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Political Vacuum in Iraq: Five Months Without a Government More than five months after parliamentary elections, Iraq's Coordination Framework - the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties - has failed to choose its prime ministerial candidate amid intense internal power struggles. The country faces a constitutional deadline of April 26 to form a government while balancing delicate diplomatic ties between the United States and Iran, both of whom exert significant influence over Iraqi politics. The Power Struggle Within Iraq's Shia Bloc The Coordination Framework, which commands approximately 185 of 329 seats in parliament, is locked in a battle between incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who seeks a second term, and the bloc led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - a pro-Iran figure whose candidacy is opposed by the United States. The Framework's general secretariat has called a meeting with a single agenda item: selecting the prime ministerial candidate, as previous meetings were postponed due to disagreements among leaders. The Iranian and American Mediation Efforts Iran's Quds Force head, Ismail Qaani, made an unannounced visit to Baghdad aimed at breaking the leadership deadlock. The visit came at the request of caretaker Prime Minister al-Sudani to convince the Shia Coordination Framework not to nominate Bassem al-Badri, who is aligned with Maliki. Meanwhile, the US has explicitly opposed al-Maliki's candidacy, with President Trump threatening to halt support for Iraq if he's elected, citing concerns about Iran's influence through his leadership. Economic Pressures and Constitutional Deadlines Iraq faces mounting economic challenges with customs tariffs reaching as high as 30% on some goods, a reinstated 20% sales tax on mobile phone recharge cards, and over 90 trillion dinars ($69 billion) in debt. The country's state budget remains dependent on oil for roughly 90% of revenues, all while being without a fully functioning government for over five months. Adding to the pressure, a US presidential executive order protecting Iraqi oil revenues at the Federal Reserve Bank is set to expire in May, potentially exposing those assets to creditors. Regional Power Dynamics and Iraqi Sovereignty The political crisis in Iraq reflects the broader regional power struggle between the United States and Iran. Pro-Iranian armed groups have carried out attacks on US assets in solidarity with Tehran during the US-Israel war on Iran, while the US has designated seven militia commanders from Iran-aligned factions. This delicate balancing act has exposed Iraq's vulnerability to external influences and raised questions about the country's sovereignty as political actors appear to be waiting for the outcome of regional conflicts to determine the next government. Sectarian Divisions and Power-Sharing System The political appointments highlight Iraq's persistent sectarian and ethnic divisions under the power-sharing system (Muhasasa) established after the 2003 US-led invasion. With the presidency now filled by Kurdish politician Nizar Amedi, the speakership reserved for Sunni Arabs, and the prime minister position designated for Shia Arabs, the formation of a government remains critical to maintaining this delicate balance. The prolonged vacuum risks exacerbating existing tensions and potentially destabilizing the country's fragile democratic institutions. Path Forward: Weak Prime Minister or Strong Leadership? As the April 26 deadline approaches, the Coordination Framework appears to be leaning toward selecting a weaker prime minister candidate like Bassem al-Badri who would not challenge the bloc's authority, rather than stronger figures like al-Sudani or al-Maliki. However, the final outcome may depend on the results of negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the regional conflict. Regardless of who is chosen, the next Iraqi government will face the monumental task of addressing economic crises, rebuilding international relations, and asserting greater independence from external influences while navigating the complex regional power dynamics.

The heads of the United Kingdom, United States and European Union central banks and treasuries are set to join a high‑level war game in Washington on Saturday, designed to probe how they would manage the failure of a globally significant bank. Participants include senior officials from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, whose governor Andrew Bailey also chairs the Financial Stability Board. Their presence underscores the seriousness with which regulators are treating cross‑border coordination. The exercise is a “desktop” stress test conducted behind closed doors at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) headquarters. It will simulate a Lehman Brothers‑style collapse and test the joint response mechanisms of the three jurisdictions. Holding the drill during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings provides a rare opportunity for the officials, who are already gathered in the capital, to engage in face‑to‑face scenario planning. Regulators have warned that the financial system faces new strains from artificial‑intelligence advances, risky private‑credit lending and market volatility linked to the US‑Israel conflict over Iran. In particular, the latest AI model from US firm Anthropic, called Mythos, has been flagged for its ability to uncover vulnerabilities in IT systems, raising concerns about cyber‑related financial shocks. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the urgency, stating, “It is a very serious challenge for all of us. It reminds us how fast the AI world moves.” His remarks highlight the intersection of technological risk and traditional banking stability. The FDIC described the event as a “trilateral principal level exercise” aimed at coordinating resolution strategies for global systemically important banks (G‑SIBs). While the agency did not disclose the specific scenarios, it stressed that the drill would enhance each jurisdiction’s understanding of resolution regimes, strengthen cross‑border coordination, and bolster confidence in orderly bank resolutions. Since the 2008 Lehman collapse, such stress‑testing simulations have become routine among regulators, serving as a preventive measure against repeat systemic failures. By convening senior policymakers and central bankers for this war game, authorities hope to sharpen their collective response toolkit, ensuring that any future bank failure can be managed swiftly and with minimal disruption to the global economy.

