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The quiet evening in the Israeli kibbutz of Cabri, just five miles from the Lebanon border, was shattered by the sound of air raid sirens. The residents, including the Moria family, rushed to a reinforced safe room as Iron Dome interceptors were launched to counter incoming rockets from Hezbollah.The ceasefire-defying attack by Israel that killed over 300 people in Lebanon has reignited the conflict. Despite hopes that the Iran ceasefire might bring an end to Hezbollah's rocket fire, the situation remains fragile. 1,164 rockets have been fired into Israel since March 2, at a rate of about 30 a day, according to the Alma Center thinktank.Residents of Cabri describe a life of constant risk management, with every decision to leave home, work in the fields, or walk a dog influenced by the threat of attack. The conflict has resulted in over 1,700 recorded deaths in Lebanon since early March, with a smaller but significant number of civilian casualties in Israel.Moshe Davidovich, chief of the local Mate Asher Regional Council, supports Israel's continued war in Lebanon, citing the need to counter Hezbollah's threats. In contrast, Amir Yarchi, a kibbutz resident, argues that a military solution is unrealistic and could lead to an endless war.The situation highlights the complexity of achieving peace in the region, with international engagement and support for the Lebanese government seen as potential pathways to stability. However, with 79% of Israelis supporting continued strikes into Lebanon, finding a lasting solution remains a significant challenge.

The New Economics Foundation (NEF) has proposed that the UK government provide subsidized energy to all households, funded through North Sea tax revenues. The plan would ensure that every household receives a set amount of energy at current rates, helping to protect the poorest households from rising energy costs.According to NEF, providing enough energy to heat two rooms, provide hot water, and run key appliances like a fridge and washing machine at frozen rates would require a subsidy of about £4.5bn. This amount is roughly equal to the expected windfall in tax revenues from the North Sea, generated by the high price of oil.The proposed measure, known as a price guarantee, would save all households more than £160 on their annual bills. However, this would amount to a saving of about 17% for those on low incomes compared with 11% for wealthier people. NEF argues that this would encourage those who can afford to pay to reduce their energy consumption and invest in energy-efficient measures.Alex Chapman, a senior economist at NEF, stated that similar measures have been successfully implemented in countries like Japan, South Korea, China, and India, as well as several European countries. He emphasized the need for the government to protect households' ability to meet their essential energy needs and to tax energy companies on their windfall profits.The energy cap is expected to rise by about £388 in July and could reach nearly £2,000 a year for dual-fuel households. NEF's proposal aims to mitigate the impact of rising energy costs on vulnerable households.

The UK's declining birthrate has been a growing concern in recent years, with long-term fiscal pressures expected to arise from supporting an ageing population. A new report by the Resolution Foundation thinktank, titled 'Bye Bye Baby', suggests that politicians should prioritize tackling housing affordability to encourage young people to have more children.The report highlights a significant shift in the proportion of women who are not yet mothers by age 30, rising from 48% for those born in the late 1980s to 58% for those born in the early 1990s. This trend is most pronounced among non-graduate women aged 25-29, with more than half (54%) having no children by 2023, up from one in three in 2011.The analysis attributes this shift to falling partnership rates and a major shift away from home ownership towards costly private renting and living with parents, making it harder for young people to start a family. The share of non-graduates in their late 20s in private rented accommodation has doubled to 33% in 2023-24, while home ownership has halved over the same period.The thinktank's research suggests that financial constraints play a significant role in young people's decisions to have children. Among 32-year-olds who are not yet parents, twice the proportion of those in the lowest quarter of earners said they intended to remain permanently childless, compared with those in the top quarter of earners.Politicians have proposed various policies to encourage young people to have children, including expanding free childcare and introducing married tax allowances. However, the Resolution Foundation's research suggests that focusing on housing struggles may be a more successful approach.“Deciding whether to have children is a deeply personal choice, but it’s clear that financial constraints are at play too,” said Charlie McCurdy, senior economist at the thinktank. “Policymakers should look to address the financial barriers that are hindering young people’s ability to start a family – such as increasing housing affordability and opportunities to get on the housing ladder – to make parenthood more achievable for those who want it.”

