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Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are expected to resume in Islamabad within days, placing President Donald Trump under intense pressure to deliver an Iran accord that can be credibly billed as superior to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) brokered by former President Barack Obama. Two tests dominate the diplomatic calculus: the deal must demonstrably exceed the Obama agreement, and it must ensure that Iran derives no lasting strategic advantage, particularly over the vital Strait of Hormuz. While direct comparisons with the 159‑page JCPOA are imperfect—given the evolution of Iran’s nuclear program and the emergence of non‑nuclear concerns—the Trump team is framing its objectives around four pivotal issues. 1. Enrichment suspension: In Geneva on 26 February, the U.S. demanded a 10‑year freeze on all domestic uranium enrichment, a figure Iran’s foreign minister deemed unrealistic beyond three years. In Islamabad, the U.S. escalated the ask to a 20‑year suspension, yet Trump publicly dismissed even that, insisting on a permanent ban. The practical timeline for Iran to restart enrichment after the damage to its facilities remains uncertain. 2. Highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile: The original JCPOA capped uranium enrichment at 3.65% and limited the stockpile to 300 kg. Iran now holds 440.9 kg of 60%‑enriched uranium—a material that can be rapidly converted to weapons‑grade (90%)—mostly stored as UF₆ gas in scuba‑tank‑sized canisters. Tehran offered to down‑blend this stockpile to 3.67% in an irreversible process, mirroring the 2015 deal’s provisions. The U.S., however, is pressing for the entire stockpile to be removed from Iran under American supervision, a stance that raises questions about the relative merits of in‑country down‑blending versus export. 3. Sanctions relief: The JCPOA promised the release of roughly $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of oil trade restrictions, while retaining sanctions on terrorism, human rights, and missile proliferation. In the Geneva framework, over 80% of sanctions would be lifted, leaving only human‑rights‑related measures. Trump’s administration, wary of political backlash, seeks to attach conditions on how Iran can spend the relief, a demand Tehran rejects, insisting on a permanent, irreversible lifting of sanctions. 4. Non‑nuclear issues: Trump has repeatedly criticized the JCPOA for isolating Iran’s nuclear program from its broader regional behavior. The current negotiations must grapple with Iran’s ballistic‑missile program, support for proxy forces, and the strategic future of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials are divided: one camp favors leveraging the strait for immediate revenue and national pride, while another views it as a diplomatic lever to secure a lasting ceasefire and security guarantees. The confluence of these challenges creates a “marshmallow test” for both sides—whether they can forgo short‑term temptations in favor of a durable, long‑term settlement. As the Trump presidency approaches its final year, the ability to craft a deal that convincingly outperforms the Obama era while addressing the expanded nuclear and geopolitical landscape will determine the legacy of U.S. policy on Iran and its impact on regional stability.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to revise the trade deal between the US and UK, signed last year, citing the 'sad state' of their relations. The deal, which cut some US tariffs on cars, aluminium, and steel, was described by Trump as 'better than I had to' and 'can always be changed'.The strained relations between the two countries are largely due to sharp differences over the US approach to the Middle East, particularly the conflict with Iran. UK ministers have expressed frustration and anger over the economic fallout of the US decision to go to war with Iran, which could trigger a global recession.UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has voiced her frustration, stating that the US launched strikes without a clear idea of its objectives. Keir Starmer, the UK leader, has also expressed his concerns, saying he is 'fed up' with Trump's actions causing energy bills to rise.Trump, in an interview with Sky News, accused Britain of not being supportive during the Iran conflict, saying 'they were not there when we needed them'. He also suggested that a permanent ceasefire with Tehran could be struck before King Charles's state visit to the US later in April.The IMF's spring meetings will focus on the crisis in the Gulf, with the organisation cutting Britain's economic growth forecast due to the conflict. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has stated that the UK is better placed to deal with the fallout due to its resilient banking system.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is embarking on a diplomatic mission to Saudi Arabia and Turkey this week, as his efforts to facilitate a second round of peace talks between the United States and Iran appear to be gaining traction.Sharif's bid to moderate talks comes during a fragile two-week ceasefire that has halted US and Israeli strikes on Iran. President Asif Ali Zardari has urged Sharif and other officials to remain engaged with the US, Iran, and other key powers to sustain the peace process.Reports of backchannel negotiations to arrange new peace talks surfaced on Monday, followed by comments from US President Donald Trump and the United Nations on Tuesday, suggesting there is support for Sharif's push. Trump indicated that talks could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, praising Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir as 'doing a great job.'The Associated Press reported on Tuesday that a diplomat from one of the mediating countries said Tehran and Washington had agreed to more talks, although the location, timing, and composition of the delegations had not been decided. Islamabad and Geneva are being considered as potential host cities.UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who met with the deputy prime minister of Pakistan on Tuesday, said it was 'highly probable' that ceasefire talks would restart. He emphasized the need for continued negotiations and a persistent ceasefire.Any return to the negotiating table would likely test the diplomatic skills of Sharif and other mediators. During the fragile two-week ceasefire, the US military has mounted a naval blockade of Iran's ports and coastal areas in response to Iran's throttling of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global oil prices to skyrocket.

