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The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide temporary relief, but the oil crisis triggered by their conflict is far from over. After 40 days of fighting, the two nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran's 10-point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. The strait has been effectively closed since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices dropped to $92 on Wednesday, down from over $110 for much of the war. However, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs. With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines.Economists warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.Shipping data shows that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent. Iraq's crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.The 206 million barrels of Gulf oil lost since the start of the war would fill approximately 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the workhorse supertankers of the global energy trade. A single VLCC stretches nearly 330 metres (1,080 feet) in length, nearly the same height as the Eiffel Tower in Paris.To put that in more practical terms, if you drove a pick-up truck that averages 24 miles per gallon (or 10 litres per 100km), one barrel of crude oil would carry you about 730km or 450 miles. That is about the distance from New York City to Cleveland, Ohio.For much of the war, oil has traded above $100 per barrel, hitting a peak of nearly $128 on April 2. The value of 206 million lost export barrels at various oil prices is significant, with Brent crude being the global benchmark.

Iran and the United States each declared a triumph after agreeing to a two‑week ceasefire that was announced just before President Donald Trump’s deadline to force Tehran’s surrender. The conflict, which began on 28 February, has already claimed 2,076 lives in U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and has caused thousands more deaths across the region. The fighting has also shocked global energy markets, stranding oil tankers and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would halt bombing Iran after receiving a “workable” 10‑point ceasefire proposal, adding that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to.” Iran, for its part, said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, even as some citizens denounced the government’s perceived capitulation. Both parties are set to resume Pakistan‑mediated talks in Islamabad on Friday, though analysts warn that earlier red lines may resurface. Key terms of the Tuesday agreement: the United States will suspend air strikes for two weeks, citing that it has already achieved its military objectives and is close to a “definitive agreement concerning long‑term peace.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, pledged to halt “defensive operations” and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while also indicating willingness to fund reconstruction from fees collected on transiting ships. Domestic reaction in Iran remains volatile. University of Tehran professor Foad Izadi noted that the public’s pessimism stems from two prior escalations—June’s 12‑day war and the February 28 strikes—both of which occurred amid ongoing negotiations. Earlier demands: The United States had presented a 15‑point plan on 25 March, calling for a 30‑day ceasefire, immediate reopening of the Strait, Iran’s de‑commissioning of its nuclear facilities, a total ban on uranium enrichment, handover of nuclear stockpiles to the IAEA, cessation of support to regional proxies, strict limits on ballistic missiles, and a full lift of sanctions, among other items. Iran responded with a 10‑point proposal that emphasized a non‑aggression commitment from the United States, controlled passage through the Strait, acceptance of its enrichment programme, comprehensive sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, compensation for war damages via shipping fees, and a binding UN Security Council resolution. Both sides have already made concessions. Iran moved from demanding a permanent ceasefire to accepting a two‑week pause, and it shifted from insisting on reparations to proposing reconstruction funding from Strait fees. The United States, meanwhile, has softened its demand for an “unconditional” Iranian surrender and has not reiterated its earlier insistence on dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities. One of the most contentious issues remains the status of Lebanon. While Pakistan’s prime minister said the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any such inclusion, and Israel launched a major bombing campaign in Beirut shortly thereafter, killing hundreds. Looking ahead, analysts highlight that the United States is unlikely to concede on the complete withdrawal of its roughly 50,000 troops stationed across 19 Middle Eastern sites—a demand Tehran has placed on the table. The outcome of the upcoming talks will hinge on whether Washington can accommodate Tehran’s broader political and economic requests without compromising its strategic objectives.

