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JD Vance, the United States vice‑president, issued a stark warning to Tehran as he boarded Air Force Two for Pakistan: Iran must not attempt to "play" the United States at the peace talks scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad. The talks, mediated by Pakistan, could determine whether the fragile ceasefire in the region holds or if hostilities resume, with significant repercussions for the global economy, especially oil markets. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi have conditioned their participation on two unmet measures: a full ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets. Ghalibaf posted on X that "Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented." Uncertainty lingered on Friday night about whether the Iranian delegation would even travel to Islamabad. Earlier reports indicated that Israel had removed the Iranian officials from its bombing target list at Washington’s request. Meanwhile, Donald Trump amplified the tension, telling the New York Post that U.S. forces were "loading up the ships with the best ammunition" and would use them if negotiations failed. He later posted that Iran "has no cards" except short‑term extortion of international waterways. The backdrop to the talks is a worsening Lebanon‑Israel confrontation. More than 300 Lebanese civilians have been killed since the ceasefire began, and 13 Lebanese security personnel died in an Israeli strike on a government building in Nabatieh. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dispute whether the April 7 ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran includes Lebanon, and Israel continues bombing Hezbollah‑linked targets despite Netanyahu’s earlier statements about opening negotiations with the Lebanese government. Oil markets have felt the shock. The February 28 U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz—shutting off roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas—triggered a sharp price spike, adding political pressure ahead of the November U.S. congressional elections. Vance, however, expressed optimism as he departed for Islamabad: "We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be positive. If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand." He added, "If they’re going to try and play us, then they’ll find the negotiating team is not that receptive." The U.S. delegation also includes senior adviser Steve Witkoff and former senior adviser Jared Kushner, both of whom participated in earlier talks on Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes before the February attack. Negotiations are expected to focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the future of Iran’s nuclear program, potential sanctions relief, reparations for war damage, and the release of Americans detained in Iran, according to the Washington Post. Advance teams from the United States and Iran have already taken up rooms at Islamabad’s five‑star Serena hotel, with Pakistani officials acting as intermediaries. Security forces have established a two‑mile perimeter around the hotel, declared a public holiday, and locked down the city centre to ensure a safe environment for the high‑stakes mediation. Hezbollah, while not commenting directly on the Lebanese‑Israeli negotiations, issued a statement urging the Lebanese government to stop "making gratuitous concessions" and vowed to continue fighting to "expel the occupier." The Lebanese army has reinforced its presence in Beirut following an Israeli strike that killed at least 303 people. Fighting persists in southern Lebanon, with Hezbollah claiming to have struck Israeli soldiers near Bint Jbeil—a town symbolic of resistance from the 2006 war—and launching rockets into Israel throughout Friday. Israel’s airstrikes across Lebanon have intensified, culminating in the Nabatieh attack that killed the highest number of Lebanese security forces to date.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran has significantly altered the dynamics of the nuclear programme negotiations. Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have stated that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration's war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran 'balance the asymmetry of power' with the US.Alan Eyre, a former diplomat who helped negotiate the JCPOA, noted that 'this administration, to say it more politely, cannot unsoil the bed. There's no way to get back to the status quo ante before this war started.'In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, which barred Tehran from enriching its uranium to weapons-grade. Trump called the deal 'one of the worst and most one-sided transactions' the US had ever entered into.However, after a strategy of high pressure – first through returning sanctions and then, after Trump's return to power in 2025, a war that was meant to destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities – the current US administration has found itself in more complex negotiations than before its campaign of economic and military strikes.Robert Malley, a Yale lecturer who was former special envoy to Iran under Joe Biden and a lead negotiator on the JCPOA, said: 'The strait of Hormuz wasn't an issue before the US decided to strike. You have all the issues inherited from the past, but you just added a few, because the US has handed Iran a tool that it always had, but it never thought of using, or never felt it could.'The chances for a comprehensive agreement addressing all of the US and Iran's grievances appear slim. While the Obama administration sought to negotiate exclusively on Iran's nuclear programme in the lead-up to the 2015 agreement, the Trump administration has sought a broader deal limiting Iran's ballistic missiles programme and its support for regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

The piece analyzes the ripple effects of the US‑Israel war on Iran's economy, noting that heightened geopolitical tensions have led to increased sanctions and disrupted traditional trade routes. Analysts point to a growing strain on Iran's financial sector as regional instability hampers investment and complicates access to international markets. While specific figures are not disclosed, the article underscores that the economic fallout extends beyond immediate conflict zones, affecting broader Middle‑East fiscal stability.

