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The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about a potential global food crisis due to its impact on fertiliser supplies. The strait is a critical passage for 20% of global natural gas shipments and a third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser.The head of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, has warned that the situation is a 'food security timebomb', with the window to avert a massive global hunger crisis rapidly closing.Fertiliser prices have already risen by more than 60% in Egypt, reaching $780 (£586) a tonne, up from about $484 in late February. The Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), the world's largest single site for urea exports, has been offline for almost a month.The Middle East is the source of about 45% of the global trade in sulphur, a key raw material for fertiliser manufacture. Iran is the fourth-largest global exporter of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser.A prolonged transport shutdown could disrupt production and increase costs, leading to higher food prices and exacerbating global hunger. The world's poorest countries are among the most vulnerable to fertiliser price rises.

Recent maritime traffic reports confirm that vessels heading to Pakistan have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most crucial chokepoints for oil and cargo shipments.The transit underscores the strait’s importance for Pakistan’s trade routes, linking the nation’s ports with markets in the Gulf, Europe and beyond. Maintaining open and secure passage through this narrow passage remains essential for the stability of regional and global supply chains.

The United States has a long history of threatening to carpet bomb countries, with President Donald Trump recently warning Iran that he would bomb the country 'back to the stone ages.' This rhetoric is not new, as US leaders have made similar threats in the past.During his prime-time address to the nation, Trump said, referring to Iran: 'We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks, we're going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong.' Trump also said 'discussions are ongoing,' adding that the conflict could end over the same period.The current war on Iran began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched their attacks. Tehran hit back, targeting Israel and Gulf countries. More than 2,000 Iranians have been killed in the war so far. Thousands of civilian sites, including hospitals, schools, universities, and pharmaceutical factories, have been attacked by Israel and the US.Janina Dill, a global security professor at the University of Oxford, told Al Jazeera that if Trump's 'stone ages' threat implies that the US will destroy structures and buildings that characterise a modern society, 'then this would be illegal because it implies directing attacks against civilian objects.'The phrase 'bombing back to the stone ages' is widely associated with US Air Force officer Curtis LeMay, in the context of US threats against North Vietnam in LeMay's 1965 book, Mission with LeMay. LeMay wrote: 'We're going to bomb them back into the Stone Age.'The US carried out intensive bombing in South Vietnam, as well as in Cambodia and Laos, claiming to target enemy bases and supply routes. Overall, millions of Vietnamese soldiers and civilians were killed or wounded in the war.In January 1991, the US led a global coalition to force out Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Former US Secretary of State James Baker threatened that the US would bomb Iraq 'back to the Stone Age' if it did not withdraw from Kuwait.During World War II, the US carpet bombed Japanese cities, as well as cities in Asia that were controlled by Japanese forces. During the Korean War, the US carried out heavy bombing in North Korea, which some officials said destroyed almost every town.

The United Kingdom has taken the lead in gathering foreign ministers from 40 countries to discuss strategies for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that has been blocked by Iran's actions.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper emphasized that Iran's blockade of the waterway is threatening global economic security. The virtual meeting, which included countries like France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates, resulted in a joint statement demanding that Iran cease its attempts to block the strait and pledging to ensure safe passage through the waterway.The coalition's efforts are seen as a response to US President Donald Trump's comments that securing the strait is not the US's responsibility. The meeting is considered a first step, to be followed by working-level meetings to hammer out details.Al Jazeera's Rory Challands noted that while the coalition is broad, involving countries from various regions, there are questions about the naval capacity of these countries to enforce the reopening of the strait. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has emphasized the need for non-military solutions, and French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested that talking directly to Iran is the best approach.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had significant economic impacts, including soaring petroleum prices and disruptions to global oil supplies. There have been 23 direct attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf since the conflict began, resulting in 11 crew members killed.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General, Jassim al-Budaiwi, has urged the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to take immediate action to stop Iranian attacks on Gulf countries, which he described as a 'flagrant violation' of international law and the UN Charter.Speaking at the UNSC, al-Budaiwi called on the council to 'take all necessary measures' to bring an end to Iran's attacks on Gulf countries and to protect maritime corridors and guarantee uninterrupted maritime navigation through strategic waterways in the region.The GCC chief also emphasized the need for the six GCC states – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates – to be included in any talks or deals with Iran 'to enhance regional security and prevent further escalation or repetition of such attacks in the future.'Iran has been carrying out daily missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, including in Arab Gulf nations, since the US and Israel launched a war against the country on February 28. These attacks have struck civilian sites, including critical energy facilities, and have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key Gulf waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas supplies transit.The situation has sent global energy prices skyrocketing, and frustrations are growing across the Gulf as the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on. According to Al Jazeera's Zein Basravi, 85 percent of the projectiles fired by Iran have targeted Gulf countries, with the UAE being the hardest hit.