The UK government is facing growing pressure to address the looming energy crisis sparked by the Iran war. Despite the £117-a-year cut to household utility bills announced in the autumn budget, energy costs are expected to rise again in the summer. The latest forecast from consultancy Cornwall Insight estimates the cost of a dual-fuel bill will rise by 17.6% from July.Labour ministers have been urging people to 'keep calm and carry on,' but critics argue that this message may be underplaying the scale of the challenges ahead. Andrew Sissons, director of the climate programme at Nesta, says the reality is that the global supply of oil and gas is going to be down by maybe 20%, and everybody needs to consume less.The government is trying to balance the need to address the cost of living crisis with the risk of sowing panic and denting consumer confidence. However, experts argue that a more nuanced message, such as 'keep calm but cut down,' could be more effective in encouraging people to reduce their energy consumption.Jill Rutter, of the Institute for Government thinktank, suggests that people can take steps to manage down their consumption, such as being more efficient and switching to clean electricity. The government is also facing pressure to reconsider its plans to reverse the Tories' 5p cut to fuel duty.As the conflict continues, the 'keep calm and carry on' message may sound increasingly adrift from reality. The government must navigate the challenges of addressing the energy crisis while avoiding panic and maintaining consumer confidence.

The UK hospitality sector is bracing for significant job cuts and business closures as cost increases from new business rates and higher wage bills come into effect. An industry-wide survey of 20,000 hospitality businesses found that 64% of firms plan to cut jobs, 42% intend to reduce trading hours, and one in seven will be forced to close.The increased costs are attributed to changes announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves at the November budget, including increases to the national living wage and national minimum wage, which are expected to result in an extra £1.4bn in costs for the sector. Additionally, changes to business rates will see the average hotel in England facing an increase of £28,900 more this year (up 30%), while the average restaurant can expect a 15% increase worth £1,800.The trade bodies, including UKHospitality and the British Beer and Pub Association, have warned that the conflict in the Middle East will accelerate the impact of rising wage and tax costs, with energy bills expected to rise steeply. The economic shock wave caused by the war in the Middle East has pushed economic confidence to an all-time low, according to new figures from the Institute of Directors (IoD).The IoD's Economic Confidence Index fell to its lowest ever score of -76 in March, with business directors citing labour bills, supply chain inflation, and energy as the biggest drivers of cost increases over the next 12 months. The thinktank estimates that UK companies invest the equivalent of 11.1% of GDP, well behind countries such as Japan at 18.2%, and European nations including France, at 12.7%, and Germany, at 12%.

Gulf countries are increasingly concerned about the threat posed by Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups in the region. These groups, which include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have been used by Iran as a pillar of its foreign and security policy for decades.In a joint statement, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan condemned Iranian attacks on their soil, both as strikes carried out directly from Iran and “through their proxies and armed factions they support in the region”. The statement also called on the Iraqi government to take measures to halt attacks launched by factions, militias, and armed groups from Iraqi territory.Kuwait recently foiled a plot to kill state leaders and arrested six suspects believed to be associated with Hezbollah. The Houthis also confirmed they had launched a missile strike on Israel, the first time the proxy group have admitted involvement in the war in the Middle East.The threat of these groups is seen as particularly worrying for countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which have a history of Iran-backed militia carrying out violent attacks. Analysts warn that the presence and danger of Iranian proxy groups in the Gulf had not reached levels anything close to those during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, but the threat remains greater the longer the conflict with Iran drags on.Bilal Saab, a senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank, said: “If this war escalates, the worst-case scenario for the Gulf countries is Iran activating their sleeper cells and these Shia militia movements in the region. We could see a whole lot more if things really escalate.”

