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The quiet evening in the Israeli kibbutz of Cabri, just five miles from the Lebanon border, was shattered by the sound of air raid sirens. The residents, including the Moria family, rushed to a reinforced safe room as Iron Dome interceptors were launched to counter incoming rockets from Hezbollah.The ceasefire-defying attack by Israel that killed over 300 people in Lebanon has reignited the conflict. Despite hopes that the Iran ceasefire might bring an end to Hezbollah's rocket fire, the situation remains fragile. 1,164 rockets have been fired into Israel since March 2, at a rate of about 30 a day, according to the Alma Center thinktank.Residents of Cabri describe a life of constant risk management, with every decision to leave home, work in the fields, or walk a dog influenced by the threat of attack. The conflict has resulted in over 1,700 recorded deaths in Lebanon since early March, with a smaller but significant number of civilian casualties in Israel.Moshe Davidovich, chief of the local Mate Asher Regional Council, supports Israel's continued war in Lebanon, citing the need to counter Hezbollah's threats. In contrast, Amir Yarchi, a kibbutz resident, argues that a military solution is unrealistic and could lead to an endless war.The situation highlights the complexity of achieving peace in the region, with international engagement and support for the Lebanese government seen as potential pathways to stability. However, with 79% of Israelis supporting continued strikes into Lebanon, finding a lasting solution remains a significant challenge.

Jonathan Freedland contends that the record of Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent wartime conduct is one of stark failure, despite the spotlight it has received alongside former U.S. President Donald Trump.While Trump has dominated headlines with his rhetoric on Iran and a self‑announced cease‑fire, Netanyahu has quietly overseen a continuation of hostilities across the region. Israel’s air campaign on Lebanon—the most lethal single strike in recent memory—targeted roughly 100 sites in a ten‑minute window, leaving at least 303 dead and more than 1,150 injured, many of them civilians.Israel maintains that the U.S.‑brokered deal with Tehran does not extend to Lebanon, a claim disputed by Iran and Pakistani mediators. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has pledged to sustain “full‑force” attacks on what Israel labels Hezbollah launch positions, even as he publicly agrees to diplomatic talks with Beirut.Internationally, Netanyahu is already wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Gaza, and his reputation abroad is that of a war‑time villain. Domestically, his supporters still view him as a security hawk, a perception that matters most as Israel faces elections no later than 27 October.Freedland highlights that the October 7, 2023 Hamas onslaught—Israel’s deadliest terrorist attack—occurred under Netanyahu’s watch, a fact that would have toppled most leaders in comparable democracies. Yet the prime minister promised “total victory” over Hamas, a promise that remains unfulfilled after a two‑year bombardment that has claimed roughly 70,000 lives in Gaza while leaving Hamas in control of the enclave’s unoccupied areas.Claims of having neutralised Hezbollah have also proved hollow. Although Israel announced the death of the group’s leader, Hezbollah continues to rebuild its arsenal and resumed rocket fire, undermining the narrative of a decisive Israeli triumph.Similarly, the 12‑day 2025‑2026 confrontation with Iran—branded by Trump as an obliteration of Tehran’s nuclear programme and by Netanyahu as a historic victory—has not diminished Iran’s strategic capabilities. The nation still possesses enriched uranium, a robust missile stockpile, and the ability to threaten global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively holding a lever over the world economy.Freedland argues that Netanyahu’s doctrine of perpetual military pressure yields only temporary relief, likening it to repeatedly cutting off a snake’s head only for it to regrow. Former Israeli general‑turned‑politician Yair Golan is quoted as saying that Netanyahu “does not know how to translate battlefield successes into lasting political security.”The human cost of this approach is evident not only in the casualties of Gaza, the Bekaa Valley and Israeli cities, but also in Israel’s deteriorating diplomatic standing. Recent legislation in the Knesset—pushed by far‑right minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir and supported by Netanyahu—introduces a death‑penalty provision for Palestinians convicted of terrorism, a move condemned internationally as discriminatory.As Israelis endure nightly bomb‑shelter drills and semi‑lockdown conditions, the electorate faces a stark choice. Polls suggest that even if Netanyahu is ousted, his successor may continue a similar hard‑line stance, albeit with different execution. Freedland concludes that Israel’s long‑term security cannot rely solely on force; a negotiated accommodation with neighbours, especially the Palestinians, may finally become politically viable after the exposure of Netanyahu’s repeated strategic failures.