Senate Democrats have moved to stall President Donald Trump's bid to install a new leader of the US Federal Reserve, condemning the move as 'absurd' given ongoing criminal investigations into the central bank's leadership.Democratic lawmakers on the Senate banking committee urged its Republican leadership to postpone the planned confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, the financial executive and former Fed governor Trump has nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.In a letter to banking committee chair Senator Tim Scott, the 11 Democrats called for a hearing currently scheduled for Tuesday to be delayed until investigations into Powell and Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, are closed.Powell is facing a criminal investigation into the renovations of the central bank's headquarters, which he dismissed as a 'pretext' tied to the Fed's refusal to bow to Trump's demands. The Trump administration also tried to fire Cook, an appointee of Joe Biden, for alleged mortgage fraud.The Democratic senators wrote in their letter to Scott: 'It would be absurd on its face to allow President Trump to handpick the next chair of the Federal Reserve as his Department of Justice actively pursues criminal investigations of not one, but two sitting members of the Federal Reserve board.'Warsh's nomination also faces hurdles from within the president's own party, with outgoing GOP senator Thom Tillis stating he would not support any nomination as long as there is an investigation into Powell.

President Donald Trump announced on Fox Business that he will dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should the governor refuse to leave his post when his term concludes on May 15. The statement, made during an interview with Maria Bartiromo, underscored the president’s willingness to act, saying he “has wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial… he will be fired.” Legal scholars and policy analysts quickly cautioned that the president’s threat is not grounded in statutory authority. Skanda Amarnath, executive director of the think‑tank Employ America, told Al Jazeera that the administration is already losing a court battle over an attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and would likely face the same outcome if it pursued Powell’s removal. The controversy emerges as the Senate Banking Committee prepares to consider Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to succeed Powell. Warsh’s hearing is scheduled for next Tuesday, but his confirmation remains uncertain. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis has pledged to block the nomination until the ongoing federal criminal probe into Powell’s conduct concludes. If the Senate fails to confirm a new chair, Powell would remain at the helm until a successor is appointed, extending the period of tension between the White House and the central bank. Trump also referenced a separate investigation into a costly Fed building renovation, noting that U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro has not indicated any change in the probe’s direction. However, a federal prosecutor later reported that the investigation uncovered no evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Critics argue that Trump’s broader agenda seeks to increase political control over the Fed’s seven‑member board, aiming to install members who share his economic outlook. Currently, the president has appointed three board members, and one seat—held by Governor Stephen Miran—has technically expired, which would need to be vacated for Warsh to join. Powell has framed the investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting monetary policy, a charge that resonates with concerns about preserving the central bank’s autonomy amid political pressure. Overall, the standoff highlights a clash between executive ambition and the institutional safeguards designed to keep monetary policy decisions insulated from short‑term political influence.

