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The Prediction Platform's Meteoric Rise Polymarket, the online prediction platform that hosts bets on events such as the Iran war, is in talks to raise $400m (£296m) at a valuation of up to $15bn. This latest fundraising round would represent a significant two-thirds increase on the company's previous valuation, underscoring the rapid growth and increasing influence of prediction markets in the financial landscape. Geopolitical Betting Drives Platform Growth The company has gained notoriety in recent months over wagers placed on the Middle East conflict, including on the timing of US-Israel strikes against Iran, and on a US-Iran ceasefire, some of which appeared to bear signs of insider trading. During this period, Polymarket has experienced a massive increase in volume, with more than $1bn a week now traded on its platform. The platform operates on a commission-based fee structure, though geopolitical and world events markets are "fee-free." Financial Trajectory and Strategic Investments Polymarket's valuation has been increasing rapidly, having achieved a $1bn price tag in June last year after Peter Thiel's Founders Fund led a $200m round. This was followed months later by the owner of the New York stock exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, pledging $1bn at a valuation of $9bn. The NYSE's owner has since invested a further $600m in Polymarket, with plans to become a "global distributor" of the platform's data, using bets to provide "sentiment analysis" to investors. Datafeeds Reshaping Financial Markets Datafeeds from Polymarket and other online prediction markets have increasingly been shaping trades, including in oil markets. The platform's forecasts are being used by more traditional financial institutions to inform their strategies, creating a new intersection between prediction markets and conventional finance. This integration has raised questions about the potential for prediction markets to influence larger financial systems and whether they might create distortions in market behavior. Controversies and Regulatory Challenges Despite its growth, Polymarket has faced significant scrutiny. Numerous bets placed by anonymous accounts have given rise to speculation that people are taking advantage of insider information. The Israeli authorities earlier this year arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to make Polymarket bets. A Guardian investigation found that thousands of people in online communities are strategizing on how to profit from conflict through betting, with some attempting to pressure institutions to change their reporting to align with their wagers. The Future of Prediction Markets As prediction markets continue to gain mainstream acceptance, Polymarket's latest funding round signals growing confidence in the sector's potential. However, the platform faces ongoing challenges regarding regulatory oversight, market manipulation, and the ethical implications of monetizing predictions on sensitive geopolitical events. The increasing integration of Polymarket data into financial decision-making processes suggests that prediction markets are evolving from niche gambling platforms to influential data sources that could shape market behavior in increasingly significant ways.

Gout Gout has claimed the 100m national junior title in impressive fashion, crossing the line in 10.21sec with a legal tailwind of +0.5m/s at the Australian athletics junior championships in Brisbane.The 18-year-old athlete took time to find his rhythm before settling into his stride and overtaking the early leaders to secure the win. Gout left a significant gap between himself and the rest of the field, with Zavier Peacock finishing second in 10.35sec and Uwezo Lubenda third in 10.37sec.Gout expressed his satisfaction with the performance, stating, 'I didn’t have the best start, but I came out for the W [win], and I wanted to put on a show for the rest of the people watching.' He emphasized the importance of having fun and running as fast as possible.Following his victory, Gout is set to head overseas for his first senior athletics campaign, which includes a highly anticipated meet against Letsile Tebogo, the 200m Olympic champion, in a Diamond League event in Oslo. Additionally, Gout will train with Noah Lyles, the reigning 100m Olympic champion, in America.Gout's performance comes on the heels of Lachlan Kennedy becoming the first Australian to break the 10-second barrier for the 100m on home soil. Gout, however, chose not to target this milestone in the junior final, instead easing up 30 meters from the line.The Queenslander has a personal best of 10.00sec over 100m, set in a low-key season opener in February. He and Kennedy are both eyeing the national record of 9.93sec, held by Patrick Johnson since 2003.