Residents of Tehran and much of Iran are breathing a sigh of relief after a two-week ceasefire was announced, bringing an end to daily bombardments. The ceasefire, agreed upon by Iran and the US with mediation from Pakistan, has allowed some traffic to return to the streets of the Iranian capital during daylight hours.Despite the temporary reprieve, Tehran remains far from its usual bustling state, having been targeted by several thousand munitions since February 28. The Iranian capital is home to more than 10 million people. Air defence systems were activated for short periods several times since the ceasefire was announced overnight, but there were no reports of impacts or any official explanation for the activations.People across Tehran are debating whether the ceasefire will hold and what the future may hold for them. A young man noted, “Looks like the ceasefire will continue. I heard the Israelis are opening up their airspace more,” referring to an announcement by Israeli authorities that flights will resume from Ben Gurion Airport.However, others are more pessimistic, especially after two critical islands off southern Iran were attacked on Wednesday morning, hitting oil facilities. It is unclear who was behind the attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it shot down a drone in the southern province of Fars.Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain also reported attacks on their territories by missiles and drones from Iran, with Iranian state television confirming this was in retaliation for the post-ceasefire oil attacks. Tehran said it was ready to restart military operations if attacked again.On Tuesday, Iranians had been worried about the targeting of critical civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, after a threat from US President Donald Trump to end “civilisation” in a country with one of the world’s oldest civilisations. The ceasefire was announced shortly before the midnight GMT deadline that Trump had set for an agreement to be reached.The Israeli military intensified its attacks in the hours preceding the ceasefire, hitting electricity outposts, bridges, and the railway network. Warplanes also struck the Iranian Aluminium Company in Arak, damaging the country’s largest aluminium production facility.Even after the ceasefire, Israel continued attacking Lebanon, killing more than 250 people in a devastating day of attacks on Wednesday. Israel said it was targeting Iran’s ally Hezbollah, but civilian locations across Lebanon were hit.Trump hailed what he described as a decisive victory against Iran while announcing the ceasefire, but his top general emphasised that the deal only signifies a pause and combat operations could start once again if no final deal is reached. The US military said it struck 13,000 targets across Iran in less than six weeks of war.In Iran, similar proclamations of victory and celebrations were broadcast from Iranian state television. A statement from the Supreme National Security Council urged supporters of the government to trust in the system and refrain from making “divisive commentary”.The council also stressed that affairs were being overseen by Mojtaba Khamenei, who was declared Iran’s supreme leader after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war on February 28.

Vice President JD Vance warned Iran that jeopardising the US‑Iran ceasefire over Lebanon would be "dumb", emphasizing that the United States expects the truce to remain intact despite Tehran’s frustrations. Pakistan, which brokered the two‑week ceasefire, publicly stated that Lebanon is part of the agreement. Vance, speaking to reporters in Hungary, countered that the United States does not consider Israel’s ongoing strikes on Lebanon as covered by the ceasefire. "If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart – in a conflict where they were getting hammered – over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice," Vance said, adding, "We think that would be dumb, but that’s their choice." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed Pakistan’s position, highlighting Lebanon in his repost of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s statement and asserting that the ceasefire terms are clear: the US must choose either a ceasefire or continued war via Israel. President Donald Trump and the White House, however, maintain that Lebanon was not part of the deal. Vance dismissed the contradictory messages as a "misunderstanding" and "bad faith propaganda," suggesting the Iranians mistakenly believed Lebanon was included. The lack of a clear explanation from US officials leaves observers questioning how such a misunderstanding could arise amid high‑stakes diplomacy. Israel’s track record of breaching ceasefires dates back to the November 2024 truce with Lebanon. On Wednesday, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon killed at least 254 people and injured more than 1,100, marking one of the deadliest assaults in the 15‑month conflict. Vance indicated that Israel has signaled a willingness to temper its operations in Lebanon, stating the Israelis have "committed to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon" to ensure the US‑Iran negotiations stay on track. The broader conflict intensified in early March after Hezbollah launched rockets in retaliation for Israeli attacks and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah now faces internal pressure from rival factions accusing it of dragging Lebanon into war on Iran’s behalf. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a stark warning: if Israeli aggression against Lebanon does not cease immediately, the IRGC will deliver a "regretful response" to what it called "evil aggressors" in the region.

