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The latest analysis shows that the US‑Israeli strike on Iran and the ensuing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could impose as much as a $1 trillion in extra costs on the global economy, even as oil majors like BP report record first‑quarter earnings. The Looming $1 Trillion Economic Burden from the Middle East Oil Crunch The conflict has tightened supplies of crude and gas, pushing prices to levels not seen since the early 2000s. 350.org, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, estimates that if the Hormuz bottleneck persists, the cumulative hit to households, businesses and governments could exceed $1 tn. Even a swift return to normal flows would still leave an added cost of roughly $600 bn. IMF‑Backed Numbers: $600 bn to $1 tn Added Costs and Oil Giants’ Double‑Digit Profit Surge Baseline cost if Hormuz reopens quickly: ~$600 bn worldwide. Worst‑case scenario (prolonged disruption): > $1 tn in extra economic burden. BP’s Q1 profit: more than doubled year‑on‑year, driven by higher oil and gas prices. Industry profit margins: some majors earning upwards of $30 m per hour from the war‑induced price spike. Why the Crisis Deepens Global Inequality and Fuels Climate Backlash The surge in energy prices ripples through food, fertilizer and transport costs, amplifying inflation in vulnerable economies. Leaders from the Marshall Islands and Malawi warned that the crisis forces emergency measures, cuts to essential services, and threatens progress on climate resilience. Activists at the Santa Marta conference highlighted the stark contrast between soaring oil profits and the growing hardship of ordinary people. What Comes Next: Calls for Windfall Taxes and Accelerated Renewable Transition 350.org and a coalition of civil‑society groups are urging governments to impose a windfall tax on excess oil profits, directing the revenue toward social protection and renewable‑energy investments. The Santa Marta gathering, attended by over 50 nations, pledged to scale up renewable deployment and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. If such policies gain traction, the next few quarters could see a shift in capital from oil majors to clean‑energy projects, reshaping the global energy landscape.

The Concept of a Salon Exhibition The gallery appears to have been set for a party. Mismatched chairs are scattered through the space – ornate gothic throne, wing-backed recliner, stackable school chair. Each points towards a white window painted on to the wall, into which one of 43 equally miscellaneous paintings has been inserted. These paintings are the other party guests, and you must decide who to sit with. Engaging with the Artworks It is a ragtag bunch, and so I decide to start with the people I recognise. But on my way to meet a portrait by Denzil Forrester of the young Haile Selassie, its surface resembling scuffed and polished stone, I am distracted by the glitter of light from a small work by Andrew Cranston. It comes from a young woman who seems to have been transplanted from Dumbarton into a glamorous late Vuillard, her coat shimmering like the scales of a fish caught by late summer sun. The Curator's Vision The host of this “salon”, and the person whose sensibility knits it together, is Matthew Higgs, director of New York’s White Columns gallery and magpie impresario. Some of these artists he has worked with for years, while others, such as Adam Keay, who contributes an oddly compelling beach scene, were invited on the strength of a chance encounter. The Experience of Discovery If you can stick it out to the 40-minute point at which things get really psychedelic, you will discover that you have attracted the attention of security guards. This is because exhibitions are not, for the most part, designed to encourage you to spend a long time in front of art works so much as move you through to the gift shop. But Higgs understands that to have a meaningful experience with a painting requires no technical expertise but only time, an open mind and, ideally, a chair.

The Lead An important Islamic seminary in Kashmir has been declared unlawful under anti-terror laws, prompting backlash from prominent religious and political leaders in the Indian-administered territory. Seminary Under Scrutiny Kashmir Divisional Commissioner Anshul Garg issued the order based on a police dossier that alleged “sustained and covert links” between the seminary, Jamia Siraj-ul-Uloom, and the banned political party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), local media reported. The seminary, one of the largest in southern Kashmir, is recognised by the Jammu and Kashmir Board of School Education and has over 800 students. The Data Analysis The seminary has more than 800 students and has “produced doctors, scholars and professionals from homes that could never afford private education”. The move was handed down under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA), a much-criticised law that allows authorities to designate someone a “terrorist” without evidence. The Impact Analysis Leaders in Muslim-majority Kashmir criticised the move as part of an ongoing campaign of overreach by New Delhi. “Declaring Jamia Siraj-ul-Uloom ‘unlawful’ under UAPA is the latest act in a calculated dismantling of Kashmir’s civic life,” wrote Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a member of Jammu and Kashmir parliament, on X. The Prediction The decision is likely to escalate tensions in the region, where Kashmiri leaders have pushed back against what they describe as a curtailing of religious and other freedoms. Kashmir voters elected local officials in 2024, in the first elections in a decade. However, most powers remain with the New Delhi-appointed lieutenant governor, including control over police, public order and the transfer and posting of officials.