Iran launched a new barrage of missiles at Israel following President Donald Trump’s televised claim that Washington had "destroyed the Iranian military" and was on the brink of completing its war objectives. Trump’s address, delivered hours after he asserted that Tehran had requested a ceasefire—a claim Tehran promptly denied—also featured a pledge to "finish the job" and a statement that the core strategic goals of the United States were "nearing completion." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran holds no hostility toward the peoples of the United States, Europe or neighboring states, while urging the American public to question the motives behind the continued conflict. In Tehran, the war has intensified: US‑Israeli air campaigns continue to cause casualties and infrastructure damage, and Iranian forces persist with missile and drone counter‑attacks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that, despite receiving messages from Washington, "trust remains at zero" for any negotiation. Senior political figure Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister, was seriously wounded when a strike hit his home in Tehran, killing his wife. Kharazi had been involved in back‑channel talks through Pakistan aimed at reviving negotiations. In the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones, and a tanker off Doha sustained damage from a projectile, though no casualties were reported. President Trump publicly thanked Gulf allies, pledging that the United States would not allow them to be harmed. Within the United States, analysts such as Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute noted that Trump’s speech offered little new information, essentially summarising recent tweets and suggesting a lack of a clear operational plan. Israel’s military confirmed that its air‑defence systems were actively intercepting Iranian missiles, but the attack wounded 14 civilians, including an 11‑year‑old girl, near Tel Aviv. Israeli officials said the timeline outlined by Trump aligns with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assessment of the campaign. Regional spill‑over continued: an Israeli strike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander and at least seven civilians, while an air strike on Iraq’s Anbar province killed seven fighters and injured 13 at a military healthcare clinic. On the economic front, the World Bank expressed "extreme concern" about the conflict’s impact on inflation, employment and food security, and is consulting member states on emergency measures. Despite the turmoil, global equity markets rallied and oil prices fell after Trump’s optimistic remarks, indicating short‑term investor relief.

Ramesh Kumar, a 42‑year‑old wheat farmer in Gurdaspur, Punjab, India, is already recalculating his budget as fertiliser prices climb and deliveries become erratic.He worries that higher input costs could force him to postpone his daughter’s wedding, delay school fees for his children, or even cut back on the amount of fertiliser he applies – a decision that could lower his harvest.While the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran unfolds thousands of kilometres away, its ripple effects are felt in the fields of Punjab, Kashmir, Pakistan’s South Punjab, Bangladesh’s Rangpur and Nepal’s Gulmi district.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint linking Gulf oil and gas producers to global markets, handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions here delay the flow of natural gas used to produce nitrogen‑based fertilisers, inflating freight, insurance and ultimately fertiliser prices.South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, depends heavily on fertiliser‑intensive agriculture. In India, the sector is worth about $400 billion and employs over 46 % of the workforce; in Pakistan, it contributes close to 20 % of GDP; Bangladesh’s agriculture accounts for 12‑13 % of GDP; and Nepal relies on agriculture for roughly 24 % of its economy.Between 30 % and 35 % of India’s fertiliser imports, and up to 25‑30 % of Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s, and Nepal’s imports, travel through routes that pass the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged blockage could therefore strain supply chains across the region.Governments are attempting to reassure farmers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced expanded domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK, as well as the rollout of “Made‑in‑India Nano Urea” and solar‑powered irrigation under the PM Kusum scheme.Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture highlighted proactive monitoring, increased domestic urea and DAP output, and measures to keep fertiliser affordable.Bangladesh plans to import 500,000 tonnes of urea in the short term and is exploring alternative sources from China and Morocco, while Nepal’s agriculture ministry says supplies for the upcoming rainy season are secured, though it warns of possible shipment delays.On the ground, farmers are already adjusting. In Kashmir, mustard grower Ghulam Rasool says he reduces fertiliser use as soon as price signals rise, even before actual shortages appear. In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad fears higher costs will affect the entire community. In Bangladesh, Mohammad Ibrahim notes that fertiliser availability is becoming unpredictable, and in Nepal, Meghnath Aryal worries that delayed deliveries will hurt crop yields.These individual decisions have broader implications. Reduced fertiliser application can lower yields, which in turn pushes up food prices—a critical concern in a region where households allocate a large share of income to food.While no immediate shortage has been declared, the combination of higher global energy prices, logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical risk makes the situation volatile. Authorities in all four countries are urging farmers to supplement chemical inputs with organic alternatives such as manure, compost and green manuring.For Ramesh Kumar and millions of his peers, the distant Gulf crisis is not an abstract geopolitical story; it is a daily calculation of whether they can afford to feed their families and meet essential expenses.

A virtual gathering of over 40 countries will set the agenda for a global military planning meeting next week, focusing on clearing sea mines and rescuing vessels immobilised in the Strait of Hormuz.UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper opened the summit by condemning what she described as “Iranian recklessness” that endangers global economic security and threatens the flow of vital energy supplies.The discussions are proceeding without direct US involvement; instead, the UK, France, Germany, Australia and several Gulf states are exploring practical steps to restore access to the strategic waterway.President Donald Trump has urged nations that depend on the strait to “build up some delayed courage” and “just grab it,” a comment that has drawn criticism from UK officials.The strait transports 10‑25% of the world’s oil and gas. Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that reopening the lane “will not be easy,” given the scale of the disruption.Cooper outlined a multi‑pronged approach: diplomatic and economic pressure, reassurance for industry, insurers and energy markets, and coordinated actions to guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers.She cited more than 25 Iranian attacks on vessels, estimating around 20,000 seafarers on roughly 2,000 ships are currently stranded.Highlighting the broader stakes, Cooper referenced World Bank projections that a prolonged blockage could push 9 million people into food insecurity and trigger unsustainable spikes in oil and food prices worldwide.At a follow‑up session scheduled for Tuesday, military planners will consider how to marshal collective defensive capabilities, including the removal of mines that Tehran may have laid to sink ships.The meeting will be hosted by Britain’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, London, with many international leaders joining virtually.Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch warned President Trump not to abandon “a mess he’s made” in the Middle East, echoing former US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s dictum, “if you break it, you own it.”Reform UK’s Nigel Farage said he was not “angry” with Trump for entering the conflict but found the president’s press briefings “difficult to interpret.”Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey urged Prime Minister Starmer to “step up” plans and present a clear alternative for reopening the oil‑ and gas‑laden shipping route.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.