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Japan has taken a significant step in its foreign policy by easing its arms export rules, marking a departure from its eight-decade-long pacifist stance. This move comes as trust in US President Donald Trump declines, with him wavering on security commitments to allies and involvement in conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.The Japanese government has approved a record defense budget of $58 billion for 2026, reflecting a push to strengthen military and coastal defenses amid rising global tensions. The new budget forms part of a broader $784 billion national budget for the fiscal year beginning in April 2026.Under the new budget, over $6.2 billion is earmarked to enhance Japan's 'standoff' missile capabilities, including the purchase of domestically produced and upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles. This move is seen as a response to China's growing military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.Japan's key defense contractors, Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric, are hiring staff and adding capacity to capitalize on demand for arms. Countries such as the Philippines and Poland are expected to become customers of Japanese arms.The easing of arms export rules is part of Japan's efforts to shape its own security policy and reduce its military dependence on the US. This shift is driven by the need to build defense supply chains in Asia that do not rely on the US, particularly in light of Washington's preoccupation with wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.Japanese companies are eager to boost sales by selling their products abroad, with Toshiba planning to hire 500 people over the next three years and constructing new testing and manufacturing facilities. The company's vice president, Kenji Kobayashi, noted that 'reputational risk is not what it used to be.'The US has welcomed Japan's initiatives to boost defense spending and take regional security into its own hands, with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth praising Japan's investment in its defense capabilities.

In the midst of Israel's ongoing attacks on Lebanon, which have resulted in the displacement of at least one million people, migrant workers are taking initiative to support their communities. Myra Aragon, a Filipino migrant, runs a community center called Tres Marias in a Beirut suburb, providing meals to around 200 people daily, mostly migrant workers.Aragon's efforts are part of a larger trend of migrant solidarity in Lebanon. With many migrant workers facing restrictions and discrimination due to the country's kafala labor system, they are organizing themselves to help those in need. Tres Marias is one of at least three food kitchens run by migrant workers in Lebanon, serving not only migrants but also occasionally Lebanese families.The war has exacerbated existing challenges for migrant workers, with many facing displacement, discrimination, and limited access to shelters. However, Aragon and others like her are working to provide food and a sense of community to those affected. As Aragon notes, 'Food is unifying... It is a way for people to learn about food from the Philippines, and it makes people feel cared for and seen.'Despite the danger and uncertainty posed by the war, Aragon remains committed to her work, stating, 'This war is a lot worse than the last one... But as the war carries on, I will continue to cook and distribute food to those who need it.'

The Philippines has made a grave accusation against China, claiming that Chinese boats were found with cyanide near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Laboratory tests confirmed the presence of the toxic substance in bottles seized by the Philippine navy last year. Security officials warned that the cyanide could have severe consequences for marine life and potentially weaken the reef that supports a warship Manila grounded on the atoll to reinforce its maritime claim. The use of cyanide is seen as a form of sabotage aimed at killing local fish populations and depriving navy personnel of a vital food source. Cornelio Valencia, spokesperson for the National Security Council, emphasized that the cyanide could damage the reef and compromise the stability of the warship. In response, China's Foreign Ministry dismissed the Philippines' assertions as a 'stunt,' accusing Manila of illegally harassing Chinese fishing boats and staging the incident. The incident is part of a broader maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, with China claiming nearly all of the South China Sea, including areas claimed by other nations. The dispute has led to several confrontations, including a violent incident on June 17, 2024, where a Filipino sailor lost a finger. The Philippines also accused Chinese coastguard ships of firing water cannons at Filipino fishermen in December 2025, injuring three people and damaging two fishing vessels. Despite these tensions, China and the Philippines held high-level talks last month to explore preliminary steps towards oil and gas cooperation and confidence-building measures at sea. However, the Philippine Foreign Ministry noted that the scope of coastguard cooperation would be limited and did not include joint patrols. The South China Sea is a critical waterway, with over $3 trillion in annual ship-borne commerce traveling through it. A 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal found China's sweeping claims had no basis under international law, a decision China rejects.