President Donald Trump announced on Fox Business that he will dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the central‑bank chief does not vacate the post by the statutory end of his term on May 15. “I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time,” Trump said, adding that he had previously held back the decision to avoid controversy. Powell, who has just over a month left in his tenure, has repeatedly been criticized by Trump for what the president calls a “bad job” and for refusing to lower interest rates despite Trump’s repeated demands since his return to the White House in January 2025. In January, Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Powell. Warsh, known for his criticism of the Fed’s relatively high rates, is expected to align more closely with Trump’s push for rate cuts. His confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is slated for April 21, but the outcome remains uncertain. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a member of the banking committee, has signaled he will block Warsh’s nomination until the Department of Justice concludes its criminal investigation into alleged misconduct surrounding the Fed’s headquarters renovation in Washington, D.C. Tillis described the probe as “reaching the point of absurd,” yet insists the investigation must be resolved before moving forward. The probe appears active: prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the construction site this week, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, underscoring the seriousness of the inquiry. During the same interview, Trump dismissed the investigation’s relevance, claiming the project was “probably corrupt, but what it really is is incompetence,” and questioned whether a $25 million renovation could balloon to a $4 billion expense. Powell responded in January with a rare public rebuke, labeling the investigation a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to lower rates. He warned that political intimidation could jeopardize the Fed’s ability to set monetary policy based on economic evidence. The legal backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on Trump’s authority to fire a Fed board member without cause—a question that resurfaced after the president’s attempted removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook last summer. Justices appeared skeptical of such unilateral action during oral arguments in January. With the Fed’s independence at stake, the coming weeks will determine whether Trump’s threat translates into action, whether Warsh can secure Senate confirmation, and how the renovation investigation will influence the broader debate over political interference in U.S. monetary policy.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sharply criticized President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs, likening the approach to the fiscal tactics of a “banana republic.”Trump has publicly urged the central bank to deliver the lowest interest rate in the world, arguing that cheaper financing would ease the service burden on the United States’ staggering $39 trillion debt.Speaking at an HSBC investor summit in Hong Kong, Yellen asked, “How often does the president of a developed country demand that interest rates be set to reduce debt‑service costs? This is what you hear in a banana republic.” She warned that such political meddling could unleash inflation if the Fed’s independence is compromised.The Fed, under Chair Jerome Powell, last lowered its policy rate in December to a range of 3.5 %–3.75 %. However, policymakers are growing uneasy about inflationary pressures, especially as the ongoing Iran conflict threatens oil supplies.Powell is slated to step down next month, but his successor—Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh—has yet to secure Senate confirmation. Powell has indicated he will remain in his role if a replacement is not confirmed, and he may continue as a Fed governor until a pending Department of Justice investigation concludes.Trump has openly dismissed the idea of Powell staying on, telling Fox Business that he would “have to fire him” if the chair does not leave. Powell, for his part, describes the DOJ probe as a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut rates.Warsh, who argues that potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence could justify lower rates, faces skepticism from Yellen, who doubts he commands the same respect as former Fed chair Alan Greenspan. She noted, “Greenspan was widely respected for his expertise; I don’t think Warsh walks in with that level of credibility.”Trump’s broader effort to reshape the Fed board includes an attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook, who is currently facing a Supreme Court case over alleged mortgage fraud.Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers have gathered in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that rising oil prices, driven by the Iran conflict, constitute a “major supply shock” that central banks must assess carefully.The IMF has cautioned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession, underscoring the interconnected risks of geopolitical tensions, sovereign debt, and monetary policy decisions.

Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor nominated by President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell, has filed ethics disclosures showing personal assets well above $100 million. If confirmed, he would become the wealthiest central‑bank leader in U.S. history. The 69‑page filing, released on Tuesday, lists two private‑fund investments each valued at over $50 million in the Juggernaut Fund LP, plus $10.2 million in consulting fees from the investment office of Wall Street titan Stanley Druckenmiller. Many holdings are described only in broad categories because “pre‑existing confidentiality agreements” prevent full disclosure; Warsh has pledged to divest these assets should his nomination be approved. Federal Reserve ethics rules, tightened in 2022, prohibit officials and their families from owning bank stocks, crypto‑related assets, and impose strict limits on buying and selling securities. The Fed’s own standards, set by the Federal Open Market Committee, are stricter than those governing other federal employees. Beyond the large private‑fund stakes, Warsh’s disclosures reveal a portfolio concentrated in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. Notable entries include the robotic‑coffee‑bar platform Cafe X, wearable‑tech firm Cionic, an Ethereum layer‑two project dubbed “Blast,” and a reversible male‑contraceptive solution called Contraline. Details for many of these positions are omitted, again citing confidentiality. The filing also enumerates assets held by Warsh’s spouse, Jane Lauder—a member of the Estee Lauder family with an estimated net worth of $1.9 billion. Her holdings feature municipal bonds listed simply as “over $1 million.” Liabilities appear modest in comparison: a 2015 mortgage of up to $5 million with JPMorgan Chase at a 2.75% rate, a revolving credit line of up to $5 million from PNC Bank at roughly 6%, and a $1.95 million capital commitment to THSDFS LLC, an interest Warsh has also pledged to divest. Ethics analyst Heather Jones of the Office of Government Ethics confirmed that Warsh’s divestiture promises would bring him into compliance with the Ethics in Government Act. Nonetheless, the breadth of undisclosed holdings is likely to dominate his upcoming confirmation hearing, scheduled for April 21. Political dynamics add further uncertainty. A key Republican senator has signaled intent to block Warsh’s confirmation until a Department of Justice investigation into Powell’s oversight of Fed‑headquarters renovations concludes. Although a federal judge recently dismissed two subpoenas targeting Powell—citing a perceived attempt to pressure him on interest‑rate policy—the Justice Department plans to appeal, potentially delaying any Senate vote. Powell has indicated he will remain “pro tem” if Warsh is not confirmed by the end of his term on May 15, and he could retain his governor seat until 2028 if he chooses.