Israel's conflict with Iran has ended in a strategic failure for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the war achieving none of its main goals and damaging Israel's global standing.Despite years of threats and diplomatic pressure, Israel's war with Iran has resulted in a fragile and vague ceasefire, with Iran's regime still intact and its military assets significant.The US intelligence community had deemed Israeli predictions of regime change and revolution in Iran as 'farcical', and Netanyahu's assessment that the war would be short-lived proved woefully wide of the mark.Netanyahu's insistence on continuing attacks in southern Lebanon appears hubristic, and Israel's actions have been criticized by opposition leaders, including Yair Lapid and Yair Golan, who have called the ceasefire a 'strategic failure'.The reality is that Netanyahu gambled everything on his war and failed to secure the fall of the Iranian regime, the seizure of Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or meaningful state degradation.Instead, Israel's global standing has been damaged, and its role in pushing the US to war in Iran has been assailed by both progressives and the far right in America.The domestic fallout for Netanyahu in an election year in Israel will be significant, with many Israelis likely to question his ability to deliver on his promises of security and victory.

Amid growing international focus on the Iran‑Israel conflict, Israel is pressing ahead with a systematic annexation of the West Bank, centred on the contentious E1 settlement project. The plan envisions the construction of 3,400 new homes on Palestinian land, a move designed to split the territory and undermine the viability of a future Palestinian state. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly condemned the annexation drive, labeling the E1 scheme illegal. Although the war in Iran and Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon have delayed the release of construction tenders, officials confirm that the tenders will be issued on 1 June. Criticism from the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy has so far failed to deter the Israeli government, which appears accustomed to rhetorical rebukes without concrete repercussions. As former EU officials note, the Union has yet to leverage its economic and diplomatic weight to stop the settlement expansion. The British Prime Minister has reaffirmed the stance of the International Court of Justice, declaring the 1967 occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank unlawful. This follows the United Kingdom’s formal recognition of the State of Palestine last year, alongside France, Canada and Australia. Given its historic ties and recent diplomatic recognitions, the UK is uniquely positioned to galvanise European and Commonwealth partners. Experts propose a three‑pronged approach: first, issue a clear warning that any contractor involved in designing, building or financing the E1 settlement jeopardises its commercial interests with the UK; second, impose a comprehensive ban on UK trade in goods, services and investment linked to the settlements; and third, suspend the trade concessions granted under the UK‑Israel trade and partnership agreement for breaching its human‑rights provisions. New Prime Minister Keir Starmer is urged to embed these measures within a broader strategy to strengthen European cooperation, champion equal rights, and secure mutual security for Israelis and Palestinians. Without enforceable consequences, the illegal settlement programme is likely to expand, heightening the risk of further violence. Vincent Fean – former consul‑general in JerusalemDavid Hannay – former UN ambassadorAnn Grant – former high commissioner to South AfricaEmyr Jones Parry – former UN ambassadorDavid Manning – former US ambassadorDavid Richmond – former FCO director generalPeter Westmacott – former US ambassadorJeremy Greenstock – former UN ambassadorFrances Guy – former Lebanon ambassadorPeter Millett – former Jordan ambassadorDerek Plumbly – former Egypt ambassadorEdward Clay – former Kenya high commissionerTony Brenton – former Russia ambassadorWilliam Patey – former Afghanistan ambassadorColin Budd – former Netherlands ambassadorAnthony Cary – former Canada high commissionerAlan Charlton – former Brazil ambassadorEdward Chaplin – former Iraq and Jordan ambassadorPeter Collecott – former Brazil ambassadorRichard Dalton – former Iran ambassadorMichael Hone – former Iceland ambassadorNicholas Hopton – former Iran ambassadorPeter Jenkins – former UN (Vienna) ambassadorRupert Joy – former EU ambassador to MoroccoRobin Kealy – former Tunisia ambassadorRobin Lamb – former Bahrain ambassadorAnthony Layden – former Morocco ambassadorRichard Makepeace – former UAE ambassadorMark Matthews – former Chad ambassadorRichard Northern – former Libya ambassadorChristopher Segar – former Iraq ambassadorAdrian Sindall – former Syria ambassador