Protesters in Ireland and Norway have escalated demonstrations against rising fuel costs, turning major highways into blockades and prompting a convoy of lorries to converge on Oslo’s parliament. The unrest is linked to the broader spike in oil prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. In Dublin, hauliers, farmers and other groups have shut down motorways for the fourth consecutive day, causing fuel shortages, traffic chaos and warnings that essential supplies—food, clean water and animal feed—are at risk. The Irish police force, An Garda Síochána, described the blockades as unlawful and warned that continued defiance could lead to arrests. The Irish government has placed the army on standby to clear the obstructions, while the justice minister accused outside actors, including far‑right figures such as Tommy Robinson, of exploiting the protests for political gain. Fuel prices have surged dramatically: Irish diesel has risen from roughly €1.70 per litre to €2.17, and petrol from about €1.74 to €1.97. In Norway, despite a recent fuel‑tax cut on 1 April, diesel prices jumped 23.6 % from February to March, with overall fuel and lubricants up 17.9 %. Statistics Norway noted this as the steepest month‑on‑month increase on record, comparable only to the post‑Ukraine‑invasion spike of spring 2022. Irish Prime Minister Mícheál Martin warned that blockades of the Whitegate refinery and key depots in Galway and Foynes were pushing the country to the brink of turning away oil shipments. He called the situation “unconscionable and “illogical.” In response, Dublin unveiled a €250 million relief package that includes a temporary excise duty cut, an expanded diesel rebate for hauliers and bus operators, and an extended fuel allowance. Nevertheless, industry leaders remain skeptical about the measures’ ability to quell the unrest, and many protesters demand direct talks with ministers. Across the North Sea, Norwegian demonstrators—part of the “Dieselbrølet” (diesel roar) movement—marched a convoy of 70‑80 trucks toward the Storting. Their banners read “nok er nok!” (enough is enough). While only a few vehicles were permitted into Oslo, the show underscored hauliers’ demand for more predictable, lower fuel prices despite Norway’s status as an oil producer. Other nations have taken emergency steps: the Philippines declared a national energy emergency, and France authorized fuel tankers to operate on weekends and holidays until 11 May to stave off shortages. Back in Ireland, the blockade of the sole refinery and depots has left dozens of petrol stations empty, prompting a rush of motorists to fill up before supplies run out. Emergency services report slower response times, and the Irish Medical Organisation warns that delayed care could jeopardise patient health. Courier firm DPD has halted deliveries, and protesters have vowed to remain in Dublin for weeks, with spokesperson John Dallon stating, “If it takes a month, we are prepared to sit here.” The crisis has also forced the Irish Taoiseach to postpone a trade mission to Canada, highlighting the domestic political fallout of the fuel‑price turmoil.

Donald Trump’s demand that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz has an immediate impact on U.S. gasoline prices, but analysts warn that a prolonged conflict will push energy costs higher across the globe, far beyond the fuel pump. Systemic increases in power prices and disrupted supply chains are set to compress margins for industries worldwide; in the United States, the effect could be especially damaging to the fragile economics of the AI boom. Oil‑importing nations in the Global South are already feeling the strain: Egypt has imposed curfews, Indonesia is trialling work‑from‑home Fridays, and the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency. While the United States, as a major oil exporter, can partially insulate itself, the country cannot escape the global rise in energy costs. Experts predict that price pressure will linger for months even if the strait reopens within days. Companies are revisiting cash‑flow forecasts, and the AI sector—characterised by energy‑intensive model training and debt‑laden expansion—faces a particularly acute risk. OpenAI chief Sam Altman attempted to downplay environmental concerns, likening the energy required to train an AI model to the cumulative food intake over a human’s 20‑year development. The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee warned that rising energy costs could depress AI share prices, noting that investors were already uneasy about the sector’s heavy reliance on debt financing and uncertain return prospects before the war began. "The conflict could increase these concerns, particularly given the energy‑intensive nature of the supply chain for key components and the operation of datacentres," the committee said. World Trade Organization chief economist Robert Staiger echoed this view, cautioning that a prolonged period of high energy prices could "crimp" AI investment. He highlighted that AI‑related goods accounted for 70% of U.S. investment growth in the first three‑quarters of last year. A forensic note from US law firm Quinn Emanuel revealed that the AI sector generated roughly $60 billion in revenue last year while committing $400 billion to capital expenditure. The financing structure mirrors the 2008 crisis, with off‑balance‑sheet special purpose vehicles and asset‑backed securities playing a central role. Leading "hyperscalers" and infrastructure providers such as CoreWeave are borrowing enormous sums to build out datacentres, although some analysts argue that many projects lag behind their lofty promises. Much of this borrowing comes from private‑credit lenders, making total liabilities opaque and challenging for regulators—an issue the Bank of England has repeatedly flagged. Complex financing arrangements see datacentres owned by special purpose vehicles, debt pooled and sold to pension funds, and other layered structures that obscure true exposure. Quinn Emanuel estimates that $120 billion of datacentre debt has been moved off‑balance sheets in the past two years. The firm warns that distress at any single node could cascade through the tightly interconnected AI ecosystem. Extended higher energy costs, combined with volatile interest rates and weaker consumer demand—both likely fallout from the Middle East war—could trigger that distress. The fundamental question remains: can the AI sector generate sufficient revenue to justify its sky‑high valuations? Even modest energy price hikes may force a market rethink, with potential spill‑over effects across U.S. markets and beyond. As the article concludes, the economic fallout may be yet another unintended consequence of Trump’s aggressive stance on Iran, unleashing forces beyond his control.

