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Japan's economic strategy has inadvertently created a Japanese century in global finance, driven by the yen's role as a cheap and reliable funding currency. The Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy has suppressed yields on public debt, effectively creating a publicly subsidized funding pipeline for bankers.By borrowing cheaply in yen and investing in higher-return assets, such as US equities, global investors have profited tens of billions of dollars from the 'yen carry trade'. This trade surged after the pandemic, with speculators betting $435bn in the two years to 2024 out of the estimated $1.7tn worth of yen supplied.Despite Japan's first rate hike since 2007 in March 2024, the carry trade remains popular. However, a persistent fear exists that the BoJ may aggressively raise rates, risking a global financial shock. A stronger yen would increase the cost of repaying yen-denominated debts, and heavily leveraged hedge funds could face significant losses.Japan's economic success has created an external dependency on the carry trade to manage internal crises. The country's reflationist prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, is committed to fiscal expansion, which may continue to stabilize the private sector but not necessarily drive growth.Economic analysis suggests that Japan's growth constraints are rooted in its macroeconomic prices, including profit, exchange rate, interest, wages, and inflation. While Japan has seen recent real wage growth, wages have historically been flat or falling, and the country's firms lack a reliably competitive exchange rate and viable profit rate to drive demand and reform.

LIV Golf is shifting its focus from recruiting individual stars to securing whole tournaments, with the Saudi‑funded circuit now eyeing the possibility of hosting traditional national open championships. This strategic pivot could reshape the ongoing power tussle in elite golf. The proposal threatens the DP World Tour—formerly the European Tour—which already boasts a dense calendar of national opens across Europe and emerging markets like China, India and Australia. Adding more of these marquee events to LIV’s roster would intensify competition for the most coveted tournament slots. Although the recent exodus of top players from established tours to LIV appears to have stalled or even reversed, the battle for prime tournament markets is far from settled. Securing historic national opens would give LIV a foothold in events that carry deep cultural and commercial weight. To date, LIV has built a largely international schedule, staging events in Australia, South Africa, Mexico City, Hong Kong and Singapore for the 2026 season. While these locations broaden the circuit’s global reach, none possess the longstanding prestige of a national open. By contrast, the DP World Tour has successfully leveraged national opens to expand its brand beyond Europe, tapping audiences in Asia and the Pacific. This experience underscores the strategic value of such tournaments for sponsors and broadcasters. Meanwhile, the DP World Tour is engaged in high‑level negotiations with the PGA Tour to extend a strategic alliance that currently runs until the end of 2027. The PGA is reportedly pushing for a reduced annual financial underpin for DP World prize funds, and the emerging threat from LIV is a key bargaining chip in those talks. Recent player movements have added nuance to the rivalry: the PGA Tour welcomed back Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed after their departures to LIV, yet the Saudi Public Investment Fund shows no sign of scaling back its ambitious golf project. On the player front, Jon Rahm, who remains with LIV, is slated to address the media at Augusta National ahead of the Masters. Having lost an appeal over fines imposed for playing on LIV, Rahm is currently barred from the Ryder Cup and has refused to settle the penalties, leaving him in strained relations with the DP World Tour. His comments are expected to dominate the pre‑Masters press conference.