The United States has implemented a naval blockade on Iran, aiming to pressure Tehran into accepting its terms for an end to their war. The blockade, which took effect at 14:00 GMT on Monday, has been met with resistance from Iran's armed forces, who have labeled it 'an illegal act' that 'amounts to piracy.'The blockade's impact on Iran's economy is expected to be significant, particularly on its oil exports. Iran primarily exports oil and gas through its ports, with the Strait of Hormuz being the only waterway out of the Gulf. The strait is crucial for global trade, with 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies passing through it in peacetime.Despite the war, Iran's oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz had increased in March and early April, with the country exporting 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March and 1.71 million bpd so far in April. However, with the US blockade in place, Tehran's capacity to export crude oil has been directly hit.Iran's oil revenue has been substantial, with the country earning $4.97bn over the past month from oil exports, a 40 percent increase from before the war. However, analysts warn that the blockade will hurt Iran's economy, with Mohamad Elmasry stating that 'Iran would not be able to export oil, at least not at the same level.'The blockade will not only impact oil exports but also trade of other goods. Iran's non-oil trade reached $94bn from March 21, 2025, to January 20, with imports outpacing exports. The current blockade will hurt Iran's overall trade and economy, analysts say.Iran and China have developed a railway line to reduce dependency on straits like the Strait of Hormuz. The China-Iran railway 'helps mitigate the risks of naval interdiction by Western forces that hamper Iranian trade, particularly the transport of crude oil by Tehran's so-called 'ghost ships'.'The situation is volatile, with Frederic Schneider stating that 'it's very difficult to say how serious the US is about this blockade, how long it will last, how it will end and what is coming next.' The involvement of China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, adds an X factor to the situation.

On Tuesday, shipping data from LSEG and Kpler confirmed that at least three tankers entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, including the Panama‑flagged Peace Gulf, which is bound for Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Earlier that day, two U.S.–sanctioned vessels, the Rich Starry and the Elpis, also transited the waterway. Because none of these ships were destined for Iranian ports, they remain exempt from the U.S. blockade that began on Monday. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that, as of 10 a.m. ET (14:00 GMT) on Monday, a naval blockade was in effect against all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, in line with the presidential order issued by former President Trump. The directive applies to "vessels of all nations" operating in Iranian coastal waters, including the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Tehran has warned of possible retaliation against ports in neighboring Gulf states. In response to the blockade, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered every ship to follow a newly‑drawn navigation map that forces vessels to enter the strait north of Larak Island and exit south of it, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines in the former main traffic zone. Before the conflict, the strait functioned like a divided highway with two dedicated lanes—each about 3.2 km long—carrying roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. The IRGC now classifies the original lanes as "restricted" and has effectively closed them. Ship traffic has collapsed by **more than 95 %** since the war began. Kpler’s tracking data shows that only **279 vessels** passed through the strait between Feb. 28 and Apr. 12, a stark contrast to the pre‑war average of around **100 ships per day**. Even after a cease‑fire took effect on Apr. 8, a mere **45 ships** have entered or exited the waterway. The disruption has left hundreds of tankers and other vessels stranded in the Gulf, slashing global oil and gas supplies by an estimated **20 %**—the largest fuel‑supply shock on record. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the sharp reduction in shipments have pushed crude prices up by roughly **50 %**, with Asian importers bearing the brunt of the price spike. According to the same Kpler data, **22 ships** have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. The incidents are distributed as follows: eight in United Arab Emirates waters, six in Omani waters, two each in Iraqi and Qatari waters, and one each in Bahraini, Kuwaiti, Saudi and Iranian waters. These figures underscore the strategic vulnerability of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint and highlight how the combined effect of the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s alternate routing has reshaped global shipping patterns and commodity markets.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently engaged in high-stakes diplomacy, hosting United States Vice President JD Vance for talks on the sidelines of direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran, marking the highest-level engagement between the two nations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense announced the arrival of a Pakistani military force at King Abdulaziz Air Base in the kingdom's Eastern Province, under the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed last year. The SMDA commits both countries to treating any act of aggression against one as an act against both, strengthening joint military coordination and raising operational readiness. This development has underscored Pakistan's delicate balancing act in the midst of a war that has destabilized the global economy and led to attacks and deaths in multiple countries. Pakistan has been a central mediator between the US and Iran, hosting their teams and driving attempts to continue talks after a breakdown in negotiations. However, its commitment to militarily assist Saudi Arabia, a key ally repeatedly hit by