Crystal Palace, once the 'hallowed turf' of British athletics, is on the verge of a major transformation. The stadium, which has hosted iconic athletes like Sir Mo Farah, Dave Bedford, and Steve Backley, had fallen into disrepair but is now set to be revitalized with a £130m redevelopment plan. The London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, announced the plans in May 2023, declaring Crystal Palace a 'national asset.' The proposed redevelopment includes a vastly upgraded 25,000-seat stadium that could open as early as 2030, along with a new 200m running track for community use. The journey to this point has been long and arduous. Jim Powell, a former sprint coach and founder of the Met-Track charity, recalls the despair that had settled over the venue years ago. 'There were trees growing out of the main stand and on the indoor track and no one was doing anything about it,' he says. The formation of the Crystal Palace Sports Partnership in 2014 marked a turning point, with Powell and others fighting to save the venue. 35,000 people signed a petition to reopen the site's swimming pools, which had been closed due to a leak. The partnership's efforts eventually led to the current redevelopment plans, with Morgan Sindell appointed as developers in 2024. The new sports centre will feature a padel centre, basketball courts, football pitches, and a full-size artificial multi-sports pitch. While the project is already fully funded, the search is on for commercial investment to complete the stadium bowl and boost its capacity from 16,000. Powell, who was given an MBE in 2013 for his services to athletics, is ecstatic about the plans. 'This is a historic and much-loved national sporting and community facility, where many UK sporting stars have started their careers and trained, but it needs major investment and refurbishment,' Khan said when the application was submitted. The potential return of big events like the Diamond League to Crystal Palace has Powell hopeful. 'It used to be the hallowed turf or the hallowed tartan,' he reminisces. 'If this new stadium doesn’t give athletics a shot in the arm, nothing will.'

BP has announced that it expects to post 'exceptional' earnings from its oil trading desk, capitalizing on the turbulent energy markets caused by the ongoing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran. The company's refining margins have strengthened, contributing to the optimistic forecast.The surge in oil prices is primarily attributed to the effective closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping route by Iran, a critical passage for global oil supplies. This development has led to Brent crude prices rising sharply from about $61 a barrel in January to a peak of $119.50 several weeks ago. As of Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $98.28 a barrel, still significantly higher than its January levels.The conflict has not only impacted oil prices but also affected global oil demand forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast, now predicting a decline in oil demand by 80,000 barrels a day this year, a stark contrast to its previous forecast of a 640,000 barrel increase. This would mark the first annual decline in oil demand since the 2020 Covid pandemic.In terms of production, BP expects its overall oil and gas production to remain broadly flat in the first quarter. However, the company has seen an improvement in refining margins, which rose to $16.9 a barrel in the first quarter from $15.2 a barrel in the previous quarter. This increase is expected to boost earnings from refined products by $100m to $200m.BP's update comes as its UK rival Shell also reported significantly higher oil trading profits for the quarter. Analysts have been revising their profit forecasts upward, with Citi raising its estimate for BP's adjusted net income to $2.6bn for the January to March quarter.New BP CEO Meg O'Neill, who took over this month, faces shareholders at the annual meeting on 23 April, where she is expected to discuss the company's strategy under her leadership, particularly its focus on oil and gas projects to enhance profitability.

