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European airports have issued an urgent warning that jet fuel shortages could materialise within the next three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.Airports Council International (ACI) Europe addressed a letter to EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, stating the bloc is only three weeks away from a systemic shortage.The threat is linked to the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, which has effectively shut the strait—a key shipping lane for Gulf oil exports—pushing Brent crude to around $96 per barrel, up from roughly $72 before the hostilities.ACI warned that without a stable resumption of traffic through Hormuz within three weeks, a “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”Jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled year‑on‑year, reaching $1,650 per tonne according to IATA data. Europe’s price surge stands at 138%, while Asia has seen a 163% increase.Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary highlighted that the United Kingdom, heavily dependent on Kuwaiti supplies, is the most vulnerable market in Europe.Shipping data from Vortexa shows the last Gulf‑origin jet fuel cargo for Europe is due in Copenhagen tomorrow, following a partial delivery to Rotterdam earlier this week. The final tanker bound for the UK arrived in Kent on Tuesday.More than 60% of Europe’s jet fuel traditionally comes from Gulf refineries, with over 40% shipped via the Hormuz corridor. The blockade forces European buyers into direct competition with Asian carriers for alternative cargoes.Australian investment bank Macquarie notes that jet fuel lacks the pipeline alternatives available to crude oil, making the market especially vulnerable. Even if shipments resume, the refined‑product market could take two to three months to normalise, lagging behind crude markets.Airlines have already begun trimming schedules and raising fares, a trend that will feed into broader inflationary pressures. A genuine shortage could force travelers and businesses to postpone trips and shipments, deepening economic damage.ACI called for proactive EU monitoring and action, warning that the peak summer travel season—critical to many economies—could be hit hard if fuel supplies falter.IATA director‑general Willie Walsh cautioned that even with the strait reopened, restoring adequate supply will take months due to disrupted refining capacity in the Middle East. IATA had previously projected a 4.9% year‑on‑year growth in passenger traffic for 2026.

The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.

Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for global oil shipments, is open but with certain limitations. The strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is a crucial route for oil exports from countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.The new restrictions come amid heightened tensions in the region, with Iran seeking to assert its control over the strategic waterway. Despite the limitations, shipping and trade activities are expected to continue, albeit with increased scrutiny and regulation.

Saudi Arabia has halted operational activities at several energy facilities due to recent attacks, according to the Saudi Press Agency. The attacks targeted oil, gas, and electricity sites in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Yanbu Industrial City.The attacks resulted in the death of one Saudi national from the industrial security personnel of the Saudi energy company, with seven others injured. The attacks have reduced the kingdom's oil production capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day.The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, have faced repeated drone and missile attacks from Iran over recent weeks. These attacks have contributed to increased volatility in the oil market, affecting the security of supply for consuming countries.Oil prices have jumped upward as the world weighs the prospects of a shaky Iran-US ceasefire and possibly the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point that Iran has effectively blocked during the conflict.The ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump, has been placed in doubt due to Israel's ongoing daily attacks on Lebanon and Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries. Several leaders around the world have called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.

Thousands of Iranians have gathered nationwide to honour the memory of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who governed the nation for nearly 40 years until his death in recent US-Israeli strikes that sparked the latest Middle East conflict.The national tribute commenced at 9:40am (06:10 GMT), the exact time Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 at his Tehran residence, along with several other senior Iranian officials.State television broadcast footage showing thousands participating in memorial rallies across Iran on Thursday, with many carrying portraits of the late leader in cities including Urmia in the northwest, Gorgan in the northeast, and the capital Tehran.His successor, son Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained out of public view since before the war began, and was not expected to attend the nationwide commemorative events held Thursday.The attack initiated the Middle East conflict that has since engulfed the region, with Iran responding by targeting US assets and allies across the Gulf and launching strikes against Israel.Due to the ongoing war, a formal state funeral for the late supreme leader has yet to be held.

Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, is preparing to host critical talks between US and Iranian officials this weekend, in a bid to revive a faltering ceasefire and bring an end to the devastating conflict in the Middle East.The negotiations, scheduled to begin on Saturday, will be led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with Pakistani officials facilitating the discussions.The talks are taking place against a backdrop of escalating tensions in the region, with Israel's intensified bombing of Lebanon and Iran's attacks on its Gulf neighbors. A two-week ceasefire was agreed upon by both Washington and Tehran, facilitated by Pakistan, but it is already under strain.Key issues on the agenda include Iran's 10-point proposal for peace, which calls for Iranian oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of US combat forces from the Middle East, and a halt to military operations against allied armed groups. The US has not formally accepted these terms, but President Trump has described the plan as 'workable'.One of the major obstacles to a lasting settlement is Israel's continued aggression in Lebanon, which has resulted in over 200 deaths. Iran has warned that it may abandon the ceasefire if Israeli strikes continue, while the US has insisted that the ceasefire terms do not cover Lebanon.Despite the challenges, analysts believe that a modicum of agreement between the US and Iran on key issues, such as the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz, may be possible. However, Israel's absence from the talks is seen as a significant structural challenge to a lasting settlement.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has become the focal point of the Israel‑U.S. war on Iran that began in February. In peacetime the narrow waterway handled about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments without any tolls, but the conflict has turned it into a contested zone. After a series of Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran retaliated by targeting merchant vessels it deemed hostile, effectively shutting the passage and triggering one of the most severe energy‑distribution crises in recent memory. While a two‑week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was declared on Tuesday, Tehran has issued a set of official terms that would govern the strait moving forward. According to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghi, safe passage will be allowed in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and subject to technical limitations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has even published a new navigation map that pushes traffic farther north, away from the traditional route near Oman’s coast, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines. Central to Tehran’s 10‑point peace proposal is the idea of charging fees for strait usage. Iranian media report that the plan could levy up to $2 million per vessel—a sum to be shared with Oman—or a charge of $1 per barrel of oil shipped. The revenue would allegedly fund reconstruction of military and civilian infrastructure damaged by the U.S.–Israeli campaign. Oman has publicly rejected any toll scheme, with Transport Minister Said Al‑Maawali reminding that the country has already signed all relevant international maritime transport agreements that prohibit such fees. International law adds another layer of complexity. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) prohibits levying charges for mere passage through international straits, allowing fees only for services like navigation assistance or port use. Neither the United States nor Iran have ratified UNCLOS, but the principle remains a benchmark for maritime norms. Analysts suggest a possible workaround: charging for de‑mining and safety services rather than for passage itself, which could be permissible under existing legal frameworks. The proposal has sparked diplomatic pushback. At the United Nations Security Council, Bahrain led a resolution urging coordinated reopening of the strait, backed by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. The resolution passed with 11 of 15 votes, but was vetoed by Russia and China, who argued it unfairly targeted Iran and ignored the initial strikes. Beyond the region, the United States is unlikely to accept indefinite tolls. Former President Donald Trump, who announced the ceasefire, warned that U.S. forces would remain in the area and threatened to resume attacks if negotiations faltered. American troops are reportedly “hanging around” to assist with traffic buildup, though the extent of their operational control remains unclear. Maritime analyst C. Uday Bhaskar notes that only three to five ships have traversed the strait since the ceasefire began, underscoring the lingering uncertainty for global shippers. He adds that ship owners facing multi‑million‑dollar losses each day may ultimately acquiesce to Iran’s terms, at least temporarily. Should Iran implement a toll regime, the immediate impact would fall on Gulf oil‑producing nations, but the ripple effects could destabilize global energy markets, already strained by supply shocks. Major powers such as the United Kingdom have been coordinating with a coalition of 40 countries to explore alternative mechanisms for reopening the waterway without conceding to tolls. In sum, Iran’s proposed protocol for the Strait of Hormuz introduces a contentious new variable into an already volatile geopolitical landscape, pitting national security interests against established maritime law and the broader stability of world energy supplies.

