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The UK is bracing for a potential third inflationary shock in less than a decade as the conflict between Iran and the US threatens to disrupt oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, is at risk of being blocked, which could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. The impact of such a disruption would be felt globally, with Asia being particularly affected as it buys 80% of the oil transported through the strait. Countries in the region are already experiencing the effects, with governments imposing limits on driving and shortening working weeks to conserve energy. Populations are struggling with dramatic hikes in food prices and shortages of petrol and diesel. In Bangladesh, the government reportedly believes it will run out of oil and gas within weeks. To conserve fuel, some temples in Thailand have stopped cremations. The energy-supply storm may well hit the UK's shores just before next month's elections, prompting Keir Starmer to call Cobra meetings and Rachel Reeves to summon business leaders into Downing Street. The poorest households will be hit hardest by the inflationary shock, with food producers predicting prices will rocket nearly 10% this year. According to calculations done exclusively for this column by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), that will add £127 to the average household's annual food bill. However, the ECIU also notes that because the poorest spend proportionately more of their money on food, they will be hit far worse. The author suggests that the UK needs to adopt a more progressive approach to utility pricing, with a move away from fossil fuels and from the current system of ownership. The days of relying on a growth miracle are over, and the UK needs to focus on addressing the inequality and regressive utility pricing that will exacerbate the impact of the inflationary shock.

Cricket Australia released its 21‑man contract roster for the 2026‑27 season, rewarding most Ashes‑winning players but leaving out Sam Konstas and veteran all‑rounder Glenn Maxwell as the board prepares for an unusually dense calendar. Fast‑bowler Brendan Doggett, who debuted in the opening Ashes Test at Perth last November, secured his first national contract. Meanwhile, opener Jake Weatherald retained an upgraded deal despite a modest series average of 22.33 runs. Both Michael Neser and spinner Todd Murphy were again awarded full contracts, reflecting the board’s focus on depth ahead of a schedule that kicks off with a two‑match home Test series against Bangladesh in August. Following the Bangladesh series, Australia will embark on ODI tours of Zimbabwe and South Africa, a home white‑ball series versus England, and a marathon stretch of 10 Test matches in 14 weeks. The latter includes contests against New Zealand, India and the historic 150th Anniversary Test at the MCG. Konstas, who burst onto the scene with a memorable 60‑run debut against India on Boxing Day 2024, failed to build on that promise, accumulating only 103 runs across nine further Test innings for an average of 16.30. The lack of consistency cost him a place on the new list. Despite the setback, selector chair George Bailey stressed that the 20‑year‑old’s journey is far from over. “He is highly talented and still on a development path,” Bailey said. “We saw encouraging signs toward the end of the season, with more consistent starts in the Sheffield Shield.” Bailey added that Konstas could feature in the upcoming Australia A tour to India, noting the board’s continued interest in his progress. Alongside Konstas and Maxwell, the contract cuts also affected Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson and Matt Short. Long‑time opener Usman Khawaja remains absent following his retirement. Weatherald’s contract renewal signals the selectors’ confidence in his potential to open the batting against Bangladesh, although Bailey cautioned that final selections will be made closer to each series, with extensive camp periods in Brisbane to fine‑tune the squad. Current contracted players: Xavier Bartlett, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Brendan Doggett, Nathan Ellis, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster, Adam Zampa.

Somalia's national army has taken control of the strategic city of Baidoa, the largest in Southwest state, prompting the regional leader to resign. The city's takeover comes two weeks after the Southwest state administration announced it was severing ties with the federal government.The city of Baidoa, located about 245 km northwest of the capital Mogadishu, is home to international peacekeepers and humanitarian agencies in an area affected by drought, conflict, and displacement.Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, the President of Southwest State, announced his resignation on Facebook, stating that he had been in office for more than seven years. His resignation comes days after he was re-elected for another five-year term, an election the federal government deemed illegal.Earlier on Monday, Somalia's federal forces entered Baidoa, taking full control of the city and marking the start of a political transition. A local elder described the city as calm but a ghost town.The Southwest state's transition began with the appointment of its finance minister, Ahmed Mohamed Hussein, as acting president through a formal decree. The central government in Mogadishu hailed the state's transition and urged calm and unity.The federal government emphasized that no acts of retaliation will be tolerated, underscoring its commitment to protecting lives and property during this sensitive political transition.The dispute with Southwest is the latest sign of strain in Somalia's fragile federal system, where disputes over elections and the balance of power between Mogadishu and regional administrations repeatedly open up political fault lines.