Australian sprint prodigy Gout Gout stunned the athletics community on Sunday at the national championships in Sydney, clocking a legal 19.67 seconds over 200 m. The performance not only smashed his own previous national record of 20.02 seconds but also made him the first Australian to dip below the coveted 20‑second barrier. Gout’s coach and mentor, Di Sheppard, summed up the achievement with a wry grin: “How long’s a piece of string?” – a nod to the seemingly limitless potential the teenager now displays. The run placed Gout ahead of his compatriot Aidan Murphy, who finished a close second, and sparked immediate comparisons with Jamaican legend Usain Bolt. While Bolt’s all‑time best stands at 19.19 seconds (set in 2009), Gout’s 19.67 at the age of 18 already eclipses the Jamaican great’s performance at the same age, according to his camp. Only one other under‑20 athlete has ever posted a faster time – Erriyon Knighton – whose 2022 effort remains unratified after a subsequent ban. James Templeton, the 18‑year‑old’s manager, said the result was “thrilling but not shocking”, recalling that Gout ran 19.84 seconds the previous year with a marginal wind assistance, a time the team always considered his realistic benchmark. Gout himself has been fixated on breaking the sub‑20 mark ever since an illegal run earlier in his career. “I wrote down 19.75 and kept telling myself I’d hit it,” he explained. “Then I hit 19.67 – gotta love it.” Despite the historic run, the teenager shows no intention of slowing down. “I’ve just turned 18, so I definitely think I can go faster,” he said. “It’s about building consistency and there’s no pressure – I’m the only one out there.” Looking ahead, Gout will compete in the under‑20 junior championships this week, opting to skip the 200 m in Queensland and focus on the 100 m. He will then travel overseas for a high‑profile showdown with Olympic champion Noah Lyles over 150 m at the Golden Spike meet in Ostrava, scheduled for June. Should Gout continue his upward trajectory, the athletics world may soon witness a new challenger to Bolt’s long‑standing age‑group record, reshaping expectations for the next generation of sprint talent.

Gout Gout, an 18‑year‑old sprint prodigy, delivered a historic performance at the Australian Athletics Championships in Sydney, finishing the 200 m in 19.67 seconds. The time not only secured his victory but also established a new world Under‑20 record, surpassing the previous mark held by Erriyon Knighton. The achievement marks the first occasion an Australian has legally broken the 20‑second barrier in the 200 m, with a permissible tailwind of +1.7 m/s. Gout’s run also eclipses the age‑grade benchmark set by Usain Bolt, who recorded 19.93 seconds at 19 years old in 2004. Fellow countryman Aidan Murphy finished second, posting 19.88 seconds, making the two performances the fastest of the year. Both athletes benefited from the same legal wind assistance, underscoring a surge in Australian sprinting depth. Speaking at the Sydney Olympic Park Athletic Centre, Gout emphasized the competitive environment: "Competing with world‑class athletes in Australia pushes us to new limits. Having two Australians under 20 seconds is extraordinary." The record also improves on Gout’s own national best of 20.02 seconds set the previous season, and it is his first sub‑20‑second run under legal wind conditions. Last year he had recorded 19.84 seconds with a wind‑assisted tailwind. Gout’s rise began in 2024 when he ran 20.04 seconds at the Australian All Schools Athletics Championships, breaking Peter Norman’s long‑standing national record of 20.06 seconds from the 1968 Olympics. His rapid progression has drawn international attention, with analysts comparing his explosive style to that of Bolt. On the final day of the meet, Gout’s main rival, Lachlan Kennedy, withdrew from the 200 m to manage his workload, though he later claimed the 100 m title with a 9.96‑second dash, becoming the first Australian to break ten seconds on home soil. Born to South Sudanese immigrants, Gout’s background adds a compelling narrative to his athletic success, highlighting the multicultural fabric of Australian sport. With the world record now in his hands, Gout expressed confidence about his future: "Running this time legally lifts a huge weight off my shoulders. I’m ready for the next challenges."