A magnitude 7.4 earthquake erupted in the Northern Molucca Sea off the coast of Ternate, Indonesia, resulting in at least one fatality and an initial tsunami alert that was later rescinded.The United States Geological Survey (USGS) clarified that the tremor, first reported as magnitude 7.8, actually occurred at a depth of 35 km, deeper than the early estimate of 10 km. Apart from the confirmed death, no other immediate injuries were reported.The quake’s epicentre lay roughly 120 km (75 mi) from Ternate in the North Maluku province, prompting local authorities in Ternate and nearby Tidore to ready evacuation plans. Metro TV broadcast footage of damaged structures across the area.In Manado, North Sulawesi, a building collapse buried a resident, leading to the sole confirmed death; a rescue official added that another person sustained a leg injury.The Hawaii‑based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) warned of potentially hazardous waves within a 1,000‑km radius, affecting coastlines of Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia.Within thirty minutes, Indonesia’s BMKG agency recorded wave heights of up to 75 cm in North Minahasa and 20 cm in Bitung, both on Sulawesi’s northern shore, with an additional 30 cm rise in North Maluku.Just over two hours after the event, the PTWC lifted the tsunami warning, declaring that the threat had passed.Indonesia’s position on the Pacific Ring of Fire makes it especially vulnerable to such seismic activity, underscoring the importance of rapid monitoring and public‑safety measures.

Britain is confronting the most severe energy shock since the early 1970s, as exports of oil, gas and fertiliser from the Middle East have abruptly stopped. The government says a response plan exists, but details remain vague. It is unclear whether the UK is better prepared for the fallout from Donald Trump’s war with Iran than it was for the pandemic six years ago. Ministers are sending a "we have your back" message to the public while simultaneously signalling to financial markets that any assistance will be limited and targeted. Contingency planning is especially difficult when dealing with an unpredictable leader like Trump. Britain’s heavy reliance on imported energy and food means that reassurance can only hold for a short time. The economy entered the conflict already on shaky ground: unemployment rose steadily throughout 2025 and growth stalled to a virtual standstill in the final quarter of that year. The sudden loss of Middle‑East energy and fertiliser supplies now adds a colossal supply shock. Last year, Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hikes served as a dry run for a far more serious confrontation. This time, the war is taking place in a region that is both volatile and crucial to the global economy. In the past two weeks, the repercussions have been felt across Asia – the Philippines declared a state of emergency, Sri Lanka introduced a four‑day work week, and South Korea announced budget measures to help households cope with soaring energy bills. The continent is the most dependent on Gulf‑exported energy, making the impact there the sharpest. The International Monetary Fund warned that the shock will drive higher prices and slower growth worldwide. Shortages push fuel and food prices up, eroding disposable income, prompting businesses to cut staff, and increasing the risk of recession. The UK, already projected to be one of the poorest‑performing major economies in 2026, could see its fresh graduate cohort face a brutal job market. Trump’s claim that the war could end within two or three weeks appears desperate. Even a rapid cease‑fire would leave substantial collateral damage, creating a stagflation scenario that could hurt Republican prospects in the upcoming mid‑term elections. British officials hope a swift resolution will limit economic damage, allowing a short‑term inflation spike to subside and the Bank of England to resume interest‑rate cuts. Treasury plans include scrapping the planned autumn fuel‑duty rise and providing targeted help for the poorest households, though the path is unlikely to be that simple. Currently, the Treasury is hesitant to act boldly for fear of unsettling bond markets. History – the 2008 banking collapse and the 2020 pandemic – shows that governments can act decisively without triggering a market backlash, using tools such as aggressive rate cuts, increased borrowing, and quantitative easing. The Bank of England has warned of a "substantial negative supply shock" and is expected to soften markets for future rate cuts, which are inevitable. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could mitigate labour‑market pain by reversing recent increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions, subsidising public transport, and even lowering speed limits to conserve energy. The war, like the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, underscores the fragility of global supply chains and the need for greater British self‑reliance. Investing heavily in renewable energy is essential, but the UK also imports roughly 40% of its food and has not run a manufacturing trade surplus since 1982. In a world of disrupted supply lines, a robust plan for economic self‑sufficiency is more urgent than ever. Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist.