On a surprisingly quiet evening at Wembley, England’s 1-0 defeat to Japan unfolded in a half‑hour that was more ceremonial than competitive. The opening thirty minutes were fluffy and formless, offering little in the way of decisive play but plenty of clues about the team’s underlying issues.For manager Thomas Tuchel, the concession of the opening goal will likely linger in post‑match analysis sessions. The loss adds another chapter to what critics describe as the “never‑ending story of England footballdom,” where each friendly serves as a diagnostic test rather than a showcase of progress.Injuries and omissions forced Tuchel to field a makeshift side featuring Phil Foden, Morgan Rogers, Cole Palmer and Kobbie Mainoo. The line‑up lacked traditional power runners and aerial threats, resembling a “false nine” formation that felt experimental but ultimately failed to generate a clear tactical identity.Japan’s solitary goal came after Palmer lost possession in an attacking area, leaving a void that England’s midfield could not fill. The Japanese attack exploited the space, threading a pass through the centre of England’s formation and scoring with ease. The goal underscored England’s lack of pressure and positional awareness in the defensive third.Despite the disappointment, the match offered a glimpse of individual talent. Harry Maguire and Dan Burn were deployed on set‑pieces, and Jude Bellingham remained an unused asset, highlighting the depth of options available for the upcoming World Cup.Atmospherically, the match resembled a village fête more than a high‑stakes international fixture. Pre‑match entertainment featured a medley of music, fireworks and quirky performances, creating a backdrop that contrasted sharply with the on‑field performance.Analysts noted that England’s approach felt like an attempt to dress up “borrowed tactical clothes” rather than a coherent game plan. The lack of a defined structure left the side vulnerable to Japan’s disciplined, technically sound play.Looking ahead, Tuchel now faces the task of reconciling his experimental selections with the need for a pragmatic, battle‑ready squad. The friendly serves as a reminder that, while England possesses individual brilliance, the team must resolve its tactical ambiguities if it hopes to contend seriously for the 2026 World Cup.

The United States and Israel have launched a war against Iran that many observers label a monumental breach of international law, echoing the illegal aggression that began with Israel’s campaign in Gaza.According to recent reports, the Pentagon is ready to commit thousands of ground troops to the region, signaling a potential escalation that could last for weeks.Analysts warn that the conflict is poorly planned, especially given Iran’s capacity to disrupt shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The resulting choke‑choke on energy and essential commodities is already pushing the global economy toward a precarious edge, with Asian and African nations bearing the brunt of the fallout.History offers a stark warning. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq on the premise of a swift campaign, a promise later proved hollow. The war extended for nearly nine years, costing $1.92 trillion in U.S. taxpayer money, claiming over 4,500 American lives, and contributing to more than half a million Iraqi deaths by 2006.Back then, the coalition assembled roughly 250,000 troops—including 150,000 from the United States and 46,000 from the United Kingdom—to invade a country far smaller than Iran. Today, the U.S. maintains about 50,000 troops in the Middle East, a modest increase of 10,000 over its usual presence, yet the objectives being discussed—occupying Iranian territory, seizing uranium stockpiles, and controlling key islands—appear overly ambitious.Israel’s role is also intensifying. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an expansion of Israel’s security buffer in southern Lebanon, a region Israel occupied from 1982 to 2000. Since the 2024 cease‑fire with Hezbollah, Israel has reportedly violated the agreement around 10,000 times in its first year, suggesting that a weakened Iran could serve as a strategic boon for Israeli ambitions in Lebanon.For the United States, the war risks becoming a “Venezuela‑style” takeover that is far more complex than anticipated. As the conflict drags on and the prospect of U.S. ground combat looms, public support—already low—could erode further, potentially jeopardizing the political standing of President Trump ahead of the mid‑term elections.Critics argue that repeating the Iraq‑war playbook may not only fail to achieve its stated goals but could also hand strategic advantage to rival powers such as Russia or China, reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East.

The average price of fuel in the US has surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time in four years, reaching $4.02 per gallon nationwide, according to AAA data. This significant increase comes as the conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, boosting oil prices and putting pressure on drivers.On the west coast, drivers are facing even higher prices, with California averaging $5.89 per gallon and Washington state averaging $5.35 per gallon. The surge in oil prices has been driven by the Brent crude price hitting $115.48 per barrel, a global benchmark for oil prices.President Donald Trump has faced criticism for his handling of the situation, with many arguing that the rising fuel prices will hurt his chances in the upcoming midterm elections. In response, Trump has tried to downplay the impact of higher oil prices, claiming that the US will benefit as a whole due to its status as the largest oil producer in the world.However, Trump has also acknowledged that fuel prices will likely drop once the conflict with Iran is resolved. The president plans to withdraw US forces from the war "at some point," but emphasized that other countries will need to take on more responsibility to address the situation.