American consumers are watching gasoline and airline fares climb, while economists warn that the war in Iran will keep pressure on prices across the U.S. economy.“The good old days are gone,” said Christopher Tang, a professor at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management who studies global supply chains. “We see gasoline prices rising now, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg; everything will become more expensive.”Since the conflict began in late February, crude oil has surged past $110 a barrel. The rally is tied to Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes.In a recent address, President Donald Trump claimed the United States is “totally independent of the Middle East” and has “plenty of gas.” However, Brookings Institute’s energy‑security director Samantha Gross reminded listeners that oil is a globally traded commodity and the U.S. still imports significant volumes, meaning American consumers will face the same high prices as the rest of the world.Iran has either halted shipments through the strait or imposed a toll of up to $2 million per vessel. Tankers are forced to take longer routes or pay the fee, inflating logistics costs for all downstream users.Major logistics players are already passing those costs on. Amazon announced a 3.5% surcharge for third‑party sellers, while UPS and FedEx have introduced fuel surcharges exceeding 25%. The United States Postal Service will add an 8% surcharge to transportation rates starting 27 April, noting the charge is “less than one‑third of what our competitors charge for fuel alone.”When the prices go up, they rarely come back down— Christopher Tang, UCLACountries have dipped into strategic oil reserves to blunt the shock, but economists such as Virginia Tech’s David Bieri warn that refilling those stockpiles will require buying oil at today’s elevated prices, keeping the upward pressure on the market.Higher oil costs ripple beyond fuel. Crude is a key feedstock for chemicals, pharmaceuticals and fertilizers, meaning the surge could translate into higher prices for prescription drugs and groceries.Cornell University’s agricultural economics professor Christopher Wolf explained that diesel, a major input for farm equipment and fertilizer production, is also climbing, raising the cost of both crop cultivation and livestock raising.Retailers and food processors are already adjusting. “If we anticipate higher costs, we start raising prices early to avoid a sudden shock later,” Wolf said, describing a “rational expectations” approach.The Independent Grocers Alliance warned that a 10‑15% rise in fuel costs could lift food prices by 2‑4% by mid‑summer, underscoring the broader impact on household budgets.Although President Trump expects the United States to exit the Iran conflict within two to three weeks, experts agree that even a swift resolution will not instantly reverse the price spikes.The strait’s strategic importance means the political risk premium on oil will linger. “You never know when this could flare up again,” said Northeastern University’s Ravi Ramamurti, adding that the effect is likely to be persistent.As Tang summed up, “When the prices go up, they rarely come back down.”

The US government shutdown affecting the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will persist, despite the Senate passing a funding bill. The partial shutdown, which began on February 14, will continue until at least Monday, when the House of Representatives reconvenes.The stalemate centers on whether DHS should reform its immigration procedures, following criticism of President Donald Trump’s mass deportation push. Democrats have refused to pass funding to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) without reforms to their practices.The shutdown has had several knock-on effects, including airport delays and unpaid workers. DHS, which oversees the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), has seen its airport security agents go without pay for six weeks. With agents calling out sick or leaving their jobs, US airports have reported long lines and widespread travel delays.President Trump has endorsed a plan to fully fund DHS, which involves a two-track approach: passing a bill to fund the department, except for ICE and CBP, and then funding ICE and CBP through separate spending legislation. Trump has also vowed to pay 'all' DHS employees, although details on how this will be achieved are unclear.The shutdown has been politically unpopular, with unions and transportation safety groups criticizing the strain it has placed on workers and airport security. Democrats have sought to leverage the funding bill to press for changes to Trump’s immigration policy, while Republicans have accused them of putting Americans' livelihoods in jeopardy for political gains.

Europe’s attention is fixed on Hungary’s parliamentary election scheduled for April 12, a contest many analysts view as a litmus test for the bloc’s cohesion on foreign‑policy, defence, energy and migration. Since coming to power, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has consistently blocked EU initiatives: he has refused to join a common asylum framework, opposed a joint defence scheme, resisted the shift toward renewable‑energy independence while still importing Russian hydrocarbons, and vetoed both Ukraine’s accession talks and a proposed €90 billion low‑interest loan package for Kyiv. These actions have made Hungary the most disruptive member state in the Union, prompting observers to argue that the election’s outcome will reverberate far beyond Budapest’s borders. Greek conservative MP Angelos Syrigos warned that the EU is plagued by “fanatically Trump‑like and pro‑Russian” governments, naming Hungary and Slovakia as examples. He told Al Jazeera that the constant threat of an Orban veto forces other capitals to seek ad‑hoc compromises rather than genuine consensus. Opposition leader Peter Magyar of the Tisza party is campaigning on a pro‑European platform, pledging a binding referendum on Ukraine’s membership, a crackdown on corruption, the release of billions in frozen EU funds, and