President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that U.S. troops, aircraft and naval vessels will stay positioned around Iran until what he termed the "REAL AGREEMENT" is fully honored, warning that any failure by Tehran will trigger "bigger, better, and stronger" military action.Trump’s message, posted late Wednesday, underscores Washington’s demand that Iran abandon any nuclear weapons ambitions and guarantee safe passage through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. He added that U.S. forces are "loading up and resting, looking forward to its next conquest," a rhetoric that heightens concerns of a rapid escalation.The announcement follows a two‑week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan that paused six weeks of combat and briefly steadied global markets worried about disruptions to oil shipments through Hormuz. However, the truce remains precarious.Iranian semi‑official outlets ISNA and Tasnim released a chart suggesting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had laid sea mines in the strait, marking a "danger zone" that forced some vessels to navigate farther north near Larak Island. The chart, dated Feb. 28 to Apr. 9, leaves it unclear whether the mines have been cleared.On the ground in Tehran, public sentiment is deeply skeptical. One woman told Al Jazeera that any day without bloodshed would be "very good," while another dismissed the ceasefire as meaningless while Israel continues its bombardment of Lebanon. A third resident called the truce "a theatrical show" orchestrated by Trump.Negotiations are further complicated by Tehran’s rejection of a sweeping U.S. proposal. Iran insists on an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the lifting of sanctions—conditions Washington has yet to accept.Despite the uncertainty, Iranian officials hinted at a diplomatic push: Ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam announced on X that a delegation would arrive in Islamabad for talks based on ten Iranian‑proposed points, though he later deleted the post. Pakistan’s capital simultaneously announced two days of unannounced holidays, adding to the opacity.Israel has intensified its campaign in Lebanon, killing at least 182 people in a single day, which Tehran warns could render further negotiations "unreasonable" under the current circumstances.In Washington, opposition to the conflict is mounting. Senator Cory Booker announced that Democrats intend to invoke the War Powers Resolution to force a congressional vote, condemning Trump’s actions as "unauthorised" and "reckless war‑mongering" that the American public does not support.The convergence of U.S. military posturing, Iranian skepticism, Israeli escalation, and domestic political pressure creates a volatile environment where the fragile ceasefire could unravel, threatening regional security and global energy markets.

US President Donald Trump has announced that countries supplying Iran with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs on all goods sold to the United States, with no exemptions. This move comes hours after Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Tehran.In a social media post, Trump stated that 'A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!'However, experts have raised questions about the legal authority behind Trump's announcement, as the Supreme Court struck down his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad global tariffs in February. The IEEPA has been used extensively for decades to back financial sanctions against Iran, Russia, and North Korea.Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera that 'it's a lot more complicated to do that after IEEPA was struck down. There's no immediate policy lever and authorisation that is available for the US to do that. So they need either an act of Congress or need to adapt some other trade tool.'Trump did not specify which countries could face punitive tariffs, but China and Russia have helped Iran build military capacity to counter US and Israeli pressure. The US imports from Russia have fallen sharply since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the wave of financial sanctions imposed on Moscow.Josh Lipsky, vice president and chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, said that 'this is a China-related threat, the way I read it. And China will read it that way.' However, he also noted that Trump was unlikely to follow through with new tariffs in the near term because that would derail his planned trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May.

Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party, has made a strong call to action for the UK government to withdraw its trade agreement with Israel in light of the recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Polanski expressed his concerns about Israel's actions, accusing them of 'behaving in a completely uncontrolled way.'During the launch of the Green party's local election campaign in London, Polanski urged the government to take a firmer stance against Israel, stating that it is 'outrageous that Israel is still enjoying diplomatic and trade privileges from the international community.' He emphasized the need for robust sanctions against Israel and an end to the 'genocide.'Polanski also criticized the UK government's claim of not being involved in the conflict with Iran, arguing that its bases had been used to aid US bombers attacking Iran. He called for the disentanglement of UK and US military operations and a ban on the US using UK airspace.When asked about the economic implications of ending the trade deal with Israel, Polanski prioritized human lives over financial concerns, stating that the UK should not put 'a cost on people's lives.'In addition to his comments on Israel, Polanski criticized Labour's housing policies, arguing that Green-run councils would focus on building new council houses and 'stand up' to property developers who resist building affordable homes. He accused Labour councils of building 'luxury, unaffordable buildings that no one's ever going to live in.'Labour responded by accusing Green party councillors of trying to block 42,000 homes across the country since 2018 and said they were not delivering social rented housing in areas where they were in power.

Europe is undergoing a significant transformation in its relationship with the US, marked by a growing desire for independence and a shift away from Trump's aggressive policies. The recent crisis in the Middle East, where Trump's threat to annihilate Iranian civilisation was temporarily called off, has been a turning point in this journey. Initially, many European leaders had tacitly supported the US and Israeli attack on Iran, driven by a desire for a transatlantic detente and antipathy towards the Iranian regime. However, as the war escalated, Europe's stance began to shift, with countries like Italy, Poland, and France taking steps to distance themselves from Trump's policies. The cooling of European support for the war has taken various forms, including Italy denying US warplanes permission to use an airbase in Sicily, Poland refusing to send Patriot air defence systems to the Middle East, and France rejecting overflight rights and opposing a US-sponsored resolution at the UN security council. This shift in European policy is driven by a number of factors, including the realisation that the war has been a windfall for Russia, through higher oil prices and a depletion of air defence interceptors available to Ukraine. European leaders have also been reminded that the erosion of international law is bad news for the world, Europe included. As Europe finds its footing in distancing itself from Trump, it may also find its voice. Europe's diplomatic role in the Iranian nuclear file in the early 2000s grew out of its opposition to the Iraq war. Today, the same dynamic could unfold, with Europe promoting a permanent end of hostilities and a multilateral initiative in the region. The proposal by a group of European, Gulf, and Asian countries to contribute to ensuring safe passage through the strait of Hormuz was originally aimed at placating Trump. Europeans then backed a UN-led fertiliser corridor to prevent a food crisis in the global south. The UK is also leading a coalition of more than 40 countries seeking to reopen the strait once the US and Israel definitively end their offensive. If a sustainable reopening of Hormuz succeeds, it could eventually extend to a new nuclear agreement, a non-aggression pact between the US and Iran, and a similar one between Israel and Iran – including Lebanon. It could involve the release of Iranian funds frozen abroad to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by US and Israeli attacks, and the selective lifting of EU and US sanctions.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Iran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz and talks set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agreement was reached after a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and pressure from China.Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured for two weeks through coordination with the country's armed forces. Under the agreement, Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge transit fees on passing ships, with Tehran planning to use the revenue for post-war reconstruction.The ceasefire was agreed upon just an hour before US President Donald Trump's deadline to escalate the conflict expired. Trump's move followed a request from Pakistan's Prime Minister, who urged Washington to extend its deadline for a deal and called on Iran to reopen the strait. The breakthrough came after talks with Pakistan's leadership, which had pushed for a ceasefire.Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan, which includes lifting sanctions, creating a war-loss fund, a potential US troop withdrawal from the Gulf, and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium in exchange for a pledge not to build nuclear weapons. However, it is unclear whether the US has agreed to any of these proposals.The ceasefire has triggered street celebrations in Tehran and Baghdad, with Iranian leaders declaring the conflict is ending 'on Iran's terms'. However, some citizens remain skeptical, warning the US and Israel may be using the pause to 'buy time' and regroup.The agreement has also had an impact on the global economy, with crude prices falling below $100 after Trump's announcement. However, analysts remain cautious, with markets in 'wait-and-see mode' as a 'big gap' remains in negotiations.