Iran, poses significant challenges. Analysts suggest that Pakistan's approach carries both logic and risk, as it attempts to sustain both roles using its commitments under the SMDA to create leverage over Iran and deter further strikes on Saudi installations. The continuation of US-Iran talks is crucial for Pakistan, as hostilities restarting could collapse its strategy and force deeper involvement in the conflict. Experts emphasize that Pakistan's window for playing both mediator and Saudi military ally is narrow, and its military deployment must remain strictly defensive, time-bound, and transparently limited to avoid jeopardizing its relationships with both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Sergey Lavrov touched down in Beijing as Washington intensified its pressure on Iran by attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries roughly one‑third of China’s oil imports. The Russian foreign minister was greeted with a red‑carpet reception, according to photos released by Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Both Beijing and Moscow condemned the United States and Israel over their involvement in the ongoing war on Iran, noting that the conflict has already strained China’s energy supplies. China, a major purchaser of Iranian crude, denounced a newly announced U.S. plan to prohibit vessels from entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal waters, calling the measure an unjustified interference with international trade. “The Strait of Hormuz is a vital international trade route for goods and energy, and its security and uninterrupted flow serve the common interest of the global community,” Chinese MFA spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Monday. According to Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher, the U.S. hopes that by choking Iran’s trade it can force China to pressure Tehran into returning to negotiations, given that Beijing imports about a third of its oil from Iran. Lavrov also held a telephone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, emphasizing the need to prevent any resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East and reiterating Russia’s “unwavering readiness” to assist in a diplomatic settlement. Araghchi relayed details of recent U.S.–Iran talks in Pakistan, which ended without a breakthrough, underscoring the limited diplomatic progress on the issue. The visit comes as China‑Russia relations have deepened since Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Earlier in the week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with Lavrov, agreeing that the two capitals would cooperate to de‑escalate tensions in the region. Beijing’s diplomatic calendar this week also featured meetings with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and an upcoming visit by Vietnamese President To Lam, highlighting China’s active role in global diplomacy despite its low‑profile stance on the Iran conflict. Analysts note that China’s restrained approach allows it to position itself as a “reliable, stable and predictable partner” for states seeking alternatives to U.S. influence, especially given its extensive trade ties with Tehran. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, slated to visit Beijing next month, warned he would impose a 50 percent tariff on Chinese goods if China provides military assistance to Iran. The claim followed a CNN report citing U.S. intelligence that China might deliver new air‑defence systems to Tehran. Chinese officials dismissed the report as “completely fabricated” and warned of “resolute counter‑measures” should the United States use it as a pretext for additional tariffs.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a stark warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, the world could face a food ‘catastrophe’. The disruption is already halting shipments of vital agricultural inputs, a situation that could quickly cascade into higher food prices. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero told Al Jazeera that, for now, food prices have stayed stable because existing stockpiles are absorbing the shock. However, he cautioned that this buffer is temporary and that “the clock is ticking.” FAO agrifood economics director David Laborde added that if traffic does not resume, the resulting strain on energy and fertilizer markets will translate into “higher commodity and retail prices later this year and into 2027.” According to the FAO, 20‑45% of key agrifood inputs—including fertilizers, pesticides and feed—depend on maritime passage through the Hormuz chokepoint. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea, the most widely used fertilizer, also moves through the strait, making global agriculture highly vulnerable. Recent gas supply disruptions have already forced fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond to cut or halt production, raising concerns that farmers may have to reduce fertilizer use or face higher production costs. Torero emphasized that poorer countries are especially at risk because planting calendars leave little room for delays; a slowdown in input delivery could quickly lead to “lower output, higher inflation and slower global growth.” The blockade stems from Iran’s decision to bring traffic to a near‑total halt in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel, which launched a war on Tehran on 28 February, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The conflict has already doubled oil and gas prices compared with pre‑war levels. Negotiations between Iranian and US representatives over a 21‑hour marathon failed to secure a permanent ceasefire. Subsequently, US President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade, stating that the navy would interdict ships in international waters that had paid Iran a toll to traverse the strait. The US military later declared it would block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, including those in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. FAO officials stress that decisive action—both a sustained ceasefire and the reopening of the waterway—is essential to prevent the looming food crisis from becoming a full‑blown catastrophe.