President Donald Trump has stated that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, contradicting Pakistan's claim that the truce covers the entire region. This development comes after Israel launched a massive assault on Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of casualties in densely populated areas.Trump described the Israeli conflict with Hezbollah as a “separate skirmish,” indicating that the US-Iran agreement does not extend to Lebanon due to Hezbollah's presence. “Because of Hezbollah, they were not included in the deal,” he told PBS. “That’ll get taken care of, too. It’s all right.”The exclusion of Lebanon from the truce risks jeopardizing the ceasefire across the region. Iranian news outlets have reported that Tehran may take serious steps in response to the Israeli attacks, including potentially suspending oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian officials have not confirmed these reports.Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced that the two-week truce covers the entire region, specifically mentioning Lebanon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that attacks against Lebanon would continue, despite the US-Iran agreement.Israel's recent assault on Lebanon has compounded the humanitarian and displacement crises, with over 1.2 million people forced to flee their homes. The attacks included a strike on a funeral in the Bekaa Valley town of Shmestar, killing at least 20 people. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the international community to intervene and end the aggressions.

The fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel faced a serious crisis on Wednesday as both sides presented conflicting accounts of the agreement. The development raised concerns about the potential collapse of the truce.Israel escalated its military operations in Lebanon, launching its heaviest attack yet on over 100 targets, resulting in at least 254 fatalities. This move directly contradicts the claims of Iran and Pakistan, who brokered the 11th-hour truce and asserted that the ceasefire included Lebanon.In response, Iran halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, citing an alleged Israeli breach of the ceasefire. The Fars news agency reported that oil prices had dropped sharply below $100 a barrel following the truce announcement, leading to a global stock market surge.The White House disputed Iran's claims about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the reports 'false' and stating that US President Donald Trump expected it to reopen 'immediately, quickly and safely.' The US signaled its continued adherence to the ceasefire, even as it threatened to unravel.Iran and the US have different interpretations of the agreement. Trump conveyed a version suggesting a 15-point proposal from the US, which included no enrichment of uranium and the destruction of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. In contrast, Iran's 10-point plan, which Trump initially referred to as a 'workable basis for negotiation,' included the right to enrich uranium and the full lifting of sanctions.The US and Iran are set to engage in talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend, with a US negotiating team led by Vice-President JD Vance. The talks aim to cement the ceasefire into a more durable peace agreement, but significant gaps remain to be bridged.The situation in the Gulf remains fragile, with the US and Israel claiming to have destroyed Iran's industrial base and significant military assets. Iran, on the other hand, portrays the truce as a victory, with senior politician Ali Akbar Velayati stating that 'America was forced to accept a ceasefire.'

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters that the United Kingdom has a "job" to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz after reports that the vital oil corridor was blocked again just hours after a tentative cease‑fire was announced. The leader arrived at the King Fahd airbase in Taif, Saudi Arabia, where he met with British and local staff before embarking on a broader diplomatic tour of Gulf allies. The visit mirrors his recent push to shape a cease‑fire framework for Ukraine. While officials describe the trip as complementary to the Pakistan‑mediated talks between Washington and Tehran, many Gulf observers see Starmer as a more predictable partner than a United‑States administration that has been criticised for its unpredictable stance. The cease‑fire, brokered barely an hour before a deadline set by the U.S. president, included a clause to reopen Hormuz. Starmer’s itinerary follows a UK‑led gathering of military planners that explored practical steps for achieving that goal. Iran’s state news agency, Fars, claimed that Israeli actions in Lebanon breached the cease‑fire, prompting a fresh blockage of oil tankers in the strait. Later on Wednesday, Starmer is scheduled to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Their agenda is expected to cover the removal of Iranian mines and the insurance of tankers that rely on the Hormuz route for global oil shipments. "There are many practicalities and moving parts involved; this cannot be switched on instantly," a UK official explained, underscoring the complexity of the task. Addressing the media at the airbase, Starmer acknowledged the temporary relief provided by the cease‑fire but warned that the situation remains in its early stages. He emphasized that the UK’s priority is a permanent solution that restores full maritime traffic. "The impact on our energy prices is evident – we have seen daily fluctuations over the past 39 days. It is our responsibility to ensure the strait remains open so that the world’s energy needs are met and UK fuel prices stabilise," he said. Starmer has previously drawn criticism from former President Donald Trump for refusing to back the initial U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran and for limiting U.S. use of British bases to defensive missions, such as targeting Iranian missile sites. When asked about the risk of the UK becoming entangled in the conflict, Starmer reiterated that Britain acts only in collective self‑defence and that his mandate is to protect British lives and national interests, which includes keeping Hormuz open. The remainder of his Gulf itinerary has not been disclosed, and it remains unclear which other regional capitals he will visit after Saudi Arabia. One government source summed up the mission: "The cease‑fire is welcome, but the decisive factor for the British public will be a fully operational Hormuz Strait, which will have the greatest impact on domestic energy costs." The source likened Starmer’s role to his earlier effort in assembling the "coalition of the willing" that pledged to back any peace settlement in Ukraine, noting that this is his first opportunity to demonstrate solidarity with Middle‑East allies.

Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

In a powerful display of dissent, hundreds of women took to the streets of Havana, Cuba's capital, to protest the de facto oil blockade imposed by the United States. The demonstration, which took place on what would have been the 96th birthday of Vilma Espin, a leader in the Cuban Revolution, saw protesters carrying banners and signs with the slogan 'Tumba el bloqueo' or 'Tear down the blockade'. The protesters are demanding an end to the US campaign that they say has caused widespread suffering and economic hardship.The protest was led by top officials in Cuba's communist government, including Deputy Prime Minister Ines Maria Chapman and Deputy Foreign Minister Josefina Vidal. Vidal denounced the US campaign as a form of collective punishment, stating that 'This policy of abuse has to stop. The Cuban people don't deserve this. It's the most comprehensive, all-encompassing, and longest-running system of coercive measures ever imposed against an entire country.'The US blockade has had a significant impact on Cuba's energy supply, with the country suffering at least two island-wide blackouts in the last month. The blockade has also led to food spoilage, water pumps ceasing to function, and medical patients going untreated. Russia has announced plans to send a second oil tanker to Cuba in defiance of the US blockade.The protest comes as the US and Cuba are in negotiations to lift the recent oil blockade. Deputy Foreign Minister Vidal stated that the talks are in a 'very preliminary' phase. The US blockade has been in place since the 1960s, but the current 'maximum pressure' campaign began under US President Donald Trump in his first term as president.

