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Closing the Strait of Hormuz has choked a vital artery that carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s crude oil and LNG, sending energy prices soaring and unsettling global trade. Even if the waterway reopens tomorrow, analysts say the ripple effects will endure for months. Nils Haupt, senior director of corporate communications at German carrier Hapag‑Lloyd, told Al Jazeera that the end of hostilities does not equate to the end of logistics challenges. “Once the bombardments stop, the real work begins,” he said, noting that hundreds of vessels will scramble for berths in Persian Gulf ports, creating a prolonged bottleneck for containers and bulk cargo. According to the International Maritime Organization, about 2,000 ships are currently stranded because of Iran’s partial blockade, with only a handful of vessels from “friendly” nations granted passage. Maritime‑intelligence firm Windward estimates that roughly 400 of those ships are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, waiting for a green light. Diverted traffic has already forced many carriers to reroute via the Suez Canal or take the far longer Cape of Good Hope passage, inflating transit times and costs for shipments bound for Asia and Europe. Oil exports from Saudi Arabia are now being sent around the Red Sea, bypassing the strait entirely. Svein Ringbakken, managing director of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Association, cautioned that even with ports operating at full capacity, clearing the backlog of oil, gas and other goods will take months. He added that repeated attacks on regional energy and transport infrastructure have compounded the problem. The International Energy Agency reports that more than 40 energy assets across the Middle East have suffered “severe or very severe” damage, prompting companies such as QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum Company and Bahrain’s Bapco Energies to declare force majeure. Beyond the immediate loss of flow, the shutdown has disrupted exports of petrochemicals, fertilisers and raw materials essential for plastics production, further straining global supply chains. Industry leaders warn that the risk landscape has fundamentally shifted. SV Anchan, chairman of US‑based logistics group Safesea, highlighted the rise of asymmetric threats, including unmanned vessel attacks, which have already accounted for at least 18 confirmed assaults since the conflict began. “A full reopening will only bring normalcy after a sustained period of stability and credible security guarantees,” Anchan said. Insurance costs have exploded as a result. Marco Forgione of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade noted that hull and cargo premiums have surged up to 300 %, a pressure point that could force shipping firms to curtail operations if rates remain high. Oscar Seikaly, CEO of NSI Insurance Group, stressed that war‑risk coverage will only normalize when a “truly permanent” security solution is in place, not a partial one. Recent data from Lloyd’s List show that a few vessels have managed to obtain Tehran’s permission to transit, with one ship reportedly paying $2 million for the right to pass. Iranian lawmakers have also moved to formalise transit fees for the strait. Nick Marro, lead global‑trade analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that the security guarantees demanded by shippers may be hard to meet, citing the volatile Red Sea experience where commercial traffic remains below pre‑2023 levels. Marro predicts that the Hormuz shutdown will accelerate a broader trend of route diversification, similar to the supply‑chain shifts triggered by the COVID‑19 pandemic. “Geopolitical uncertainty will become a permanent feature of risk management, not a temporary reaction,” he said. Seikaly echoed this outlook, suggesting that exporters will increasingly explore alternative corridors for strategic and political reasons, ultimately reducing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the long term.

The Iran war has triggered a massive energy shortfall in Asia, forcing governments to ramp up their use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Countries across the region, including South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, India, and Bangladesh, are trying to compensate for a drop-off in imported energy, much of which comes from the Middle East.Climate experts have warned that the increased use of coal will have a devastating environmental impact, and that the energy crisis should be a wake-up call for governments to invest in renewables. The crisis has highlighted the importance of renewable energy for energy security in Asia.The global market has flipped within four weeks from a healthy supply surplus to a severe deficit, leading to price spikes and fuel shortages. Almost 30bn cubic meters of LNG has been removed from global supply chains, with over 80% of this loss affecting the Indo-Pacific region.Experts warn that it will take years to recover LNG supplies and that the crisis will have a lasting impact on the energy landscape in Asia. Governments are racing to overcome shortfalls, with some countries introducing measures to reduce energy consumption, such as four-day workweeks and remote work arrangements.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released a stark assessment on Tuesday, projecting that a four‑week US‑Israel conflict with Iran could slash Arab regional GDP by 3.7 % to 6 %. In monetary terms, the loss translates to a contraction of $120 billion to $194 billion, marking one of the deepest economic shocks in recent Middle‑East history. UNDP’s regional director, Abdallah Al Dardari, warned that the downturn would likely eliminate 3.7 million jobs and drive around four million additional people below the poverty line. He described the situation as exposing the “fragility of the Arab economy.” The analysis is based on a scenario of a “short but intense conflict lasting for four weeks.” Should hostilities extend beyond that window, the economic fallout could be even more severe, especially as Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure tighten oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Amid tightening supplies, Brent crude futures surged 4.7 % to over $118 per barrel. The report highlighted that disruptions to “strategic maritime corridors” generate “knock‑on effects on inflation, trade flows, and global supply chains,” threatening the livelihoods of interconnected economies across the region. Poverty spikes are expected to be most pronounced in the Levant and in “fragile” states such as Sudan and Yemen, where baseline vulnerability is already high and economic shocks translate quickly into welfare losses. Lebanon faces a compounded crisis after Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes against Israel, following the US‑Israeli killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February. Ongoing air strikes, evacuation orders, and widespread destruction of residential areas, transport networks, and public services have triggered large‑scale displacement. Al Dardari concluded with a plea: “We hope the fighting will stop tomorrow, as every day of delay has negative repercussions on the global economy.”