Kevin Warsh, the former Federal Reserve governor chosen by Donald Trump to lead the central bank, has submitted financial disclosures indicating he holds assets worth well over $100m. This disclosure is a required step for his nomination to advance through the Senate.The document, filed with the US Office of Government Ethics, reveals that Warsh has significant investments, including two worth more than $50m each in the Juggernaut Fund LP and $10.2m in consulting fees from Stanley Druckenmiller's investment office. He has also pledged to divest certain assets if confirmed.Warsh's holdings include around two dozen investments in THSDFS LLC, some valued as high as $5m, as well as assets in artificial intelligence and crypto sectors. His spouse, Jane Lauder, whose family has interests in the Estée Lauder cosmetics company, also had holdings disclosed.The filing is a key step in Warsh's expected confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, though the timing remains uncertain. A Senate banking committee hearing has yet to be scheduled, and Republican lawmakers have vowed to block his confirmation until a Department of Justice investigation into Powell is concluded.

Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel and global stocks fell after weekend talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement and Donald Trump imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US president announced the blockade on Sunday, targeting Iranian vessels and ships that have paid a toll to Iran for passage through the strait, in an attempt to choke off the flow of Iranian oil.US Central Command said it would start at 10am ET (5.30pm in Iran and 3pm in the UK), blocking all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas, in effect seizing control of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The news drove oil and gas prices sharply higher again, after the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced on Wednesday prompted a sharp fall in energy prices, and crude ended the week below the psychological $100 a barrel threshold.Brent crude rose by nearly 7% to $101.74 a barrel on Monday morning, while US crude is up more than 8% to $104.69 a barrel. Gas prices also increased, with the British wholesale gas contract for May soaring by 11.7% to 122.5p a therm. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said last week they expected oil prices to stay high in the second quarter, above $100 a barrel, before easing in the second half of the year.Most Asian stock markets fell on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index losing 1%, while Chinese stocks rose slightly. Sentiment was helped by Beijing’s announcement of a 10-initiative strategy aimed at deepening ties with Taiwan. European stocks also fell, led by airlines including Lufthansa, Wizz Air, easyJet and British Airways parent IAG. The FTSE 100 index in London lost 0.4%, dropping 45 points to 10,555. Germany’s Dax fell 1%, Italy’s FTSE MiB slipped 0.7% and Spain’s Ibex was down 1.1%. With oil and gas prices rising sharply higher, energy companies such as BP and Shell are rallying.Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at the broker Phillip Nova, said: “In today’s environment, every barrel of risk added to oil markets carries an inflation price tag for the global economy.” She added: “The market reaction underscores a simple but powerful reality: Hormuz risk is not theoretical; it is structural, and it is real.”Interest rate expectations have shifted again; investors now see an 84% chance of two rate increases from the Bank of England this year to tackle rising inflation, up from 60% on Friday. Before the Iran war, the central bank was expected to cut rates. The price of gold fell 0.4% to $4,730.75 an ounce as the blockade fuelled inflation concerns, prompting traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.