President Donald Trump asserted that a diplomatic path remains open for Tehran, even as the United States enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Israel deepens its ground offensive in southern Lebanon. Iran’s leadership denounced the blockade as "piracy" and thousands gathered in Tehran to demonstrate against the restriction on maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press reported that diplomatic channels are still active; Pakistan has volunteered to host a second round of negotiations in Islamabad later this week. US blockade and protests: The enforcement of the maritime restrictions has provoked Iranian accusations of illegal action and sparked street protests in the capital. Tehran’s legal stance: Iran’s armed forces labeled the blockade unlawful, warning that targeting its ports could jeopardize broader Gulf shipping. IRGC warning: A Revolutionary Guard spokesperson hinted that Iran retains "unused capabilities" and may adopt new tactics if the confrontation escalates. Parliamentary support for the Pope: Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Pope Leo XIV’s condemnation of the war, describing it as courageous. Russian nuclear staff pull‑out: Moscow has withdrawn most of its personnel from Iran’s sole nuclear power plant, a project built with Russian assistance. Qatar’s mediation call: Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani urged both Washington and Tehran to engage constructively in mediation. Pakistan’s ceasefire assessment: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the US‑Iran truce is holding, even as weekend talks failed to produce a breakthrough. Shipping disruption: A UN spokesperson warned that there is no military solution and noted that roughly 20,000 vessels are stranded, straining global supply chains, especially for fertiliser. UK push for Lebanese inclusion: London advocated adding Lebanon to the US‑Iran ceasefire framework, which currently omits Hezbollah‑related fighting. US‑Lebanon diplomatic talks: Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are slated to meet in Washington to discuss halting hostilities. Hezbollah’s rejection: Leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanon to cancel the planned Washington meeting, reaffirming the group’s opposition to any direct dialogue with Israel. Russia’s uranium offer: The Kremlin reiterated its willingness to accept Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a broader US‑Iran settlement, echoing President Vladimir Putin’s statements. Trump on Iranian outreach: The former president claimed Iranian officials have expressed a strong desire to negotiate, though he did not identify the interlocutors. Trump’s stance on the Pope: He dismissed criticism of Pope Leo XIV as unwarranted, labeling the pontiff "weak" on key issues, including Iran. Threat to Iranian vessels: Trump warned that U.S. forces will neutralise any Iranian fast‑attack ships that approach the blockade zone. Domestic political pressure: Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, are pushing for a new vote to limit the president’s war‑making powers, citing rising U.S. fuel prices. Protester arrests in New York: Approximately 90 demonstrators, including whistleblower Chelsea Manning and actor Hari Nef, were detained during a Manhattan traffic‑stop protest against the war and U.S. arms sales to Israel. Israel’s buffer‑zone push: Israeli forces continue ground and air operations in southern Lebanon, razing structures in border towns such as Naqoura to create a security buffer. Hezbollah retaliation: The group has intensified rocket and drone attacks on Israeli positions in locations like Bint Jbeil and Biyyada. Accusations of a "Greater Israel": Hezbollah chief Hassan Qassem accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing an expansionist agenda backed by the United States. Diplomatic tension with Italy: Israel summoned the Italian ambassador after Italy’s foreign minister condemned Israeli attacks on Beirut as "unacceptable". Casualties in Lebanon: Israeli operations have raised the death toll in southern Lebanon since March 2 to at least 2,089, including a recent drone strike that killed two civilians near Nabatieh. Public opinion in Lebanon: Lebanese citizens are divided, with some weary of the conflict and hopeful for diplomacy, while others distrust Israel’s intentions. Canadian casualty: Canada’s foreign minister confirmed that a Canadian national died in southern Lebanon, though details remain scarce. Energy implications: Reuters reported that a Chinese‑owned tanker, sanctioned by the United States, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, underscoring the challenges of enforcement. Oil market outlook: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that oil prices could keep climbing until "meaningful ship traffic" resumes through the strait.