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for nearly 20% of the world's oil supply, has become a focal point of geopolitical tensions. Any disruption in this waterway could have significant impacts on global energy markets. Three scenarios are emerging as possibilities for the Strait of Hormuz: 1. Increased Military Presence: An escalation in military presence from various nations could lead to a heightened sense of security but also risks accidental confrontations. 2. Diplomatic Efforts: Diplomatic channels could open up, aiming to de-escalate tensions through dialogue and negotiation, potentially leading to a more stable region. 3. Blockade or Closure: A blockade or closure of the strait could have severe economic consequences, including skyrocketing oil prices and disruptions to global supply chains. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with global implications for energy security and international relations.

The US-Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, has escalated into a war of attrition with no clear strategy or end in sight. The US continues to hit Iranian targets while building up forces in the region, while Iran launches missile and drone attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf states.The conflict has significant economic implications, with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing oil prices to surge and disrupting global supply chains. The pain is likely to get worse, with shortages already felt across the world, from Asian factories to European diesel markets.The war should never have been started, with the threat not imminent, objectives unclear, and justification falling apart under scrutiny. Responsibility rests with Donald Trump and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu. The delusion that force can impose a more compliant regime in Tehran has predictably given rise to a conflict that sustains itself.The only plausible exit is negotiation without preconditions. However, Mr. Trump mixes threats of escalation and claims that negotiations are progressing, with little evidence of a meaningful diplomatic track. The conflict cannot be separated from Gaza, where Mr. Netanyahu is gambling that war with Iran will restore his standing.If US ground forces are committed, the dynamic shifts, and American casualties will harden resolve among those who backed the intervention, making withdrawal politically harder. World powers can shift the incentives away from a US ground war by working together to insulate themselves from economic pain and coordinate diplomatic messaging.

The Houthis are a militant group that emerged from a years-long civil war in Yemen as the country’s most powerful political force. Their strategic location at the entrance of the Red Sea allows them to disrupt international trade.The group, which has an estimated 20,000 fighters, represents the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam. The Houthis first began gaining mass support around the turn of the century from Shia Yemenis who were fed up with corruption and authoritarian leaders.In 2014, the Houthis captured the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, and a year later overthrew the western-backed president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Hadi was forced to flee, but his allies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign, also backed by the west, to drive out the Houthis.The ensuing civil war led to an estimated 377,000 deaths and displaced 4 million people by the end of 2021. The UN brokered a 2022 truce between the warring sides in Yemen that has largely held.As part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, the Houthis began targeting international shipping in the Red Sea after the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which triggered the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. The Houthis’ campaign in the Red Sea – a major thoroughfare for world trade – brought chaos to global supply chains.The Houthis ceased their attacks after a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025.While the US says Iran has armed, funded, and trained the Houthis, the group denies being an Iranian proxy but says they share a political affinity. On 28 March, the Houthis fired missiles at Israel, vowing to continue military operations until Israel “ceases its attacks and aggression”.