Demonstrators took to the streets of cities across the United States for the first 'No Kings' protest since the joint US and Israeli war against Iran began one month ago. The protests, which mark the third round of nationwide 'No Kings' demonstrations, saw over 3,300 events planned across all 50 states, with large crowds expected in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC.The main event was scheduled for the Minneapolis-St Paul area in Minnesota, known as the Twin Cities, which became a focal point for Trump's hardline immigration crackdown in December. More than 3,000 federal immigration agents descended on the Twin Cities, leading to accusations of excessive force during deportation raids.In January, agents shot and killed two US citizens, Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good, prompting nationwide outrage and calls for reform. Dozens of lawsuits have been filed as a result of the operation, which was wound down in February.Progressive Senator Bernie Sanders addressed attendees, and rock icon Bruce Springsteen performed at the event, along with folk singer Joan Baez. Actor Robert De Niro told the crowd in Minnesota in a pre-recorded address, 'You've shown bravery in the face of armed attack by government thugs, and you stood together and ran them out of town'.The previous two 'No Kings' marches took place in June and October and drew millions of people. Trump responded to the October protest by posting an AI-generated video depicting himself dumping faeces on the protesters. The US is currently in the midst of campaigns for its pivotal midterm elections in November, which will see Trump's Republican Party seek to defend its majorities in both chambers of Congress.Democrats are hoping to gain seats as Trump's popularity droops. Sanders was among the speakers who reminded protest attendees of the importance of the upcoming vote, saying, 'We will not allow this country to descend into authoritarianism or oligarchy. In America, we the people will rule'.

For the second consecutive year, US Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the leading candidate in the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a prominent right-wing gathering in the United States. The poll, which is not necessarily an accurate predictor of the Republican nominee, saw Vance secure 53 percent of the votes from nearly 1,600 attendees. This significant lead highlights Vance's strong support within the conservative base. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another senior official under President Donald Trump, showed a notable improvement from last year's poll, where he tied for fourth place. Rubio garnered 35 percent of the vote, indicating a rising popularity among CPAC attendees. The straw poll results were announced on stage at the conference, which took place over four days and featured speakers such as Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, sons of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro. CPAC's annual conference tends to attract attendees from the political right, and this year's event was no exception. The poll results come at a critical time for the Republican Party, with less than eight months until the midterm elections in the US. The party is hoping to defend its congressional majorities amid challenges such as the ongoing war in Iran and rising gas prices. Vance, a veteran and former single-term senator from Ohio, is seen as representing a more isolationist branch of Trump's 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) base. He has been critical of US involvement in foreign conflicts but has defended Trump's decision to join Israel in joint strikes on Iran. Rubio, on the other hand, has a longer political resume and is viewed as more hawkish towards regime change, particularly in Cuba. Both Vance and Rubio had previously criticized Trump before joining his administration. While the CPAC straw poll has historically shown a realignment in the Republican Party around Trump's politics, it is not always an accurate predictor of future election outcomes. The party's consolidation around Trump's agenda has led to the marginalization of moderate and critical voices.

The war in Iran has sent shockwaves through the UK economy, causing gilt yields to surge to their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis. This increase in borrowing costs has significant implications for Chancellor Rachel Reeves' fiscal policy, potentially eroding the £23bn in 'headroom' she had built up against her fiscal rules.Reeves had hoped that this cushion would allow her to focus on tackling inflation and stimulating growth, but with oil prices up 50% since the onset of the war, investors are now expecting higher inflation and interest rates. As a result, the government's cost of borrowing is set to rise, impacting its ability to fund public spending.The yield on 10-year gilts has jumped to nearly 5%, pushing up the cost of borrowing and forcing Reeves to reconsider her spending plans. This development has also raised concerns about the UK's economic fragility and the potential for a Labour leadership contest to be triggered after the May local elections.Economists warn that the chancellor has probably already lost a third to half of her headroom due to the combination of higher inflation, weaker employment, and surging gilt yields. The situation is further complicated by the UK's high debt levels and reliance on global markets, leaving little room for maneuver for any future government.The implications of this crisis extend beyond Reeves, raising questions about the economic pitch of any potential steward of the economy, whether from Labour or other parties. As Angela Rayner considers John Healey as a potential chancellor, the need for a carefully plotted economic policy that balances growth and fiscal responsibility has become increasingly urgent.