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The Prediction Platform's Meteoric Rise Polymarket, the online prediction platform that hosts bets on events such as the Iran war, is in talks to raise $400m (£296m) at a valuation of up to $15bn. This latest fundraising round would represent a significant two-thirds increase on the company's previous valuation, underscoring the rapid growth and increasing influence of prediction markets in the financial landscape. Geopolitical Betting Drives Platform Growth The company has gained notoriety in recent months over wagers placed on the Middle East conflict, including on the timing of US-Israel strikes against Iran, and on a US-Iran ceasefire, some of which appeared to bear signs of insider trading. During this period, Polymarket has experienced a massive increase in volume, with more than $1bn a week now traded on its platform. The platform operates on a commission-based fee structure, though geopolitical and world events markets are "fee-free." Financial Trajectory and Strategic Investments Polymarket's valuation has been increasing rapidly, having achieved a $1bn price tag in June last year after Peter Thiel's Founders Fund led a $200m round. This was followed months later by the owner of the New York stock exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, pledging $1bn at a valuation of $9bn. The NYSE's owner has since invested a further $600m in Polymarket, with plans to become a "global distributor" of the platform's data, using bets to provide "sentiment analysis" to investors. Datafeeds Reshaping Financial Markets Datafeeds from Polymarket and other online prediction markets have increasingly been shaping trades, including in oil markets. The platform's forecasts are being used by more traditional financial institutions to inform their strategies, creating a new intersection between prediction markets and conventional finance. This integration has raised questions about the potential for prediction markets to influence larger financial systems and whether they might create distortions in market behavior. Controversies and Regulatory Challenges Despite its growth, Polymarket has faced significant scrutiny. Numerous bets placed by anonymous accounts have given rise to speculation that people are taking advantage of insider information. The Israeli authorities earlier this year arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to make Polymarket bets. A Guardian investigation found that thousands of people in online communities are strategizing on how to profit from conflict through betting, with some attempting to pressure institutions to change their reporting to align with their wagers. The Future of Prediction Markets As prediction markets continue to gain mainstream acceptance, Polymarket's latest funding round signals growing confidence in the sector's potential. However, the platform faces ongoing challenges regarding regulatory oversight, market manipulation, and the ethical implications of monetizing predictions on sensitive geopolitical events. The increasing integration of Polymarket data into financial decision-making processes suggests that prediction markets are evolving from niche gambling platforms to influential data sources that could shape market behavior in increasingly significant ways.

UNICEF said it is outraged after Israeli forces killed two drivers it had hired to deliver clean water at the Mansoura water filling point in northern Gaza on Friday morning, prompting the agency to halt activities there and demand a thorough investigation.The incident occurred during routine water‑trucking operations; two additional people were wounded. UNICEF immediately suspended all work at the site and urged Israeli authorities to ensure full accountability for the attack.In a statement, UNICEF emphasized that “humanitarian workers, essential service providers, and civilian infrastructure, including critical water facilities, must never be targeted,” underscoring that protecting aid personnel is a binding obligation under international humanitarian law.Palestinian health authorities report that more than 750 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the U.S.–Qatar‑brokered cease‑fire began in October, while overall death tolls in the Gaza conflict exceed 72,000 since the war erupted on October 7, 2023.Separately, in the occupied West Bank, a 25‑year‑old Palestinian man, Muhammad Ahmad Suwaiti, was shot dead by Israeli forces in Khirbet Salama, according to the Palestinian news agency WAFA.The Israeli military described the West Bank incident as the elimination of a “terrorist who infiltrated the community of Negohot in Judea and Samaria,” without specifying the responsible party.Since the Gaza war began, Israeli forces and settlers have killed more than 1,060 Palestinians in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, highlighting the widening humanitarian crisis beyond Gaza.

Israeli police have taken a controversial step by seizing and destroying children's footballs at the Al-Aqsa mosque compound. The incident has raised eyebrows and fueled concerns about the escalating tensions between Israeli authorities and Palestinians. The Al-Aqsa mosque compound, a site of significant religious and cultural importance, has been a focal point of longstanding conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians. The destruction of children's footballs has been seen as a sensitive and provocative move by many in the international community. This development comes at a time when relations between Israel and Palestine remain strained, with both sides engaged in ongoing disputes over land, rights, and security. The incident has sparked widespread concern about the potential for further escalation and its impact on the peace process.