a reversal of Hungary’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court. Current polls give Tisza roughly 50 % of the vote, a ten‑point lead over the ruling Fidesz, though the political landscape remains fluid. Even a Magyar victory would not automatically resolve the EU’s structural challenges. Other illiberal leaders—such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico and the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babiš—could step into a vacuum of obstructionism. Nevertheless, some scholars argue that Orban’s habit of breaking consensus has forced the Union to become more pragmatic. At a December 2023 summit, EU leaders temporarily excluded Orban to secure unanimous approval of Ukraine’s candidate status, later offering Hungary a €10 billion release of blocked funds as an incentive. Professor Katalin Miklossy of the University of Helsinki explained that the EU has shifted from a rigid, rule‑bound approach to a more flexible, problem‑solving mindset, saying, “We were weak when we clung to the book; now we act more practically.” Should Orban remain in power, the bloc is considering a workaround: issuing 26 bilateral loans to Ukraine from member states, bypassing any single‑country veto. Historical precedent exists. In 2010, when Greece’s debt crisis threatened the euro, EU members created the Greek Loan Facility—an ad‑hoc series of bilateral loans that compensated for the lack of a common rescue fund. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that delays in funding could leave the Ukrainian army under‑resourced, underscoring the geopolitical stakes of the Hungarian vote. The EU’s inability to move from unanimity to qualified‑majority voting—an ambition thwarted by failed French and Dutch referenda in 2005—has amplified Orban’s leverage. Yet the Union continues to evolve, having launched a common bond in 2020 to revive the pandemic‑hit economy and, since Russia’s 2022 invasion, channeling resources into a nascent European defence union. Orban’s recent reversal on the €90 billion Ukraine loan—after Kyiv refused to repair the Druzhba pipeline damaged by a Russian bomb—illustrates the volatility of his stance. He initially agreed to the loan in December, on the condition that Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic would not be required to co‑sign, only to withdraw support a month later. Even if Magyar secures a parliamentary majority, the promised loan may not materialise immediately. Cambridge‑based expert Victoria Vdovychenko notes that a decision made in December 2025 to disburse funds from January 2026 has already stalled, with the next realistic window possibly in June. Academics stress that a Tisza victory would deliver a psychological boost to the EU and its trans‑Atlantic partners, injecting confidence into a system battling “stealth creep of illiberalism” and economic disenfranchisement. Professor SM Amadae of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk warned that while a change in Hungary could energise citizens, the entrenched gerrymandering and patronage networks of Fidesz present formidable obstacles to lasting reform. In sum, the April 12 election is more than a domestic contest; it is a pivotal moment that could reshape the EU’s decision‑making architecture, determine the flow of critical aid to Ukraine, and signal the future trajectory of populist politics across Europe.

Forecasts indicate that the worldwide secondhand apparel sector will expand by 12% in 2024, reaching $289 bn (£217 bn), buoyed by artificial intelligence tools and social‑media influencers that help consumers locate desired items.Platforms such as Vinted, Depop, Vestige and ThredUp are expected to sustain an average 9% annual growth over the next five years, pushing the market to an estimated $393 bn—roughly double the growth rate of the broader clothing industry.The outlook stems from ThredUp’s latest resale report, which incorporates analysis from GlobalData. In 2021 the market was valued at just $141 bn, meaning the projected 2024 figure is more than double that baseline.Major brands—including Dr Martens, Zara and Mulberry—are now entering the resale space, either by offering pre‑owned pieces or refurbishing items to satisfy rising consumer demand."Resale is no longer merely expanding; it’s capturing direct market share," said James Reinhart, co‑founder and CEO of ThredUp. The report notes that resale now accounts for one‑tenth of global clothing sales, and that the U.S. secondhand market grew nearly four times faster than the overall market by 2025.ThredUp’s own revenue climbed 20% to $310.8 m last year. Depop reported a 42% increase to £101 m, while Vinted posted a 36% rise to €813.4 m (£710 m) in 2024. However, profitability remains elusive: ThredUp posted a $20 m pre‑tax loss, Depop a £42 m loss, and only Vinted turned a profit, earning €76.7 m. Depop was recently acquired by eBay from Etsy.Reinhart warned that rising inflation—spurred by geopolitical tensions that lift energy and fuel costs for manufacturers—could push more shoppers toward affordable secondhand options."The industry stays robust, driven by young consumers' behaviour," he added.Artificial intelligence is streamlining the massive inventories of resale platforms, enabling rapid cataloguing and matching of items to buyer preferences. "Netflix and Spotify spent decades building data and algorithms to recommend content; AI can achieve similar personalization for fashion almost instantly," Reinhart explained, noting that this reduces friction between spotting an item on social media and completing a purchase.Looking ahead, the market’s next phase will be defined by firms that can unlock supply and leverage AI to connect inventory with the next generation of shoppers, according to Reinhart.Analyst Neil Saunders of GlobalData highlighted that consumers aged 14‑45 (Gen Z and millennials) are projected to generate 70% of market growth. He emphasized that discovery tools must migrate to the social feeds where these shoppers spend their time, and that technology will be essential to simplify selling and maintain sufficient stock for expanding demand.