The Lead Two months into the war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, much has changed for Iranian authorities and the 90 million people in the country. However, some elements of how Iran works and who controls key decisions have only become more entrenched. Leadership Changes Despite US President Donald Trump's claims of 'regime change' following the killing of several high-ranking officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the main institutions of the Islamic Republic remain in place. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the former supreme leader, was quickly elected as his successor by a clerical body. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to play a significant role in military operations, economic management, and maintaining armed control on the streets. The judiciary, parliament, and state television remain under the influence of hardline factions. Shifts in Political Position Iranian authorities have not reached a consensus to grant concessions required by Trump, as they believe it would amount to capitulation. The IRGC and traditional army remain prepared to launch missiles and drones at regional countries and US forces if necessary. Iran's latest proposal to the US is to postpone discussing the country's nuclear program. The IRGC and state media emphasize the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and managing it with Oman. Differences in Domestic Policy The Iranian establishment faces complex problems at home, including a struggling economy with high inflation and significant damage from intense bombardment. The government has prioritized procuring food and medicine, and reinstated a practice to allocate cheap currency for imports of essential goods. The average Iranian is expected to get poorer due to rampant inflation. The judiciary continues to emphasize that anyone engaging in dissent could face asset confiscation.

The Film's Premise and ExecutionPeel back the layers and sadly there is nothing much going on inside this American indie drama from director Zeshaan Younus; it's a movie that's aiming for noir, but ends up more of a shade of drab grey. It's contrived and frustrating, with a painfully pretentious voiceover by its lead character Parker (Renee Gagner). She's an actor in Los Angeles who returns to her home town after her sister Indiana (Rosie McDonald) is killed. "Sister, you were right." muses Parker. "I am never fully anything or anyone. Instead, I am practically everyone and everything."Character Development and Dialogue IssuesIt's film in which actors shot in closeup deliver lines looking pensive, with an air of meaning and depth, while not actually saying anything meaningful. Before her death, we watch Indiana brokering some kind of dodgy deal with a biker. She leaves a voicemail for Parker: "I'm in pretty deep out here ... If anything happens to me don't come looking." Which is advice promptly ignored by her sister after Indiana is killed. Instead, Parker searches for answers, although this is a film with loftier intentions than solving a murder.Visual Style and Cinematic ApproachIn places it feels like a film school project, self-conscious without much thought for the audience. There are echoes of David Lynch, though this has none of the danger or strangeness, despite some murky, atmospheric camerawork by cinematographer Justin Moore.Release InformationI've Seen All I Need to See is in UK cinemas from 1 May.

Lead: Sawe’s historic sub‑two‑hour marathon On Sunday, Sabastian Sawe became the first athlete to complete a marathon in under two hours, crossing the London finish line in 1:59:30. Race director Hugh Brasher immediately framed the achievement as the 21st‑century equivalent of Sir Roger Bannister’s four‑minute mile. Sawe shatters the two‑hour barrier at London The 2026 London Marathon saw Sawe maintain a relentless 4:33 per‑mile pace for the full 26.2 miles. He wore a lightweight 97‑gram Adidas supershoe and consumed 325 g of carbohydrates via Maurten hydrogel, eliminating the classic “wall” that stalls most marathoners. Finish time: 1:59:30 Shoe weight: 97 g (Adidas) Carb intake: 325 g (Maurten hydrogel) Previous world record: 2:01:09 (Eliud Kipchoge, 2022) Numbers that rewrite marathon history Sawe’s time slices more than a minute off the prior world record, a margin unprecedented in elite distance running. The performance also highlights the cumulative effect of three technological trends: Supershoe foam – lighter, more responsive midsoles that return up to 30 % more energy. Advanced nutrition – hydrogel carbohydrate delivery that avoids gastrointestinal distress. Training methodology – middle‑distance athletes transitioning to marathon distances earlier, boosting speed endurance. Why Sawe’s run could reshape endurance sport Beyond the headline, the sub‑two hour marathon signals a new performance ceiling. As Hugh Brasher noted, the feat creates a clear “before and after” split in marathon history, much like the 1954 mile did for middle‑distance running. The convergence of shoe tech, nutrition, and elite training suggests that sub‑two‑hour marathons may become the new benchmark for world‑class competition. Looking ahead: Faster courses, lighter gear, and the next record Coaches such as Nick Anderson predict that even faster times will emerge on flatter courses like Berlin, Chicago or Valencia, especially as shoe foams become springier and clothing lighter. The “perfect storm” – optimal temperature, minimal wind, and a deep elite field – will still be required, but the odds of breaking further minutes off the record are rising sharply. In the coming years we can expect: More athletes targeting sub‑two‑hour attempts on fast courses. Continued iteration of supershoe designs, potentially dropping shoe weight below 90 g. Further refinement of hydrogel and other carbohydrate delivery systems. Increased crossover of middle‑distance speed into marathon training programs. Sawe’s achievement not only rewrites the marathon record books; it sets the stage for a new era where the two‑hour barrier is no longer a singular miracle but a realistic target for the sport’s elite.