The deadly conflict in Iran has precipitated what the International Energy Agency describes as the worst oil crisis in history, creating a complex situation for global clean energy efforts. While climate advocates are calling for accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, the war simultaneously presents both opportunities and significant challenges for renewable energy development.US-Israeli strikes on Iran have critically disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime channel through which 20% of global oil flows. The conflict has also seen direct attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure by all parties involved, creating additional market shocks and uncertainty.Interestingly, reduced reliance on oil and gas is proving beneficial for some regions navigating the ongoing fuel crisis. As Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy at Oxford University, explains: Electricity generated from wind and solar is largely insulated from fossil fuel price volatility – once built, the fuel is free.Countries with substantial renewable energy investments are demonstrating greater resilience. Spain and Portugal have witnessed electricity prices decline in recent weeks, while Pakistan has experienced a surge in rooftop solar installations over the past five years, helping the nation weather oil and gas market disruptions.The electric vehicle revolution is also providing some economies with protection against gasoline price increases. In China, more than 50% of all new cars sold are electric, while in Nepal, that figure reaches an impressive 70%.However, the war is creating near-term challenges that could impede clean energy growth. The conflict has disrupted transport routes for metals essential in solar panel construction, particularly aluminum. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production, and regional producers have begun scaling back operations amid the hostilities.Furthermore, the inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict pose significant hurdles for renewable energy projects, which require substantial upfront investment for construction, equipment, and installation.Paradoxically, the war and resulting energy shocks have provided a short-term boon for fossil fuels, including coal. Many Asian countries heavily reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are burning more coal to meet energy demand as LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz become constrained.The conflict has also incentivized increased oil and gas drilling and exploration, as countries scramble to replace disrupted LNG supplies and higher prices make previously unviable projects economically viable. US company Venture Global recently announced a new five-year contract to supply LNG, while Canadian energy company TC Energy indicated that Iran war disruptions are increasing the likelihood of expanding a massive LNG export facility.The Trump administration has further incentivized oil expansion, recently announcing plans to pay a French company $1 billion to abandon offshore wind farm projects in favor of fossil fuel initiatives.Experts propose various policy responses to encourage the green transition during this crisis. Rosenow advocates for tax reform to reduce the disproportionate burden on electricity compared to gas. Professor Gregor Semieniuk suggests imposing windfall taxes on oil and gas companies during the war, while Lauren Pagel of Earthworks calls for ending fossil fuel subsidies and making polluters pay for their environmental impact.Despite the current challenges, Kingsmill Bond, a strategist for the energy thinktank Ember, maintains that this crisis could ultimately accelerate the clean energy transition: This is the first oil shock in history where oil faces a superior alternative. Solar, wind and EV are cheaper, local, faster to deploy, and huge.

A newly launched green thinktank, Verdant, proposes that a 'Doge of the left' could save UK taxpayers up to £30bn annually by rooting out waste, fraud, and tax avoidance. This initiative is part of a broader effort to influence the future manifesto of the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski.The thinktank, co-chaired by James Meadway, a former adviser to Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell, and civil society campaigner Deborah Doane, argues that a crackdown on waste could free up significant resources. This approach differs from the ideologically driven methods of Elon Musk's former Department of Government Efficiency in the US.Meadway emphasized that the political right has monopolized discussions about savings in government spending, leading to disastrous effects. He stated that a 'Doge of the left' would focus on eliminating tax avoiders, profiteers, and fraudsters, ultimately delivering high-quality public services.The report suggests several measures, including:Appointing a 'chief savings officer' to identify waste and fraud.Granting the National Audit Office the power to halt overspending projects.Opening public procurement to more transparent competition.Establishing an internal consultancy function to reduce reliance on costly private consultants.The proposed £30bn in savings is largely based on independent estimates of annual losses due to fraud, waste, under-collection of tax, and lack of competition in procurement. Additionally, Verdant recommends scrapping £3.6bn in tax reliefs and government support for oil and gas producers.Polanski's economic policy speech last week highlighted sweeping changes, including rent caps and a new wealth tax. He also emphasized the importance of protecting consumers from rising energy prices and expressed skepticism about using GDP as a measure of economic performance.

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has significant implications for the UK economy, with the potential to plunge the country into a severe energy crisis. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for oil, is now rendered unsafe due to Iranian drones and mines, threatening to disrupt global fuel supplies. Historically, the UK has faced similar challenges, such as during the Suez crisis 70 years ago, when petrol rationing was introduced. Former BP executive Nick Butler warns that if the crisis persists, the UK could be just weeks away from needing to ration fuel, with critical users like emergency services being prioritized. The economic consequences of such a crisis are far-reaching. A sustained energy crisis could push up average British household energy bills by £500, according to the Resolution Foundation thinktank. This would further exacerbate the cost of living crisis, which has already seen inflationary shocks and a backlash against incumbents. The UK government faces difficult decisions. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already taken steps to help 1.7 million households reliant on oil for heating and hot water, whose bills have doubled. However, her warning that financial help will be targeted at lower earners suggests that harder decisions lie ahead. In the long term, the UK must consider investing in net zero initiatives to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Modelling by the government's expert Climate Change Committee suggests that if Britain sticks to its net zero path, even a substantial oil shock would raise energy bills by only 4% by 2040. However, implementing such policies in the midst of a crisis is a challenging task.