Irish MEP Barry Andrews toured makeshift shelters in Beirut last month, where displaced families are living on dirty mattresses and blankets and suffering from infections. The conditions, he said, are worse than during Israel’s 2024 incursion, underscoring the human cost of Israel’s retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.On returning to Dublin, Andrews became one of the first European lawmakers to urge the European Union to revive sanctions against Israel. He argued that the EU must also address state‑backed settler violence in the West Bank, attacks on health workers in Gaza, and Israel’s recent move to reinstate the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorism.The EU’s leverage lies in its association agreement with Israel, a commerce and cooperation accord that underpins a €68 billion (€59 bn) trading relationship and includes cooperation on energy and scientific research. Former EU representative to the Palestinian territories, Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff, says the bloc should suspend this agreement, halt all military aid, and cease trade with illegal settlements, warning that inaction will further damage the EU’s reputation.Andrews described the EU’s reaction to the Iran‑Israel‑Lebanon war as “weak and pathetic,” adding that it effectively gives Israel a “permission slip for endless war crimes.” The European Commission condemned the Knesset’s death‑penalty vote as “very concerning” and a “clear step backwards,” while the Council of Europe called it a “legal anachronism” incompatible with modern human‑rights standards.Human‑rights figures note that in the past four weeks more than 1,240 people have been killed in Lebanon—including at least 124 children—and over 1.1 million have been displaced. In Gaza, the death toll has risen by 673 since the October ceasefire, bringing the total to 72,260 deaths.EU leaders have been divided on how to respond. Former Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed unprecedented sanctions last September, citing a “man‑made famine” in Gaza, but the proposal failed to secure a majority in the Council of Ministers, losing momentum after the U.S. announced a cease‑fire plan.Member states also differ: Ireland, Spain and Slovenia champion the Palestinian cause, whereas Germany, Austria and Hungary—led by Viktor Orbán, a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—have resisted measures such as sanctions on West Bank settlers.Despite these divisions, a senior EU diplomat warned in mid‑March that the bloc may need to “increase pressure on Israel again,” citing the “highly problematic” situation in Gaza and the West Bank. Another diplomat highlighted the importance of engaging with Israeli civil society, noting an open letter from 600 Israeli security officials urging an end to the Gaza war.In a recent statement, a Commission spokesperson reiterated that diplomatic engagement with Israel continues, describing it as the standard approach when partners “do not see developments eye to eye.” Yet former EU envoy Kühn von Burgsdorff cautioned that the EU cannot appear as a “sidekick” to an “erratic, unreliable” U.S. president or a “warmongering, annexationist” Israeli prime minister, as such a stance would undermine Europe’s global standing.