On Thursday, Israeli security forces conducting an operation in Nablus, a major city in the occupied West Bank, fired stun grenades at journalists covering the events. The incident was reported by multiple media outlets present on the ground. According to eyewitness accounts, reporters from local and international news agencies were positioned near the site when the grenades were deployed, causing a sudden flash and loud explosion. No serious injuries were confirmed, but the sudden blast forced the journalists to seek immediate cover and temporarily halted their reporting. Press‑freedom organizations quickly condemned the action, stating that the use of crowd‑control munitions against media personnel undermines the ability to document and verify developments in the region. The incident adds to a growing list of reported confrontations between Israeli forces and members of the press in the occupied territories. Israeli authorities have not yet released an official statement explaining the rationale behind the deployment of the stun grenades. Analysts suggest that heightened security measures during operations often lead to heightened tensions, but emphasize that protecting journalists is essential for transparent reporting in conflict zones. The episode underscores the precarious environment for journalists working in the West Bank, where the line between security operations and press freedom continues to be contested.

Israel has lodged a formal reprimand against a Spanish diplomatic representative after a protester detonated an effigy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The incident, which took place during a public demonstration, prompted Israeli authorities to express concern over the breach of diplomatic decorum. The Israeli response highlights the delicate nature of Israel‑Spain relations, emphasizing that actions perceived as hostile toward a head of government can strain bilateral ties. While details of the diplomatic exchange remain limited, the reprimand signals Israel's expectation that foreign missions uphold respect for its officials. Analysts note that such incidents, though relatively rare, can have broader implications for diplomatic engagement, potentially influencing future cooperation on security, trade, and regional policy. Both nations are likely to manage the fallout through diplomatic channels to prevent a lasting impact on their partnership.

Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon have killed at least 18 people, including eight civilians in a village near Sidon and ten victims – among them three emergency workers – in the Nabatieh district, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The ministry’s latest figures show the conflict, which erupted on March 2 after Hezbollah fired rockets in support of Iran, has now claimed 2,020 lives and wounded 6,436 since Lebanon was drawn into the U.S.–Israel war on Iran. In a separate incident, two Israeli paratroopers were wounded by shrapnel during clashes with Hezbollah forces in the south, as reported by Israel’s Channel 13. Amid the escalating violence, President Joseph Aoun announced that Lebanese, Israeli and U.S. officials will convene in Washington next week to discuss a ceasefire and the framework for future negotiations under U.S. auspices. Hezbollah, however, has reiterated its refusal to engage in direct talks with Israel, labeling the proposed negotiations a “blatant violation of the national pact, the constitution and Lebanese law,” according to lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah. Pro‑Hezbollah demonstrators gathered near the government headquarters in central Beirut, waving the group’s yellow flag and the Iranian standard, to protest the planned talks. Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, later urged supporters to refrain from further demonstrations, citing the need for stability and civil peace. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that any peace settlement must be lasting and called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, underscoring the deep strategic divide. While the United States and Iran announced a tentative ceasefire this week, the agreement’s applicability to Israel’s campaign in Lebanon remains uncertain. Iranian officials claim they secured a U.S. assurance that Israel will reduce attacks on Lebanon, but no confirmation has been received from Israeli authorities regarding a ceasefire or a reduction in hostilities. These diplomatic efforts coincide with historic in‑person ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, highlighting the broader regional stakes of the Lebanon‑Israel conflict.