The UK's Shift towards Renewable Energy Renewable energy will boost the UK's national security and make the country more resilient against potential aggression or sabotage, the government's energy minister has said. Decentralized Power Systems Michael Shanks said widely dispersed wind farms and solar panels were much harder to target than large-scale fossil fuel power stations. They are also not vulnerable to supply shocks, such as the current oil crisis caused by the US-Israel war on Iran and the soaring gas prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Benefits of Renewable Energy Decentralized power systems are less of a risk of physical attack than large-scale power stations. Renewable energy can deliver energy security in an increasingly uncertain world. The Threat Landscape Shanks was speaking from Ukraine, where over the weekend he visited energy projects that the UK helped to fund. He highlighted the importance of building resilience into the Ukrainian energy system. UK's Renewable Energy Plans The Conservatives and Reform UK have pushed for more drilling in the North Sea, rather than renewables. However, the International Energy Agency has advised against new exploration licences on a commercial basis. The Future Outlook Governments from at least 56 countries are meeting in Colombia for the world's first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels. The UK's climate envoy, Rachel Kyte, is attending.

Casemiro's Future at Manchester United Michael Carrick ruled out any reversal of Casemiro's departure from Manchester United in the summer after the Brazilian scored in 's 2-1 win against Brentford. The Event Details Casemiro has impressed all season but previously announced he will leave in June after four years at the club. Carrick stated the decision will not be changed. The Impact Analysis “It's pretty clear – from both sides it's pretty clear the decision,” said the interim manager. “It's pretty clear, too, how much it means to him [playing for United] and probably the situation and the clarity of the decision has helped everything to be understandable for the supporters as well. The Prediction Manchester United, who are third, need only two points to seal Champions League qualification. If achieved, though, Carrick does not want United to stop there. “This week's been very effective in terms of the league. Champions League is one thing, but it's not something that we should be celebrating either. We want to be finishing high up the league and trying to get more points so our season doesn't get to a close when that happens.

Uncovering the Trauma of Mozambique's Civil War Lasting from 1977 to 1992, the Mozambique civil war left deep scars on the psyche of the whole nation. In his second feature, Inadelso Cossa attempts to grapple with the psychological wreckage of this harrowing period by combing through his own family history; returning to the village where he grew up, the film-maker conducts a series of interviews with his grandmother, whose testimony is rendered unreliable by her worsening dementia. The Blurred Lines Between Reality and Memory The film wavers between real and imagined truths, a liminal state echoed by the evocative cinematography. Nocturnal sequences, in which wooden sheds, grassy fields, and even Cossa’s grandmother, are wrapped in a cloak of darkness inspire a deceptive sense of calm. In the dead of night, though, the spectres of the past linger. Voices of the Past Cossa also speaks to other historical witnesses: Macuacua and Zalina, an older couple, spend much of their screen time bickering but these domestic moments are underlined with unease. A former soldier, Macuacua was once a participant in the violence against civilians but his life now, however, is marred by poverty. In a striking scene, Macuacua holds up a tree branch shaped like a rifle and reenacts a patrol route from his youth with astonishing matter-of-factness. A New Perspective on History For Cossa, history is distilled in these kinds of gestures, moving beyond linear time. Although the film is bookended by archival footage, the director prioritises non-traditional forms of documentation, such as monologues, songs, and reenactments. While this approach embodies the slipperiness of memory, it also renders the film difficult to follow on occasion. The Film's Impact But across these streams of oral history, what we find are not merely facts and figures, but feelings, in which pain and healing entwine. Where to Watch The Nights Still Smell of Gunpowder is on True Story from 1 May.