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has created a significant disruption in the global helium supply chain, affecting approximately one-third of worldwide production. This critical resource, essential for both medical diagnostics and advanced manufacturing, faces unprecedented challenges as shipping restrictions and production halts impact markets worldwide.The disruption stems primarily from Qatar, the world's largest helium producer, which accounts for about 63 million cubic meters of the roughly 190 million cubic meters of helium produced globally annually. Following Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure, QatarEnergy has announced a 14% annual reduction in helium exports, citing damage to its LNG facilities that also produce helium as a byproduct.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, has seen traffic nearly grind to a halt after Iranian officials announced new transit restrictions. This waterway serves as the primary export route for Qatar's helium, with no viable alternative maritime outlet available.The impact of this helium shortage extends across multiple sectors. MRI machines, which rely on helium's unique cooling properties, face potential operational delays, while the semiconductor industry—a cornerstone of modern technology—also depends on this irreplaceable resource for chip manufacturing. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China stand as the most vulnerable economies, being the largest consumers of Gulf-sourced helium.Market analysts project that helium prices could surge by 10-50% depending on the duration of the supply disruption, with buyers lacking long-term contracts experiencing the most immediate price increases. The medical industry, in particular, has been attempting to develop alternatives, including helium-free MRI technologies and helium recycling systems, though most current systems remain dependent on liquid helium.The United States, as the largest global helium producer at over 40% of worldwide supply, cannot fully compensate for the Gulf shortfall. Even North American consumers face challenges, with major distributors like Airgas already cutting shipments by half and parent company Air Liquide reallocating its supply chain to access helium from other regions.This helium crisis represents the fifth significant supply shortage since 2006, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains for critical industrial materials with no artificial substitutes. The situation underscores how geopolitical conflicts can have far-reaching consequences beyond traditional energy markets, potentially impacting healthcare accessibility and technological innovation worldwide.

The UK government has unveiled a new policy to prioritise British suppliers for public contracts in key sectors deemed vital to national security. Shipbuilding, steel, AI, and energy infrastructure will be the primary areas where British suppliers will be given preference. Under the new guidance, departments will be required to use British steel or justify sourcing it from overseas. This move is part of a broader effort to bolster national security and economic resilience, particularly in the face of global supply chain disruptions highlighted by the war in the Gulf. A Public Interest Test will also be introduced, obliging departments to assess whether outsourced service contracts over £1m could be delivered more effectively in-house. This test is expected to cover more than 95% of central government contracts by value. Chris Ward, a Cabinet Office minister, emphasised that these reforms aim to support British jobs, protect national security, and grow the economy. The policies are part of the National Security Strategy, which seeks to align national security with economic growth and build the resilience of British supply chains. While the UK is still subject to international obligations such as the Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) – World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, national security exemptions are being utilised to implement these new rules. Larger departments spending over £100m annually will need to publish an “insourcing” strategy, outlining plans to bring services back in-house where they offer better value. The government will also prioritise community impact in buying decisions, encouraging firms to demonstrate how their bids will create local jobs and apprenticeships. Additionally, a new suite of AI tools has been developed to streamline the commercial process, making it simpler, faster, and fairer for small businesses and charities to bid for work.

The Arm AGI CPU: A New Era of In-House SiliconFor the first time in its 35-year history, Arm Holdings is stepping out from behind the licensing model to manufacture its own silicon. The company revealed the Arm AGI CPU at an event in San Francisco, a production-ready processor designed specifically for AI inference in data centers. Unlike its traditional business model of licensing designs to giants like Nvidia and Apple, Arm has developed this chip using its own Arm Neoverse family of CPU IP cores.This strategic pivot is backed by a robust ecosystem of launch partners, including Meta, which is the chip's first customer. Other key partners include OpenAI, Cerebras, and Cloudflare. The chip is already ready for order, signaling that Arm is moving aggressively to capture value in the booming AI infrastructure market.The Critical Role of CPUs in AI InfrastructureWhile GPUs have dominated headlines for training large language models, Arm is highlighting the often-overlooked importance of the central processing unit (CPU) in modern AI racks. Arm argues that the CPU is the pacing element of modern infrastructure, responsible for managing thousands of distributed tasks, including memory allocation, storage scheduling, and data movement across systems.Infrastructure Management: CPUs ensure that distributed AI systems operate efficiently at scale.Market Constraints: The demand for high-performance computing is exacerbating global supply chain issues, with Intel and AMD recently informing Chinese customers of extended wait times due to CPU shortages.Cost Implications: These supply constraints are contributing to rising prices for computer hardware.Breaking the Licensing Model: A Strategic Bet on CompetitionThe release of the Arm AGI CPU represents a historic deviation from the company's founding principles. For decades, Arm has operated as a pure-play design licensor, allowing partners to manufacture chips based on its architecture. However, the company is now poised to compete directly with many of its biggest customers.Majority-owned by the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group, Arm's move suggests a desire to capture more of the value chain. By building its own silicon, Arm can offer a more integrated solution for AI workloads, potentially undercutting or complementing the offerings of its licensees. This shift challenges the traditional semiconductor ecosystem and sets a precedent for other IP licensor to consider building their own hardware.The Future of Chip Architecture in the AI RaceArm's entry into manufacturing signals a new phase in the AI chip wars. As the industry moves toward specialized silicon for inference, the line between design houses and manufacturers is blurring. We can expect to see more IP licensor developing their own chips to ensure they have control over the performance and efficiency of the hardware powering the next generation of AI models.