Djibouti, a one‑million‑strong nation perched on the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait, is set to hold its presidential election on April 10. All signs point to incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh securing a sixth term with little genuine opposition. The country’s strategic location—linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden—makes it a linchpin for global trade and a magnet for foreign military installations. The United States, France, China, Italy and Japan all maintain bases there, earning Djibouti the reputation of hosting the highest concentration of overseas military sites. Officially, Djibouti recognizes French and Arabic, while Somali and Afar are widely spoken among the two main ethnic groups, which together comprise roughly 95% of the population. Islam is practiced by about 94% of residents, and the Djiboutian franc remains the national currency. According to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, 243,471 citizens—about a quarter of the population—are registered to vote, up from roughly 215,000 in the 2021 poll. Historical turnout averages around 67%. IGAD’s eight‑nation bloc has dispatched 17 observers from Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda to monitor the process, with a post‑vote statement slated for April 12. Ismail Omar Guelleh, 78, leads the ruling People’s Rally for Progress. After parliament lifted the 75‑year age ceiling in November and abolished term limits back in 2010, Guelleh is now eligible for another term. Critics label his rule as authoritarian, yet they also acknowledge the relative stability he has maintained in a volatile region. Guelleh’s administration has turned Djibouti’s lack of natural resources into a revenue engine by signing infrastructure deals with China and leasing military facilities to Western powers. In 2017, Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh estimated that the bases generate roughly $125 million annually, with the United States contributing nearly half of that sum. The U.S. installation, Camp Lemonnier, remains the only permanent American base on the continent. The sole challenger, Mohamed Farah Samatar, runs under the Unified Democratic Centre after breaking away from the ruling party. His campaign slogan—“another Djibouti is possible”—has resonated only modestly, and observers such as Horn‑of‑Africa expert Sonia le Gouriellec describe the contest as a “token competition”. Human‑rights advocates echo this sentiment, calling the election a “masquerade” and a foregone conclusion. Key issues dominate the discourse. Democratic freedoms have eroded; opposition parties have boycotted elections since 2016, and Guelleh captured over 90% of the vote in 2021. The country ranks 168th out of 180 in the 2025 Reporters Without Borders press‑freedom index, and allegations of corruption and nepotism persist, including speculation that Guelleh’s stepson, Naguib Abdallah Kamil, is being groomed for succession. Economically, Djibouti’s reliance on Chinese financing is creating fiscal strain. By 2026 the nation owed China roughly $1.2 billion in loans, prompting the IMF to label its debt profile “in distress and unsustainable”. Massive infrastructure projects—most notably a railway to Ethiopia—have failed to curb poverty, with 73% of the youth unemployed. The country’s lifeline is its port system, which handles virtually all of Ethiopia’s maritime trade, amounting to about $2 billion in annual revenue. Ethiopia’s recent flirtation with a Somaliland port deal threatened Djibouti’s monopoly, though a Turkey‑mediated agreement in late 2024 redirected Ethiopia toward a “reliable and sustainable” sea corridor with Somalia. In sum, the upcoming election is less about a competitive political showdown and more about reaffirming a status quo that intertwines Djibouti’s geopolitical leverage, foreign‑military income, and mounting debt challenges.

Lebanon has declared a national day of mourning following a devastating wave of Israeli attacks that killed at least 254 people and injured over 1,165 in a single day. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has mobilized 'all of Lebanon's political and diplomatic resources to stop the Israeli killing machine.'Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, a position echoed by US Vice President JD Vance, who said, 'We never made that promise.'Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated the ceasefire, claimed the deal included a pause in fighting in Lebanon. However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Washington must choose between a ceasefire or 'continued war via Israel,' emphasizing that it 'cannot have both.'Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a halt to Israeli attacks in Lebanon was a key condition of Iran's 10-point plan for securing an end to the Middle East war. However, a US official stated that Iran's published ceasefire plan is not the same set of conditions agreed on by the White House.US Vice President JD Vance will lead the country's delegation for talks with Iran in Pakistan, while French President Emmanuel Macron has urged that Lebanon be included in the ceasefire as the 'best path to peace.'The conflict has also affected the Gulf region, with Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain reporting damage and disruptions from Iranian strikes. The situation remains volatile, with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that Israel is prepared to 'return to battle' if necessary.