and widespread destruction of residential areas, transport networks, and public services have triggered large‑scale displacement. Al Dardari concluded with a plea: “We hope the fighting will stop tomorrow, as every day of delay has negative repercussions on the global economy.”

Qatar’s foreign ministry announced that Iran’s recent assaults have crossed numerous red lines and stressed the urgent need for de‑escalation amid the ongoing US‑Israel war with Tehran.During a Tuesday press briefing, spokesperson Majed al‑Ansari warned that Iranian attacks on Qatar are having a catastrophic impact on bilateral relations.Al‑Ansari appealed to every combatant to refrain from targeting nuclear or energy infrastructure, cautioning that any further escalation will mean more losses for all parties.Since the joint US‑Israel offensive began at the end of February, Iran has struck a string of regional states—including Iraq, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan and Kuwait—despite none being directly involved in the conflict.While Tehran maintains that its operations target only U.S. assets in the region, the affected nations report damage to civilian infrastructure such as airports, power plants and ports, alongside civilian casualties.Qatar, a longtime mediator in Middle‑East disputes, clarified that it is not part of Pakistan’s diplomatic effort to end the war, though it continues “ongoing communications with all parties, including mediators and other regional players.” The Qatari side added that it fully supports Pakistan’s peace initiative and hopes it will yield lasting stability.In recent developments, Pakistan hosted a four‑nation dialogue with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to discuss ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Together with China, Pakistan unveiled a five‑point initiative calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran and Gulf states, safety of non‑military targets, secure shipping lanes—including the strategic Strait of Hormuz—and a durable peace grounded in the United Nations charter and international law.U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated that while diplomatic channels remain active, the United States is keeping the option of military escalation on the table.

The article delves into the factors driving Donald Trump’s attention to Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil‑export hub in the Persian Gulf. It outlines how the island’s strategic location could serve broader geopolitical calculations, potentially influencing regional power balances and U.S. leverage in Middle‑East negotiations. Economic considerations are also highlighted, with the island’s role in global oil shipments offering possible avenues for energy‑related leverage. Additionally, the analysis touches on domestic political narratives that Trump may be leveraging to reshape his foreign‑policy legacy. By connecting these threads, the report seeks to clarify why Kharg Island has re‑emerged as a focal point in Trump‑related discourse.

Ukrainian unmanned aircraft have targeted the Russian Baltic port of Ust‑Luga for the fifth time within a ten‑day span, intensifying Kyiv's campaign against Russia's oil‑export infrastructure. Regional governor Alexander Drozdenko reported that three individuals, two of them children, received medical care after the latest overnight raid, and several structures sustained damage. He added that regional air‑raid alerts have since been lifted, though details on port damage remain scarce. Located on the southeastern coast of the Gulf of Finland, Ust‑Luga comprises an extensive network of oil‑processing plants and export terminals. The facility moved 32.9 million metric tonnes of oil products in the previous year and typically handles around 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The series of strikes on March 22, 25, 27, 29 and 31 forced temporary suspensions of export operations. According to market‑based calculations, the cumulative effect of drone attacks, a contested pipeline strike and the seizure of tankers has halted roughly 40 % of Russia's oil export capacity. The disruption has contributed to a surge in global oil prices, with Brent crude climbing above $116 a barrel – its highest level in nearly two weeks amid escalating conflicts involving the United States, Israel and Iran. While Kyiv continues to press its aerial campaign, the European Union dispatched senior diplomats, including top envoy Kaja Kallas, to the Ukrainian capital. Their visit, timed with the fourth anniversary of the Bucha massacre, underscored EU commitment to holding Russia accountable for alleged war crimes. Kallas posted on X, describing Bucha as a symbol of Russian brutality, and affirmed that the EU will not allow such atrocities to go unpunished. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha echoed the message, urging international partners to keep their focus on Ukraine despite the widening war in the Middle East. Financially, the EU’s planned €90 billion loan for Ukraine has been stalled by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who objects to Russia's oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline and is also impeding Ukraine's EU accession talks. In parallel, Kyiv announced that its air‑defence forces intercepted 267 of 289 Russian drones launched overnight, while Russian officials claimed control of the village of Mala Korchakivka in the Sumy region. The convergence of intensified drone attacks on Russian oil assets, soaring energy prices, and high‑level EU diplomatic activity highlights the expanding geopolitical ripple effects of the Ukraine conflict across Europe and the broader Middle‑East theater.

Islamabad – Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will travel to Beijing, reaffirming the “all‑weather strategic cooperative partnership” between the two nations, according to the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs.The visit follows a high‑profile quadrilateral meeting in Islamabad that brought together foreign ministers from Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, all aiming to coax the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table amid a war that has already spiked global energy prices.Despite a recent hairline shoulder fracture, Dar pressed on with the trip, signalling the urgency of Pakistan’s diplomatic push. In a March 27 call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi praised Islamabad’s “untiring efforts to cool down the situation,” a sentiment echoed by spokesperson Mao Ning, who said China is ready to “enhance communication… for a cease‑fire and peace in the region.”Analysts argue the mission is less about collecting praise and more about testing whether Beijing will move from rhetoric to concrete action in the US‑Iran mediation. The central question: can China become an active partner rather than a silent observer?Former Wilson Center fellow Baqir Sajjad Syed explains that Dar will brief Chinese leaders on the recent Islamabad quadrilateral and seek to turn five draft principles – immediate ceasefire, resumption of talks, civilian protection, maritime security, and UN Charter compliance – into a binding framework.Pakistani scholars view the outreach as classic intermediary behaviour: Pakistan leverages China’s permanent‑member status to stay relevant, while China, unlike the United States, mainly engages with Gulf states and Tehran.Iran specialist Vali Nasr suggested Tehran may be looking for a Chinese “guarantor” for any US‑Iran deal, a premise disputed by professor Ishtiaq Ahmad, who calls the expectation “analytically weak” given China’s reluctance to back a declining regime.The strategic stakes are stark. The Strait of Hormuz moves roughly 20 % of global oil. Kpler data show China imported about 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian crude in 2025 – roughly 12 % of its total oil imports. The IEA estimates 15 million barrels per day passed through the strait in 2025, with China and India accounting for 44 % of that flow.China‑Iran trade hit about $41.2 billion in 2025, and a 2021 25‑year strategic cooperation pact promised up to $400 billion in Chinese investment for discounted Iranian oil, much of which remains unrealised due to U.S. sanctions.Syed describes China’s motivations as “clear and self‑interested”: protecting energy security, safeguarding Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, and bolstering its image as a global peace broker. A prolonged war would hurt China’s economy through higher oil prices and disrupted trade routes.While Beijing is unlikely to deploy military forces, it may employ diplomatic tools – public endorsements, joint statements, and economic levers – to push for a cease‑fire. Its pragmatic stance means it will weigh the benefits of deeper involvement against the risk of being drawn into a conflict.The diplomatic backdrop includes a postponed Trump visit to Beijing and a slated summit for mid‑May, as well as a future Xi‑to‑U.S. trip, which observers say could signal a broader alignment between the two great powers.Meanwhile, the United States continues to amass forces in the Gulf, with thousands of Marines and Army troops positioned for possible ground operations, underscoring the volatility that Pakistan and China are trying to mitigate.In sum, Dar’s Beijing mission tests whether China will remain a passive supporter or become an active broker in a war that threatens global energy markets and regional stability.