The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the consequences of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's promise of an 'easy' war. When Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in December, he came with an appeal and a subtle inducement.Netanyahu had suggested a final benefit to Trump: defeating Iran would allow Israel to wean itself off its massive reliance on US military aid. However, the reality of the conflict has been far from easy, with Iran's resilient regime and the ongoing Middle East war showing no signs of abating.The conflict has also had significant implications for global diplomacy, with Emmanuel Macron reflecting a widespread view that US and Israeli strikes on Iran would not provide a durable solution to Tehran's nuclear program. The war has undermined Nato and potentially emboldened China, Russia, and North Korea.The conflict has also led to a decline in support for Israel globally, with polls showing a decline in support for Israel across the political spectrum in the US, particularly among Democrats and young voters. A Gallup survey released recently showed that Americans are more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israelis for the first time since Gallup began measuring that question in 2001.

Analysts say that more than two years of relentless campaigns against Gaza, the Houthis, Lebanon and now Iran have reshaped Israel’s politics, economy and social fabric.Washington, rather than Jerusalem, is likely to decide the ultimate outcome of the conflict that Israeli leaders describe as an “existential battle” with Tehran.According to the Bank of Israel, the cumulative cost of these wars has reached 352 billion shekels (about $112 bn), which translates to roughly 300 million shekels ($96 m) per day. The financial pressure is compounded by the International Court of Justice hearing credible genocide accusations and the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for the prime minister and a former defence minister.Domestically, Israelis endure frequent air‑raid alerts and school closures, while many families juggle work and shelter duties. Yet a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute in late March showed that 78 % of Jewish Israelis still support continuing the war, even as a majority doubt that Washington and Israeli planners have fully grasped Tehran’s capabilities.Political commentator Dahlia Scheindlin told Al Jazeera that a “graveness” has settled over the population, noting a grim determination to press on despite exhaustion.Israel’s right‑wing coalition, led by figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir and ultra‑Orthodox Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has pushed through a controversial death‑penalty law targeting Palestinians and approved a record $271 bn budget. The budget allocates substantial funds to ultra‑Orthodox and settler communities, a move described by critics as an attempt to shore up Prime Minister Netanyahu’s waning support.Internationally, the United Nations, European Union and several Muslim‑majority states have condemned the new death‑penalty legislation, though Israel has so far avoided direct sanctions.Economists warn that the war’s fiscal impact extends beyond defence spending. A Le Monde analysis highlighted rising defence outlays, lost productivity from reservist mobilisation, and dampened consumer activity. While temporary tax cuts have mitigated fuel‑price spikes caused by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, political economist Shir Hever cautions that Israel’s reliance on imported fuel means any relief is short‑lived.Hever likens the current economic trajectory to that of a “totalitarian state,” where military expenses are pursued arbitrarily, ignoring broader economic stability.Ultimately, the war’s duration may hinge more on U.S. policy than Israeli strategy. When asked by Newsmax about progress toward its goals, Prime Minister Netanyahu could only claim the effort was “halfway” achieved.

Eight Muslim-majority countries, including Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have issued a joint statement strongly condemning Israel's one-sided bill to impose the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks.The countries expressed deep concern over the conditions of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli detention, warning of mounting risks amid reports of ongoing abuses, including torture, inhumane and degrading treatment, starvation, and the denial of basic rights.Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed the controversial bill on Monday, a one-sided law that will not impose the same penalty on Jewish Israelis convicted of killings. The law has been criticized by the United Nations and the European Union, but Israel's ally, the United States, came out in support of its sovereign right to determine its own laws.The eight countries also cautioned against measures by Israel that risk further inflaming tensions on the ground, stating that these practices reflect a broader pattern of violations against the Palestinian people.