The Al‑Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem reopened after a 40‑day closure imposed by Israeli authorities.Verified video footage released by Al Jazeera shows crowds streaming through the gates early Thursday, with approximately 3,000 worshippers attending the morning prayers.The ban had been total—or limited to a few dozen faithful—at Christian, Jewish and Muslim sites since the US‑Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. Israel frequently imposes restrictions, especially on Palestinian worshippers.The Islamic Waqf Department in occupied Jerusalem confirmed that the doors of Al‑Aqsa would be opened to all worshippers from dawn; the Jordanian‑affiliated authority managing the site offered no further details.Volunteers and caretakers were seen preparing courtyards and prayer areas to receive the faithful, while Israeli officials announced the simultaneous opening of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre on Wednesday evening.Israeli police attributed the decision to “updated instructions from the Israeli Home Front Command” and highlighted a massive security deployment, with hundreds of police officers and border guards stationed throughout the Old City and surrounding roads to “secure visitors.”Jerusalem’s holy sites have endured strict security measures and repeated closures during the six‑week regional war, curtailing celebrations of Lent, Passover, Ramadan and, for the first time since Israel’s 1967 occupation, Eid al‑Fitr prayers at Al‑Aqsa.The lifting of the ban arrives just in time for Orthodox Christians, who observe Easter on Sunday, a week after Catholic and Protestant celebrations.Continued Raids in the Occupied West BankIsraeli forces continued operations across the occupied West Bank. In Nablus, a woman was detained and a man assaulted during an early‑morning raid, according to the Palestinian news agency Wafa.The Ramallah‑based Palestinian Health Ministry reported that Israeli forces fatally shot 28‑year‑old Alaa Khaled Mohammed Sbeih near the village of Tayasir on Wednesday night; the Israeli military said an off‑duty soldier fired at a stone‑thrower.Wafa added that six young men were detained in Tayasir, while troops stormed homes in Ya’bad, south of Jenin, destroying the contents of three houses. Additional raids hit the villages of Qusra and Awarta, though no arrests were reported there.The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that more than 1,100 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank since 2023, with at least 10,000 people forcibly displaced.

Al Jazeera issued a forceful statement denouncing the recent Israeli operation that resulted in the death of a journalist, labeling the act a "heinous crime" and a direct assault on press freedom.The media outlet called for an immediate and transparent investigation, urging both Israeli authorities and international bodies to hold those responsible accountable. It emphasized that attacks on journalists undermine the public’s right to information, especially in volatile regions.In its condemnation, Al Jazeera highlighted the growing dangers faced by reporters covering conflicts, noting that such incidents exacerbate tensions and erode trust between media organizations and state actors.The statement concluded with a plea for the protection of journalists worldwide, urging the international community to reaffirm its commitment to safeguarding those who document the truth in war zones.

Residents of Tehran and much of Iran are breathing a sigh of relief after a two-week ceasefire was announced, bringing an end to daily bombardments. The ceasefire, agreed upon by Iran and the US with mediation from Pakistan, has allowed some traffic to return to the streets of the Iranian capital during daylight hours.Despite the temporary reprieve, Tehran remains far from its usual bustling state, having been targeted by several thousand munitions since February 28. The Iranian capital is home to more than 10 million people. Air defence systems were activated for short periods several times since the ceasefire was announced overnight, but there were no reports of impacts or any official explanation for the activations.People across Tehran are debating whether the ceasefire will hold and what the future may hold for them. A young man noted, “Looks like the ceasefire will continue. I heard the Israelis are opening up their airspace more,” referring to an announcement by Israeli authorities that flights will resume from Ben Gurion Airport.However, others are more pessimistic, especially after two critical islands off southern Iran were attacked on Wednesday morning, hitting oil facilities. It is unclear who was behind the attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it shot down a drone in the southern province of Fars.Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain also reported attacks on their territories by missiles and drones from Iran, with Iranian state television confirming this was in retaliation for the post-ceasefire oil attacks. Tehran said it was ready to restart military operations if attacked again.On Tuesday, Iranians had been worried about the targeting of critical civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, after a threat from US President Donald Trump to end “civilisation” in a country with one of the world’s oldest civilisations. The ceasefire was announced shortly before the midnight GMT deadline that Trump had set for an agreement to be reached.The Israeli military intensified its attacks in the hours preceding the ceasefire, hitting electricity outposts, bridges, and the railway network. Warplanes also struck the Iranian Aluminium Company in Arak, damaging the country’s largest aluminium production facility.Even after the ceasefire, Israel continued attacking Lebanon, killing more than 250 people in a devastating day of attacks on Wednesday. Israel said it was targeting Iran’s ally Hezbollah, but civilian locations across Lebanon were hit.Trump hailed what he described as a decisive victory against Iran while announcing the ceasefire, but his top general emphasised that the deal only signifies a pause and combat operations could start once again if no final deal is reached. The US military said it struck 13,000 targets across Iran in less than six weeks of war.In Iran, similar proclamations of victory and celebrations were broadcast from Iranian state television. A statement from the Supreme National Security Council urged supporters of the government to trust in the system and refrain from making “divisive commentary”.The council also stressed that affairs were being overseen by Mojtaba Khamenei, who was declared Iran’s supreme leader after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war on February 28.