When the sanctioned Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin docked at Matanzas and off‑loaded roughly 700,000 barrels of crude, observers were left questioning why Washington had temporarily lifted its oil embargo on the island.Just weeks earlier, President Donald Trump had taken to social media to declare an end to any oil or cash flowing to Cuba. Yet, in a stark reversal, he later told reporters he had no objection to oil shipments reaching the country, allowing the Russian vessel to pass.Adding to the intrigue, Cuban authorities announced the release of 2,010 prisoners as a “humanitarian gesture” for Holy Week. Analysts quickly linked the pardons to the tanker’s arrival, interpreting both moves as evidence of ongoing, albeit secret, talks between Washington and Havana.The U.S. oil blockade has already pushed Cuba’s fragile economy to the brink: tourism has all but vanished after airlines from Canada, Russia, China and France withdrew, with Iberia set to exit by the end of May. Most petrol stations are shuttered and blackouts have become a daily reality.Population estimates now sit at 9.5 million, down from a pre‑crisis peak after a two‑million‑person exodus over the past five years. Citizens describe a systemic collapse of health, education and transport services.With official channels silent, Cubans are piecing together fragmented leaks—largely from the U.S. side—to gauge the direction of the negotiations.The dialogue pits Trump’s hard‑line rhetoric, which vows to “take” the island, against Cuba’s insistence that its political system is non‑negotiable.One diplomat suggested the tanker’s arrival could be a tactical humanitarian showcase, but also noted it might serve as a confidence‑building measure. The simultaneous prisoner release leans toward the latter interpretation.Professor William LeoGrande of American University observed that such reciprocal gestures often precede substantive diplomatic progress.Meanwhile, another Russian‑flagged tanker, the Sea Horse, carrying about 200,000 barrels, was sighted moving toward Venezuela, hinting at a coordinated “carrot” strategy aimed at both Havana and Caracas.Although oil alone is unlikely to compel the Cuban regime to relinquish power, the recent events suggest a more transactional pathway may be emerging.Since 2021, Cuba has nurtured a private sector of over 10,000 small‑ and medium‑sized enterprises (Mipymes), spawning a new class of affluent Cubans often tied to the regime and the army’s economic arm, Gaesa.Negotiations appear to be led by Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, a grandson of former President Raúl Castro and son of the late Gaesa chief Luis Rodríguez López‑Calleja.In a recent CNN interview, Fidel Castro’s grandson Sandro Castro, a 33‑year‑old influencer and businessman, argued that the majority of Cubans now favor a capitalist model over communism.His open criticism of President Miguel Díaz‑Canel—calling his performance “unsatisfactory”—would normally trigger state security action, yet appears tolerated, suggesting the U.S. may be leveraging Díaz‑Canel’s vulnerability in the talks.Analysts speculate a possible outcome where Cuba’s economy opens to foreign investment while senior Castros retain political influence, aligning with Trump’s expressed desire for a “friendly” transition reminiscent of recent moves in Venezuela.One senior diplomat in Havana noted that the United States might permit existing private businesses to continue operating, provided they also open markets to U.S. interests.The prospect of any Castro family member retaining authority is likely to provoke fierce opposition from hard‑line Cuban‑American groups, epitomized by figures like Marco Rubio, who have long advocated for the Castros’ removal.Perhaps the greatest concern remains the roughly 40 % of Cubans who are not part of the private sector and rely on state support; many are elderly and now face the very real threat of starvation.

Cuba’s government declared a humanitarian amnesty for 2,010 prisoners ahead of Easter’s Holy Week, a decision it says follows a careful review of each inmate’s conduct, health, and time served. The announcement, made by state media on Thursday, represents the second such amnesty this year and the fifth large‑scale pardon since 2011, bringing the total to more than 11,000 released individuals. While Havana officially denies acting under U.S. pressure, the timing aligns with what analysts describe as the most aggressive Washington campaign against the island in decades. The move comes a day after Cuba’s top diplomat in Washington invited the United States to assist in overhauling the island’s “crippled” economy, part of ongoing talks that have yet to produce concrete outcomes. U.S. officials, including President Trump’s administration, have repeatedly called for a change of government in the communist‑run state, with the president even musing about “taking” the island. Yet recent diplomatic exchanges suggest a nuanced shift: both sides have held talks, and scholars note that the amnesty could be a tangible sign of progress, however modest. University of Miami Cuban‑studies chair Michael Bustamante told AFP, “It seems not far‑fetched to think that this is a sign that some of the conversation between both governments is advancing… To where? Unclear.” He added that the political significance will depend on the profile of those released. The Cuban presidency did not disclose the names or crimes of the pardoned individuals, but indicated the group includes young people, women, and inmates over 60 who are slated for early release within the next six to twelve months. Foreign nationals and Cuban expatriates are also among those granted clemency. Importantly, the amnesty excludes anyone convicted of murder, sexual assault, drug‑related offenses, theft, illegal livestock slaughter, or crimes against state authority. Earlier in March, the government freed 51 prisoners as a “good‑will” gesture toward the Vatican, which often mediates between Washington and Havana. The current pardon is framed as part of the “humanitarian legacy of the Revolution” and is presented as customary practice during Holy Week. The release coincides with Russia’s announcement of a second oil tanker bound for Cuba, following a recent easing of the U.S. oil blockade that allowed the first shipment. Bustamante speculated that the timing may not be coincidental, suggesting a possible link between U.S. policy shifts and Cuba’s diplomatic overtures. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban‑American critic of Havana, reiterated on Fox News that Cuba’s economic woes cannot be solved without political reform, warning that the island faces “a lot of trouble.”