The Iran war has triggered a massive energy shortfall in Asia, forcing governments to ramp up their use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Countries across the region, including South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, India, and Bangladesh, are trying to compensate for a drop-off in imported energy, much of which comes from the Middle East.Climate experts have warned that the increased use of coal will have a devastating environmental impact, and that the energy crisis should be a wake-up call for governments to invest in renewables. The crisis has highlighted the importance of renewable energy for energy security in Asia.The global market has flipped within four weeks from a healthy supply surplus to a severe deficit, leading to price spikes and fuel shortages. Almost 30bn cubic meters of LNG has been removed from global supply chains, with over 80% of this loss affecting the Indo-Pacific region.Experts warn that it will take years to recover LNG supplies and that the crisis will have a lasting impact on the energy landscape in Asia. Governments are racing to overcome shortfalls, with some countries introducing measures to reduce energy consumption, such as four-day workweeks and remote work arrangements.

Jeepney driver Arturo Modelo of Manila says his daily earnings have collapsed to roughly one‑third of the usual 600 pesos after fuel costs surged, leaving him unable even to afford his child’s lunch money.Modelo joined a two‑day transport strike on Thursday and Friday, hoping to make a “deaf government” listen to the plight of drivers who can no longer earn a living on the road.The iconic jeepney, born from repurposed U.S. military vehicles after World War II, remains the most affordable commuter option in the Philippines, yet its operators are now bearing the brunt of a global oil shock.Last week, jeepney owners walked out, and this week the protest expanded to include bus, taxi, minibus and motorcycle‑taxi drivers. Nearly a dozen national transport groups marched to the Presidential Palace demanding price caps on petrol and diesel, the removal of fuel taxes, and stricter regulation of the oil sector.Organised under the No to Oil Price Hike Coalition, the demonstrators also blamed “American aggression” against Iran for the domestic economic distress, with union chair Jerome Adonis likening the impact to “a bomb dropped on us”.In response, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday night – the first such declaration in the country’s history. The emergency, set to last one year, grants the government powers to accelerate fuel procurement, curb hoarding and curb profiteering.Fuel prices remain among the highest in Southeast Asia: diesel is now about $2.3 per litre and petrol close to $2 per litre in the Philippines, versus $2.7 and $2.35 respectively in Singapore, while Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand report roughly half those prices.To alleviate the burden, the administration has introduced a 5,000‑peso ($83) subsidy for motorcycle‑taxi drivers and other public‑transport workers, and disbursed 2.5 billion pesos (≈$414 million) in fuel subsidies to roughly 300,000 transport employees. Unions claim the sector employs about two million people, leaving many without aid.During the strike, picket lines appeared at 85 commuter terminals, and jeepneys were scarce on Manila’s usually congested streets. Authorities, however, argued that the action did not cripple the city’s transport network.Union leader Mody Floranda of the Piston group accused President Marcos of favouring oil companies, saying the president could issue an executive order to cap prices but has yet to act decisively.Energy officials note that 98 % of the Philippines’ crude oil is imported and that the country’s high 12 % value‑added tax, excise duties and a deregulated market – shaped by the Oil Industry Deregulation Law of 1998 – amplify price volatility. Professor Krista Yu of De La Salle University highlighted the nation’s limited refining capacity as a structural weakness.Chief economist Emmanuel Leyco warned that the law allowing industry‑driven price adjustments “is the main culprit”, especially as “half the population is poor”.Amid mounting pressure, Marcos signed legislation permitting the temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes when crude oil prices exceed a set threshold. Opposition lawmaker Renee Co urged that the 12 % VAT also be removed, calling both taxes “regressive” burdens on ordinary Filipinos.Co and other lawmakers have also filed a resolution demanding an immediate end to the U.S.‑Israel‑Iran conflict, linking regional geopolitics to the domestic fuel crisis.