The United States has been proposing unusual bilateral health agreements to developing countries, mostly in Africa, in exchange for access to sensitive health data and critical minerals. These deals have sparked concerns of exploitation and have been met with resistance from several countries.In November, the US approached Zimbabwean authorities with a proposal that would have provided over $300m in funding in return for sensitive health data. However, Harare felt that the negotiations were 'lopsided' and promptly pulled out.Zambia also pushed back against a similar proposal, citing 'problematic' clauses that sought access to the country's minerals, including copper, cobalt, and lithium. The US had offered $1bn in funding over five years, but Lusaka requested a review of the proposal.Several African countries, including Nigeria and Kenya, have signed the health pacts, but the terms agreed remain unclear.Data or mineral demands in return for health aid are unprecedented in the history of US-Africa relations. Policy experts argue that tying crucial funding to sensitive national assets could have negative consequences for African nations and the US itself.'Supporting global health has clear benefits to the United States in terms of prevention of pandemics that can affect Americans too,' said Sarang Shidore, Africa director at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. 'Linking such aid to payoffs in the extraction of critical minerals smacks of exploitative practices.'African nations have long relied on US funding to foot many of their health bills. In 2024, African countries received $5.4bn in US assistance, largely spent on humanitarian, health, and disaster needs.However, the US has argued that aid cuts suit its America First agenda, which prioritizes national interests. The stance has been met with criticism, with some economists arguing that aid is often ineffective and causes overreliance.Washington is now focused on government-to-government deals, which have typically required governments to take on an increasing share of their own health budgets in the next four to five years.Some analysts see this as a positive move to reduce overdependence on foreign funding and force governments to prioritize health spending in their budgets. However, the clauses that Washington is demanding to leverage its aid for data, rare earth elements, and other minerals have caused widespread outrage in some countries.In the case of Zambia, the US reportedly asked for access to the country's critical minerals in return for $1bn over five years. The US also asked for a one-way data-sharing agreement for 10 years.If Lusaka fails to ink a deal, US aid funding to the country will be discontinued, which could mean losing the remnants of funding Zambia still receives from the PEPFAR programme.

Amid the escalating United States‑Israel confrontation with Iran, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as an unexpected voice on financial strategy, posting a series of warnings on X that market‑moving headlines are often engineered to trigger profit‑taking. Ghalibaf’s core advice is simple yet provocative: if a headline inflates prices, bet against it; if it drags prices down, go long. He describes pre‑market news bursts as a “reverse indicator” designed to manipulate investors. His posts are laced with sarcasm, referencing alleged manipulation of oil futures and even joking about turning rhetoric into “actual fuel at the pump.” Behind the humor, analysts say, lies a calculated effort to exploit the overlap between digital propaganda and real‑world conflict. The backdrop to Ghalibaf’s messaging is Iran’s use of asymmetric warfare, notably the brief shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments pass. The closure sent crude prices soaring and heightened economic pressure worldwide, underscoring Tehran’s ability to influence U.S. markets by targeting critical supply routes. On March 22, Ghalibaf warned financial institutions that support U.S. military financing in the Middle East, declaring that U.S. Treasury bonds are “soaked in Iranians’ blood” and that their portfolios were under surveillance. Economist Jo Michell of the University of the West of England observes that falling equity markets, rising energy costs, and higher interest rates could eventually force President Donald Trump to seek a diplomatic exit from the conflict. Michell notes that Trump often delivers his most aggressive statements over weekends when markets are closed, only to retreat before the opening bell—a pattern traders have dubbed TACO (“Trump always chickens out”). Indeed, when Trump’s original 48‑hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz loomed, he extended it by five days and later pledged a further 10‑day pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure, actions that analysts interpret as deliberate market signaling. Middle‑East specialist Zeidon Alkinani explains that the conflict’s volatility creates new leverage points beyond direct price manipulation. Even light‑hearted rhetoric from officials like Ghalibaf can exacerbate market instability, as investors scramble for any hint of the war’s trajectory. In this environment, uncertainty itself becomes a powerful market driver. Alkinani stresses that the significance of the Strait of Hormuz now extends beyond physical oil flow disruptions; it reshapes investor expectations and amplifies the impact of digital messaging, especially given Trump’s high‑visibility online presence. Overall, Ghalibaf’s social‑media campaign illustrates how Tehran is blending military pressure with information warfare, turning market sentiment into an additional front of the broader geopolitical struggle.