In a dramatic climax to the men’s 200m final at the Sydney Olympic Park Athletic Centre, Gout Gout crossed the line in 19.67 seconds, eclipsing the previous Australian record of 20.02 seconds and becoming the first Australian to break the 20‑second barrier under legal wind conditions. Gout entered the race after posting a solid 20.11‑second heat, despite gusty, autumn‑like weather that had turned the track into a testing ground for speed. Early in the straight, he was shadowed by Aidan Murphy, the 22‑year‑old former national 200m champion whose personal best of 20.41 seconds suggested he could challenge the favourite. For most of the race the two athletes ran side‑by‑side, with Murphy refusing to fade. Gout eventually found his top‑end speed, pulling ahead to claim his second national title, but the margin was tighter than many pundits had anticipated. When the official time appeared—19.68 seconds—the stadium fell silent. A quick review adjusted it to 19.67 seconds with a tailwind measured at 1.7 m/s, comfortably within the legal limit. The result not only beat his own illegal 19.84‑second run from the previous year but also outpaced the best under‑20 performance ever recorded, aside from an unratified mark by Erriyon Knighton. Analysts noted that the time would have secured a bronze medal at the Paris 2024 Olympics and would have been fast enough for gold at the Sydney 2000 Games—faster than Usain Bolt ever ran at the same age. The performance therefore cements Gout’s status as a genuine global contender and fuels expectations for the upcoming Brisbane 2032 and Los Angeles 2028 Games. After the finish, Gout celebrated exuberantly, his arms aloft as manager James Templeton looked on, while Murphy, who finished just 0.21 seconds behind, quietly exited the track, having delivered the second‑fastest Australian 200m ever. The event was steeped in symbolism: the track had hosted the 2000 Olympic Games, the iconic Stadium Australia roof loomed overhead, and Gout stood on a dais bearing the vintage Sydney 2000 logo, underscoring the link between past glory and future ambition. With this landmark run, Gout Gout has not only rewritten the Australian sprint record books but also signalled that the nation’s sprinting renaissance is well underway, promising thrilling chapters ahead for Australian athletics.

Gout Gout, the 18-year-old sprint phenomenon, has made history by smashing his own national 200m record with a remarkable time of 19.67sec at the Australian Athletics Championships in Sydney. This achievement marks him as the first Australian to break the 20-second barrier in legal conditions.Previously, Gout held the national record with a time of 20.02sec and had run a wind-assisted 19.84sec (+2.2m/s) at the same championships last year. However, his recent performance has eclipsed both previous records, showcasing his exceptional speed and endurance.Gout's victory was closely contested, with Aidan Murphy pushing him deeply into the straight, finishing with a commendable 19.88sec and a tailwind of +1.7m/s. This performance by Murphy is notable as it ranks as the second-best 200m time by an Australian.The event saw a significant moment as Lachlan Kennedy, the 100m champion, withdrew from the 200m event on Sunday morning. Kennedy's absence meant that fans missed a highly anticipated rematch between him and Gout Gout, which was expected to be a highlight of the championships.Gout's achievement is all the more impressive considering he finished school at the end of last year to focus full-time on training. His dedication appears to be paying off, as he mentioned, “I definitely think the training’s been working, and the training’s been proving to me that I can run fast.”This record-breaking performance has catapulted Gout into the top 20 fastest 200m runners of all time, demonstrating his potential for future international competitions.

Cardiff Airport has emerged victorious in a legal challenge brought by Bristol Airport over a £205m subsidy package from the Welsh government. The Competition Appeal Tribunal's unanimous decision on Tuesday dismissed Bristol Airport's case, which argued that the subsidy distorted the market and breached the Subsidy Control Act.The Welsh government had announced the subsidy in April last year, with approximately half earmarked for developing new routes and the rest for maintenance facilities, hangars, and cargo capacity. Bristol Airport had claimed that the subsidy was unprecedented in the UK aviation industry and a breach of competition rules.The £205m subsidy is part of a decade-long plan to support Cardiff Airport, which has struggled to turn a profit since its nationalization in 2013. Despite £200m in bailouts, passenger numbers at Cardiff Airport have not recovered from the Covid pandemic, with 963,000 customers passing through in 2025, compared to a peak of 2 million in 2007.Bristol Airport expressed disappointment with the tribunal's decision, stating that it would study the ruling in detail before deciding on next steps. The company argued that the subsidy placed a burden on taxpayers and that the flexibility given by the Subsidy Control Act introduced after Brexit allowed the subsidy to proceed.The Welsh government welcomed the decision, hoping that both Cardiff and Bristol airports would continue to thrive and grow. The feud between the airports has been ongoing since 2013, when the Welsh government purchased Cardiff Airport for £52m, well above market value.